Morning Digest: Why Democrats can win New Hampshire's governorship—and maybe a trifecta

Full control of state government is possible for the first time since 2010

Former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (center), the Democratic nominee for governor of New Hampshire (credit: Joyce Craig Facebook)

Leading Off

NH-Gov

Former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte respectively won Tuesday's Democratic and Republican primaries to succeed New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican who is retiring after four two-year terms.

Craig outpaced Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington 48-42 on the final primary night of 2024, while Ayotte defeated former state Senate President Chuck Morse 63-34.

While Sununu easily won each of his three reelection campaigns, Granite State Democrats have reason to feel optimistic about Craig's prospects now that the popular incumbent won't be on the ballot.

A prominent Republican activist from Massachusetts named Tom Mountain made news around Labor Day when he told local volunteers for Donald Trump that "the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state" and that he was "sure to lose by an even higher margin" than in 2020, when Joe Biden prevailed 53-45.

The Trump campaign quickly cut ties with Mountain and insisted that it would continue to contest New Hampshire's four electoral votes, with Trump himself pledging to visit the state ahead of Election Day. Trump, however, has not booked any TV time in the state. (Kamala Harris has not either, but a pro-Harris super PAC has.)

Another Trump loss might not drag down the entire party in a state where many voters still split their tickets, but Ayotte would still need a good deal of support from Democratic-leaning voters to prevail.

Sununu himself won the 2016 race to succeed Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan 49-47 as Hillary Clinton was carrying New Hampshire by a slender 47-46 margin, a 3-point overperformance. Ayotte, though, wasn't able to win over quite enough Clinton voters during that fateful year, as Hassan narrowly denied her a second term in the Senate.

But even should Ayotte turn in a performance similar to Sununu's when the governorship was last open, that likely would not be enough, since polls show Harris up around 7 points.

Democrats are also betting that abortion will be a massive liability for Ayotte, so much so that both Craig and the Democratic Governors Association began airing ads well ahead of the primary attacking her record on reproductive rights. Ayotte quickly responded with commercials promising not to touch the state laws that protect abortion access, but that hasn't deterred her detractors.

"Ayotte supported a national abortion ban and failed to protect access to IVF," said the narrator in a recent spot from the DGA. "She's also backing Trump again even though he supports letting states monitor pregnant women."

Ayotte, though, believes that other concerns will predominate. She's aired numerous commercials arguing that Craig failed to protect Manchester from violent crime during the Democrat's six years as leader of their state's largest city. One such spot, however, backfired late last month after Ayotte apologized for highlighting a 2015 murder that took place more than two years before Craig became mayor, but that hasn't changed her overall strategy.

Ayotte is also tapping into New Hampshire's not-always-friendly rivalry with its larger neighbor to the south by repeatedly warning that the state is "one election away from becoming Massachusetts."

If both Ayotte and Trump falter, New Hampshire Democrats would have the opportunity to win the governorship, the state Senate, and the state House—a "trifecta" that they haven't enjoyed since the 2010 red wave. (All of the state's legislative seats are on the ballot every two years.) Republicans currently control all three institutions, so a Democratic sweep would dramatically alter state government.

The toughest target is likely the 24-person Senate, where the GOP enjoys a 14-10 edge, thanks in part to the gerrymander the party passed two years ago. VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App underscores the Democrats' challenge: While Biden comfortably won the state by a 7-point margin, he and Trump each took exactly half of the seats in the Senate.

However, Trump won several of those districts by small margins, so it's possible that they could back Kamala Harris this time around. Because New Hampshire doesn't have a lieutenant governor to break ties, a 12-12 deadlock would likely require some sort of power-sharing agreement. The GOP, meanwhile, is defending a tiny 198-191 edge in the state House, a 400-member legislative body that's one of the largest in the English-speaking world.  

Election Recaps

DE-Gov (D)

New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer defeated Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long 47-37 in the primary to succeed fellow Democrat John Carney as governor of Delaware, with the balance going to National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara. While Hall-Long had Carney's support, she spent almost the entire campaign facing down a series of campaign finance scandals that have repeatedly made headlines.

Meyer will be favored against state House Minority Leader Mike Ramone, who won the Republican primary over two little-known foes, for an office the GOP last won in 1988.

