Morning Digest: Upcoming specials put Democratic majorities on the line in two states

State lawmakers are joining Congress, but now their vacant seats will be new battlegrounds

The race is on to hold Rep.-elect Kristen McDonald Rivet’s seat in the Michigan Senate (credit: Kristen McDonald Rivet for Congress)

Leading Off

MI State Senate, VA State Senate

Two closely divided legislative chambers will soon host special elections that could determine whether Democrats retain their majorities in both after last week's elections elevated multiple state lawmakers to Congress.

The most competitive race will take place in Michigan's 35th Senate District, a swingy seat located at the crook between the state's Thumb and the rest of its "mitten." Democrats were elated when Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet held the open 8th Congressional District by defeating Republican Paul Junge 51-45, but the seat she leaves behind will be a challenging hold in a chamber where Democrats have just a 20-18 advantage.

According to new calculations from The Downballot based on unofficial returns, Kamala Harris carried the 35th District by just a 50-49 margin, a touch closer than Joe Biden's 51-48 win here four years ago. And when McDonald Rivet first won this seat in 2022, the race was also tight: She defeated Republican Annette Glenn, then a member of the state House, 53-47.

Glenn is one of several potential candidates who could run in the forthcoming special election, notes Kyle Davidson of the Michigan Advance, but it may be a while before the contest comes into focus. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has wide discretion when it comes to setting a date, and she may not call an election until May 6, when it could be consolidated with local races taking place around the state. Primary voters would also first have the chance to pick nominees.

Should Republicans flip the seat, the Senate would be split equally between the parties, though Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist would be able to break ties on behalf of Democrats. But after losing control of the state House last week, expect Democrats to fight fiercely to keep their majority in the Senate.

The downside risk for Democrats is much greater in the other chamber in play. In the Virginia Senate, the party holds a similar 21-19 edge, but in the event of a deadlock, the tie-breaking vote would go to a Republican, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earl-Sears.

That's a fate Democrats will labor intensely to avoid as they defend the 32nd District in Northern Virginia's Loudoun County, just outside of Washington, D.C. The seat will soon become vacant thanks to Sen. Suhas Subramanyan's successful bid to hold the open 10th Congressional District, which saw him defeat Republican Mike Clancy 52-48.

That win, however, was narrower than what NoVa Democrats are accustomed to, mirroring the outcome across the region at the top of the ticket. In the 32nd District in particular, Harris won by a 59-38 margin, according to calculations from The Downballot that again rely on unofficial results—a steep drop from Biden's 67-32 spread in 2020.

Ordinarily, Harris' 21-point win should provide sufficient cushion, but wintertime special elections have sometimes proven troublesome for Virginia Democrats. In one notorious case in January of 2014, Democrat Lynwood Lewis held a vacant Senate seat—which Barack Obama had comfortably won 57-42—by just nine votes in a race when control of the chamber was also on the line.

A second Senate seat will also see a special election soon, too, but Republicans should have little difficulty holding the deep red 10th District in the Richmond area. That district will become vacant as a result of Republican Sen. John McGuire's easy win in the 5th Congressional District, following his narrow defeat of GOP Rep. Bob Good in the primary earlier this year.

Unlike in Michigan, these two vacancies will be resolved quickly, and without traditional primaries. Instead, both parties in the 32nd District will hold informal "firehouse" primaries on Saturday, smaller affairs that typically see low turnout. Senate President Pro Tem Louise Lucas has set the general election for Jan. 7, something she—rather than Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin—has the power to do because the legislature is still technically in session.

Lucas has not yet said when the special election to replace McGuire will take place, and neither party appears to have said when they'll pick nominees. They’ll likely do so soon, though, so that McGuire's successor can participate when lawmakers formally reconvene in January.

Election Recaps

Race Calls

• AZ-Sen: Democrat Ruben Gallego claimed victory over Republican Kari Lake on Monday in Arizona's Senate race. With almost all of the vote counted, Gallego leads 50-48 in the contest to succeed Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.

Senate Republicans once planned to make this seat a top target even after it became clear that Lake, a former local news anchor who still denies she lost the 2022 race for governor, would be their nominee. Lake, though, proved her skeptics right as she struggled to raise money, win over Republicans appalled by her far-right positions, and even give up her quest to prove she's somehow Arizona's rightful governor. 

Donald Trump's 52-47 victory in the state was still almost enough to lift Lake to victory, but Gallego's well-funded campaign secured him enough crossover support to make him the Grand Canyon State's first Latino senator.

