Morning Digest: Why Democrats want to break up GOP supermajorities—and win one of their own

Don't overlook these battles in red states and swing states alike

North Carolina state Rep. Tricia Cotham (right) faces her first election since she left the Democratic Party and became a Republican (Credit: DemocratTriciaCotham.org)

Leading Off

State Legislatures

While both parties are working to flip or hold state legislative chambers across the country, Democrats and Republicans alike are also hoping to gain the supermajorities they'd need to exert considerably more influence in state government—or prevent the other side from doing so.

Pluribus News' Humberto Sanchez delves into Kansas and North Carolina, where Democrats want to keep Republicans from winning enough seats to override the vetoes of Democratic governors. He also takes stock of Wisconsin, where brand-new maps give Democrats the chance to end a GOP supermajority in the state Senate and even retake the Assembly, where Republicans are just shy of the two-thirds mark.

Looking beyond Sanchez's list, Nevada Democrats are close to gaining override leverage over GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo, a possibility Republicans naturally want to prevent. And in Montana, Democrats hope to end the GOP's ability to put constitutional amendments before voters without bipartisan support.

As Sanchez, notes, though, what constitutes a supermajority varies from state to state. According to Ballotpedia, 36 states require the support of two-thirds of each chamber to override a governor's veto—the same proportion needed in Congress to overcome a presidential veto. Another seven states require just three-fifths in each house, including North Carolina.

Six more states give their governors only a very limited veto power because it takes just a simple majority in each chamber to override them. And finally, there's Alaska, which is the only state that requires two-thirds of the entire legislature, with both chambers sitting together, to override vetoes.

Veto overrides are not the only procedure where many states require supermajorities. Constitutional amendments, tax increases, and even the quorum necessary to conduct legislative business can be subject to higher thresholds—and depending on the issue, the rules can differ even in the same state.

Below we look at these key states where supermajorities are on the line, though several others will host similar battles. Democrats in Florida and Missouri, for instance, are seeking to break GOP supermajorities, while Oregon Republicans want to make sure Democrats don't win one. All told, supermajorities could be up for grabs in as many as 30 of the 85 chambers that will hold elections this year.

Kansas

Kansas Democrats need to flip two seats in the 125-person House or three in the 40-member Senate to stop Republicans from being able to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly's vetoes for the remaining two years of her second and final term. Kelly has issued a record number of vetoes during her time in office, many of which have been sustained due to GOP infighting.

Political science professor Nathaniel Birkhead tells Sanchez that, because Kelly won several of the constituencies in play this year, Democrats have a "decent" chance of achieving their goals.

Montana

While Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte should have no trouble securing a second term, several unusual Montana laws mean that the historic supermajority his party gained in 2022 is in real danger this cycle.

Two years ago, the GOP won 102 of the 150 seats across both chambers, which lets it place constitutional amendments on the ballot—or even call a constitutional convention—without any Democratic support.

Arcane provisions in that same constitution, though, meant that those elections were carried out under the maps that were in use for the prior decade. By contrast, every other state that held legislative elections during the most recent midterms used brand-new maps created following the 2020 census.

As a result, this year's elections will be the first to see Montana use updated district lines based on population data from the last census—and those new lines will not be nearly as favorable to Republicans. That's because the state's bipartisan redistricting commission adopted new boundaries last year that were put forth by Democratic members over the GOP's bitter complaints.

Those new maps, as one Republican commissioner recently acknowledged, give Democrats a strong chance to flip enough seats to break the GOP's new supermajority, though there's no risk of Republicans losing either chamber.

Nevada

Just two years ago, Democrats in the Nevada legislature didn't have to concern themselves too much with gubernatorial vetoes. But then Republican Joe Lombaro unseated Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak during an otherwise strong midterm election for Silver State Democrats, changing the calculus.

Right now, Democrats hold exactly the two-thirds majority in the Assembly they need to override GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo's vetoes, and they're only one seat away from hitting that threshold in the Senate. Lombardo, who vetoed a record-setting 75 bills last year, is determined to prevent any erosion of his power, but Democrats have a strong shot at winning a supermajority in the Senate thanks to an open GOP seat in the Reno area that leans blue.

North Carolina

State Rep. Tricia Cotham's decision to abandon the Democratic Party last year gave North Carolina Republicans the three-fifths supermajorities they need to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's vetoes, and their new legislative gerrymanders are designed to maintain their hammerlock.

