Morning Digest: Democrats target the Trump-esque leader of a bellwether Pennsylvania county

Erie County keeps swinging back and forth—and Democrats have reason to think it'll be "forth" this fall

Erie County Executive Brenton Davis (left) campaigning with Mehmet Oz during the 2022 Senate race (credit: Brenton Davis campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

Erie County, PA Executive

A pair of Pennsylvania Democrats recently launched campaigns to unseat Erie County Executive Brenton Davis, a Republican who leads one of the most competitive counties in this perennial swing state.

Davis won a tight contest to flip the post he now holds in 2021, but Democrats hope that a backlash against Donald Trump's GOP—plus Davis' own penchant for political brawling—will doom him this fall.

Erie County, a 270,000-person community located in the northwestern corner of the state, was solidly Democratic territory as recently as a decade ago. It voted for the Democratic nominee in all seven presidential races from 1988 to 2012, and Barack Obama's 57-41 performance seemed to foreshadow more success for the future.

Trump, though, snapped that winning streak in 2016 with a narrow victory. Joe Biden brought Erie County back in the blue column in 2021 with a 50-49 showing—a result that matched his statewide performance—and solidified the region's new bellwether status.

The next year, Davis sought to replace Executive Kathy Dahlkemper, a former Democratic congresswoman who decided not to seek a third term as the county's leader. His contest against Democrat Tyler Titus attracted outsized attention in large part because Titus would have been the first transgender county executive in American history. Davis, though, prevailed 52-48 on a night when Biden's weak approval ratings hampered Democrats across the state.

The county was again a battleground in 2024, and Trump ended up taking it by the same 50-49 margin Biden had eked out four years earlier. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, meanwhile, prevailed by a 50-48 spread, though it wasn't enough to save his seat from Republican Dave McCormick.

Two Democrats are now looking to lead this purple turf. Perry Wood, who runs the local Gaming Revenue Authority, launched his campaign in late January, while businesswoman Christina Vogel entered the race last week. Dahlkemper, who appointed Vogel to the board of the Erie County Community College, attended her launch, though she doesn't appear to have issued an endorsement. The Democratic primary will take place on May 20.

Vogel kicked off her effort by promising to move on from the kind of "drama" that's defined Davis' term. The executive has feuded with the Democratic majority on the County Council and attempted to dismantle several independent agencies, including the one led by Wood.

Davis has also deployed his campaign's Facebook page to fire off what the Erie Times-News' A.J. Rao characterizes as "multiple screeds against members of Erie County Council, boards and authorities and even the veracity of news stories." Rao adds that Davis' team recently used the county's official government page to accuse Democratic councilors of "once again trying to waste your tax dollars on a frivolous lawsuit."

Davis, unsurprisingly, is presenting his tenure as a battle against the establishment. He announced his reelection effort in January by declaring, "When you're trying to do the right thing in opposition to the status quo—those who oppose change for their own purposes—you're going to get into a few fights."

How Dems are fighting to save the Wisconsin Supreme Court

Senate

KY-Sen

Despite recent reports that he wouldn't run for the Senate, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie teased the political world on Thursday by posting a poll on social media asking whether he should seek reelection to the House or set his sights on the upper chamber next year ("Governor in 2027" was also an option). Massie, though, is a committed oddball, as one veteran Kentucky columnist tells Jewish Insider (albeit more politely).

"You can't count Massie out but you can't count him in," said Al Cross, a former journalism professor. "He's just an unpredictable guy. He doesn't operate by the same rules that most politicians do."

Meanwhile, former state Sen. Damon Thayer, who was a member of GOP leadership before leaving the legislature earlier this year, says he "does not see himself pursuing a run" to succeed Mitch McConnell, in the words of Kentucky Lantern reporter McKenna Horsley. Thayer showed greater interest earlier this month in campaigning to replace Rep. Andy Barr, who is likely to run for McConnell's seat.

MN-Sen

Former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen has stepped down from her job at the University of Minnesota to consider a bid for Senate, reports Morning Take's Blois Olson.

Lopez Franzen was reportedly a potential option to replace Al Franken after he resigned in 2017, but the appointment went to fellow Democrat Tina Smith, who recently announced her retirement.

Lopez Franzen, who is Puerto Rican, went on to become the first person of color to serve as the Democrats' leader in the state Senate in 2021, but she didn't get to hold that role for long. After the most recent round of redistricting placed her in the same district as another incumbent, she opted not to seek reelection in 2022.

Governors

FL-Gov

Donald Trump has issued a pre-endorsement of Rep. Byron Donalds ahead of his likely bid for governor, a move that has Florida politicos wondering if the GOP primary is over before it can even begin.

Donalds, a MAGA favorite who's reportedly been telling supporters that he plans to run, responded by saying, "Announcement coming soon!" And even Matt Gaetz, who has toyed with a bid of his own, acknowledged to Politico, "That's a big boost for Byron."

One person who hopes it's not dispositive, though, is term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, who two years ago thought he was riding so high that he could publicly crap on Donalds when the congressman dared to question the state's absurd new school curriculum on slavery. (You remember the whole "slaves developed skills which, in some instances, could be applied for their personal benefit" thing, yeah?)

DeSantis has been fruitlessly searching for a successor who doesn't hate him but so far has come up empty, and it's very possible Trump's intervention will make a difficult task impossible.

Trump endorsements don't always carry the day, of course: In Arizona's race for governor, for instance, Freedom Caucus Rep. Andy Biggs has forged ahead with a campaign despite Trump's support for businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, and GOP primary voters may find his combative far-right politics more appealing.

But Donalds has endeared himself not only to Trump but also to his most ardent supporters, many of whom keenly value being validated by a Black ultra-conservative. So even if DeSantis does come up with an alternative, Donalds is all but certain to remain the favorite.

