Morning Digest: Georgia's titanic midterm elections get off to a very early start

It's game on in the race for governor—and likely will be soon for Senate

Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr (R) is the first major candidate to enter the 2026 race for governor. He won’t be the last. (Credit: Chris Carr campaign)

Leading Off

GA-Gov, GA-Sen

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr announced Thursday that he would run to succeed Gov. Brian Kemp in 2026, a move that marks the start of what will be a titanic election cycle in Georgia.

Kemp is keeping everyone guessing as to whether he'll challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff or instead seek an even higher office. Ossoff, though, will be a top GOP target no matter who runs against him.

Carr is the first major candidate from either party to launch a campaign to replace the term-limited Kemp. Greg Bluestein writes in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Carr, unlike several of his potential primary foes, isn't able to self-fund, so he has good reason to begin preparing early.

The Associated Press' Jeff Amy also points out that the Peach State prohibits state officials like the attorney general from raising money when the legislature is in session, so Carr has an incentive to start now before lawmakers convene for three months starting in mid-January.

Carr was first named to his current post by then-Gov. Nathan Deal in 2016 after the previous incumbent, Sam Olens, left to lead Kennesaw State University. Two years later, he won a tight race to stay in office for a full four-year term.

But along with Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Carr infuriated Donald Trump following the 2020 election by refusing to go along with his plan to steal Georgia’s electoral votes. Trump responded by supporting primary challenges to all three in the midterms. Carr, though, overwhelmingly turned back election conspiracy theorist John Gordon 74-26, while Kemp and Raffensperger also pulled off convincing victories.

Carr went on to prevail 52-47 against Democrat Jen Jordan that fall and has remained an ardent conservative during his second term, though he's still far from winning his way back into Trump's good graces—and he's indicated he may not try to.

"I support good conservative policies that he’s going to push," the attorney general told Bluestein, "But it’s way too early to worry about his potential endorsement." In a separate interview with Amy, Carr indicated that he wouldn't try to refashion himself as a MAGA diehard.

"This race isn’t going to be about how loud somebody yells or screams," he predicted. "[I]t’s going to be about a conservative record. And I’m the one that has that."

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, by contrast, is one of Trump's top allies in the state, and, says Bluestein, is likely to enter the race sometime next year. Jones is personally very wealthy and could spend freely, as could Raffensberger, another potential candidate named by Bluestein—either for governor or Senate.

Yet another well-heeled Republican, former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, didn't rule out running for either post during an appearance this week on the AJC's "Politically Georgia" podcast, though she didn't specify which one might be of greater interest.

After losing her seat to Democrat Raphael Warnock in a 2021 runoff, Loeffler has since reemerged as a prominent GOP donor. She doesn't sound like she's in a hurry to decide on anything, though, saying, "[R]ight now I know that 2025 holds a lot of problems to solve. We have municipal elections coming up."

The Democratic primary for governor could also be a busy one. Bluestein writes that two of the party's most prominent names, Rep. Lucy McBath and DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond, both "seem likely to run."

McBath didn't rule anything out last month when the AJC asked her if she was looking to succeed Kemp, saying, "I’m very humbled that people believe that I have the ability to govern and to govern wisely and with common sense and with their best interests at heart." Thurmond, who is about to leave office because of term limits, likewise told FOX 5 this week, "I'm going to leave all options open."

The party's last two nominees for governor also haven't closed the door on anything. 11Alive in June asked former state Sen. Jason Carter if he was interested in another bid for the post that his grandfather, former President Jimmy Carter, held in the early 1970s. The younger Carter, who lost to incumbent Nathan Deal in 2014, responded he was "not ruling it out."

Former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, who lost to Kemp in 2018 and 2022, likewise provided a similar answer in August when the station asked if she was considering a third bid. Abrams, like McBath and Thurmond, would be Georgia's first Black chief executive.

Kemp, meanwhile, seems to be in no hurry to reveal his plans. The Republican Governors Association announced Wednesday that he would serve as its new chair for the coming year, but he'd still have time to campaign for another office once his tenure ends. However, the AP's Charlotte Kramon notes that there's talk that Kemp could instead wage a bid for the White House in four years' time.

Rep. Buddy Carter, for his part, told Punchbowl News this week that he’d consider taking on Ossoff if Kemp stays out of the Senate race. “If the governor runs, he will clear the field in a Republican primary,” predicted Carter, who is not related to the former president. “If he doesn’t run, we’ll see. God’s got a plan.”

Anyone who ends up running for office in 2026 could have as many as four different elections ahead of them. Georgia, like many other Southern states, requires candidates to win a majority of the vote to avoid a primary runoff—a rule that also applies to the general election.

Senate

ME-Sen, ME-Gov, ME-02

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden did not rule out a bid for Senate or governor in two years, telling the Portland Press Herald's Rachel Ohm Tuesday, "I don't know if I would run for a statewide office in '26." He added that he was also unsure about seeking reelection to his current post, saying, "I honestly don’t know if I will run."

The congressman won his fourth term this month 50.3-49.7 against Republican Austin Theriault even as Donald Trump was carrying the 2nd District 53-44. Democrats could have a difficult time holding Golden's northern Maine seat without him to defend it.

While many Democrats would be thrilled if Golden challenged Republican Sen. Susan Collins, it's unlikely he'd take her on: Golden is a former Collins staffer, and he remained neutral during her competitive reelection battle against Democrat Sara Gideon in 2020.

The congressman, though, might be more interested in a campaign to replace Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who cannot seek a third consecutive term. Golden hinted as much to Ohm when he said he didn't want his young children to move to Washington, D.C., though he doesn't appear to have said anything about this office specifically.

