Morning Digest: Virginia Democrats are hungry to flip the attorney general's post

But will the incumbent run again—or will it be an open seat?

Virginia Democrat Jay Jones (at left), who just kicked off a campaign for state attorney general (credit: Jay Jones website) 

Leading Off

VA-AG, VA-Gov

Virginia will hold some of next year's most important elections, and one top contest moved into higher gear on Tuesday when former Del. Jay Jones announced that he would enter the Democratic primary for attorney general, a post held by Republican Jason Miyares.

Jones, who would be the first African American elected to this office, made his long-awaited announcement about five months after Shannon Taylor, the commonwealth's attorney for Henrico County, launched her campaign for the Democratic nomination. Neither contender, though, knows whether they'll face Miyares or a different Republican a year from now.

Local political observers have long speculated that the GOP primary to replace Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is prohibited from seeking a second consecutive term, will be a battle between Miyares and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Earle-Sears did indeed enter the race in September, but Miyares has yet to reveal his plans. (While Virginia is the only state in the nation that still prevents sitting governors from seeking reelection, there are no term limits for its other statewide posts.)

Miyares, who responded to Earle-Sears' kickoff by arguing that the party needed to concentrate on the presidential race, is still keeping everyone guessing a week after Election Day. He only added to the intrigue on Tuesday when he responded to Jones' announcement with a tweet portraying both of his potential Democratic opponents as weak on crime. Miyares' post did not mention either Earle-Sears or Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who faces no intra-party opposition in her bid for governor.

Jones, for his part, is making his second run for attorney general after taking on two-term incumbent Mark Herring in the 2021 primary. Jones, who argued that Herring hadn't done enough to combat racism, earned the support of then-Gov. Ralph Northam in that contest, but he lost 57-43 after an expensive primary.

Several months later, Miyares became the first Latino elected to statewide office when he narrowly unseated Herring as Youngkin and Earle-Sears were also winning their respective races, also by close margins.

While Jones won reelection to the state House―Virginia allows candidates to seek two offices simultaneously―he soon announced that he was resigning ahead of the birth of his first child. However, in a letter explaining his departure, he was explicit in saying that his future might include "a run for Attorney General in 2025."

Jones has spent the ensuing years preparing his second campaign, banking endorsements from Northam, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, and other notables well ahead of his Tuesday kickoff.

Senate

FL-Sen

Donald Trump plans to nominate Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for secretary of state, according to multiple media reports on Monday evening. If Rubio's colleagues confirm him as America's top diplomat, it would be up to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to appoint his successor. A special election would take place in the fall of 2026 for the final two years of Rubio's term, and the seat would be on the ballot again in 2028 for a full six-year term.

IL-Sen

Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin told the Chicago Tribune on Monday that he's undecided about whether to seek a sixth term. The longtime Illinois senator, who has served in Congress since first winning a House seat in 1982 and turns 80 later this month, is the number-two Democrat in the chamber.

Governors

NJ-Gov

Both Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill will enter the 2025 Democratic primary for governor over the next week, reports the New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein. Gottheimer will announce his campaign on Friday, Wildstein says, while Sherrill will launch her bid the following Monday. Both parties already have busy primaries to succeed the termed-out incumbent, Democrat Phil Murphy.

SD-Gov, SD-Sen

Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he’d nominate Republican Gov. Kristi Noem for secretary of homeland security, a move that could transform the 2026 primary to lead dark red South Dakota.

If Noem, who is prohibited from seeking a third term, receives Senate confirmation, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden would take over, but he's not the only prominent Republican who has had his eyes on the governorship.

Both Rep. Dusty Johnson and state Attorney General Marty Jackley were prospective candidates for what was supposed to be an open-seat race, and neither of them has ruled out running against Rhoden should he ascend to the top job.

Johnson, who was elected in 2018 to replace Noem as the state's lone House member, told South Dakota Searchlight that he's "not making any political announcements anytime soon." Jackley, who lost that year's primary for governor 56-44 against Noem, likewise said, "Right now I'm focused on being the best attorney general I can be for South Dakota and doing the job South Dakotans elected me to do."