NM-Gov

Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima, who recently said he was considering a bid for governor, now tells the Albuquerque Journal that he's created an exploratory committee and will make a decision by the end of May. Miyagishima would be the second notable Democrat to enter the race after former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, who has already consolidated support from a large swath of party leaders.

OH-Gov

Even Attorney General Dave Yost is acknowledging that businessman Vivek Ramaswamy would start out with a wide lead in next year's GOP primary for Ohio's open governorship, sharing a new survey from National Public Affairs that finds Ramaswamy up by a 46-18 margin.

Naturally, the pollster's memo says that the race would tighten considerably after voters hear more about both candidates, though the actual messages shared with respondents aren't provided. NPA further argues that Yost would pull ahead if Donald Trump were to endorse him—but that's a gigantic "if."

However, Ramaswamy, who will reportedly launch his campaign today, has long been close with Trump and would seem to have the inside track for an endorsement. But even Ohio politicos don't seem certain he'll land it, especially given his volatile relationship with Elon Musk.

The two had a falling out last month, but Musk hinted the rupture wasn't permanent when the two appeared together in a recent livestream. Musk concluded by wishing his best to "perhaps one day Senator Ramaswamy—or Governor Ramaswamy."

House

FL-07, FL-Sen

Republican Rep. Cory Mills, who's also a potential candidate for the Senate, is being investigated by police in Washington, D.C., for allegedly assaulting a 27-year-old woman at his home, according to multiple media reports. Mills, who is married, said in response that he "denies any wrongdoing."

The department's handling of the matter is now also under scrutiny by its Internal Affairs Bureau. News 4 reports that the police report of the incident was twice changed to remove details about the allegations.

The initial report said the alleged victim told officers that Mills had "grabbed her, shoved her, and pushed her out of the door" and showed them "bruises on her arm which appeared fresh." It also said that an officer informed Mills he'd be placed under arrest but that the woman recanted.

Later versions of the report, however, omitted all these details, and Mills was not arrested.

NY-17

"Keep an eye on Cait Conley," advises Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin, who says she could join the Democratic primary for New York's competitive 17th Congressional District.

Conley is an Army special forces veteran who until last month worked as a cybersecurity advisor in the Biden administration. If she were to run, she'd enter a race that already includes Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson and nonprofit head Jessica Reinmann, who in recent weeks both announced bids to take on Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.

Judges

NC Supreme Court

The North Carolina Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a request by the state Board of Elections to bypass the state's Court of Appeals and directly resolve Republican Jefferson Griffin's attempt to retroactively invalidate 65,000 votes in last year's race for the top court.

The decision is a blow to Democratic Justice Allison Riggs, who was confirmed the winner by 734 votes in three separate counts. Both the Board and a trial court in Wake County have ruled against Griffin's claims, but the Republican-dominated Court of Appeals could reverse those rulings.

Should that happen, Riggs would need the Supreme Court to overturn the Court of Appeals, which would require a 4-2 vote in her favor (Riggs has recused herself). If instead the Wake County ruling had gone straight to the high court, a 3-3 deadlock would have been sufficient to uphold it.

At least three Republican justices have signaled their openness to Griffin's arguments, even though the challenged voters complied with all rules the state had put in place at the time of the election. Therefore, even if the court's two other Republicans, as well as Democrat Anita Earls, side with Riggs, that wouldn't be enough to overturn an adverse ruling by the Court of Appeals.

Mayors & County Leaders

Detroit, MI Mayor

Prominent pastor Solomon Kinloch announced Wednesday that he'd run for mayor of Detroit, while another Democrat unexpectedly revealed that he wouldn't enter this year's open seat race. State Rep. Joe Tate, who served as speaker when his party ran the chamber, said Friday that he'd decided not to run—a decision that came three days ahead of his scheduled campaign launch.

Kinloch, whose own event went as planned, kicked off his bid with the endorsement of longtime Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy. Kinloch, who is a first-time candidate, has served as the pastor of Triumph Church since 1998, and it massively expanded under his leadership from fewer than 50 members to more than 40,000 across eight sites in the state.

Kinloch joins what's already a busy Aug. 5 nonpartisan primary, and a new poll for the Michigan Democratic Black Caucus finds that he doesn't begin with much support.

The survey, conducted by Douglas Fulmer & Associates and first shared by BridgeDetroit's Malachi Barrett, finds City Council President Mary Sheffield firmly in first with 34%. Former police chief James Craig leads former City Council President Saunteel Jenkins 20-12 for the second spot in the November general election, though Craig has not yet said if he'll run. (Craig is the rare notable Republican in this overwhelmingly Democratic city.)

Kinloch is a distant fourth with 5% while Tate and three others trail further behind. (The poll was completed and released before Tate announced he wouldn't run.) Another 21% of respondents remain undecided with over five months to go before the first round of voting.

This is the first poll we've seen of the contest to succeed Mayor Mike Duggan, a former Democrat who's running for governor as an independent next year. There's no word if the poll's sponsor has a rooting interest in the mayoral contest.

New York, NY Mayor

Federal Judge Dale Ho on Friday appointed a prominent outside attorney to help him assess whether to dismiss corruption charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

"Normally, courts are aided in their decision-making through our system of adversarial testing," wrote Ho. Here, however, both prosecutors and the defense agree the case should be dismissed. As a result, parties that should be "nominal adversaries" are instead "aligned in their positions," meaning that there has been "no adversarial testing of the Government's position" that the court should dismiss the indictment.

To remedy that gap, Ho tapped former Solicitor General Paul Clement, who served in George W. Bush's administration and has litigated on behalf of many conservative causes, including an unsuccessful effort to overturn the Affordable Care Act.

The judge also indefinitely postponed Adams' trial, which was set to begin on April 21.