Morning Digest: Democrats ignored this seat in '22. They aren't making the same mistake this time

After a highly touted GOP recruit won in a squeaker, Democrats see an opportunity

House Majority PAC ad against GOP Rep. John James of Michigan (credit: House Majority PAC)

Leading Off

MI-10

The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC launched a major buy on Tuesday to support Michigan Democrat Carl Marlinga in his rematch against freshman Rep. John James in the 10th District, a competitive constituency in the Detroit suburbs that major Democratic groups bypassed two years ago.

Marlinga, who is a former Macomb County district attorney and judge, very nearly won that first race despite getting abandoned by Democrats in Washington, D.C. This time, HMP is giving him some vital backup.    

Politico's Sarah Ferris, who first reported the news, says that the super PAC is spending $1.4 million, while the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke places the size of the buy somewhat higher, at $1.7 million. Either sum, though, is more than what Marlinga and his erstwhile allies spent in all of 2022 ahead of the Democrat's surprisingly narrow 49-48 loss to the well-funded James.

HMP's opening commercial begins by touting Marlinga's record as district attorney before attacking James' longtime opposition to abortion rights, making this the first ad that anyone has run against James this cycle. And Marlinga, who had just $100,000 on hand as of mid-July, could use the help: Burke says he has yet to reserve any TV time for the general election.

James lost competitive U.S. Senate races in 2018 and 2020 before running for the House last cycle, a decision that made him a highly prized recruit for the NRCC. Republicans were eager to promote a Black candidate, and James' immense fundraising ability and prominent profile coming off two statewide campaigns made him appear the heavy favorite.

His slim margin of victory—less than half a percentage point—therefore came as a major surprise, leaving the seat as one that truly got away from Democrats. But James remains a powerhouse fundraiser and has already made extensive use of his hefty war chest. Burke writes that James has already spent over $1 million on ads, including a joint spot with the NRCC arguing that Kamala Harris and Marlinga would endanger the local auto industry.

James has another $2 million more reserved, while the conservative American Action Network has also already spent more than $1 million on spots praising the incumbent. Despite this huge financial imbalance, though, the few polls that have been made public have found a competitive race.

A July survey from Target Insyght for Deadline Detroit showed Marlinga, who had not yet claimed the Democratic nomination, beating James 49-43. (Target Insyght worked for Marlinga's 2022 campaign.) HMP's own internal poll taken just after last month's primary found James ahead 47-44, but that close spread signaled that the super PAC was interested in the race

The contest could wind up getting considerably more expensive still. HMP and other outside groups from both parties have reserved millions in ad time in the Detroit media market, which contains the entire 10th District.

Much of that money will go to the 7th District, an open Democratic-held seat in the Lansing area. But as HMP's decision to air spots in the James-Marlinga race shows, third-party spenders can use their reservations for any election in a given market. (The 10th and 7th are it, though: No other battleground House districts are in the Detroit region.)

James' district is no stranger to close races. Donald Trump took the 10th by a slender 50-49 margin in 2020 as James himself narrowly lost the constituency to Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

Senate

WI-Sen

Eric Hovde has replaced several members of his senior staff over the last three months, reports the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, amid complaints from his fellow Republicans about his campaign against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin.

Hovde ditched his media consultants in June, reportedly because of a "disconnect between the campaign and the organization," according to unnamed sources cited by the Journal Sentinel. That shakeup doesn't appear to have solved the problem, though, because Hovde's communications director also quit earlier this month.

The paper adds that Hovde also replaced his fundraising consultants around the time of the Republican National Convention in July because of what the candidate "believed to be lagging fundraising numbers."

Hovde self-funded $13 million through the end of June, and his ability to partially finance his own campaign was a key reason Republicans wanted him to run in the first place. The NRSC was not shy about its plans to recruit wealthy candidates this cycle, and Hovde seemed to fit the bill. But even though Hovde is worth at least $200 million and perhaps much more, he evidently is not immune to fundraising struggles.

Other Republicans haven't kept their criticisms about his bid to themselves. Phil Anderson, who waged a longshot primary campaign against Hovde, claimed last month that Rep. Glenn Grothman agreed he was running "a terrible campaign." Grothman does not appear to have disputed that the exchange took place.

Conservative radio host Vicki McKenna, meanwhile, did not hesitate to air her feelings publicly. "Wisconsin worries me for a bunch of reasons," she told her listeners earlier this month. "I think the Senate candidacy of Eric Hovde. While he’s a great candidate, the campaign has been weak."

House

IA-01

Democrat Christina Bohannan has released a late August poll conducted by Normington Petts showing her deadlocked at 47 apiece with GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's 1st District. This survey, like most House internal polls we've seen this cycle, did not include any data on the presidential race.

This is the first poll anyone has publicized all year of the rematch between Miller-Meeks and Bohannan, a former state representative. Donald Trump carried this southeastern Iowa constituency, which is home to Davenport and Iowa City, 51-48 in 2020, while Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan 53-47 two years later.

Bohannan's allies, though, are more optimistic about her second campaign. House Majority PAC, which barely spent anything here last cycle, announced last week it was booking $2.3 million for ad time in Iowa, which Politico reported would be directed toward this race.

Ballot Measures

OH Redistricting

The Republican majority on the Ohio Supreme Court on Monday night upheld most of the deceptive ballot summary that a GOP-run panel crafted for a proposed amendment to end partisan gerrymandering.

The campaign to pass Issue 1, though, began a well-funded ad campaign the very next day to inform voters what the plan would actually do. The GOP firm Medium Buying says that Citizens Not Politicians, the main group supporting the amendment, has reserved over $19 million in TV time, while the opposing side has yet to book anything.

