Morning Digest: Democrats land a major name in one of the few 'Harris-Republican' House districts

And it could become an open seat if Mike Lawler runs for governor

Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson, Democratic candidate for a swingy House seat in New York (credit: Beth Davidson campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

NY-17

Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson launched a bid for New York's competitive 17th Congressional District on Tuesday, making her the most prominent Democrat to join the race so far. The biggest question, though, is whether the seat's current occupant, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler will seek another term or instead wage a campaign for governor.

Davidson had served on a local school board for several years before seeking a seat in the county legislature in 2023, defeating her Republican opponent 56-44. She kicked off her latest effort with the support of more than 30 local officials and party leaders in Rockland County, which makes up 44% of the district, according to calculations by The Downballot. (Westchester accounts for 39%, with small portions in Putnam and Dutchess counties.)

Lawler won reelection by a 52-46 margin in 2024 over former Rep. Mondaire Jones, who had sought a comeback after unsuccessfully running for a distant district in New York City following a redistricting shakeup. Two years earlier, Lawler shocked the political world by narrowly defeating the man whose desire to seek reelection in the 17th, DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney, contributed to Jones' unhappy peregrination to the city.

A few months after his most recent victory, Lawler confirmed widespread chatter that he might challenge Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul next year, but he's refused to provide any sort of timetable, saying last month that he would not decide "for some time." Despite Hochul's weaknesses—she won in 2022 by a scary-for-a-New-York-Democrat 53-47 margin—a statewide run would likely prove more difficult for Lawler than seeking a third term in the House.

But running for Congress again would not be easy, either. Lawler is one of just three Republicans who sit in seats won by Kamala Harris, albeit just barely: According to calculations by The Downballot, relying on data graciously provided by data guru Ben Rosenblatt, Harris carried the 17th just 49.9 to 49.3. His district will be fiercely contested next year whether or not it's open.

Davidson, meanwhile, will likely face a primary. One other Democrat, nonprofit head Jessica Reinmann, filed paperwork in January and has since announced, while Liz Whitmer Gereghty, the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, has been mentioned as a possibility.

The New York Times' Nicholas Fandos, who first reported Davidson's entry, also name-drops two other potential candidates: Tarrytown trustee and nonprofit executive Effie Phillips-Staley, and Army veteran Neal Zuckerman, who serves on the board of the MTA.

Dave Weigel on surviving the news onslaught

Senate

MN-Sen, MN-Gov

Republicans are waiting to see whether Rep. Pete Stauber will run for Minnesota's newly open Senate seat, reports the Minnesota Star Tribune's Sydney Kashiwagi, though the congressman has yet to say much publicly.

Immediately after Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced her retirement last week, Stauber released a non-committal statement calling on the GOP to "nominate someone who will fight for all Minnesotans and our way of life." He hasn't offered any timetable for making a decision, though, or even confirmed he's seriously looking at the race.

Meanwhile, two more Republicans, state Sen. Zach Duckworth and attorney Chris Madel, each took their names out of contention for the Senate race. Duckworth, though, hinted in a social media post that he's interested in the governorship, while Madel didn't rule out seeking that office earlier this month.

So far, no Republicans have launched bids for governor, while the only two seeking Smith's seat are a pair of failed congressional candidates: former NBA player Royce White, who got pasted in last year's Senate race, and Navy SEAL veteran Adam Schwarze, whose 2022 campaign for the 3rd District went nowhere.

Governors

OK-Gov

Former state House Speaker Charles McCall announced on Tuesday that he'll run for Oklahoma's open governorship next year, making him the second notable Republican after Attorney General Gentner Drummond to join the race.

McCall kicked off his effort by touting how he'd worked "hand-in-hand" with termed-out Gov. Kevin Stitt, a fellow Republican who has repeatedly clashed with Drummond. The governor also is currently engaged in a high-profile feud with state Superintendent Ryan Walters, a former ally who is also looking at entering the race for governor.

Several more Republicans could also join the fray, and KOSU's Robby Korth tosses a new possibility into the mix, former Senate President Pro Tem Greg Treat. Treat hasn't directly addressed his interest, though last year, not long before he left the legislature due to term limits, he held out the possibility of seeking office again in the future.

