Morning Digest: Why the GOP is in a 'panic' over one Senate race and is close to giving up on another

GOP polling collapses in a red state while funders spurn a swing state

Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) (credit: Deb Fischer campaign website)

Leading Off

NE-Sen-A, NV-Sen

Republicans have reportedly been in a "panic" about Sen. Deb Fischer's bid for reelection in conservative Nebraska, while they appear close to giving up on Sam Brown's hopes of unseating Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in the perennial battleground of Nevada.

Those worries about Fischer, as detailed by Punchbowl News, come as her own internal polling shows her position slipping and her campaign pleads for more financial help. At the same time, a new memo from the Senate Leadership Fund obtained by Politico’s Ally Mutnick warns that Nebraska "has emerged as a serious trouble-spot" and says the PAC is "now polling to assess whether intervention is necessary to protect the seat."

The latest polling we have seen is not especially comforting for the GOP. In a new survey taken at the start of October, Torchlight Strategies finds Fischer leading independent Dan Osborn 48-42 even as respondents favor Donald Trump 57-37.

But while that data is likely intended to reassure Republicans after a series of recent polls that showed Osborn narrowly ahead, it represents a massive collapse in Fischer's margins—as her own pollster sees the race.

Back in mid-July, Torchlight had Fischer winning in a 50-24 landslide. That earlier poll found another 9% going to Kerry Eddy, the nominee for the Legal Marijuana NOW Party who went on to drop out and back Osborn. Her departure from the race, though, can't account for Osborn nearly doubling his level of support in his opponent's poll.

Punchbowl relays that, while Republicans profess to have "little fear" that Fischer will lose, they're angry that they've had to spend money to defend what was supposed to be a safe seat. Senate Minority Whip John Thune acknowledged those complaints, telling Punchbowl that the contest has "been a lot closer than people thought it would be."

But even as Thune insisted that "the votes are coming home," Fischer's team is openly asking for an even greater infusion of resources.

"With proper funding Senator Fischer will be able to tell her story," Torchlight's memo says, suggesting that only added funding and further attacks on Osborn "will put this race to bed."

Fischer's ask comes despite the fact that, according to recent data from AdImpact, her side is set to outspend Osborn's on the airwaves $4.5 million to $3.3 million during the final weeks of the race.

Money worries and poor polling are also dragging down Republican hopes in Nevada, where Brown has never led in a single survey. New data from AdImpact also reveals that Rosen and her allies have booked more than $20 million in ad time from Oct. 11 through Election Day, which is more than four times as much as Brown's side has reserved.

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The Wesleyan Media Project, utilizing data from Vivvix CMAG, also finds that Silver State voters have already been exposed to considerably more advertising from Rosen's camp. The study finds that Democrats ran 62% of the roughly 7,600 Senate ads that aired in the state from Sept. 23 to Oct. 6.

The NRSC says it still believes in Brown's prospects, but its recent actions have sent the opposite message.

Mutnick reported on Oct. 2 that the committee canceled its planned $7.4 million independent expenditure that was intended to last for the rest of the campaign so that it could instead run "hybrid" ads with Brown, a tactic it has deployed across the country as part of a cost-saving move.

But the Nevada Independent's Gabby Birenbaum wrote on Thursday that the NRSC had booked all of $330,000 in hybrid ads so far—less than 5% of the booking the committee canceled at the start of the month.

Brown is not the only swing-state Senate nominee who's been neglected by national Republicans. In neighboring Arizona, Kari Lake has suffered a similar fate. Wesleyan relays that Democrats ran over 70% of all ads during the recent two-week period it analyzed, while AdImpact reports that Ruben Gallego and his side enjoy a $23 million to $6 million edge in ad reservations for the rest of the campaign.

However, while Senate Republicans have long been bearish about the prospects of Lake, an election conspiracy theorist who has struggled to bring in money, Brown was supposed to be a top-tier candidate. An unnamed Silver State GOP operative, though, tells NOTUS' Alex Roarty that what Brown has done instead is "run a very, very, very bad campaign, one of the worst campaigns we've seen in Nevada in a while."

Both Republicans and Democrats, though, offered different explanations for why things have gone so badly for Brown. The same GOP source noted to Roarty that Rosen's ads have "pretty much been up nonstop since the spring." They added, "And Sam doesn't have the resources to do that and didn't compensate for that by going out and campaigning."