Wilmington, DE Mayor (D)

Termed-out Gov. John Carney beat former Wilmington Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter 54-46 in the Democratic primary to replace his ally, retiring Mayor Mike Purzycki, as leader of Delaware's largest city. Carney, who won't face any opposition in November, is now all but assured of becoming the first sitting American governor ever elected mayor of any city.

NH-01 (R)

Former Executive Councilor Russell Prescott defeated businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky 26-24 in the seven-person GOP primary to take on Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in eastern New Hampshire. 

National GOP outside groups, however, have yet to signal that they plan to wage a serious effort to unseat Pappas in the 1st District, which favored Joe Biden 52-46 in 2020. Pappas' 54-46 win in 2022 marked the fourth consecutive Democratic victory in what was once one of the most politically volatile House seats in the nation.

NH-02 (D & R)

Former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander beat former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern 64-36 in the expensive and nasty Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster, who supported Van Ostern.

On the GOP side, former Colorado Libertarian Party candidate Lily Tang Williams outpaced businessman Vikram Mansharamani 36-27. While Republicans would like to contest the 2nd District, which is based in northern and western New Hampshire, Democrats will be favored to hold this seat, which favored Joe Biden 54-45.

Senate

NE-Sen-A

Republican Sen. Deb Fischer launched her first negative TV ad of the race on Tuesday, charging that independent Dan Osborn is "a dangerous Trojan Horse" for Democrats. After linking Osborn to Bernie Sanders and noting that he doesn't support Donald Trump, the narrator intones, "Dan Osborn: Just another rubber stamp for Kamala Harris and her radical liberal agenda."

Osborn, who is Fischer's sole opponent in this red state, trailed her by just a 39-38 margin in a recent SurveyUSA poll for the election analysis site Split Ticket, but Republicans are counting on that to change now that they're on the attack. They're working from the same playbook the used a decade ago in neighboring Kansas when independent Greg Orman took on GOP Sen. Pat Roberts in another race without a Democrat on the ballot.

While Orman posted double-digit polling leads into October of 2014, he lost ground after Roberts and his allies did everything they could to tie him to national Democrats. Orman pushed back with ads portraying himself as an independent problem solver and arguing that both President Barack Obama and Roberts shared responsibility for the nation's problems. Though the race wound up being Kansas' closest Senate contest since 1996, Orman still lost 53-43.

Independent Evan McMullin suffered a similar fate in 2022 after he failed to convince enough Utah voters to eject far-right Sen. Mike Lee. Lee managed the narrowest victory for a Utah Republican in a Senate race since 1976, but he still won by a 53-43 margin.

Osborn is hoping that his message will prove more resilient than those delivered by his fellow red state independents. "[H]elp us break the 2-party doom loop we've all been trapped in," he wrote last week in a tweet that touted him as a "true independent."

House

MI-07

The GOP firm Cygnal, polling on behalf of the NRCC, shows Republican Tom Barrett beating Democrat Curtis Hertel 48-43 in Michigan's 7th District, which Democrat Elissa Slotkin is leaving behind to run for the Senate. That margin, however, is slightly tighter than what Cygnal found in February, when it gave Barrett a 44-37 edge.

The memo for this latest survey, which was first shared with the National Journal, did not mention presidential numbers for a Lansing-based seat that Joe Biden took by a slim 49.4-48.9 margin four years ago.

The only other public poll of the race—and the only independent survey—had Barrett up 48-41. That finding was from a mid-July survey conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections that was in the field shortly before Biden ended his reelection campaign. Barrett lost to Slotkin 52-46 after an expensive race in 2022.

SC-02

Republican Rep. Joe Wilson was taken to the hospital after collapsing at an event on Tuesday and is being treated for "stroke-like symptoms," according to a message his son posted on social media. Wilson, 77, has represented South Carolina's conservative 2nd District since winning a special election in 2001.

Ballot Measures

FL Ballot

Supporters of an amendment to restore abortion rights in Florida just launched their first TV ad campaign, but they face a new opponent whose involvement in the election has drawn intense criticism: the state government.

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, an avowed opponent of abortion rights, has used taxpayer resources to conduct a multi-front war on the measure, known as Amendment 4:

• DeSantis' "election police"—a squad created two years ago to root out nonexistent cases of voter fraud—have been going door to door questioning voters who signed petitions to place the amendment on the ballot.