House

CA-40

Democrat Christina Gagnier, a former member of the Chino Valley school board, announced on Tuesday that she'd run against Republican Rep. Young Kim in California's 40th District.

Gagnier, who narrowly lost her spot on the school board to a conservative hardliner in 2022, is the second notable Democrat to join the race after art gallery owner Esther Kim Varet kicked off her own bid for this swingy seat in eastern Orange County earlier this month.

A third Democrat may also be in soon. Joe Kerr, a retired firefighter who challenged Kim last year, recently filed paperwork ahead of a possible second bid. He also released a memo in December arguing that he fared relatively well in part because Kim's 55-45 victory was 3 points closer than her win two years earlier.

Gagnier also ran for Congress once before, albeit for the previous version of a neighboring district. That contest was a very different affair, however: Gagnier faced off against state Sen. Norma Torres in an all-Democratic general election for the solidly blue 35th District, which Torres easily won by a 63-37 margin.

The 40th, by contrast, backed Donald Trump by a 49-47 margin in 2024, according to calculations by Daily Kos Elections; four years earlier, it supported Joe Biden 50-48. The top outside spenders for both parties passed over the race last year, however, in part because Young swamped Kerr in fundraising by a better than 10-to-1 ratio.

TX-28

Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, who left the Democratic Party to become a Republican in December, is considering a bid against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in south Texas' 28th District, reports Politico's Ally Mutnick. While there's no direct word from Tijerina, Mutnick says he recently met with GOP leaders in D.C.

In Texas, the role of county judge—despite the name—is not judicial in nature but rather equivalent to the position of county executive elsewhere. When Tijerina first won office in 2014, his race did not even feature a Republican on the ballot (he defeated a Green Party candidate in a landslide). He then easily beat an actual Republican opponent four years later and was unopposed when he sought a third term in 2022.

Heavily Latino Webb County, though, has swung dramatically to the right in recent years. After supporting Hillary Clinton by more than 50 points in 2016, it backed Donald Trump 51-48 last year, making him the first Republican presidential candidate to carry it since 1912. That shift mirrors a broader transformation throughout the Rio Grande Valley, which has turned the 28th District from reliably Democratic turf into a constituency that voted for Trump in 2024.

Cuellar survived that transition last year despite getting indicted on federal corruption charges in May, but he only beat a badly underfunded Republican opponent by a 53-47 margin, and major outside GOP groups did not target his race. Following that election, Tijerina announced his party switch in an appearance on "Fox & Friends," claiming that "the radicalization of the national Democrats pushed me away a long time ago."

Mayors & County Leaders

Prince George's County, MD Executive

Prince George's County State's Attorney Aisha Braveboy earned the backing of Gov. Wes Moore on Monday ahead of the March 4 Democratic primary for county executive. Maryland Matters' William Ford notes that Braveboy was one of the first high-profile politicians to endorse Moore in his successful 2022 bid to lead Maryland.

Braveboy also recently received the support of the regional AFL-CIO in next month's special primary to replace Angela Alsobrooks, who resigned last year after she won her U.S. Senate seat. Another contender, former Executive Rushern Baker, unveiled endorsements from several public safety unions in his campaign to regain the job he held from 2010 to 2018.

The field also includes County Councilmember Calvin Hawkins, who is Alsobrooks' endorsed candidate, and state Sen. Alonzo Washington, as well as several others.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Philadelphia, PA District Attorney

Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner confirmed he'd seek a third term Tuesday, a long-anticipated announcement that comes three months ahead of what could be a difficult Democratic primary.

Krasner faces Patrick Dugan, a former judge who argues the incumbent's criminal justice reforms have undermined public safety. The district attorney has defended his record and positioned himself as an ardent opponent of the Trump administration's anti-immigration agenda.

Dugan will likely be Krasner's only intraparty foe on May 20 in this dark blue city. Tuesday was also the start of the candidate petitioning period, but no other candidates have launched efforts to collect the 1,000 signatures by March 11 that they would need to make the ballot.