Morning Digest: Why the GOP has a big spending edge in Pennsylvania's race for attorney general

Conservative megadonor + no donation limits = total free-for-all

Eugene DePasquale, Democratic nominee for attorney general of Pennsylvania (Credit: Eugene DePasquale for attorney general)

Leading Off

PA-AG

Both parties have reserved millions in ad time in Pennsylvania ahead of the general election for the high-profile post of state attorney general, but the Philadelphia Inquirer's Gillian McGoldrick reports that Republicans hold a wide financial advantage in this key open-seat race.

GOP groups, McGoldrick writes, have booked $13 million on TV and streaming platforms to aid their nominee, York County District Attorney Dave Sunday. Just under half of these reservations were made by the Commonwealth Leaders Fund, an outfit largely funded by conservative megadonor Jeff Yass. Democrats, meanwhile, have reserved $5 million to help Eugene DePasquale, who is the state's former auditor general.

The rules governing state-level races in the Keystone State also mean that Yass, unusually, is getting full bang for his buck. Normally, outside groups pay higher ad rates than candidates, who are usually entitled by law to the lowest rates a station charges. But in the case of state races, Pennsylvania stations have interpreted these rules differently.

That's because, unlike those seeking federal office, candidates for state posts aren't subject to contribution limits, so wealthy donors and organizations are free to transfer as much as they want to their favored contenders. As a result, there's little distinction on a financial level between campaigns and their third-party allies. Pennsylvania stations have therefore generally treated ads from outside groups the same as those from candidates as long as they're authorized.

Yass attracted attention earlier this year due to his major investments in both TikTok and Donald Trump's Truth Social platform, but Pennsylvania's wealthiest person has long been one of the GOP's most prolific national donors. Yass, an ardent charter school advocate, has also been heavily involved in races in his home state as well. 

Last year, for instance, he funded attack ads against former Philadelphia City Councilmember Helen Gym in a successful effort to stop her from winning the Democratic primary for mayor. But Yass didn't fare quite so well just a few months later, when Commonwealth Leaders Fund spent millions to aid Republican Carolyn Carluccio in the race for state Supreme Court. Democrat Dan McCaffery ultimately won 54-46, a victory that left his party with a 5-2 majority on the state's highest court.

Sunday and DePasquale are competing for one of the most powerful offices in this perennial swing state, and the outcome could impact future elections: The last person to win this post, Democrat Josh Shapiro, made a name for himself by fighting to protect the results of Pennsylvania's results in 2020 from Trump's barrage of baseless lawsuits.

The next attorney general will likewise take over an office that gives its occupant a great deal of visibility, which Shapiro used to his advantage in 2022 when he won the governor's mansion in a landslide. The new governor went on to appoint fellow Democrat Michelle Henry to succeed him as attorney general, though she opted not to seek a full term.

While Shapiro isn't up for reelection until 2026, Henry's office is one of the three statewide posts―also known as row offices―that will be on the ballot this year. Two Republicans, Auditor Timothy DeFoor and Treasurer Stacy Garrity, won tight races in 2020 for their respective posts even as Joe Biden was narrowly carrying Pennsylvania, and both incumbents face competitive contests to keep their jobs.

DeFoor, who was elected to succeed the termed-out DePasquale, faces Democratic state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta in Pennsylvania's first-ever statewide race between two Black candidates. Kenyatta also made history in 2018 when he became the first gay person of color elected to the legislature, and he'd be the first openly LGBTQ person elected statewide.

Garrity, meanwhile, faces Democrat Erin McClelland, a former project manager at the Allegheny County Department of Human Services. McClelland, who has unsuccessfully run for office multiple times in the Pittsburgh area, unexpectedly won the primary in April by beating state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro, who had the state party endorsement.

Senate

NE-Sen-A

Independent Dan Osborn is arguing that Republican Sen. Deb Fischer betrayed her pledges to serve just two terms and cut the federal deficit in what appears to be his first negative TV ad, an approach he's hoping will appeal to voters in conservative Nebraska. The spot comes just a few days after Fischer went on the attack by slamming Osborn, who is her sole opponent, as "a dangerous Trojan Horse" for Democrats.

Osborn avoids repeating Fischer's claims—an approach that risks unwittingly spreading them—but instead questions her truthfulness. His narrator tells viewers that Fischer has lied about her promises before and says she's now lying about Osborn.

"The transnational corporations can't buy him, so they're trying to destroy him," intones the voiceover. "Who do you trust? The career politician or the Navy vet taking 'em all on?"

Governors

NH-Gov

Saint Anselm College shows Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Joyce Craig 46-43 in the first poll we've seen all year of the general election for New Hampshire's open governorship. The poll, which was taken during the two days following the state's primaries, also shows Kamala Harris ahead 51-43 in the Granite State. It also included data on New Hampshire's two House races (see our NH-01, NH-02 item below for more).

House

NH-01, NH-02

Saint Anselm College's new survey also finds Democrats ahead in both of New Hampshire's U.S. House races in the first poll anyone has released for either general election matchup. (See our NH-Gov item above for more.)

In the 1st District, Rep. Chris Pappas enjoys a 50-38 advantage over Russell Prescott, who won a tight GOP primary last week. Respondents in this eastern New Hampshire constituency favor Kamala Harris 52-44 four years after Joe Biden prevailed 52-46.