Republicans will likely enter the 119th Congress with a 53-47 majority in the Senate after flipping four seats. However, while the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Republican Dave McCormick last week, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is hoping there are enough untabulated provisional ballots left to change the outcome.

• CA-27: Democrat George Whitesides secured victory in California's 27th District on Monday evening after Republican Rep. Mike Garcia conceded. Whitesides leads 51-49 with 83% counted in a constituency that includes the Antelope Valley in northern Los Angeles County.

• Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors: Republicans preserved their majority on the five-member Maricopa County Board of Supervisors following Republican hardliner Mark Stewart’s 52-48 victory over Democrat Democrat Joel Navarro in the 1st District.

The race for the 3rd District remains unresolved, as Republican Kate Brophy McGee holds a 50.05-49.95 edge―a margin of 359 votes―over Democrat Daniel Valenzuela. If Brophy McGee maintains her lead once all the ballots are counted, Republicans would keep the 4-1 majority they entered the election with.

Senate

OH-Sen, OH-Gov

Republican Gov. Mike DeWine told reporters last week that the person he selects to replace J.D. Vance as Ohio's new senator will be "someone who will hold that seat—I hope for a long time," a declaration that rules out the possibility of a caretaker appointment. A special election would be held in November of 2026 for the final two years of Vance's term, with the winner facing reelection in 2028 for a full six-year term.

Buckeye State political observers have speculated about a Senate vacancy ever since Donald Trump tapped Vance to be his running mate back in July, but we're not going to dive down that rabbit hole just yet. This is an election with only one voter—DeWine—and the results may not be announced for another two months. Unless the governor himself tips his hand, there's simply no way to know whom he might choose.

However, there's already plenty of chatter that DeWine, who is barred from seeking a third term in two years' time, could appoint someone who might otherwise seek to challenge his preferred successor, Lt. Gov. Jon Husted. But one of those likely rivals, Attorney General Dave Yost, immediately ended any talk he'd accept such an offer on election night when he told reporters, "I would not accept that appointment."

Governors

NJ-Gov

Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman endorsed Newark Mayor Ras Baraka on Monday in next year's busy Democratic primary to succeed their termed-out Gov. Phil Murphy. In an op-ed in the New Jersey Globe, Watson Coleman touted Baraka's record as mayor and praised him as the one option who is "truly unbeholden" to special interests.

Baraka, who would be the Garden State's first Black governor, currently faces Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney in the contest for the Democratic nod. Insider NJ's Max Pizarro also wrote last week that state Democrats anticipate an "imminent" launch from both Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, who were both just reelected to Congress by double digits.

It's also possible that more names will come forward now that the 2024 elections are over, though time is growing short to mount a serious campaign. New Jersey usually holds primaries in early June, though Ballotpedia says the state has not yet scheduled next year's nominating contests.

Jersey Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping to win their first governor's race since 2013, and the state's hard swing to the right last week―Donald Trump lost just 52-46, four years after falling short by a much wider 57-41 margin―gives the GOP reason to be hopeful about replacing Murphy.

A quartet of Republicans have been running for a while: state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former state Sen. Ed Durr, conservative radio host Bill Spadea, and Jack Ciattarelli, a former assemblyman who lost to Murphy by a shockingly tight 51-48 spread in 2021. And just like on the Democratic side, this list could yet swell.

NY-Gov

Former Rep. Lee Zeldin announced Monday that he'd accepted an offer from Donald Trump to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, a decision that likely means that the New York Republican won't seek a rematch against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in two years.

Zeldin's 53-47 defeat in 2022 was the closest any Republican came to winning this office since Republican Gov. George Pataki secured his final term in 2002, and the former congressman has hinted that he wants to finish the job. It's impossible to say, though, whether Zeldin's decision to take the EPA job is proof that he won't run again—or whether, like many cabinet appointees during the first Trump administration, he expects to have a short tenure.

Other Republicans, though, are sure to take a look at running while Zeldin returns to Washington. One oft-mentioned name belongs to Rep. Mike Lawler, who won reelection 52-46 last week following an expensive battle against Democrat Mondaire Jones. Lawler fueled speculation when he sent a video to the state Legislative Correspondents Association telling the gathering, "I wish I could have been with you in person and shared some laughs, but we'll have plenty of time for that when I'm governor in a couple of years."

While the GOP lost three House seats here last week, Lawler wasn't the only Empire State Republican who had something to smile about. Though Trump still didn't come anywhere close to carrying the state where he was born, his 55-44 deficit was less than half the size of his 61-38 loss from 2020 (though late-counted ballots could nudge those numbers slightly).

