Morning Digest: As we launch our new House spending tracker, the GOP fears it's falling short

Democrats have a wide financial advantage, and it's only likely to grow

Democrats are spending early to beat Republican Derek Merrin in Ohio (credit: DCCC ad screenshot)

Leading Off

Independent Expenditures

With Labor Day now behind us, spending on downballot contests is about to kick into high gear—and Republicans are already fretting that they won't be able to keep up. That makes this the perfect time to unveil our new database tracking independent expenditures in battleground House races.

Our chart totals up spending from what we've termed the "Big Four" House groups: each party's official campaign committee as well as its super PAC counterpart that's closely tied to leadership. For Democrats, those are the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the House Majority PAC, while for the GOP, it's the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund.

CLF seems particularly concerned about its ability to match its Democratic foes, according to a new report from Politico's Ally Mutnick. The PAC's president reportedly told attendees at a GOP retreat in Wyoming last month that he needs $35 million more from donors to stay competitive.

"CLF is doing great. But they can only withstand so much disparity," one anonymous staffer for a member of House Republican leadership told Mutnick. "There's a breaking point where they can't make up that gap."

That disparity, though, only looks poised to grow: Kamala Harris' campaign and the DNC announced on Tuesday that they would send $25 million to various Democratic committees focused on downballot races, including $10 million to the DCCC. In a statement, the Harris campaign called it "the largest transfer ever in a presidential cycle," and Politico's Jessica Piper noted that the move comes much earlier than similar efforts in previous years.

If CLF can't close the gulf that Republicans face, it's unlikely anyone else can. Many other organizations also engage in outside spending in House races, but taken together, the "Big Four" dwarf all the rest. In 2022, for instance, they were responsible for 59% of all independent expenditures in the fight for control of the House, collectively deploying more than $550 million. A similar pattern is certain to hold this cycle.

The spending decisions these four groups make are the best guide to understanding which elections both parties see as the most competitive, since they're guided by private polls and reams of other data that aren't available to the public.

Of course, those decisions are never perfect. Sometimes even those with access to the most money and the best polling make mistakes. (Just ask Tim Walz: He won his last congressional race, which drew zero dollars in outside spending, by less than 1%—a close scrape no one saw coming.) Upsets can and will happen.

But by their nature, upsets are rare, so you can expect that almost all of the House seats that wind up changing hands will see some form of intervention by the Big Four. That's why we'll update this tracker each week to stay on top of how the battlefield is evolving.

We already have a good sense of what those front lines look like thanks to the TV ad reservations these groups have already announced. We've been tracking those as well, including a new batch from the CLF that Punchbowl reported on Tuesday, but at this point, actual spending will loom larger. As we've noted before, reservations can always be canceled or changed, but once you actually start spending, you are quite literally putting your money where your mouth is.

So far, total spending is quite small: just shy of $3 million from Democrats and barely more than a quarter million from Republicans. The biggest outlay to date has come from the DCCC, which has spent nearly $1 million boosting Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio's 9th District and slamming her Republican opponent, Derek Merrin.

Those numbers are certain to grow dramatically, though, and those earlier bookings tell us that the DCCC and HMP are on track to outspend the NRCC and CLF by a considerable margin. And that doesn't include spending by individual House candidates, where Democrats also have a considerable edge: At the end of June, Democrats had a collective cash advantage of $412 million to $317 million.

Senate

NE-Sen, NE-02, NE Ballot

The election analysis site Split Ticket has commissioned a poll of Nebraska from SurveyUSA, giving us a rare look at several of the Cornhusker State's key races.

In the race for a full six-year term in the Senate, Republican incumbent Deb Fischer posts a skinny 39-38 lead over independent Dan Osborn even as Donald Trump enjoys a 54-37 advantage over Kamala Harris. A mid-August Osborn internal from YouGov showed Fischer with a similar 43-41 advantage in a race where Democrats are not fielding a candidate.

While major Republican outside groups still are not treating Osborn, who has avoided saying which party he'd caucus with, as a threat in this dark red state, Democratic donors are taking him more seriously. The Sixteen Thirty Fund, which is one of the best-funded Democratic organizations in the country, is financing a super PAC called Retire Career Politicians that has so far spent $1 million on advertising promoting Osborn.

SurveyUSA also zeroes in on the 2nd Congressional District in the Omaha area and finds Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas beating Republican Rep. Don Bacon 46-40 two years after the incumbent narrowly fended him off. The poll also shows Harris carrying the district 47-42 four years after Joe Biden's 52-46 victory won him a single electoral vote from Nebraska.