But Democrats, who managed to recruit candidates in almost every race despite the rigged maps, are holding out hope that they'll be able to overcome the odds if Kamala Harris carries the Tar Heel State and Democrat Josh Stein performs well in the contest to replace the termed-out Cooper.

Democrats need to unseat Cotham to have any chance of thwarting the GOP. Republicans worked to protect their new recruit by transforming her once-safely blue district in the Charlotte area into a constituency that Donald Trump would have carried by a narrow 50-48 margin in 2020, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App.

Cotham's former party is intent on beating the turncoat representative, though: Democrat Nicole Sidman raised twice as much money as the incumbent through June.

Wisconsin

There's little doubt that the Wisconsin GOP will lose the Senate supermajority it won in 2022. The bigger question is just how many seats Democrats will pick up.

The end of the GOP's ill-gotten era of dominance is at hand thanks to new maps that replaced Republican gerrymanders struck down by the state Supreme Court late last year. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and his allies are waging a well-funded effort to flip several Senate seats, but because only half of the chamber is up this year, it will likely take at least two election cycles for Democrats to win their first majority since the 2012 recall elections.

The Assembly is also on the docket in November, and it's very much up for grabs. Last cycle, Republicans fell just two seats short of winning a two-third supermajority in the lower chamber, but the GOP has much bigger things to worry about now—namely, whether it can hold a majority at all. Unlike in the Senate, every seat is on the ballot, so Democrats, who are fielding candidates in 97 of 99 districts, now have a shot to win control.

The Downballot

The state legislatures that are primed to flip

There are few topics nearer and dearer to us than state legislative races, which is why we welcomed Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Williams tells us all about Democrats' top targets this year, including protecting skinny majorities in Michigan and Pennsylvania and flipping GOP-controlled chambers in Arizona and New Hampshire. She also emphasizes how the DLCC plays the long game, since it often takes more than one cycle to come out on top.

Meanwhile, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard spotlight The Downballot's new special report on the size of the immigrant population in Springfield, Ohio. For all the attention the city has gotten, no major publication had done a deep dive to understand just how many Haitians now live there, so contributor David Jarman stepped into the breach. The hosts also discuss a pair of court rulings about misleading summaries of ballot measures written by Republicans—one rejecting an attempt to gaslight voters, and the other allowing it.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. To make sure you never miss an episode, just click the button below:

Senate

NE-Sen-A

A conservative outfit called Heartland Resurgence is spending close to $500,000 on a TV and digital ad buy attacking Nebraska independent Dan Osborn, which makes this the first time a GOP outside group has gotten involved in this Senate race. Heartland Resurgence, analyst Rob Pyers notes, was funded last cycle by the Senate GOP's main super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, but it remains to be seen who is financing it this time.

The group's opening commercial echoes Republican Sen. Deb Fischer's ads by accusing Osborn of only pretending to be unaligned. "He's no independent," says the narrator, "He's just Democrat Dan."

House

ME-02

The Maine-based pollster Pan Atlantic Research finds Republican Austin Theriault edging out Democratic Rep. Jared Golden 47-44 in the first survey we've seen all cycle of the race for the state's 2nd District. Respondents also favor Donald Trump 49-42 four years after he took this northern Maine seat by a 52-45 margin, a showing that would once again give Trump an electoral vote.

Golden, who is one of just five House Democrats defending a seat that Trump carried in 2020, has won his three terms in Congress by positioning himself as an ardent centrist. The congressman earned enough crossover support four years ago to prevail 53-47 even as Trump was carrying his seat (the most recent round of redistricting made only small changes to this constituency), and he won by that same spread last cycle.

Note that, because Golden and Theriault are the only candidates on the ballot, Maine's ranked-choice voting rules won't come into play in this race.

NJ-10

Newark City Councilwoman LaMonica McIver defeated Republican Carmen Bucco 81-16 in Wednesday's special election to succeed the late Rep. Don Payne in New Jersey's 10th District. Like Payne before her, McIver is also a Democrat, and her win was no surprise in a constituency Joe Biden carried 81-19 four years ago.

Once McIver, who stepped down as Council president a day before the election, is sworn in, the Garden State will have three women in its House delegation for the first time ever. The other two are Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman and Mikie Sherrill, who also represent reliably blue districts. A fourth Democratic woman, state Sen. Nellie Pou, is also poised to join the next Congress.

Mayors & County Leaders

Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors

Democrat Joel Navarro earned a cross-party endorsement on Wednesday from outgoing Republican Supervisor Jack Sellers, a development that could help Democrats win their first majority on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors since 1968.

