Morning Digest: How Minnesota Republicans could elect a speaker even if the House winds up tied

And why a special election may not solve Democrats' woes

Lisa Demuth (left), the Minnesota GOP’s speaker-designate

Leading Off

MN State Senate, MN State House

Minnesota Democrats have temporarily lost their one-seat majority in the state Senate while Republicans have temporarily gained one in the state House, following the death of one Democrat and the resignation of another. However, the GOP could retain functional control of the House even if Democrats return the chamber to its previous tie between the parties.

Both vacancies will be filled soon, after Democratic Gov. Tim Walz called special elections for Jan. 28, with primaries on Jan. 14. And both seats, which are located in the Twin Cities area, should remain in Democratic hands: Senate District 60 voted for Kamala Harris by an 82-14 margin while House District 40B supported her by a 68-29 spread.

The special election for the Senate will fill the seat last held by former Majority Leader Kari Dziedzic, who died of ovarian cancer late last month. Democrats had held a 34-33 majority following their successful defense of a more competitive seat in a November special election, but for the moment, the chamber is deadlocked. Axios' Torey Van Oot says "it remains unclear how a temporary tie will play out" when lawmakers reconvene on Jan. 14.

The situation in the House is even less certain. Republicans gained three seats in November to force a 67-67 tie, prompting the two sides to hammer out a power-sharing agreement that would see membership on all committees split equally, with co-chairs from each party. The speakership, however, had not been resolved.

That precarious state of affairs was abruptly upended, however, when a judge ruled late last month that Democrat Curtis Johnson, who easily won an open-seat race last year, did not live in the district he sought, located in the St. Paul suburbs. Johnson prospectively resigned days later, ensuring Republicans would have a one-seat edge.

Even though that advantage likely won't last long, it may be enough to allow the GOP to elect a speaker on its own. While it takes an outright majority of 68 votes to pass legislation in the House, Twin Cities PBS reporter Mary Lahammer observed last month that speakers have been elected with just 67 votes on at least two occasions.

Conversely, it would take 68 votes to vacate the speakership, notes the Minnesota Reformer's Michelle Griffith. Democrats therefore would not be able to depose Republican Lisa Demuth—the GOP's speaker-designate—even if they win the upcoming special election unless they were to secure the support of at least one member of the other party.

Barring such a move, or a further change in House personnel, a Demuth speakership would last for the next two years. All seats in the House, as well as all those in the Senate, will go before voters again in 2026.

Senate

FL-Sen, FL-Gov, FL-01

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz said just ahead of Christmas that he could run for Senate or governor—comments that came one day before the House Ethics Committee released its bombshell report alleging that he'd paid for sex with a 17-year-old girl. This is the first time Gaetz has expressed interest in entering next year's special election to replace Marco Rubio, who is on track to join Donald Trump's cabinet as his secretary of state.

But Gaetz, who is now an anchor for the far-right One America News Network, has a history of suggesting he'll make major political moves without following through. To take just one example, Gaetz, who was first elected to the House in Florida in 2016, initially did not dismiss talk in 2019 that he could run for the Senate in Alabama. He did not run for the Senate in Alabama.

Gaetz, who resigned from the House in November, characteristically tweeted last month that he could still be sworn into the 119th Congress long enough to "[f]ile a privileged motion to expose every 'me too' settlement paid using public funds." Once again, though, Gaetz did no such thing, and his former colleagues applauded Friday when the clerk informed the chamber he wouldn't be sworn in.

MA-Sen

Former Gov. Charlie Baker's team dismissed chatter that the Massachusetts Republican could challenge Democratic Sen. Ed Markey next year. Baker has spent the last two years leading the National Collegiate Athletic Association, and one of his subordinates informed ESPN's Pete Thamel that he's "clearly not running for any political office."

NC-Sen

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, who left office earlier this week after serving two terms, is not ruling out a bid for the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Sen. Thom Tillis next year. In a recent interview with the New York Times' Reid Epstein, Cooper, 67, said "everything is on the table for me," including a possible presidential campaign, but added he would "take several months" to weigh a decision.

TX-Sen

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said he's "looking at" a possible challenge to Sen. John Cornyn in next year's Republican primary at a political event just before Christmas, adding that attendees should check in with him again in "a couple months" when he might "have a different answer."