We've seen two other polls of the 2nd District since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket in July, and they were both conducted around the same time in mid-August. The GOP firm Remington Research showed Bacon ahead 44-42, while the Democratic pollster Change Research had Vargas winning 48-43. Only Remington included presidential results, putting Harris up 50-42.

SurveyUSA finds, in fact, that 2nd District voters aren't inclined to back any Republicans this year. It shows Osborn outpacing Fischer 42-37, while Democrat Preston Love leads appointed GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts 43-41 here even as Ricketts easily prevails 50-33 statewide. Ricketts, who was appointed by Gov. Jim Pillen early last year, is campaigning in the special election for the remaining two years of the term that Republican Ben Sasse won in 2020

(Sasse resigned at the end of the last Congress to become president of the University of Florida, though he announced he was relinquishing that job in July due to his wife's health struggles. However, the school's newspaper, the Independent Florida Alligator, has since reported that Sasse spent his brief tenure "directing millions in university funds into secretive consulting contracts and high-paying positions for his GOP allies.")

Finally, SurveyUSA shows voters support both of the dueling constitutional amendments concerning abortion that will appear on the ballot. A 56-29 majority backs the initiative that would both add the 12-week ban passed by Republican lawmakers last year into the state constitution and allow lawmakers to pass even harsher curbs.

A smaller 45-35 plurality favors the plan to allow abortions to take place until fetal viability and afterward if needed to protect a pregnant patient's life or health. If the two amendments both prevail, the state constitution says that the one with the most "yes" votes "shall thereby become law as to all conflicting provisions."

P.S. We interviewed Split Ticket co-founder Lakshya Jain on The Downballot podcast last week. Click here for our full conversation, starting at the 19:19 mark.

Governors

NH-Gov

Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte apologized on Friday for running an ad she'd debuted hours earlier that attacked the leading Democratic candidate for governor, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, over a 2015 murder that took place more than two years before Craig became leader of New Hampshire's largest city.

Ayotte's ad, which the candidate said she'd ordered removed from the airwaves, featured footage of newscasters discussing the killing of a woman named Denise Robert. Robert's brother responded with a statement declaring, "[T]o imply that Joyce Craig is responsible or that this happened under her watch is wrong. I'm calling on Kelly Ayotte to take this ad down and to never use my sister's memory to attack someone again." Republican Ted Gatsas, who was mayor in 2015, supports Ayotte.

Ayotte, who has the backing of retiring Gov. Chris Sununu, has spent the last several weeks attacking Craig on TV even though both candidates have yet to win their respective primaries, which will take place on Tuesday.

Ayotte's main intraparty foe, former state Senate President Chuck Morse, is hoping to overcome his wide polling deficit with a new commercial arguing that Ayotte "voted with Obama to give amnesty to 11 million illegal immigrants." Craig, meanwhile, has led in the polls over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington in a contest where both Democrats are blitzing each other with negative ads.

House

AK-AL

Democratic Rep. Mary Peltota finished with 50.9% of the vote in the 12-person race to represent Alaska's at-large House seat, according to final results of the state's Aug. 20 top-four primary that officials certified on Sunday. That represents a bump for Peltola from election night, when she sat at 50.4%.

Importantly, winning a majority of the vote does not allow candidates to avoid the November general election: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1997 that no one can win election to Congress before the November Election Day set by federal law.

Nonetheless, Peltota's allies hope her strong performance will augur well for her fall showdown against Republican Nick Begich. It remains to be seen, though, whether the primary results will bear any relationship with the November outcome, especially since Alaska's top-four primary system only went into effect two years ago.

Begich and fellow Republican Nancy Dahlstrom clocked in at 27% and 20%, respectively, while a little-known Republican named Matt Salisbury took fourth with 0.6%. Because Dahlstrom, the state's lieutenant governor, dropped out following her disappointing showing, her spot in the general election will go to John Wayne Howe, a perennial candidate who chairs the secessionist Alaskan Independence Party.

FL-13

The far-right Club for Growth has publicized an internal poll from WPA Intelligence that shows GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna leading Democrat Whitney Fox 48-43 in Florida's 13th District, a release that comes just days after a survey from St. Pete Polling for Florida Politics unexpectedly showed Fox ahead 48-44.

The Club, which does not currently list Luna on its endorsement page, did not include numbers for the presidential race. St. Pete Polls, though, showed Kamala Harris ahead 51-46 in a St. Petersburg-area constituency that Donald Trump took by a decisive 53-46 margin in 2020.