Hochul, who announced in July that she'd run for reelection, has posted weak approval ratings for years and could face a primary challenge. A mid-October Siena College poll showed her underwater at 41-51, though that was better than her 39-56 score in the school's prior survey.

WI-Gov

While Wisconsin politicos are now focused on the April election that will decide whether liberals will keep their new majority on the state Supreme Court, there's already speculation about whether Democratic Gov. Tony Evers will seek reelection 2026.

Evers, who at 73 is the second-oldest governor in state history, joked last year that people could call him "Three-Term Tony," though he's said since then that he hasn't made up his mind.

"We have to assume that Evers is the nominee until he tells us he isn't," longtime state Democratic consultant Joe Zepecki told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel this week as everyone awaits the governor's plans.

Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, meanwhile, informed the paper that he's interested in claiming Evers' job and will "make that decision after the Supreme Court race." In 2023, Tiffany spent almost half the year flirting with a bid against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, but he ultimately opted to remain in the House.

The paper also lists former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, and businessman Bill Berrien as possible options, though there's no word as to whether any of these potential candidates are considering. Kleefisch ran for governor two years ago only to lose the primary to wealthy businessman Tim Michels, who in turn lost to Evers.

The Journal Sentinel also relays that one unnamed Republican also mentioned Eric Hovde's name after his narrow loss last week to Baldwin. However, there's also no indication if Hovde, who turned down the chance to take on Evers in 2022, is interested.

House

FL-06, NY-21

Donald Trump announced Monday that he'd chosen New York Rep. Elise Stefanik as his ambassador to the United Nations, while the Wall Street Journal reported later that evening that he'd also picked another Republican, Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, to serve as his national security adviser. Both decisions will likely set off the first House special elections of the new administration.

Florida's 6th District, which includes Daytona Beach and Palm Coast, favored Trump 61-38 in 2020, and the state's hard-right swing last week made the constituency even more conservative.

New York's 21st District, a sprawling constituency that includes the rural North Country near the Canadian border as well as part of the Albany area, likewise has been reliably Republican ever since Stefanik decisively won the 2014 contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Bill Owens. Four years ago, Trump prevailed here 57-41, and he almost certainly exceeded that baseline last week.

That doesn't mean, however, that the elections to replace Waltz and Stefanik will be dull.

Following Trump's first win in 2016, Republicans frequently struggled to win―and sometimes even lost―special elections on what should have been safely Republican turf thanks in large part to disproportionate turnout on the part of furious progressives. While both seats are still probably out of reach for Democrats, political observers will still look to Florida and New York for early clues about the new political environment.

Both parties will hold traditional primaries to pick candidates in the race to replace Waltz, and we'll take stock of the field as it develops. But the rules work differently in the contest to succeed Stefanik, who, unlike Waltz, requires Senate confirmation. 

Under New York law, leaders in the 15 counties that form the district will choose nominees rather than primary voters, and several Republicans have already surfaced as potential successors for Stefanik―including one of her current colleagues. An unnamed source tells Politico's Nick Reisman that Rep. Marc Molinaro, who narrowly lost reelection to the neighboring 19th District last week against Democrat Josh Riley, might seek the GOP nod.

Reisman notes that a spokesperson for the congressman, who still has not conceded his 51-49 defeat, didn't rule out the idea even as they insisted his current race "isn’t over." Molinaro's team instead praised Stefanik and added, "Her successor has big shoes to fill and must be ready to help advance Trump’s agenda on day one." (Molinaro ran for two different districts last cycle, losing a special for the old 19th, then winning the regular election for the new version.)

Assemblyman Chris Tague, who also chairs the Schoharie County GOP, was more up-front and acknowledged to Reisman he was interested. Tague's party post means that he'll be one of the people choosing a nominee, though Schoharie is home to less than 4% of Stefanik's constituents.

Rensselaer County Executive Steve McLaughlin, meanwhile, responded to Reisman's inquiries about his plans by texting back, "We’ll see." The reporter characterized McLaughlin's laconic reply as  "rather tepid" given his "seemingly omnipresent presence on X."

Assemblyman Robert Smullen, for his part, said he was reluctant to run but didn't say no, telling Reisman, "It’s a very demanding job, but we’ll see what progresses and what conversations are had." State Sen. Dan Stec, meanwhile, did not respond to Reisman's requests for comment.

The only Democrat the story mentions as a possible candidate is Assemblyman Billy Jones, who Reisman says is "under consideration."