Morning Digest: Top reformist prosecutor draws challenger seeking to roll back changes

But the race comes amid falling crime in one of America's largest cities

Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner (credit: Larry Krasner campaign video)

Leading Off

Philadelphia, PA District Attorney

Former Judge Patrick Dugan announced Tuesday that he would challenge Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, who is one of the most prominent criminal justice reformers in the nation, in the city's May 20 Democratic primary.

Dugan launched his bid attacking Krasner's approach to the job, though as the Philadelphia Inquirer's Anna Orso noted, his campaign "comes amid declining rates of violent crime." The new candidate responded by arguing that the drop doesn't "have anything to do with [Krasner’s] policies."

Tuesday's kickoff makes Dugan, who lost a 2023 primary for a seat on Pennsylvania's Superior Court, the first major contender to enter the race to be the top prosecutor for this longtime Democratic bastion, and he's hoping to deter anyone else from joining in. He launched his campaign with the support of the Philadelphia Building and Construction Trades Council, which has long been one of the most influential endorsers in city politics.

And an even more prominent Krasner adversary could also get involved this spring. Elon Musk last November pledged to dump in money to beat progressive prosecutors nationwide, and he's been happy to feed speculation that Krasner could be one of his super PAC's top targets. The two clashed just before the 2024 election when Krasner unsuccessfully sued to stop Musk from giving away $1 million a day to voters who signed a petition.

The incumbent hasn't said whether he'll seek a third term, though he told NBC10 on Tuesday that he'll make an announcement "in about the next 30 days" that would be "consistent with the fact that I love this job."

Either way, the field will take shape soon: Campaigns can begin circulating their nomination papers on Feb. 18, and they have until March 11 to collect 1,000 valid signatures. It only takes a simple plurality to win the primary.

Krasner, who made a name for himself as an attorney by representing Black Lives Matter protestors, campaigned for this post in 2017 by pledging to oppose the practices that feed mass incarceration and also said he'd never seek the death penalty. Krasner benefited from spending by billionaire progressive donor George Soros and drew widespread attention following a primary victory that represented a major breakthrough in the emerging movement to elect progressive prosecutors.

But the new district attorney's fame immediately made him a target of conservatives, both in the Keystone State and across the nation, who argued that his reforms were putting the public at risk. One of those critics, former prosecutor Carlos Vega, challenged him for renomination in 2021 by urging voters to stop "an experiment that is costing the lives of our children."

Krasner, who argued he'd made necessary changes such as stopping "dumb, low bails for broke people on nonserious offenses," prevailed by a decisive 67-33 margin, but his foes didn't back off. Republicans in the state House, who had just lost their majority in the 2022 elections, used their final weeks of control to impeach him for allegedly mismanaging his office and pushing policies that led to unrest.

The district attorney denounced the proceedings as an "anti-democratic authoritarian effort to erase Philly’s votes" and successfully sued to keep the Pennsylvania Senate from holding a trial. The state Supreme Court ultimately ruled last September that the impeachment resolution became "null and void" with the expiration of the 2022 legislative session.

Krasner's critics are now hoping that Philadelphia voters will do what the legislature couldn't and eject him from office. The incumbent, unsurprisingly, sees his approach as successful. Krasner this month told reporters that his efforts to keep juvenile offenders out of prison were behind a major drop in recidivism, an accomplishment he says came "despite all the heat we took."

Senate

SC-Sen

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, unlike some of his colleagues, isn't keeping anyone in suspense about his plans to seek reelection next year. The four-term Republican announced earlier this month that he finished last year with $15.6 million in his campaign account and unveiled his campaign team on Monday.

Despite this show of force, however, Graham may still face serious opposition in the GOP primary from Rep. Ralph Norman, who told The Post and Courier last week that he remains interested in challenging the senator for renomination. The congressman informed Axios in November that he was also thinking about competing to succeed termed-out Gov. Henry McMaster, but he doesn't appear to have mentioned that contest in this more recent interview.

NOTUS previously reported that Rep. Nancy Mace is also thinking about competing in either statewide race, but Mace, who lost to Graham in 2014, has remained uncharacteristically quiet about her plans.

Governors

MI-Gov

State Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt on Tuesday became the first notable Republican to announce a campaign to succeed Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who cannot seek a third term next year. The candidate, whose family started its eponymous farm in southwestern Michigan in the 19th century, touted himself as a "small-town farm boy" in his kickoff video.

