Morning Digest: Why Iowa is suddenly a key House battleground for Democrats

The 1st District, once a longshot, just came online

Screenshot from a recent Democratic ad attacking Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's 1st District (credit: DCCC)

Leading Off

IA-01, IA-03

New ad reservations and polling indicate that Iowa, a state that had moved sharply away from Democrats over the last decade, will be an important battleground for control of the House this year.

The pro-Republican Congressional Leadership Fund announced Tuesday that it was booking $2.3 million to protect Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks against Democrat Christina Bohannan in the 1st District, a constituency in the southeastern corner of the state that major GOP groups had largely treated as secure until now.

CLF also said it's devoting an additional $1.9 million to help Rep. Zach Nunn in the neighboring 3rd District, which includes Des Moines and southwestern Iowa, on top of the $2.7 million it reserved in May. 

Nunn's Democratic foe, former U.S. Department of Agriculture official Lanon Baccam, also released an internal poll from GQR on Tuesday that shows him leading the freshman Republican 50-46 as respondents favor Kamala Harris 50-43. That would represent a major shift from Donald Trump's tiny 49.3-48.9 victory here in 2020.

The only other survey of the 3rd District we've seen was an RMG Research poll conducted less than two weeks ago for U.S. Term Limits that gave Baccam a 42-39 edge. Baccam, who is the son of members of the Tai Dam ethnic minority who fled Laos as refugees following the communist takeover in 1975, would be the first person of color to represent Iowa in Congress.

Nunn unseated Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne 50.3-49.6 two years ago, and both parties have long prepared for another tight battle. Third-party organizations supporting Nunn had deployed more than $2.5 million as of Tuesday, with the crypto-aligned Fairshake responsible for the largest chunk. Baccam's allies had spent a smaller, but still substantial, $1 million, but we know these sums will swell over the final six weeks of the race.

Importantly, these figures don't take into account spending from the campaigns themselves, and both candidates have proven themselves to be strong fundraisers. Baccam raised more than Nunn in the second quarter of the year, though the incumbent retained a sizable cash edge. The numbers are already out of date, though, since they reflect activity only through the middle of the year, but we'll get a fresh look when new financial reports come due on Oct. 15.

In the 1st District, by contrast, Miller-Meeks appeared to be a reach target for Democrats until just recently. The two-term congresswoman faces a rematch against Bohannan, a former state representative whom she beat 53-47 two years after Trump prevailed 51-48 here. Major Democratic groups like the House Majority PAC spent little on that first bout during what proved to be a strong year for Iowa Republicans, and it wasn't clear if 2024 would unfold any differently.

Bohannan, though, ended June with a cash advantage over Miller-Meeks after decisively outraising the incumbent in the most recent quarter. Bohannan later publicized a poll from late August showing the race tied at 47-47 apiece, which so far is the only survey we've seen of the contest.

HMP seems to like the data it's seen, though, because it reserved over $3 million in TV time in Iowa this month, with most of that aimed at the 1st District. CLF countered with its own $2.3 million reservation on Tuesday, the first from any prominent GOP group.

Just a year ago, it looked as though Democrats would be fortunate to put even one of Iowa's House seats in play, let alone two. In August of last year, the New York Times detailed the party's travails in this former swing state, with former Rep. Dave Loebsack telling the paper, "It's difficult even to recruit people to run when we're so far down."

(Loebsack beat Miller-Meeks in 2008, 2010, and 2014, back when this district was numbered the 2nd; she finally won the 2020 race to succeed Loebsack following his retirement by just six votes.)

Bohannan, though, kicked off her second campaign that summer by immediately emphasizing her opposition to a new state law banning most abortions after just six weeks, a policy that wasn't on the books during her previous race.

She's since aired ads attacking Miller-Meeks over the law, while a new spot from the DCCC likewise accused the incumbent of having "supported banning all abortions nationwide, no exceptions for rape, incest, or medical emergencies." Democrats have also highlighted Nunn's support for a similar bill when he served in the state legislature.

Democrats are likely to keep focusing on abortion: A recent statewide survey from veteran Iowa pollster Ann Selzer found respondents disapproving of the new abortion restrictions by a 59-37 margin. That same poll showed Trump leading Harris by just a 47-43 margin, four years after he prevailed by a comfortable 53-45 spread.

While both presidential campaigns are still treating the state's six electoral votes as safe for Trump, if Selzer's take is correct, Democrats have even more reason to be optimistic that they could flip the two congressional districts they're aiming for.