National Democrats have yet to book any ad time to contest this seat, which Republicans aggressively gerrymandered just two years ago, though they may take another look now that two surveys show a single-digit race. And Luna, an election conspiracy theorist who looked secure until just last week, seems to agree that she enjoys at best a modest lead.

"Don’t believe the fake poll," she said when she tweeted out the Club's survey. "Here is legitimate polling showing I have a 5-point lead."

NH-02

Former New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch announced on Saturday that he was switching his endorsement from former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern to former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander ahead of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for the 2nd District. Days later, debuted a commercial in which Lynch tells the audience, "I respect Colin Van Ostern but I don’t respect his campaign. It’s one of the most dishonest I have ever seen." 

Goodlander also launched another new spot heading into the final days of the campaign in which the candidate herself declares that Van Ostern is "being dishonest with you about my commitment to reproductive freedom." She tells the viewer that she suffered a miscarriage when she was 20 weeks pregnant before saying of her opponent, "[F]or this guy, it's just politics, but for so many of us, it's personal."

These ads come at a time when both sides have been running negative commercials against the other ahead of the primary to succeed outgoing Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster.

Goodlander's allies at VoteVets began with an ad accusing Van Ostern of going back on a promise not to accept corporate PAC donations. Van Ostern responded by saying he'd made his pledge earlier in 2024—eight years after receiving the corporate contributions that are cited in the spot during his unsuccessful bid for governor—and called VoteVets' ad "false and defamatory."

Kuster, who supports Van Ostern, was likewise angry. She starred in a commercial for Van Ostern charging that "out-of-state money is trying to buy our election." The congresswoman also highlighted the fact that Goodlander "hasn't lived in our district for decades" and donated to "pro-life Republicans." Lynch, who served as governor from 2005 until his retirement in 2013, told WMUR's Adam Sexton that the Kuster ad helped convince him he could no longer support Van Ostern.

NRCC

The National Republican Congressional Committee has added four more names to its Young Guns program for top candidates, though with eight losses in prior House races between them, it's a stretch to call Nick Begich, Mike Erickson, Paul Junge, or Joe Kent unseasoned in any way.

All four men are campaigning for the seats they lost two years ago, and three of them are in for rematches against their previous Democratic foe.

• Begich is trying to unseat Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola after losing twice (including once in a special election) in 2022.

• In Oregon's 6th District, Erickson is going up against Rep. Andrea Salinas, who defeated him in the most recent midterms. Erickson also lost two bids for prior versions of this seat in 2006 and 2008.

• Junge is the only one facing a new opponent, thanks to Rep. Dan Kildee's retirement; he'll go up against state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet this time. Last time, Kildee ran up a 55-45 win over Junge, who lost a campaign for a different seat in 2020.

• Kent's losing record is the shortest but also the ugliest: He wants revenge on Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington 3rd District after she beat him in a massive upset in 2022.

Ballot Measures

AZ Ballot

Local pollster Noble Predictive Insights takes a look at a trio of ballot measures that Arizona's Republican-led legislature has placed before voters but finds only one of them favored to pass.

That measure is Proposition 314, which would impose harsh penalties on undocumented immigrants. While opponents have argued that the plan would set up a legal battle due to conflicts between federal and state law, NPI nonetheless shows a strong 63-16 majority planning to vote "yes."

However, that same group of respondents opposes the GOP's plan to eliminate regular judicial elections by a 38-31 margin, though a considerable 24% remain undecided. (The rest say they just won't vote on this plan.) Proposition 137, most notably, would retroactively apply to the two conservative justices facing retention elections this fall, Kathryn King and Clint Bolick. Its passage would therefore keep them in office even if a majority of voters were to decide they don't deserve new six-year terms.

Finally, NPI finds a small 32-29 plurality opposed to Proposition 135, which would allow the legislature to weaken or eliminate the governor's powers during a state of emergency. However, a sizable 30% remain uncommitted.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton for The Telegraph: Ruben Gallego (D): 42, Kari Lake (R): 37 (46-45 Trump) (mid-Aug.: 44-39 Gallego)

• AZ-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R): Gallego (D): 49, Lake (R): 45 (49-48 Trump)

• FL-Sen: Cherry Communications (R) for the Florida Chamber of Commerce (pro-Rick Scott): Rick Scott (R-inc): 51, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 44 (52-45 Trump) (May: 54-39 Scott)

• FL-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Scott (R-inc): 43, Mucarsel-Powell (D): 40 (48-43 Trump)

• MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press: Elissa Slotkin (D): 46, Mike Rogers (R): 42 (46-45 Trump) (July: 43-40 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Slotkin (D): 42, Rogers (R): 35 (47-44 Harris)

• MN-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 41, Royce White (R): 34 (51-42 Harris)

• NM-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 43, Nella Domenici (R): 33 (47-40 Harris) (mid-Aug.: 42-36 Heinrich)

• NV-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 43, Sam Brown (R): 39 (47-47 presidential tie) (mid-Aug.: 41-37 Rosen)

• NV-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R): Rosen (D-inc): 49, Brown (R): 39 (48-47 Trump)

• PA-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Bob Casey (D-inc): 44, Dave McCormick (R): 38 (46-45 Harris) (mid-Aug.: 44-36 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Wick Insights (R) for 2Way: Casey (D-inc): 48, McCormick (R): 46 (48-47 Trump)

• WI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 46, Eric Hovde (R): 41 (48-44 Harris)

• WV-Sen: Research America for West Virginia MetroNews: Jim Justice (R): 62, Glenn Elliott (D): 28 (61-34 Trump)

• NC-Gov: Redfield & Wilton: Josh Stein (D): 44, Mark Robinson (R): 40 (45-44 Trump) (mid-Aug.: 45-39 Stein)

• NC-Gov: East Carolina University: Stein (D): 47, Robinson (R): 41 (48-47 Trump) (June: 44-43 Stein)

• WV-Gov: Research America: Patrick Morrisey (R): 49, Steve Williams (D): 35 (61-34 Trump)

Ad Roundup

You'll notice an unusually large collection of ads in today's newsletter. That's because political ad buys, which are usually purchased by the week, typically start on a Tuesday and run through the following Monday. But Election Day (which campaigns count backward from) is itself a Tuesday, so why don't buys begin on a Wednesday? The answer likely lies in the fact that campaigns used to eschew advertising on Election Day itself, concluding that voters had already made their choices. That once-conventional wisdom, though, is now a thing of the past.

• AZ-Sen: CHC BOLD PAC - pro-Ruben Gallego (D) (in Spanish, $1.1 million buy)

• MD-Sen: Larry Hogan (R) 

• MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D-inc) - anti-Tim Sheehy (R); Tester; WinSenate - anti-Sheehy; Republicans for Tester - pro-Tester; Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Tester; American Crossroads - anti-Tester

• NV-Sen: Sam Brown (R) and the NRSC - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc); Brown (here and here)

• OH-Sen: Defend American Jobs - pro-Bernie Moreno (R); Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc); Win Senate - anti-Moreno

• PA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) and the NRSC - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc) ($2.2 million buy); Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Casey (here and here); WinSenate - anti-McCormick

• WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)

• NH-Gov: NH-Gov: Cinde Warmington (D) - anti-Joyce Craig (D)

• WA-Gov: Bob Ferguson (D)

• AK-AL: NRCC - anti-Mary Peltola (D-inc)

• CA-13: House Majority PAC - anti-John Duarte (R-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• CA-27: Mike Garcia (R-inc)

• IA-03: House Majority PAC - anti-Zach Nunn (R-inc)

• ME-02: House Majority PAC - anti-Austin Theriault (R) (here and here)

• MI-07: House Majority PAC - anti-Tom Barrett (R)

• MI-08: Kristen McDonald Rivet (D); House Majority PAC - anti-Paul Junge (R); NRCC - anti-McDonald Rivet

• MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc)

• MT-01: Ryan Zinke (R-inc)

• NE-02: House Majority PAC - anti-Don Bacon (R-inc)

• NM-02: Yvette Herrell (R) and the NRCC

• NV-04: Steven Horsford (D-inc)

• NY-17: Mondaire Jones (D) - anti-Mike Lawler (R-inc) ($1 million buy)

• NY-22: House Majority PAC - anti-Brandon Williams (R-inc)

• OH-09: House Majority PAC - anti-Derek Merrin (R); OH-09: Merrin and the NRCC - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)

• OH-13: Emilia Sykes (D-inc)

• OR-05: Janelle Bynum (D) - anti-Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-inc)

• PA-08: House Majority PAC - anti-Rob Bresnahan (R)

• PA-10: Janelle Stelson (D) - anti-Scott Perry (R-inc) (here and here)

• TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R-inc)

• VA-02: House Majority PAC - anti-Jen Kiggans (R-inc)

• WA-03: House Majority PAC - anti-Joe Kent (R)

• WI-01: Bryan Steil (R-inc)