• The secretary of state's office recently began reviewing tens of thousands of petition signatures, even though the very same body certified the measure in January.

• A state healthcare agency published a website openly attacking Amendment 4, falsely claiming it "threatens women's safety" and baselessly warning in a large graphic, "Don't let the fearmongers lie to you."

• The same agency also released an advertisement directing viewers to its site. The department has refused to say how much it's spending on the ad, which is airing on television.

Democrats and reproductive rights supporters have blasted DeSantis for directly involving state government in the political process.

"This is what we would expect to see from an authoritarian regime," a spokesperson for the Florida branch of the ACLU said in a statement, "not in the so-called 'Free State of Florida.'" (DeSantis has used that phrase for years and even emblazoned it on highway signs at the state border.) Lauren Book, the leader of the Democrats in the state Senate, said on social media that she was considering "appropriate legal action."

But the campaign behind Amendment 4 isn't waiting. In its first ad, Floridians Protecting Freedom notes that state law, which bars abortion at six weeks, prohibits the procedure "before many women know they're pregnant," saying "government decides, not you." The group says it's making a "multi-million dollar investment," according to Politico, which also reports that Republicans say they plan to respond with a $5 million buy of their own.

Recent campaign finance reports, however, indicate that Floridians Protecting Freedom has more than $20 million remaining in its coffers, a sign that spending is sure to skyrocket between now and November. Amendment 4 needs to win at least 60% of the vote in order to pass.

MO Ballot

A constitutional amendment to restore abortion rights in Missouri will go before voters in November after the state Supreme Court on Tuesday overturned a lower court ruling concluding the measure did not comply with state law.

In a brief opinion, the Supreme Court directed Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft to instruct local election officials to place the initiative, known as Amendment 3, on the general election ballot. A group of Republican legislators and conservative activists argued that voters should not get the chance to weigh in on the amendment because the petitions supporters used to collect signatures did not identify which existing state laws "would be repealed by the measure."

Circuit Judge Christopher Limbaugh agreed with that argument in a ruling issued on Friday, but the Supreme Court rejected it just hours ahead of a legal deadline to finalize the November ballot. The justices did not explain their reasoning, except to say they had acted "[b]y a majority vote," though they said that a more detailed explanation would be forthcoming.

The court also declined to hold Ashcroft in contempt, as supporters of the amendment had asked. Even though the Supreme Court had stayed the lower court's ruling, Ashcroft claimed on Monday that he had "decertified" Amendment 3. The justices, however, said that Ashcroft's action came after the deadline for the secretary of state's office to certify measures for the ballot and was therefore "a nullity and of no effect."

The only recent polling we've seen was a mid-August YouGov poll for St. Louis University that showed the pro-choice "yes" side ahead 52-34, but that survey isn't the only reason its opponents are pessimistic about defeating it at the ballot box.

St. Louis Public Radio cites the "enormous financial advantage" that Amendment 3's main backer, Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, has at its disposal as one reason that some anti-abortion politicos believe it will win.

State Sen. Jason Bean, who represents the dark red Bootheel region in southeastern Missouri, was open about his dismay in a recent interview with the station. "Everything that I'm kind of hearing and seeing, unfortunately, yes, I think it's going to pass," predicted Bean.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Morning Consult: Ruben Gallego (D): 49, Kari Lake (R): 41 (49-47 Trump)

• AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Gallego (D): 48, Lake (R): 42 (47-46 Trump) (late Aug.: 42-37 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Morning Consult: Rick Scott (R-inc): 47, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 42 (49-47 Trump)

• FL-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Scott (R-inc): 44, Mucarsel-Powell (D): 41 (50-44 Trump) (late Aug.: 43-40 Scott)

• MD-Sen: Morning Consult: Angela Alsobrooks (D): 48, Larry Hogan (R): 43 (62-34 Harris)

• MI-Sen: Morning Consult: Elissa Slotkin (D): 49, Mike Rogers (R): 40 (49-46 Harris)

• MI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Slotkin (D): 44, Rogers (R): 39 (48-45 Harris) (late Aug.: 42-35 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: co/efficient (R) for Americans for IVF: Slotkin (D): 39, Rogers (R): 38 (47-47 presidential tie)