However, it's possible that they'll have the opportunity to replace a different Republican: KELO's Bob Mercer highlighted just after Election Day that Sen. Mike Rounds hasn't revealed his 2026 plans.

Rounds, who served as governor from 2003 to 2011, didn't rule out leaving the Senate to reclaim his old job last year, though he's shown no obvious interest since then. There's also been persistent talk that Noem could challenge Rounds for his Senate seat, though that was before Trump's victory paved the way for her to join his cabinet.

Rhoden is a former state legislator who in 2014 waged a long-shot bid for the Senate seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson. Rhoden, though, had trouble gaining traction against Rounds in a primary that included three other candidates. Rounds won 56-18 before prevailing in the general election to replace Johnson, who died last month.

That setback, though, didn't spell the end of Rhoden's career. He rejoined the legislature in 2016, and Noem went on to tap him as her running mate following her victory over Jackley in the 2018 primary.

Party delegates, who are responsible for picking the nominees for lieutenant governor and several other offices at a state convention, ratified Noem's choice ahead of what turned out to be an unexpectedly competitive general election. The Noem-Rhoden ticket ultimately prevailed by just a 51-48 margin against the Democratic team of Billie Sutton and Michelle Lavallee, a tight victory that nonetheless extended a GOP winning streak that began all the way back in 1978.

Noem won renomination four years later in a 76-24 blowout against state Rep. Steve Haugaard, a former House speaker who tried to run to the right of the hardline incumbent. Despite that drubbing, Haugaard then launched a bid to beat Rhoden at the convention.

Delegates voted 56-44 to keep the lieutenant governor on the ticket, but the Argus Leader characterized that relatively soft result as "something of a slap in the face to" Noem. The two, though, had no trouble securing reelection that fall.

House

CA-22, CA-49

In two late calls of California House races from the Associated Press, Republican Rep. David Valadao has won reelection over Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd District while Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has secured another term by defeating Republican Matt Gunderson in the 49th. Currently, Valadao leads 53-47 while Levin is up 52-48, in both cases with about 80% of the vote tallied.

CA-47

Democrat Dave Min secured victory Monday in California’s 47th District after Republican Scott Baugh conceded. Min holds a 51-49 advantage with 86% tabulated in this Orange County constituency.

FL-06

Two Florida Republicans expressed interest in running in the upcoming special election to succeed Rep. Michael Waltz in the conservative 6th District even before Donald Trump confirmed Tuesday afternoon that he'd picked Waltz to be his national security advisor.

One familiar name belongs to Lake County Commissioner-elect Anthony Sabatini, a far-right former state representative who unsuccessfully campaigned for two neighboring congressional districts. Sabatini said he'd be "taking a strong look at this seat now that it will be open" after the Wall Street Journal broke the news of Waltz's selection.

Sabatini, who had a terrible relationship with his party's leaders in the state House, competed in the busy 2022 primary for the once-competitive 7th District, which Republicans had just gerrymandered. Kevin McCarthy's allies, though, aided a super PAC that ran ads against him, with one later telling the Washington Post that Sabatini was a "legislative terrorist[] whose goal was fame." Sabatini lost 38-24 to Cory Mills, who went on to easily win the general election.

Sabatini soon launched another campaign in the 11th District against Republican Rep. Daniel Webster, a veteran incumbent who had posted a surprisingly weak showing against far-right troll Laura Loomer in 2022. Sabatini generated national attention during that race when he declared, "We need to extinguish the left," but Trump gave his endorsement to Webster.

Sabatini abruptly announced he'd instead seek a seat on the Lake County Commission less than an hour after Trump backed the congressman, and this time, there were no national forces to keep him out of office. Sabatini won the primary 48-41 against incumbent Doug Shields, who had the support of conservationists, and prevailed last week without opposition.

