Welcome to the very first edition of The Downballot Morning Digest!

Today's big story: The Ohio GOP tries to thwart redistricting reform with some extremely deceptive ballot language

Supporters of an Ohio amendment to end gerrymandering (credit: Citizens Not Politicians)

Leading Off

OH Ballot

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and his fellow Republicans on the state's Ballot Board voted along party lines on Friday to adopt a deceptive ballot summary for an initiative that would amend the state constitution to end gerrymandering.

The GOP's language would turn the amendment's purpose on its head, prompting a pledge to sue from supporters of redistricting reform. The deadline to finalize the ballot language, however, is quickly approaching, and the Republican majority on the Ohio Supreme Court poses yet another potential obstacle for reformers.

If the GOP's summary stands, Ohioans would be asked to vote "yes" or "no" on an amendment to "[r]epeal constitutional protections against gerrymandering approved by nearly three-quarters of Ohio electors participating in the statewide elections of 2015 and 2018." The summary further claims the measure would "eliminate the longstanding ability of Ohio citizens to hold their representatives accountable for establishing fair state legislative and congressional districts."

Those 2015 and 2018 amendments, however, did little to stop the GOP from enacting gerrymandered maps. Those earlier measures were put on the ballot by Republican lawmakers to undermine voter-led efforts at reform and contained major loopholes designed to allow continued gerrymandering.

As a result, voters have been unable to "hold their representatives accountable" for their redistricting decisions: Republicans have won supermajorities in the legislature in every election for more than a decade, regardless of voters' overall preferences statewide. They even managed to do so in 2012, when Democratic candidates for the state House won a majority of the vote.

The GOP's ballot language also claims that a new redistricting commission would be "required to gerrymander the boundaries of state legislative and congressional districts"—an attempt to invert the amendment's mandate of partisan neutrality.

That mandate specifies that, if at all possible while complying with other legal requirements, the proportion of districts favoring each party may not vary by more than 3 percentage points from the party's statewide support based on recent statewide elections. The effect is to ensure precisely the opposite of partisan political gerrymandering, which allows map-makers to draw lines that give their party a far greater proportion of seats compared to their share of the total vote.

Unlike the previous amendments, whose loopholes Republicans readily exploited, this new proposal would remove elected legislative and executive branch officials from the redistricting process entirely. Instead, it would create a citizens' commission with five Democrats, five Republicans, and five unaffiliated members. Several restrictions would limit who could serve on the commission, and the panel would need cross-partisan support to pass new maps.

This is not the first time that LaRose and his fellow Republicans have tried to hobble an amendment they oppose by promulgating biased language. Last year, they rewrote the summary for a proposed measure to guarantee the right to an abortion that, among other things, replaced the word "fetus" with "unborn child" and told voters the amendment would "allow an unborn child to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy."

Reproductive rights advocates took the matter to the state Supreme Court but were largely rebuffed, leaving LaRose's ballot summary almost entirely unchanged. Voters, however, were not fooled and approved the amendment by a decisive 57-43 margin.

Senate

NJ-Sen

New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez officially ended his campaign to keep his seat as an independent on Friday by removing his name from the general election ballot, a move that came on the final day candidates could withdraw. Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy also announced earlier the same day that he would appoint his former chief of staff, George Helmy, to replace Menendez for the remaining months of the 118th Congress after the convicted senator's resignation takes effect on Tuesday. 

Menendez, who remains a member of the Democratic caucus, said earlier this year that he wanted to run as an "independent Democrat" if his federal corruption trial resulted in his "exoneration," but those hopes were dashed last month when a jury found him guilty on all 16 counts. The senator later announced his resignation, but he waited until Friday to confirm that he was also ending what was left of his reelection effort.

Rep. Andy Kim, who won the Democratic primary in June, is favored to defeat Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw in November for a full six-year term. New Jersey hasn't elected a GOP senator since moderate Republican Clifford Case secured his final term in 1972, and this dark blue state is unlikely to break its streak this year.

Governors

DE-Gov

A super PAC that's been running ads against Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long ahead of Delaware's Sept. 10 Democratic primary for governor has released an internal poll from Slingshot Strategies that shows her trailing New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer 27-23 ahead of next month's contest.