• MN-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 42, Royce White (R): 36 (51-44 Harris) (late Aug.: 41-34 Klobuchar)

• NM-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 47, Nella Domenici (R): 37 (49-44 Harris) (late Aug.: 43-33 Heinrich)

• NV-Sen: Morning Consult: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 50, Sam Brown (R): 40 (48-48 presidential tie)

• NV-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Rosen (D-inc): 47, Brown (R): 39 (46-45 Trump) (late Aug.: 43-39 Rosen)

• OH-Sen: Morning Consult: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 46, Bernie Moreno (R): 43 (52-44 Trump)

• PA-Sen: Morning Consult: Bob Casey (D-inc): 49, Dave McCormick (R): 40 (49-46 Harris)

• PA-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Casey (D-inc): 44, McCormick (R): 36 (45-45 presidential tie) (late Aug.: 44-38 Casey)

• PA-Sen: co/efficient (R) for Americans for IVF: Casey (D-inc): 45, McCormick (R): 36 (48-46 Trump)

• TX-Sen: Morning Consult: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 47, Colin Allred (D): 42 (52-43 Trump)

• VA-Sen: Braun Research for the Washington Post and George Mason University: Tim Kaine (D-inc): 53, Hung Cao (R): 41 (50-42 Harris)

• WI-Sen: Morning Consult: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 49, Eric Hovde (R): 43 (49-46 Harris)

• WI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Baldwin (D-inc): 46, Hovde (R): 39 (49-46 Harris) (late Aug.: 46-41 Baldwin)

• WI-Sen: co/efficient (R) for Americans for IVF: Baldwin (D-inc): 49, Hovde (R): 43 (47-47 presidential tie)

• NC-Gov: Morning Consult: Josh Stein (D): 50, Mark Robinson (R): 37 (48-48 presidential tie)

• NC-Gov: Redfield & Wilton: Stein (D): 42, Robinson (R): 33 (45-44 Harris) (late Aug.: 44-40 Stein)

• NC-Gov: SurveyUSA for WRAL: Stein (D): 51, Robinson (R): 37 (49-46 Harris) (late Aug.: 50-36 Stein)

• NC-AG: SurveyUSA: Jeff Jackson (D): 43, Dan Bishop (R): 36

Ad Roundup

• MT-Sen: Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc); NRA - anti-Tester (part of $2 million buy)

• NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich (D-inc); Election Freedom Inc. - anti-Heinrich

• OH-Sen: Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc)

• PA-Sen: Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)

• AZ-06: House Majority PAC - anti-Juan Ciscomani (R-inc)

• CA-09: Kevin Lincoln (R) and the NRCC

• CA-22: House Majority PAC - anti-David Valadao (R-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• CA-40: Young Kim (R-inc)

• CO-08: Yadira Caraveo (D-inc); House Majority PAC - anti-Gabe Evans (R); Americans for Prosperity - pro-Evans

• CT-05: Jahana Hayes (D-inc); Americans for Prosperity - pro-George Logan (R)

• IA-03: NRCC - anti-Lanon Baccam (D)

• MI-10: John James (R-inc) - anti-Carl Marlinga (D)

• MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc) - anti-Joe Teirab (R)

• MT-01: Monica Tranel (D) - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc)

• NC-01: House Majority PAC - anti-Laurie Buckhout (R)

• NJ-07: Sue Altman (D) - anti-Tom Kean (R-inc) ($500,000 buy)

• NM-02: House Majority PAC - anti-Yvette Herrell (R); NRCC - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc); Americans for Prosperity - pro-Herrell

• NY-01: John Avlon (D)

• NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc) - anti-Mondaire Jones (D)

• NY-18: Pat Ryan (D-inc)

• OH-01: Greg Landsman (D-inc)

• OR-05: Janelle Bynum (D) - anti-Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-inc); House Majority PAC - anti-Chavez-DeRemer

• PA-08: Rob Bresnahan (R)

• PA-10: DCCC - anti-Scott Perry (R-inc)

Correction: This piece incorrectly described the partisan breakdown of the New Hampshire House. Republicans hold 198 seats and Democrats 191. One is held by an independent and the remainder are vacant.