Democrat Maggie Goodlander holds a similar 49-38 lead over Lily Tang Williams in the 2nd District, where Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster is retiring after 14 years representing the northern and western portions of the state. Harris is ahead 51-42 here, a spread that's identical to Biden's 54-45 margin of victory in 2020.

PA-01

Democrat Ashley Ehasz has publicized an internal poll from Upswing Research that shows her trailing Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick 50-45 in Pennsylvania's 1st District, a move that came days after Fitzpatrick shared his own survey placing him ahead 54-40. Neither poll offered data on the presidential race for a constituency that Joe Biden carried 52-47 in 2020.

While Ehasz's numbers, which were first shared with PoliticsPA, were considerably better for her than those Fitzpatrick showcased, they're a bit worse than the 47-45 deficit that Upswing found in a June poll for her campaign. We've seen no independent polling of this race yet.

While the 1st District, which is based in Bucks County just outside of Philadelphia, has been amenable to Democrats in statewide races, Fitzpatrick has run well ahead of the GOP ticket during his four prior campaigns. The congressman beat Ehasz 55-45 in a 2022 contest that attracted relatively little outside spending, and major groups are so far staying on the sidelines for their rematch. 

WI-03

The Democratic group House Majority PAC has publicized an internal poll from GBAO that shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke with a 49-47 edge over freshman Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin's 3rd District. Politico, which first shared this poll, did not mention any presidential numbers for a southwestern Wisconsin constituency that Donald Trump carried 51-47 in 2020.

The only other poll we've seen here was a June Cooke internal that showed Van Orden ahead 50-46. That survey was conducted about two months before Cooke won a competitive August primary against state Rep. Katrina Shankland.

Independent Expenditures

The latest update to our independent expenditure tracker for House races shows Republicans narrowing the spending gap with Democrats but still trailing by a sizable margin.

Over the last week, the DCCC and the House Majority PAC together spent about $8.6 million across 25 different districts while the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund combined to spend $5.7 million in 17 races.

That difference is smaller than the prior week's, but all told, the two Democratic groups have deployed more than $17 million for the general election while their GOP counterparts have shelled out less than $7 million.

In total, eight new districts saw outspending spending from at least one of the "Big Four." The largest new influx came in New Mexico's 2nd District, where HMP poured in almost $600,000 to protect first-term Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez. The GOP's biggest outlay, meanwhile, was in Colorado's 8th, where CLF spent about $450,000 to unseat another freshman Democrat, Rep. Yadira Caraveo.

Analyst Rob Pyers also points out that the playing field—at least as far as the top spenders see it—is much smaller than it was two years ago. In total, these four organizations are involved in just 29 races so far. At this point in 2022, by contrast, they'd collectively invested in 51 different contests.

That could change, though, especially since more spending was frontloaded a cycle ago: The Big Four had spent more than $37 million as of mid-September in 2022 compared to $24 million this year.

Ballot Measures

MO Ballot

The campaign to restore abortion rights to Missouri has reserved close to $4 million in ad time, reports the Missouri Independent's Rudi Keller, while the effort to defeat Amendment 3 has yet to book anything.

Republicans have publicly and privately fretted about the financial imbalance, and for good reason. Anna Spoerre wrote in the Independent last week that while Missourians for Constitutional Freedom has raised $16 million since January to promote the amendment, two anti-abortion groups have together taken in less than $900,000.

On top of that, an internal poll released late last week by Democrat Lucas Kunce's Senate campaign shows voters backing Amendment 3 by a 56-30 spread. This survey from GQR, which we included in our last Digest, also showed Kunce trailing Republican Sen. Josh Hawley by a small 50-46 margin even as respondents favored Donald Trump 55-44. Trump carried Missouri 57-41 four years ago.

Poll Pile

• NM-Sen: Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 50, Nella Domenici (R): 38 (49-39 Harris)

Ad Roundup

• MO-Sen: Josh Hawley (R-inc) - anti-Lucas Kunce (D)

• PA-Sen: Americans for Prosperity - pro-Dave McCormick (R); AFP - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)

• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc)

• AL-02: Shomari Figures (D) (here and here)

• NE-Sen-A: Retire Career Politicians PAC - pro-Dan Osborn (I)

• NM-Sen: Nella Domenici (R) - anti-Martin Heinrich (D-inc)

• TX-Sen: Win It Back PAC (Club for Growth affiliate) - anti-Colin Allred (D)

• IN-Gov: Mike Braun (R)

• NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D)

• WV-Gov: Patrick Morrisey (R)

• AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (D) - anti-Juan Ciscomani (R-inc)

• CA-27: George Whitesides (D) (in Spanish)

• CO-08: Yadira Caraveo (D-inc); Caraveo - anti-Gabe Evans (R)

• IA-01: AFP - pro-Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc)

• KS-03: Sharice Davids (D-inc)

• MT-01: Monica Tranel (D) - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc) (here and here)

• NM-02: Gabe Vasquez (D-inc) - anti-Yvette Herrell (R); Herrell - anti-Vasquez

• NY-17: Mondaire Jones (D) and the DCCC - anti-Mike Lawler (R-inc)

• NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R-inc) - anti-Josh Riley (D)

• OH-09: Win It Back - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)

• PA-17: AFP - pro-Rob Mercuri (R)

• TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R-inc)

• VA-02: AFP - pro-Jen Kiggans (R-inc)