Democrats, however, argue that a high-profile media event this winter helped sink the challenger. Brown told NBC in February that he opposed a national abortion ban in a story in which his wife also disclosed that she'd had an abortion before meeting him.

But while observers at the time wondered if this interview could make it tougher for Rosen to portray Brown as an anti-abortion zealot, she responded by highlighting the hardline stances her opponent had adopted during his failed 2014 bid for a seat in the Texas state House and in his 2022 primary campaign for Nevada's other U.S. Senate seat. 

"You can run a spot that has Sam looking into the camera, stressing himself as a pro-choice candidate," a Democratic strategist told Roarty. "But he's got to be able to stand in that space in the long term. And that's a real problem for him."

The polls agree that Brown does indeed have a serious problem. Rosen leads Brown 50-41 in 538's averages even as Kamala Harris sits on a minuscule 47.6-47.1 edge in this closely divided swing state. And Brown's side is running out of time to turn things around in a state where most of the vote will be cast before Election Day: Nevada election officials will mail out ballots to all registered voters on Wednesday, while in-person early voting begins three days later.

3Q Fundraising

• AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (D): $2.97 million raised

• NC-01: Don Davis (D-inc): $2 million raised

Senate

WI-Sen

The conservative Senate Leadership Fund announced Friday it was reserving an additional $6.6 million in ad time in Wisconsin to unseat Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Semafor's Burgess Everett, who first reported the news, says that this brings the super PAC's planned spending in the race to $23.6 million.

House

NJ-07

The DCCC has released a new poll from its in-house analytics team showing Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. with a small 50-48 lead on Democrat Sue Altman, but the committee has yet to start spending on Altman's behalf in North Jersey's swingy 7th District.

The DCCC's poll is the second recent survey to find a 2-point race; an Altman internal shared a few days earlier similarly put Kean up 47-45. Both also see a tight contest at the presidential level, with DCCC giving Kamala Harris a skinny 49-48 edge and Altman's poll, which was conducted by Global Strategy Group, finding a 47-all tie.

Altman has proven to be a strong fundraiser, taking in $2.1 million in the three-month period ending Sept. 30 (Kean has yet to share his haul). But the 7th District, which includes suburban and exurban areas west of New York City, is contained entirely in the city's media market, which is the most expensive in the country.

Polling Pile

• AZ-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Ruben Gallego (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 41 (50-45 Trump) (late Sept.: 49-43 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon for NBC6 and Telemundo 51: Rick Scott (R-inc): 48, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 41 (49-43 Trump)

• MS-Sen: Change Research (D) for Ty Pinkins: Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48, Ty Pinkins (D): 35

• PA-Sen: Siena for the New York Times and Philadelphia Inquirer: Bob Casey (D-inc): 48, Dave McCormick (R): 44 (49-45 Harris) (Mid-Sept.: 49-40 Casey)

• CA-41: Global Strategy Group (D) for House Majority PAC: Ken Calvert (R-inc): 45, Will Rollins (D): 45 

• AZ Ballot: Siena: Abortion amendment: Yes: 52, No: 33 (late Sept.: 58-34 Yes)

• FL Ballot: Mason-Dixon: Marijuana amendment: Yes: 58, No: 35 (note: needs 60% to pass)

• FL Ballot: Mason-Dixon: Abortion amendment: Yes: 61, No: 33 (note: needs 60% to pass)

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D)

• NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich (D-inc) - anti-Nella Domenici (R)

• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc)

• VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D-inc) (here, here, and here

• IN-Gov: Jennifer McCormick (D) - anti-Mike Braun (R)

• MO-Gov: Crystal Quade (D) - anti-Mike Kehoe (R)

• AK-AL: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Mary Peltola (D-inc)

• CA-16: Evan Low (D) - anti-Sam Liccardo (D)

• CT-05: DCCC - anti-George Logan (R)

• IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc) - anti-Lanon Baccam (D)

• NM-02: CLF - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc)

• NY-22: CLF - anti-John Mannion (D)

• OH-09: NRCC - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)

• OH-13: NRCC - anti-Emilia Sykes (D-inc)

• NC-AG: Jeff Jackson (D) - anti-Dan Bishop (R)