Sellers, who along with his colleagues has spent years on the receiving end of harassment from election conspiracy theorists, didn't want to leave his post, but primary voters had other ideas. Sellers badly lost his bid for renomination in July to Mark Stewart, a Chandler City Council member who refused to say whether Biden or Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs were rightfully elected or if he'd have certified their respective victories.

Sellers, who has been subjected to death threats, didn't directly mention his former opponent in endorsing Navarro but alluded to the brand of politics Stewart represents.

"[W]e need public officials who are willing to stand up against lies and misinformation in defense of Maricopa County voters," Sellers said in a statement. "Joel Navarro is one of those leaders." Navarro, a former member of the Tempe City Council, said last year that Sellers was doing a "wonderful job" even as he predicted the incumbent wouldn't win his primary.

The GOP base's determination to prove Navarro right, though, may cost the party control of the Board of Supervisors.

Republicans currently hold a 4-1 majority on the five-member body that leads Arizona's largest county, but Navarro's district is one of two GOP-held open seats that favored Joe Biden four years ago. According to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, Biden carried the 1st District 51-48, which makes it one of three constituencies he won in 2020.

Democrats also need to win the contest in the 3rd District to succeed retiring GOP Supervisor Bill Gates, who was diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder after being bombarded with death threats.

But Republicans there behaved a bit more pragmatically than their counterparts in Sellers' district by nominating former state Sen. Kate Brophy McGee, whom the Arizona Republic's Abe Kwok describes as relatively moderate. She faces Democrat Daniel Valenzuela, a former member of the Phoenix City Council, in a constituency that Biden took 54-45.

The one current Democratic supervisor, Steve Gallardo, is on a glide path in the safely blue 5th District. He would likely take over from Gates as board chair should Navarro and Valenzuela also win. The other two districts, by contrast, are conservative seats that Republicans should win without trouble: the 2nd District, held by incumbent Tom Galvin, and the 4th, where U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko is running.

Poll Pile

• ME-Sen: Pan Atlantic Research: Angus King (I-inc): 53, Demi Kouzounas (R): 23, David Costello (D): 8 (50-41 Harris)

• MI-Sen: Quinnipiac University: Elissa Slotkin (D): 51, Mike Rogers (R): 46 (50-45 Harris)

• PA-Sen: Quinnipiac: Bob Casey (D-inc): 52, Dave McCormick (R): 43 (51-45 Harris) (Aug.: 52-44 Casey)

• WI-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) for the AARP: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Eric Hovde (R): 47 (48-45 Harris) (July: 50-45 Baldwin)

• WI-Sen: Quinnipiac: Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Hovde (R): 47 (48-47 Harris) (May: 54-42 Baldwin)

• ME Ballot: Pan Atlantic: Limit super PAC contributions: Yes: 69, No: 15

• ME Ballot: Pan Atlantic: Change state flag: Yes: 40, No: 40

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D) - anti-Kari Lake (R); Protect Progress - pro-Gallego

• MD-Sen: Angela Alsobrooks (D) and the DSCC - anti-Larry Hogan (R)

• MI-Sen: Protect Progress - pro-Elissa Slotkin (D)

• OH-Sen: Defend American Jobs - pro-Bernie Moreno (R); Buckeye Values PAC - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc)

• WA-Gov: Evergreen Values (DGA affiliate) - anti-Dave Reichert (R)

• AZ-01: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Amish Shah (D)

• CA-13: DCCC - anti-John Duarte (R-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• CA-22: CLF - anti-Rudy Salas (D)

• CA-27: CLF - anti-George Whitesides (D)

• CA-41: Ken Calvert (R-inc) - anti-Will Rollins (D)

• CA-45: CLF - anti-Derek Tran (D)

• CA-47: Scott Baugh (R); Dave Min (D) and the DCCC - anti-Baugh

• IA-03: CLF - anti-Lanon Baccam (D)

• IL-17: Joe McGraw (R)

• MI-07: CLF - anti-Curtis Hertel (D)

• MI-08: CLF - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

• NC-01: CLF - anti-Don Davis (D-inc)

• NE-02: Tony Vargas (D)

• NY-22: Brandon Williams (R-inc) - anti-John Mannion (D)

• OH-09: CLF - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)

• OH-13: Emilia Sykes (D-inc)

• OR-04: NRCC - anti-Val Hoyle (D-inc)

• VA-02: Jen Kiggans (R-inc)

• WA-03: DCCC - anti-Joe Kent (R)