According to the survey, another 11% back National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara, while a 31% plurality are undecided. (An additional 7% opt for an unnamed "someone else" even though the named candidates are the only options on the ballot.) Whoever wins the nomination to replace termed-out Democratic Gov. John Carney, who supports Hall-Long, will be favored in the general election to lead this reliably blue state.

The PAC that sponsored the poll, Citizens for a New Delaware Way, previously released a survey from Slingshot conducted in early July that showed Hall-Long and Meyer deadlocked 27-27, with O'Mara at 7%. The group argues that Hall-Long lost support over the last month because of its ad campaign attacking the lieutenant governor, as well as a series of news stories suggesting she repeatedly violated state campaign finance law.

We've seen two other polls conducted in recent weeks, but they've painted different pictures. A mid-July Public Policy Polling survey for Hall-Long's allies at the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association showed her beating Meyer 31-19, while early August numbers from Concord Public Opinion Partners on behalf of Education Reform Now Advocacy showed Meyer ahead 30-23. (It is unclear if ERNA, which supports charter schools, has a specific rooting interest in this contest.) Both releases also found O'Mara taking just shy of 10% of the vote.

NH-Gov

A new survey from Saint Anselm College of New Hampshire's Sept. 10 primaries gives us a rare look at each party's contest in the seldom-polled race to succeed retiring Republican Gov. Chris Sununu.

On the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig posts a 37-28 advantage over Cinde Warmington, who is a member of the state's unique and influential Executive Council. Another 31% of respondents remain undecided, though, with almost a month to go.

In the Republican primary, meanwhile, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte enjoys a wide 59-25 advantage over former state Senate President Chuck Morse. Ayotte, who narrowly lost reelection in 2016 to then-Gov. Maggie Hassan, decisively outraised Morse through mid-June and picked up Sununu's endorsement earlier this month.

Morse, who had the governor's support when he unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination to take on Hassan in 2022, responded to the slight by highlighting past criticisms both Sununu and Ayotte had leveled at Donald Trump, but the GOP's supreme master has yet to take sides here.

That continuing neutrality is unwelcome news for Morse's quest to regain the office he held for all of two days in January of 2017 after Hassan joined the Senate and Sununu waited for his own term to begin. That exceptionally brief turn at the top came about because New Hampshire has no lieutenant governor and instead puts the leader of the state Senate first in the line of succession.

House

AZ-01, CA-45, PA-10

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the official campaign arm of House Democrats, released a trio of internal polls on Friday showing its candidates in tight races with their Republican opponents.

In Arizona's 1st District, Impact Research sees GOP Rep. David Schweikert deadlocked 48-48 with former state Rep. Amish Shah, who won a competitive Democratic primary just before the DCCC's poll went into the field. This is the first survey we've seen of the general election for this competitive constituency, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale.

Joe Biden carried the 1st District 50-49 in 2020. (All 2020 presidential results for House districts have been recalculated for the district lines that will be used in 2024.) However, the memo for this poll, as well as those for the two races below, did not mention how voters in the district plan to vote in this year's presidential race.

Over in California's 45th District, pollster Normington Petts likewise shows GOP Rep. Michelle Steel tied 47-47 against her Democratic foe, attorney Derek Tran. The only previous data we've seen for this seat in western Orange County came in an early June internal poll for Tran from Tulchin Research that placed Steel ahead by a small 42-41 margin. 

Biden prevailed 52-46 here four years ago, but many voters in this one-time GOP bastion still frequently back Republicans further down the ballot even as they’ve become more open to supporting Democrats at the top of the ticket.

Finally, an Upswing Research survey of Pennsylvania's 10th finds the Democratic nominee, former TV news anchor Janelle Stelson, with a 48-47 advantage over Republican Rep. Scott Perry, who is one of the most prominent election deniers in Congress. The last poll we saw here was an independent survey from Franklin & Marshall College in early June that placed Perry ahead 45-44.

