Morning Digest: Democrats keep obliterating the GOP in fundraising and spending
Morning Digest: Democrats keep obliterating the GOP in fundraising and spending
Democratic candidates for Congress have raised an eye-popping $1.6 billion
Leading Off
Independent Expenditures & Fundraising
Democrats continue to outraise Republicans by huge margins in congressional races as the party's top House super PAC swamps its rivals in late spending.
In new FEC reports covering the first 16 days of October compiled by The Downballot, Democrats picked up right where they left off at the end of the third quarter. Collectively, their candidates for the Senate and House raised another $103 million, compared to $58 million for their GOP opponents, a split of 64% to 34%. Democrats also spent far more, $197 million to $128 million.
Zooming out to take stock of the entire election cycle, Democrats have enjoyed a considerable advantage. Going back to Jan. 1 of last year, Democrats on the November ballot have brought in more than $1.6 billion (yes, with a b), compared to $1.1 billion for Republicans. (Note that these figures exclude candidates who lost primaries or dropped out.)
Spending has been just as lopsided, with Democrats deploying $1.4 billion and Republicans $930 million—a ratio of 3-to-2. That includes money spent on primaries, but those impact both parties in the same way, and in any event, most campaign funds are spent on the general election. What's more, Democrats had more cash in the bank for the final stretch, with $397 million stockpiled versus $318 million for the GOP.
The gap is even vaster, though, because none of this includes spending by third-party outfits, where Democrats are also swamping Republicans. That's vividly illustrated in the latest update to The Downballot's database tracking spending by the four largest groups involved in House races, where one organization now towers above the rest.
That's the House Majority PAC, the massive pro-Democratic super PAC, which just spent an astounding $83 million on 47 different races over the past week. Its single biggest expenditure, aimed at helping Democrat George Whitesides unseat Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in California's 27th District, weighed in at a whopping $4.8 million.
By contrast, its Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, laid out $40 million across 37 districts. And in a stark demonstration of the dominance of super PACs in the post-Citizens United world, both parties' official campaign arms were far behind, with the NRCC putting in $9.5 million and the DCCC $6 million during the last week.
It all adds up to yet another lopsided Democratic advantage. To date, HMP and the DCCC have shelled out $254 million, while CLF and the NRCC have combined for $206 million. It also shows just how much of a junior partner the NRCC has become: While HMP has spent about twice as much as the DCCC, CLF has spent around four times as much as the NRCC.
Nor will Republicans be able to close the gap in the final week. As of Oct. 16, the two big Democratic groups still had almost $142 million on hand while the Republican side had just under $119 million.
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Voting
Washington
Hundreds of ballots deposited in a drop box in Vancouver, Washington, were damaged in a suspected arson attack on Monday morning. If you cast your ballot at this drop box, located at the Fisher's Landing Transit Center, contact the Clark County Auditor's office to request a replacement. If you know someone who might have voted there, please urge them to check the status of their ballot on the secretary of state's website.
Another fire was also set at a drop box in nearby Portland, Oregon. However, only three ballots were damaged, and officials said they would contact the affected voters using unique identifiers on their ballots.
House
AL-02
AdImpact reported Friday that the DCCC and Democrat Shomari Figures are spending at least $267,000 on their first joint ad buy in Alabama's open 2nd District, a constituency that was redrawn this cycle by a federal court. Figures faces Republican Caroleene Dobson for a seat in the Montgomery area that Joe Biden would have carried 56-43 under the new lines.
NV-01, NV-03, NV-04, WI-01
The House Majority PAC finalized its triage of several races, canceling its remaining reservations for all three potentially competitive House elections in Nevada and a contest in southeastern Wisconsin.
HMP has canceled all of its bookings in Las Vegas, reports AdImpact, which amounted to about $3.5 million, according to The Downballot's tracker. The PAC had already cut a similar amount about a week ago, signaling that the Democratic incumbents in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th Districts were all in good shape for reelection. As AdImpact notes, that means HMP likely won't spend a single dollar on the airwaves in Nevada this cycle after spending more than $11 million two years ago.
The group's other move comes in Wisconsin's 1st District, where D.C. Democrats had hoped they might unseat Republican Rep. Bryan Steil after recruiting former Rep. Peter Barca, who briefly represented a predecessor of this seat 30 years ago.
But those hopes appear to have faded, as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Lawrence Andrea reports that HMP has canceled the $1 million reservation it still had on the books. The decision was not a surprise, though, because the PAC cut the same sum a week earlier.
You can stay on top of all of these late moves by bookmarking The Downballot's House race triage tracker.
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Other Races
Oregon
The Northwest Progressive Institute has released the first statewide poll we've seen of Oregon since July—and potentially the last we'll see this cycle—giving us a rare look at some of the Beaver State's most notable contests.
The poll, which was conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling from Oct. 16-17, finds that Democrats hold single-digit leads for three open statewide offices even as Kamala Harris outpaces Donald Trump 52-40.
The closest of these elections is the race to succeed termed-out Democrat Tobias Read as treasurer, where Democrat Elizabeth Steiner, a physician and former state senator, posts a 42-38 advantage over Republican Brian Boquist, a current member of the state Senate. However, a significant 16% remain undecided.