House

California

A trio of California universities—The University of Southern California, Cal Poly Pomona, and California State University, Long Beach—have jointly polled eight key House races in the state. We'll begin with the contests pitting Republicans against Democrats:

• CA-13: Adam Gray (D): 46, John Duarte (R-inc): 45 (50-46 Harris)

• CA-27: George Whitesides (D): 48, Mike Garcia (R-inc): 46 (51-43 Harris)

• CA-41: Ken Calvert (R-inc): 48, Will Rollins (D): 47 (48-46 Harris)

• CA-45: Derek Tran (D): 48, Michelle Steel (R-inc): 46 (51-43 Harris)

• CA-47: Scott Baugh (R): 49, Dave Min (D): 46 (49-45 Harris)

This new batch of polls also includes the GOP-held 22nd District, but its sample fell below the 300-person minimum The Downballot requires for inclusion in the Digest. 

For two of these districts, these are the first polls we've seen all year: the 13th District, a sprawling constituency based in the Central Valley; and the 47th District, a seat in coastal Orange County that Democratic Rep. Katie Porter left behind to wage an unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid.

The 13th favored Joe Biden 54-43 in 2020, but Duarte defeated Gray two years later by a skinny 50.2-49.8 margin for what was then an open seat. The 47th, meanwhile, backed Biden 54-43, while Porter fended off Baugh 52-48 the following cycle.

In the other three districts, there's been a smattering of public polling, though some of it is quite old. In the 27th, which is based in northern Los Angeles County, an April internal poll for Whitesides showed him with a 47-44 edge over Garcia. Biden prevailed by a wide 55-42 margin here, but Garcia won reelection 53-47 last cycle.

Meanwhile, in the 41st, an RMG Research poll for U.S. Term Limits earlier this month showed Rollins outpacing Calvert 41-35. (The survey's sponsor is no fan of Calvert, who was first elected back in 1992.) Donald Trump narrowly carried this area, which includes Palm Springs and the southern Riverside suburbs, by a slender 50-49 margin in 2020. Calvert went on to win reelection two years later by holding off Rollins 52-48.

Finally, in the 45th, a late July internal for Tran's allies at the DCCC found him tied 47-47 against Steel. Biden took this western Orange County seat 52-46, but as Steel's 52-48 victory last cycle demonstrated, many voters in this one-time GOP bastion are still happy to back Republicans further down the ballot even as they’ve become more open to supporting Democrats for president.

The three schools also take a look at the all-Democratic general elections for two safely blue open seats in the Bay Area. In the 12th District around Oakland and Berkeley, BART board member Lateefah Simon enjoys a 41-27 advantage over Jennifer Tran, a professor at Cal State East Bay. Separately, in the 16th District in Silicon Valley, CEPP has former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo leading Assemblyman Evan Low 44-27.

This is the first poll we've seen of the race in the 12th to succeed Rep. Barbara Lee, who like Porter lost the March top-two primary for Senate. Simon, who has the support of Lee and other prominent state and local Democrats, outpaced Tran 56-15 in the first round of voting, and there's been no indication that the general election will be any more competitive.

By contrast, these new numbers for the race to replace retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo come just days after a pro-Liccardo super PAC publicized its own polling showing him ahead by a similar 42-28 spread. (See our last Digest for more.) A late July internal for Low, however, gave Liccardo a considerably smaller 30-29 edge.

OR-05

Democrat Janelle Bynum has publicized an internal poll from Brilliant Corners giving her a small 47-45 advantage over Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon's 5th District, which is one of Democrats' top pickup targets. The Oregonian, which first reported the poll, did not mention any presidential numbers for this constituency, which Joe Biden took 53-44 in the last presidential election.

Brilliant Corners' poll of the 5th District, which is based in the southern Portland suburbs and central Oregon, is similar to a late August Noble Predictive Insights survey for Inside Elections that showed Bynum ahead 41-39. That survey, which is the only one that anyone had released prior to this week, found Kamala Harris ahead 47-42.

Congressional Leadership Fund

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the top Republican super PAC involved in House races, announced another $15 million in TV ad reservations for the general election on Tuesday, with an additional $3 million going toward radio and digital advertising.

With two exceptions, all of CLF's TV bookings are in districts the PAC was previously spending in. One is Iowa's 1st, which we discuss above in our Leading Off item. The other, according to Politico's Ally Mutnick, is California's 47th, an open Democratic-held seat in Orange County. It's not clear how much of CLF's new $2.6 million investment is devoted to that race, though, since the 47th is contained entirely within the Los Angeles media market, which is home to multiple competitive races.

Ballot Measures

OH Ballot

The campaign to defeat a proposed amendment to end partisan gerrymandering in Ohio has launched its first TV spot, though it's still spending just a fraction of the $19 million that the "yes" side has booked.

It's not quite clear, however, just how much Ohio Works, the group behind the "no" campaign, is spending: A spokesman tells Cleveland.com the buy is somewhere between $1.5 million and $2 million. The organization's approach, by contrast, is plain, as its new ad relies on some of Donald Trump's favorite conspiracy theories to attack the amendment, known as Issue 1.

"Democrats will do anything to win," the narrator claims as viewers see footage of Joe Biden's inauguration. "Changing the rules, mail-in ballots, cheating, and opening our borders just to win elections. Now in Ohio, they're working to change our constitution with Issue 1." The spot ignores that the amendment was written by a Republican, former Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor. 