Donald Trump in 2020 scored a 51-47 victory in this district, which includes the state capital of Harrisburg and the nearby York area. Democrats, though, got some welcome news last year when the party took control of the Board of Commissioners in Harrisburg's Dauphin County for the first time since at least 1919—and possibly ever—a result they're hoping will set the stage for more gains this fall.

NH-01

In addition to its survey of New Hampshire's gubernatorial race (see our NH-Gov item above), Saint Anselm also checked in on the primaries for the state's two congressional seats, but many voters have yet to make up their minds.

In the Sept. 10 GOP primary to take on Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire's light blue 1st District, the school finds a hefty 59% majority saying they're undecided. 

When it comes to the actual candidates running to represent this swath of eastern New Hampshire, Manchester Alderman Joe Kelly Levasseur holds a 15-10 lead over former Executive Councilor Russell Prescott, with another 9% picking businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky. A fourth Republican, businessman Chris Bright, secures another 5%.

Both Levasseur and Prescott have long histories in Granite State politics. Levasseur, who was first elected to his post in 2011, has remained in office despite numerous Trump-like outbursts, including a 2013 incident in which the chief of police accused him of calling officers "dopes, clowns, jerks, buffoons." He was later censured by his colleagues after the state's attorney general concluded he'd made "unfounded" claims about officers allegedly trying to intimidate him.

Voters in Manchester have continued to reelect Levasseur, whose post is elected citywide, but his many attempts to win other offices have almost always gone poorly. These include a 2016 bid against Pappas for his seat on the state's unique Executive Council that ended in a 49-46 defeat, and a failed 2022 campaign for a spot in the 400-member state House.

Prescott, for his part, has a political career going back decades that includes three campaigns in the 2000s against Maggie Hassan, a Democrat who is now the state's junior U.S. senator. Prescott narrowly defeated her in his 2002 reelection campaign for the state Senate, but Hassan won a tight rematch two years later. Prescott stormed back during the 2010 red wave and unseated Hassan, but the Democrat ended any talk of a fourth bout by successfully running for governor in 2012.

Prescott made the jump to the Executive Council in 2016 and narrowly won reelection two years later before retiring in 2020. He decided to relaunch his career last cycle by challenging Pappas for the House, but he ended up taking fourth place in the GOP primary with just 10% of the vote.

Pappas' constituency was once one of the most politically volatile seats in the entire nation, but it's become more friendly for Democrats over the last few years. Joe Biden carried the 1st District 52-46 in 2020, while Pappas won his most recent campaign 54-46 against Karoline Leavitt, the election denier who beat Prescott in the primary. Leavitt is now a top spokesperson for the Trump campaign.

National Democrats, though, aren't treating Pappas as a shoo-in for a fourth term. House Majority PAC, a top Democratic super PAC, has reserved more than $4 million in ad time in the media markets that cover the 1st District, though some of that money could instead be used to defend the more liberal 2nd District if needed. Major GOP groups, however, have yet to book any TV time here.

NH-02

Saint Anselm College also polled both parties' Sept. 10 primaries for the 2nd District, where Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster is retiring after six terms representing western and northern New Hampshire.

On the Democratic side, the school shows former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander with a 41-31 advantage over former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, who has Kuster's endorsement. A poll conducted a month ago by GQR for Goodlander's allies at EMILYs List gave her a 43-27 advantage over Van Ostern, who narrowly lost the 2016 general election for governor to Republican Chris Sununu.

Saint Anselm, meanwhile, finds that 57% of Republicans are undecided about who their nominee should be, and the minority of voters who have made up their minds aren't unifying around a single option.

The poll sees a 16-16 deadlock between Lily Tang Williams, who was the 2016 Libertarian Party nominee for Senate—in Colorado—and businessman Vikram Mansharamani, with another businessman, Bill Hamlen, at 6%. Williams took third place in the 2022 primary for this seat, while Mansharamani finished fourth in that year's primary for the U.S. Senate.

The 2nd District, which is home to Nashua and the state capital of Concord, favored Joe Biden 54-45 in 2020.

Ballot Measures

AZ Ballot

An Arizona court has ruled that a campaign to change the state's electoral system submitted 536,000 valid signatures from voters, well over the 384,000 required to put the constitutional amendment on November's ballot. However, opponents are still waging further legal challenges, which must be resolved by the state's Aug. 22 deadline to finalize measures for the ballot.