Meanwhile, in the race to replace retiring Democratic Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum, former state House Speaker Dan Rayfield outpaces Republican attorney Will Lathrop 46-41.
Read, for his part, holds a comparable 44-38 advantage over Republican state Sen. Dennis Linthicum in the contest for secretary of state. This office is held LaVonne Griffin-Valade, who was appointed to her role after her predecessor and fellow Democrat, Shemia Fagan, resigned amid a scandal.
PPP also takes a look at several statewide ballot measures, including a trio of high-profile questions we've previously written about. The poll finds a bare 41-40 plurality in favor of Measure 117, which would institute a ranked-choice voting system for both partisan primaries and general elections in statewide and congressional races. The close race comes even though Measure 117's opponents have raised almost no money to overcome the multi-million effort to pass it.
A 53-24 majority, by contrast, gives the thumbs up to Measure 115, which would allow the legislature to impeach statewide elected officials. A similar 54-29 proportion, though, opposes Measure 118, which would increase corporate taxes so that the state could distribute around $1,600 to every resident. Oregon Public Radio wrote last week that the campaign to beat the plan has outraised its proponents by a massive $15 million to $640,000 spread.
Poll Pile
AZ-Sen: TrueDot Polling for the University of Arizona: Ruben Gallego (D): 51, Kari Lake (R): 36 (46-45 Harris)
FL-Sen: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics: Rick Scott (R-inc): 49, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 46 (50-45 Trump)
NE-Sen-A: Siena College for the New York Times: Deb Fischer (R-inc): 48, Dan Osborn (i): 46 (53-39 Trump)
PA-Sen: North Star Opinion Research (R) for American Greatness: Bob Casey (D-inc): 45, Dave McCormick (R): 42 (47-47 presidential tie) (July: 49-41 Casey)
TX-Sen: Siena: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 50, Colin Allred (D): 46 (51-40 Trump) (early Oct.: 48-44 Cruz)
TX-Sen: GBAO (D) for Colin Allred: Cruz (R-inc): 46, Allred (D): 46 (unreleased early Oct. poll: 46-44 Cruz)
WI-Sen: Suffolk University for USA Today: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 46, Eric Hovde (R): 44 (48-47 Trump)
AZ Ballot: TrueDot: Abortion amendment: Yes: 55, No: 37
AZ Ballot: TrueDot: Authorize arrests of unlawful border crossers: Yes: 67, No: 29
FL Ballot: St. Pete Polls: Abortion amendment: Yes: 54, No: 38 (note: needs 60% to pass)
Ad Roundup
AZ-Sen: Kari Lake (R) - anti-Ruben Gallego (D) (here and here)
FL-Sen: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - anti-Rick Scott (R-inc) (here, here, and here)
NM-Sen: Nella Domenici (R) - anti-Martin Heinrich (D-inc)
OH-Sen: SMART TD PAC - pro-Sherrod Brown (D-inc)
TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) and the DSCC - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc); Win It Back PAC (Club for Growth affiliate) - anti-Allred
VA-Sen: Hung Cao (R)
WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) - anti-Eric Hovde (R)
IN-Gov: Jennifer McCormick (D) - anti-Mike Braun (R)
NH-Gov: Joyce Craig (D) - anti-Kelly Ayotte (R)
AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc); Congressional Leadership Fund - pro-Ciscomani
CA-45: CLF - anti-Derek Tran (D)
CA-49: Matt Gunderson (R) - anti-Mike Levin (D-inc)
CO-08: CLF - anti-Yadira Caraveo (D-inc)
CT-05: George Logan (R)
IA-03: CLF - anti-Lanon Baccam (D)
MI-07: CLF - anti-Curtis Hertel (D)
NC-01: CLF - anti-Don Davis (D-inc)
NE-02: DCCC - anti-Don Bacon (R-inc)
NJ-07: CLF - anti-Sue Altman (D)
NY-04: CLF - anti-Laura Gillen (D)
OH-09: Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)
OH-13: CLF - anti-Emilia Sykes (D-inc)
TX-34: CLF - anti-Vicente Gonzalez (D-inc) (in Spanish)
WA-04: Jerrod Sessler (R) - anti-Dan Newhouse (R-inc)
WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (R-inc)
FL Ballot: Vote No On 3 - anti-marijuana amendment (here and here)
FL Ballot: Yes On 4 Florida - pro-abortion amendment (in Spanish)
SD Ballot: Dakotans for Health - pro-abortion amendment
*checks calendar*
Holy cow! One week until Election Day!
Imho, the House Majority PAC ought to take the money it’s saving in Nevada by cancelling ads in those three House races and spend out ads encouraging people to VOTE! Democrats are dangerously behind in Clark and Washoe counties. Unless there is a trove of Mail Ballots that are just sitting somewhere, this could spell trouble.
Although it could well indicate that Democrats, to a much larger extent than previously, are waiting until Election Day... As ProudNewEnglander points out, there was a thorough debate about Nevada in yesterday’s DownBallot Digest.