NC-Sen

North Carolina's outgoing lieutenant governor, the infamous Mark Robinson, played down speculation this week that he might challenge Sen. Thom Tillis in the 2026 GOP primary, though he didn't quite reject the idea. 

"That is not on my radar at all," Robinson told WRAL's Brian Murphy on Wednesday. "Running for office is not on my radar at all. Certainly not." There are very few GOP leaders anywhere in America who would be sorry if Robinson, whose disastrous campaign for governor ended with a 55-40 drubbing by Democrat Josh Stein, never puts running for office back on his radar.

Tillis, though, might have much more to worry from the man that Stein and Robinson competed to succeed, Democrat Roy Cooper. The termed-out governor has deflected questions about his interest in such a campaign, saying in August, "[W]hen I get to the end of my term—I do like public service—I'll see what's next."

Other Democrats could also run, especially if Cooper sits the race out. Outgoing Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel, who opted not to run for a second term after Republican lawmakers made his seat unwinnably red, recently told Bloomberg's Zach Cohen that he intends to announce a Senate bid in February. Nickel, however, also informed WRAL last week that he hasn't made a final decision. 

The station also mentions Attorney General-elect Jeff Jackson as a possible Senate candidate. But Jackson, a congressman who successfully ran statewide after the GOP also gerrymandered his district, has not given any indication that he's thinking about another campaign so soon.

PA-Sen

Democratic Sen. Bob Casey conceded to Republican Dave McCormick on Thursday, bringing to a close the last uncalled Senate race of the cycle. McCormick's tight 48.8-48.6 victory, which came as Donald Trump carried Pennsylvania 50-49, ensures that the GOP will hold a 53-47 majority when Congress convenes in January.

Governors

AZ-Gov

Charlie Kirk, the hard-right activist who leads the well-funded Turning Point USA, is at the center of what the Washington Post's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez calls a "three-week old rumor" that he could challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in Arizona. Sanchez writes that a spokesperson for TPUSA wouldn't comment on the possibility.

MI-Gov

Donald Trump announced Wednesday evening that he'd chosen former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who chairs the Michigan GOP, to serve as ambassador to Canada, a move that likely takes the former congressman off the list of potential candidates for governor.

House

FL-01, FL-Gov

Just over a week after getting nominated for attorney general and resigning from Congress, former Rep. Matt Gaetz withdrew from consideration on Thursday, saying he was "becoming a distraction" for Donald Trump's transition.

Gaetz's abrupt decision, which makes his nomination tied for third-shortest in history, came just minutes before CNN reported that an unnamed woman had told the House Ethics Committee that she'd had had two sexual encounters with him at a party in 2017 when she was 17 years old. A day earlier, Republicans on the committee voted to block releasing the results of its investigation into this allegation and others against Gaetz.

Gaetz did not address his political future on Thursday, but it's possible he could try to reclaim his seat when the House reconvenes in January. While Gaetz resigned from the current session of Congress last week, he hedged regarding the upcoming session in his letter of resignation, saying only, "I do not intend to take the oath of office for the same office in the 119th Congress."

Should Gaetz pull an about-face, it's unlikely anyone could stop him. A federal court in Oklahoma noted two years ago that a prospective resignation from Congress was likely not legally enforceable, barring a vote by two-thirds of a chamber's members to expel the person in question. And that case concerned a purportedly "irrevocable" letter of resignation from then-Sen. Jim Inhofe; Gaetz's letter was much more equivocal.

At least one Florida Republican who recently announced she'd run in the still-unscheduled special election to succeed Gaetz sounds happy to stand aside. State Rep. Michelle Salzman told Politico that she would "fully support whatever he wants" and would "absolutely" drop her bid if the ex-congressman were to have a change of heart. If he did return to the House, though, it's likely the Ethics Committee would publish its report.

Gaetz could instead use his newfound free time to pursue a different office: Florida's governorship, which will be open in 2026 because Ron DeSantis is barred by law from seeking a third consecutive term. Earlier this year, Gaetz declined to rule out such a bid, telling the Tampa Bay Times' Kirby Wilson that Trump "keeps telling my wife she'd make a great First Lady of Florida." 

But that would-be first lady, Ginger Gaetz, hinted on Thursday that, whatever happens next, her spouse won't be returning to the House. She responded to the news of her husband withdrawing from consideration as attorney general by tweeting a picture of the two walking up the Capitol steps with the caption, "The end of an era."

NY-21

Businessman Anthony Constantino on Wednesday became the first Republican to enter the upcoming special election to succeed GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik in New York's conservative 21st District, saying he's already self-funded $2.6 million. That money may not take him very far, though, since party leaders will decide the nominees rather than primary voters, and the general election is not likely to be competitive.

Obituaries

Jodi Rell

Former Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell, who was the last Republican to lead this blue state, died Wednesday at the age of 78. Rell ascended from the lieutenant governor's office to the governorship in 2004 after the state's chief executive, Republican John Rowland, resigned months before ultimately pleading guilty on a federal corruption charge.

Despite her predecessor's circumstances, though, Rell proved to be incredibly popular, and in 2006 she won a full term 63-35 against Democrat John DeStefano in what was otherwise a difficult year for her party nationally. Rell opted to retire four years later rather than run again and was succeeded by Dan Malloy―who, perhaps fortunately, had narrowly lost the previous Democratic primary to DeStefano.

Mark Pazniokas has a detailed obituary in the Connecticut Mirror about Rell's unlikely rise and the major events of her tenure, including the State of the State she delivered just nine days after undergoing a mastectomy.

Correction: This piece incorrectly identified the Georgia governor who first appointed Chris Carr as attorney general.