Meanwhile, Action News Jax's Ben Becker reports that, according to unnamed sources, Jacksonville City Councilmember Rory Diamond plans to get in. Diamond did not confirm the news but told Becker he would reveal more in the near future.

None of Jacksonville's Duval County is in the 6th District, though members of the House are not required to live in the districts they represent. (Most do.) Becker says, though, that Diamond is stationed with the Florida National Guard in Palm Coast, which is in Waltz's district.

A few other names are also circulating. Florida Politics' A.G. Gancarski lists state Reps. Webster Barnaby and Chase Tramont, former House Speaker Paul Renner, and former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar as possible GOP candidates.

Ballot Measures

Los Angeles County, CA Ballot

Supporters of a plan that would dramatically transform Los Angeles County's local government declared victory on Monday in their quest to reshape America's largest county.

Measure G, as the proposal is known, has held a small but stubborn 51-49 lead over the last week, an advantage that County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath says should hold firm even as officials tally remaining votes.

A win for Measure G would mean that voters would elect an executive by 2028 to lead a heavily Democratic community that is larger than 40 different states. That person would serve about one in four Californians, a perch that could one day prove to be a major asset in a statewide race. The measure would also expand the Board of Supervisors from five members to nine by 2032 and make other changes.

Like almost everywhere else in California, Los Angeles County currently has five elected supervisors who together have the power to appoint and remove the county's top administrator. (In Los Angeles County, that role is called the chief executive officer.)

Just one of the Golden State's 58 counties operates differently: the City and County of San Francisco, which directly elects its mayor and has an 11-member Board of Supervisors.

Horvath and other Measure G backers argue that their plan will make county government more efficient and say that a larger Board of Supervisors will better reflect the county's diversity. Supervisor Hilda Solis, another supporter, has highlighted the fact that she's the lone Hispanic supervisor for a county where close to half of all residents are Latino, while Asian American groups have similarly pointed out that the body has never had an Asian American supervisor.

Opponents, including several unions representing public safety workers and government employees, pushed back by predicting that Measure G would have unpredictable consequences for the county's governance and finances and predicted feuding between the executive and the board. Those arguments, though, don't appear to have been quite enough to prevent its passage.

NH Ballot

A constitutional amendment to raise New Hampshire's mandatory judicial retirement age has failed after it fell just short of the required two-thirds majority.

According to results from the secretary of state's office, the measure, which would have increased the retirement age from 70 to 75, earned the support of 65% of voters while 35% were opposed. Had it passed, two of the state's five Supreme Court justices could have continued serving until 2031, but instead, Republican Gov.-elect Kelly Ayotte will appoint replacements in 2026.

Mayors & County Leaders

Austin, TX Mayor

Austin Mayor Kirk Watson is clinging to the barest of majorities a week after Election Day, but it will likely be several more days before we know whether he's avoided a Dec. 14 runoff against nonprofit head Carmen Llanes Pulido.

Watson, a Democrat, currently is taking 50.01% of the vote in this officially nonpartisan race, while Llanes Pulido, who identifies as a progressive, leads her nearest opponent 20-17 for second place. KXAN's Grace Reader writes that Texas law requires all ballots to be tabulated by Nov. 19, though local election authorities anticipate finishing before then. Llanes Pulido has indicated she could request a runoff after the vote is certified.

If Watson, who previously served as mayor from 1997 to 2001 before starting a long career in the state Senate, is forced into a runoff, he has reason to hope he'll do better with a smaller electorate. Two years ago, state Rep. Celia Israel outpaced him 41-35 in the first round, but Watson prevailed 50.4-49.6 the following month.

That contest was for an abbreviated two-year term because of a 2021 ballot measure that moved future mayoral races to presidential cycles. This time around, Watson and his rival are seeking a full four-year term, though the incumbent has enjoyed a huge fundraising advantage. Llanes Pulido, though, argued that the mayor has done a poor job combatting cost of living increases and providing essential services.