WV-Sen, WV-Gov

Republican Gov. Jim Justice announced just after Christmas that he'd remain at his current job until Gov.-elect Patrick Morrisey's term begins on Jan. 13, which means that West Virginia will have just one senator for the first 10 days of the 119th Congress.

If Justice had resigned early to join the Senate, the Mountain State would have gone through two acting governors before Morrisey could have taken office. State Senate President Craig Blair, whose post doubles as lieutenant governor, is next in line for the top job. Blair, though, lost renomination last year, and fellow Republican Randy Smith will replace him as Senate leader on Wednesday.

Governors

AL-Gov

Former Democratic Sen. Doug Jones has not ruled out a bid for Alabama's open governorship next year, according to Wayne Rogers, who chairs the Jefferson County Democratic Party. Jones does not appear to have commented on his possible interest yet.

On the Republican side, former Secretary of State John Merrill, whose political career seemed to collapse after a sex scandal in 2021, tells AL.com that he has "not decided what I'm going to do yet for the 2026 cycle" but promised an announcement "sometime during the first quarter" of this year.

Attorney General Steve Marshall, meanwhile, says he will not run.

AZ-Gov

Donald Trump pre-endorsed businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson at a political gathering in Phoenix just before Christmas, saying she's "going to have my support" if she runs against Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs next year. Robson lost the 2022 GOP primary to Kari Lake, who said, at the same event a day earlier, "I don't want to run again."

Other Republicans might still run, however, especially since hardliners reacted poorly to Trump's decision to back Robson. State Treasurer Kimberly Yee said in a recent statement that she's "been asked to seriously consider running," though she didn't tip her hand about her thinking. Far-right Rep. Andy Biggs, meanwhile, "brushed aside" a query from the Arizona Capitol Times' Howard Fischer, saying, "I'm not going to be able to answer that question at this time."

CO-Gov

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser on Thursday became the first major candidate to enter next year's race to succeed termed-out Gov. Jared Polis, a fellow Democrat.

Weiser secured his post in 2018 with a 52-45 win over Republican George Brauchler, a district attorney in the Denver suburbs who attracted national attention for his prosecution of the 2012 Aurora theater shooter. That victory made Weiser the first Democrat to occupy the office since Ken Salazar's resignation following his 2004 election to the Senate, an outcome that allowed then-Gov. Bill Owens to appoint a Republican to serve the second half of his term.

Republicans fielded another prosecutor, John Kellner, in an attempt to retake the post in 2022. Weiser, though, outpaced Kellner 55-43 in what proved to be a strong year for Colorado Democrats.

Many other politicians are considering running to replace Polis, including Salazar. While the former senator, who is finishing up his stint as ambassador to Mexico, has said nothing publicly about his interest, one of his close associates tells the Colorado Sun that Salazar is "open to it."

MA-Gov

Former state cabinet official Mike Kennealy has been telling fellow Massachusetts Republicans that he's considering taking on Democratic Gov. Maura Healey, reports the Boston Herald's Chris Van Buskirk.

Venture capitalist Brian Shortsleeve, who served as interim general manager of the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, is also thinking about entering this race, Kelly Garrity writes in a separate piece for Politico. Neither Bay State Republican has said anything publicly about their interest.

Healey herself has yet to commit to running for a second term, and she told Van Buskirk she hadn't even "given it much thought." It would be a huge surprise, though, if Healey stepped aside after just one term as chief executive of this dark blue state.

MI-Gov

Former state Attorney General Mike Cox, who's been considering a bid for Michigan's open governorship next year, has created a fundraising committee, though he tells the Detroit News' Craig Mauger that he's not yet making an announcement about a campaign.

MN-Gov

Former state Sen. Scott Jensen is "making calls testing the waters" for a second gubernatorial bid next year, reports Morning Take. Jensen was the GOP nominee in 2022, when he lost to Democratic Gov. Tim Walz 52-45.

NJ-Gov

Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy has signed a bill moving New Jersey's primaries later this year from June 3 to June 10 to avoid conflicting with the Jewish holiday of Shavuot, when many observant Jews do not perform certain activities like writing and driving.