Nesbitt, who has never run statewide before, is launching his effort at a time when several better-established Republicans are still considering whether to run. One of those would-be contenders, former state Attorney General Mike Cox, formed an exploratory committee last month, but he's yet to formally enter the race.

NM-Gov

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, who'd previously been mentioned as a possible candidate for governor, now confirms that he's considering a bid for the Republican nomination. Fast-growing Rio Rancho, located in the Albuquerque metro area, is on the verge of taking over Las Cruces as New Mexico's second-largest city; Hull has served as mayor since 2014.

Meanwhile, one ally of another Republican, former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, recently talked him up as a potential contender to reporter Joe Monahan. Monahan says Sanchez "is mum about his intentions" but notes that he's grown wealthy since leaving office six years ago thanks to his business as a roofing contractor. However, while Sanchez has frequently considered bids for governor, he last followed through in 2002, when Democrat Bill Richardson smooshed him by a 55-39 margin.

NY-Gov, NY-17

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who has made no secret of the fact that he's looking at a bid for governor, said at a Tuesday press conference that he's "looking at it, that's no secret." However, he added that he "won't make a decision for some time."

TN-Gov

Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who began reserving TV time immediately after winning a second term in November, has been informing supporters she's "likely" to run for governor next year, according to unnamed sources who spoke with Axios. While Blackburn still has yet to say anything publicly, her decision to return to the airwaves so quickly sparked discussion that she was interested in running to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Lee next year.

WI-Gov

Navy SEAL veteran Bill Berrien and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann are both interested in joining the Republican primary for next year's governor's race, reports the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Berrien does not appear to have said anything publicly, but Schoemann, whose county is the most conservative of the three Republican "WOW" counties surrounding Milwaukee, says he's been encouraged to run by supporters.

Schoemann also added that he's focused on helping Republican Brad Schimel win the April 1 race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Rep. Tom Tiffany, another possible GOP contender, had previously said he would wait until after that election to decide and reiterated that timetable to the Journal Sentinel in its new report.

Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers still has yet to announce whether he'll seek a third term, though an unnamed source "close to the governor" said the incumbent is "leaning toward running" and "estimated a 60% chance he'd launch a campaign." An Evers spokesperson also cited the governor's continued fundraising as "the signal that he's still interested."

According to the paper, Evers will likely wait to announce a decision until after the completion of the state's biennial budget process. In 2023, Evers signed the previous budget in July.

House

NY-21

State Sen. Mark Walczyk told 7 News on Monday that he won't run to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik, a fellow Republican who is poised to become Donald Trump's ambassador to the United Nations. Several other Republicans, however, still want to replace Stefanik in New York's conservative 21st District.

The nature of this upcoming special election makes it hard to know precisely how many candidates there are, though. A small group of local leaders, rather than thousands of primary voters, will choose nominees for each party, so much of the jockeying is occurring behind the scenes rather than on the airwaves or at large events.

However, the Times Union's Lucy Hodgman identifies several Republicans who are trying to win over these insiders. Her list includes a trio of elected officials—Rensselaer County Executive Steve McLaughlin and Assemblymen Chris Tague and Robert Smullen—though none appear to have publicly announced bids. Businessman Joe Rutkowski, by contrast, told WIBX that he was running last week.

The field already consisted of businessman Anthony Constantino, former Newsmax host Joe Pinion, state Sen. Daniel Stec, and Putnam Town Supervisor Darrell Wilson. There's also time for more names to surface for a special election that hasn't yet been called, much less scheduled.

Complicating things further is the possibility that Stefanik and Trump will back a candidate, something that Hodgman's GOP sources think will happen. There's no word, though, who might be the favorite to receive such an endorsement.

Judges

WI Supreme Court

Republican Brad Schimel just kicked off the air wars in Wisconsin's pivotal April 1 battle for the state Supreme Court, launching what the Associated Press says is a $1.1 million TV buy. Schimel, a former state attorney general, narrates his inaugural spot, saying he's worked to combat elder abuse and helped clear 4,000 backlogged rape kits.

Judge Susan Crawford, who has the support of state Democrats, has yet to run any ads, though she's outraised Schimel so far and is likely to join him on TV soon. But the heaviest spending is certain to come from outside groups on both sides, who won't face the kind of content restrictions that candidates for judicial office are typically subject to.

Legislatures

MN State House

The showdown over who controls the Minnesota state House descended into murky territory when lawmakers reconvened on Tuesday, with Republicans insisting they'd elected one of their own as speaker even though the chamber's presiding officer ruled there was no quorum to conduct business.