"When coaches don't play by the rules, we call it cheating," the narrator intones in a new ad as the audience is reminded of the sign-stealing scandal that continues to dog the Ohio State University's bitter football rival, the University of Michigan. "When politicians do it it's called gerrymandering, and it's just as bad." 

The spot continues, "Career politicians and lobbyists manipulate voting districts to ensure they win." The narrator goes on to extol Issue 1 as a plan that "ends gerrymandering and empowers citizens to draw fair districts in an open and transparent process."

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and his fellow Republicans on the state's Ballot Board, though, approved a summary of Issue 1 last month that, among other things, claims the measure would create a new redistricting commission that is "required to gerrymander the boundaries of state legislative and congressional districts."

The GOP majority on the state's highest court didn't object to this characterization, with Justice Pat Fischer writing, "[G]errymandering, though in a bipartisan manner, is absolutely 'required' under the proposed amendment."

The Supreme Court did order the Ballot Board to make some smaller revisions. The justices directed the panel to make it clear that "the public would have the right to express itself to the new redistricting commission," and that the courts would not be limited to policing solely whether new maps reflect the state's partisan lean.

Members of the Democratic minority were not happy that most of the summary was left intact. Justice Michael Donnelly referenced an unrelated July decision that attracted national attention when he wrote, "Given that the four members of this court in the majority today apparently think that the word 'boneless’ means ‘you should expect bones,’ I’m sure it comes as no great surprise that they think that a constitutional amendment to 'ban partisan gerrymandering" really "require[s] gerrymander[ing]."

Poll Pile

• IN-Sen: Emerson College for The Hill: Jim Banks (R): 47, Valerie McCray (D): 33, Andrew Horning (L): 5 (57-40 Trump)

• MD-Sen: Emerson for The Hill and DC News Now: Angela Alsobrooks (D): 49, Larry Hogan (R): 42 (63-32 Harris) (May: 48-38 Alsobrooks)

• MN-Sen: Embold Research for MinnPost: Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 52, Royce White (R): 41 (49-45 Harris)

• MO-Sen: Emerson for The Hill: Josh Hawley (R-inc): 51, Lucas Kunce (D): 40 (53-43 Trump) (June: 47-38 Hawley)

• MO-Sen: Change Research (D): Hawley (R-inc): 46, Kunce (D): 41 (50-41 Trump)

• PA-Sen: Suffolk University for USA Today: Bob Casey (D-inc): 47, Dave McCormick (R): 43 (49-46 Harris)

• PA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R): Casey (D-inc): 49, McCormick (R): 44 (50-48 Trump)

• IN-Gov: Emerson: Mike Braun (R): 45, Jennifer McCormick (D): 34, Donald Rainwater (L): 6

• MO-Gov: Emerson: Mike Kehoe (R): 52, Crystal Quade (D): 36

• MO Ballot: Emerson: Abortion amendment: Yes: 58, No: 30

• MO Ballot: Change Research (D): Abortion amendment: Yes: 54, No: 38

• IN-AG: Emerson: Todd Rokita (R-inc): 49, Destiny Wells (D): 35

Ad Roundup

• MO-Sen: Show Me Strong PAC - anti-Lucas Kunce (D)

• MT-Sen: Last Best Place PAC - anti-Tim Sheehy (R); Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc) and the DSCC - anti-Bernie Moreno (R); SLF - anti-Brown; American Crossroads - anti-Brown (part of $6.2 million buy)

• PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc) and the DSCC - anti-Dave McCormick (R); McCormick and the NRSC - anti-Casey (here and here); SLF - anti-Casey (here and here)

• TX-Sen: Ted Cruz (R-inc) - anti-Colin Allred (D) (here and here)

• WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) and the Democratic Party of Wisconsin - anti-Eric Hovde (R)

• NC-Gov: RGA Right Direction PAC - anti-Josh Stein (D)

• AZ-01: House Majority PAC - anti-David Schweikert (R-inc); HMP - pro-Amish Shah (D)

• CA-03: Jessica Morse (D) - anti-Kevin Kiley (R-inc) (here and here)

• CA-13: NRCC - anti-Adam Gray (D)

• CA-41: Will Rollins (D)

• CA-45: Michelle Steel (R-inc)

• IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D) - anti-Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc)

• IA-03: DCCC - anti-Zach Nunn (R-inc)

• ME-02: NRCC - anti-Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MI-07: HMP - anti-Tom Barrett (R)

• MI-08: HMP - anti-Paul Junge (R); NRCC - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

• MT-01: Monica Tranel (D) - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc)

• NC-01: Don Davis (D-inc)

• NE-02: NRCC - anti-Tony Vargas (D); DCCC - anti-Don Bacon (R-inc) (here and here)

• NV-04: Steven Horsford (D-inc) - anti-John Lee (R)

• NY-04: DCCC - anti-Anthony D'Esposito (R-inc)

• NY-17: Mondaire Jones (D) - anti-Mike Lawler (R-inc)

• NY-19: DCCC - anti-Marc Molinaro (R-inc)

• NY-22: DCCC - anti-Brandon Williams (R-inc)

• OH-09: DCCC - anti-Derek Merrin (R)

• PA-08: DCCC - anti-Rob Bresnahan (R); NRCC - anti-Matt Cartwright (D-inc)

• PA-10: Janelle Stelson (D)

• TX-34: Vicente González (D-inc); NRCC - anti-González (in English and Spanish)

• WA-03: NRCC - anti-Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc)

• FL Ballot: Created Equal - anti-abortion amendment

• NC-AG: Jeff Jackson (D)