House

NY-21

Republican state Sen. Dan Stec says he'll run for the GOP nod to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik in the special election that would take place if she's confirmed as Donald Trump's ambassador to the United Nations. Several other Republicans are also seeking the nomination, which will be decided by local party leaders rather than primary voters.

Separately, Assemblyman Billy Jones, one of the few prominent Democrats in New York's conservative 21st District, announced on Friday that he would not run.

Ethics

The House Ethics Committee revealed on Thursday that it had voted in November to investigate Republican Rep. Andy Ogles over alleged campaign finance violations, following a referral from the independent Office of Congressional Ethics in August.

The OCE, which on Thursday publicly confirmed its request to the committee, said in a press release that Ogles may have accepted donations from outside sources that exceeded legal limits and instead falsely claimed he had self-funded his campaign. Last year, Ogles, who represents Tennessee's 5th District, acknowledged he was under FBI investigation over potential campaign finance issues.

The committee also released further details from a 2023 OCE report on Florida Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, whom it's been investigating for more than two years. The panel shared a two-page summary of the OCE report in September, but the full document runs to 43 pages and expands on a variety of campaign finance allegations.

Separately, the committee said just before the new year that it was closing campaign finance investigations into four different members: Texas Republicans Ronny Jackson and Wesley Hunt; Georgia Democrat Sanford Bishop; and West Virginia Republican Alex Mooney. Mooney, who waged an unsuccessful Senate bid, did not seek reelection last year, while the other three all won new terms.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

St. Louis County, MO Prosecuting Attorney

Melissa Price Smith was sworn in as St. Louis County's new top prosecutor on Friday after two state courts concluded that Republican Gov. Mike Parson rather than County Executive Sam Page had the power to choose a replacement for Wesley Bell, who was elected to the U.S. House in November.

Page, a Democrat, had sought to name former federal prosecutor Cort VanOstran to the job, but the state Supreme Court declined to intervene after a trial court and an intermediate appeals court both sided with Parson. Price Smith has worked in the county prosecutor's office since 2008 and is also a Democrat. She'll be up for election to a full four-year term next year.

Other Races

VA-LG, VA-Gov

Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity on Thursday became the first major Republican to enter this year's race for lieutenant governor of Virginia, a post that Republican Winsome Earle-Sears is giving up to run for governor. Herrity is the only Republican elected official left in the state's most populous county, a former GOP bastion that his late father once ran.

Herrity may not have the Republican side to himself for long, though. Conservative radio host John Reid tells the Washington Post that he plans to launch his own effort sometime after the presidential inauguration on Jan. 20. State GOP Chairman Rich Anderson also has not closed the door on running.

On the Democratic side, former federal prosecutor Victor Salgado kicked off his campaign last month. Four other major Democrats are already running for the state's number-two job.

And the race could grow more complicated. Former Rep. Denver Riggleman, who left the GOP in 2022 two years after losing to a more conservative intraparty opponent, says he's created an exploratory committee ahead of a possible bid as an independent.

While Riggleman did not rule out seeking the governorship, he told 29News' Maggie Glass that it "would be very difficult to run for governor" and said the second slot would offer "an easier path." Riggleman would have to file by June 17, the same day as the state's party primaries, to appear on the November ballot.

Obituaries

Buddy MacKay

Buddy MacKay, whose 23-day tenure as governor of Florida made him the last Democrat to hold the post, died Tuesday at the age of 91. MacKay, who was elevated from the lieutenant governor's office after Gov. Lawton Chiles died shortly before the end of his second term in December of 1998, was also the Sunshine State's last surviving Democratic chief executive.

While MacKay is often remembered as the second shortest-serving governor in state history—Wayne Mixson served four days in 1987—he had a lengthy political career that began with his election to the state House in 1968. He later moved on to the U.S. House and narrowly lost a bid for the Senate in 1988. The Associated Press has much more on MacKay, whose decisive loss to Jeb Bush in 1998 marked the beginning of a new era in Florida politics.

Correction: This piece incorrectly identified Buddy MacKay as the shortest-serving governor in Florida history. That distinction belongs to Wayne Mixson, who served for four days in 1987.