If the amendment, which would be numbered Proposition 140, qualifies and wins voter approval this fall, it would abolish partisan primaries starting in 2026. Instead, all candidates regardless of party would run on a single primary ballot, though the measure does not specify how many would advance to the November general election.

The exact number, which could range from two to five candidates, would depend on a decision by the governor, currently Democrat Katie Hobbs, and the legislature, which is presently controlled by Republicans. It could also vary from race to race, since they could choose different numbers for different posts. If three or more contenders are allowed to move forward, then a form of ranked-choice voting would be used to determine the winner.

If, however, these leaders fail to agree on election procedures by Nov. 1, 2025, the secretary of state―a post currently held by Democrat Adrian Fontes―would step in to decide.

Republican lawmakers, who oppose this voter-initiated proposal and ranked-choice voting more generally, have placed their own amendment on November's ballot that would require separate party primaries. If both the GOP's Proposition 133 and Proposition 140 were to pass, only the amendment with the most "yes" votes would go into effect.

CA Ballot

UC Berkeley's new poll for the Los Angeles Times finds a 56-23 majority of California voters in favor of an initiative that would increase the punishment for several crimes related to drug possession and theft whose penalties were reduced a decade ago. This new plan, which will be identified on the ballot as Proposition 36, would roll back parts of Proposition 47, the 2014 measure that has drawn fire from the California District Attorneys Association and big-box retailers.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and fellow Democratic leaders in the legislature are urging a "no" vote on what they've called a "draconian" proposal to increase penalties for many non-violent crimes. 

Newsom predicted last month that if the measure passes, it would increase the prison population "by tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, over the next decade at a profound cost to the taxpayers." The governor signed several bills on Friday to combat retail theft and other crimes in the hopes of dissuading voters from passing Proposition 36.

Several notable Democrats, however, aren't convinced. San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and San Francisco Mayor London Breed are all urging a "yes" vote.

"Many of us supported Prop. 47. I certainly did," Mahan argued Thursday. "But it needs to be reformed because we went from mass incarceration to a massive failure of accountability. And what we really need is mass treatment."

Poll Pile

For a poll to be included in the Morning Digest, we require several pieces of information about each survey. These include, but are not limited to, the name of the pollster, the survey's sample size, and the dates the poll was conducted. You can read more about these requirements and others in this explainer.

• AZ-Sen: WPA Intelligence (R) for the Club for Growth: Ruben Gallego (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 46

• AZ-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Gallego (D): 51, Lake (R): 42 (50-45 Harris in two-way, 47-43 Harris with third-party candidates) (May: 46-43 Gallego)

• MT-Sen: RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute: Jon Tester (D-inc): 49, Tim Sheehy (R): 44 (57-39 Trump with third-party candidates)

• NV-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 49, Sam Brown (R): 40 (48-47 Trump in two-way, 46-44 Trump with third-party candidates) (May: 41-41 Senate tie)

• WI-Sen: TIPP Insights (R) for American Greatness: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Eric Hovde (R): 43 (47-47 presidential tie in two-way, 46-45 Harris with third-party candidates)

• NC-Gov: Siena College for the New York Times: Josh Stein (D): 49, Mark Robinson (R): 39 (49-47 Harris in two-way, 46-44 Harris with third-party candidates) 

We also include additional notes on polls when warranted. Regarding the Montana Senate poll, the Napolitan Institute is a foundation run by longtime pollster Scott Rasmussen, who also leads RMG Research. Rasmussen is not affiliated with Rasmussen Reports, the company he founded. Since Rasmussen's 2013 departure, Rasmussen Reports has become a purveyor of far-right election conspiracy theories.

Ad Roundup

Our ad roundup features television ads airing in competitive races, both from candidates and from third-party groups.

• AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D)

• MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D-inc) - anti-Tim Sheehy (R)

• WI-Sen: Project 72 WI - pro-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc); Restoration PAC - anti-Baldwin (part of $3 million buy)

• MI-07: Curtis Hertel (D)

• NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R-inc)