Under state law, when the legislature gathers for the start of each session, the secretary of state is obligated to attend, "to call the members of the house of representatives to order and to preside until a speaker is elected." In that capacity, Democrat Steve Simon, who'd previously said a majority of 68 was necessary for a quorum, determined that only 67 members were present—all Republicans, due to a Democratic walkout—and adjourned.

Republicans, however, did not leave the floor. Instead, they sent their eldest member—who is supposed to preside if the secretary of state is absent—to the rostrum, even though Simon was still present in the chamber. That member, Rep. Paul Anderson, then declared there was in fact a quorum, at which point Republicans voted to name Rep. Lisa Demuth as speaker.

It's likely that the impasse will have to get resolved in the courts, though no lawsuits have yet been filed. A special election is also set to take place on Jan. 28 in a safely blue district to fill a vacant Democratic seat, which will return the chamber to a 67-67 tie. Republicans, however, say that their temporary numerical advantage entitles them to pick a speaker.

A different Democratic seat also remains disputed, though a state judge on Tuesday upheld Rep. Brad Tabke's 14-vote win over Republican Aaron Paul, who said a new election should be ordered because 20 ballots were mistakenly discarded. Demuth responded by sharply questioning the judge's ruling, saying Republicans—presumably, if their attempt to seize control of the chamber holds up—might choose not to seat Tabke regardless.

TX State House

Rep. Dustin Burrows pulled off an upset win to serve as speaker of the Texas House of Representatives on Tuesday with the support of most of the Democratic caucus and a minority of his fellow Republicans.

Burrows prevailed 85-55 in the second and final round of voting against Rep. David Cook, a hardliner who had the endorsement of the House Republican Caucus and far-right Attorney General Ken Paxton.

After Republicans won an 88-62 majority in November, Cook's allies raised the threat of primary challenges to pressure members to adhere to caucus rules and back him. Burrows, however, cobbled together a coalition of 36 Republicans and 49 Democrats, which was more than enough to offset the 52 Republicans and three Democrats who supported Cook. The other 10 seats are held by Democrats who did not back either Republican.

The vote took place the year after 15 House Republicans lost renomination, mostly to more strident challengers. Several incumbents were taken down by allies of Gov. Greg Abbott, who wanted to remove opponents of his stalled plan to use taxpayer money to pay for private schools, while Paxton successfully punished others who had voted to impeach him for corruption the previous year. (The Senate later acquitted the attorney general.)

Speaker Dade Phelan was the chief such target, though he narrowly won an expensive primary runoff over an opponent backed by both Paxton and Donald Trump. However, he concluded last month that he wouldn't be able to defeat Cook in a leadership vote. The task then fell to Burrows, who had Abbott's support in his own primary against a Paxton-endorsed foe.

Burrows, who supports school vouchers, is hardly a moderate—his backers even made the case that he was the "most conservative" option—but his vote to impeach Paxton and his alliance with Phelan made him suspect to hardliners. The Texas Tribune's James Barragan further characterizes the new speaker as willing to work with Democrats and "believes in protecting the independence of the House against outside forces."

Burrows' detractors also haven't forgiven him for a 2019 incident during which the then-caucus chair was recorded giving an ally the green light to wage primary campaigns against fellow Republicans. The outcry led Burrows to step down as chair, though it only stalled his ascent.

Next year, however, the new speaker and his allies could find themselves on the defensive at the ballot box. Paxton previewed such a battle last week when he told likeminded conservatives that, if their representatives didn't listen to their calls to back Cook, "we are going to come back and primary them next time and beat them."

Mayors & County Leaders

Detroit, MI Mayor

Former City Council President Saunteel Jenkins on Tuesday joined this year's race for mayor of Detroit, a move that follows her decision to begin raising money last summer for her bid to lead this loyally Democratic city.

Jenkins, who left elected office a decade ago to lead a nonprofit, made her plans official a month after City Council President Mary Sheffield announced her own bid to replace Mayor Mike Duggan, a former Democrat who is running for governor as an independent. Either Jenkins or Sheffield would be the first woman to lead the Motor City.

And the field may soon grow again. Todd Perkins, whom WXYZ describes as a "[p]rominent" attorney, announced the formation of an exploratory committee in December, saying a final decision would come this month.

Several other local politicians are also considering whether to enter what could be a busy race, though nonprofit head Portia Roberson told Crain's Detroit this week that she wouldn't run.

All candidates will compete in an officially nonpartisan primary, which usually takes place in August. The top two contenders will advance to a general election in November.