Supporters are taking a very different tack. Citizens Not Politicians, which is spearheading the push for Amendment 1, is airing a new ad that features three people—one identifying as a conservative, one as a progressive, and one as an independent—all uniting behind the ballot measure.

"We don't like politicians or lobbyists rigging the system for themselves," says the ad's right-wing cast member. The progressive later declares, "Issue 1 would stop politicians from drawing rigged districts by creating an open process to draw fair ones."

Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: The Bullfinch Group (R) for The Independent Center: Rick Scott (R-inc): 46, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 44 (48-47 Trump)

• MI-Sen: Suffolk University for USA Today: Elissa Slotkin (D): 45, Mike Rogers (R): 43 (48-45 Harris)

• MT-Sen: RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute: Tim Sheehy (R): 50, Jon Tester (D-inc): 43 (59-38 Trump) (Aug. 49-44 Tester)

• NC-Gov: YouGov for Elon University: Josh Stein (D): 49, Mark Robinson (R): 35 (46-45 Harris)

• MA Ballot: MassInc for WBUR and CommonWealth Beacon: Psychedelics question: No: 44, Yes: 42 (60-32 Harris)

• MA Ballot: MassInc: Raise minimum wage for tipped workers: Yes: 43, No: 40

• RI Ballot: MassInc for Rhode Island Current: Constitutional convention: Yes: 36, No: 33 (53-40 Harris)

A recent poll of Massachusetts from the University of New Hampshire showed large leads for both of these ballot measures. 

Ad Roundup

• DE-Sen: Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)

• MD-Sen: Maryland's Future - pro-Larry Hogan (R) (part of $18 million buy)

• MT-Sen: American Crossroads - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc); Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Tester

• NE-Sen-A: Dan Osborn (I) - anti-Deb Fischer (R-inc)

• NJ-Sen: Andy Kim (D)

• NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich (D-inc) - anti-Nella Domenici (R)

• NV-Sen: Win It Back (Club for Growth affiliate) - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• OH-Sen: SLF - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc)

• PA-Sen: SLF - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)

• NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D)

• NH-Gov: Kelly Ayotte (R) - anti-Joyce Craig (D); New Hampshire Democratic Party - anti-Ayotte

• AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (D) - anti-Juan Ciscomani (R-inc); DCCC - anti-Ciscomani

• CA-09: Kevin Lincoln (R)

• CA-13: John Duarte (R-inc)

• CA-22: DCCC - anti-David Valadao (R-inc)

• CA-27: George Whitesides (D) - anti-Mike Garcia (R-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• CA-45: League of Conservation Voters - anti-Michelle Steel (R-inc)

• CO-08: DCCC - anti-Gabe Evans (R)

• CT-05: Jahana Hayes (D-inc) and the DCCC - anti-George Logan (R); NRCC - anti- Hayes

• IA-01: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc) and the NRCC

• IA-03: NRCC - anti-Lanon Baccam (D)

• ME-02: NRCC - anti-Jared Golden (D-inc); DCCC - anti-Austin Theriault (R)

• MI-03: Hillary Scholten (D-inc) - anti-Paul Hudson (R)

• MI-07: Tom Barrett (R); Curtis Hertel (D): DCCC - anti-Barrett

• MI-08: LCV - anti-Paul Junge (R)

• MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc) - anti-Joe Teirab (R)

• NC-01: NRCC - anti-Don Davis (D-inc); DCCC - anti-Laurie Buckhout (R)

• NM-02: Yvette Herrell (R) - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc); DCCC - anti-Herrell (in English and Spanish)

• NV-02: Mark Amodei (R-inc)

• NV-04: Fairshake - pro-Steven Horsford (D-inc)

• NY-01: John Avlon (D) - anti-Nick LaLota (R-inc)

• NY-04: LCV - anti-Anthony D’Esposito (R-inc)

• NY-18: Pat Ryan (D-inc) - anti-Alison Esposito (R)

• NY-19: DCCC - anti-Marc Molinaro (R-inc) 

• NY-22: NRCC - anti-John Mannion (D)

• OH-09: LCV - anti-Derek Merrin (R); DCCC - anti-Merrin

• OH-13: DCCC - anti-Kevin Coughlin (R)

• OR-05: Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-inc) - anti-Janelle Bynum (D); DCCC - anti-Chavez-DeRemer

• TN-07: Megan Barry (D)

• VA-02: LCV - anti-Jen Kiggans (R-inc)

• WI-01: Peter Barca (D) - anti-Bryan Steil (R-inc) 

• FL Ballot: Vote No On 3 - anti-marijuana amendment

• FL Ballot: Yes on 4 Florida - pro-abortion amendment (in Spanish)

• MO Ballot: Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - pro-abortion amendment

• NV Ballot: Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom - pro-abortion amendment