Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: Why this Detroit congressman's intra-party foes are eager to boot him

Shri Thanedar has survived thanks to fractured opposition. That may change.

Leading Off

MI-13

As Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar's many intraparty critics once again seek to oust him in next year's primary, Politico offers an early look at some of the Detroit politicians who could challenge the congressman in Michigan's safely blue 13th District.

The person who appears to be the most interested in taking on this task is state Rep. Donavan McKinney, a labor ally whom Politico reports is "seriously considering" running. One of the groups McKinney has spoken to, the site says, is the Congressional Black Caucus, which has clashed with the incumbent.

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McKinney has not publicly confirmed that he's thinking about trying to avenge his 2020 loss to Thanedar for a lower office. The contours of that eight-way primary for a seat in the state House would foreshadow what was to come for Thanedar's political career.

In that election, the future congressman, who is Indian American, was seeking an open seat in Detroit that was over 90% Black. Thanedar had unsuccessfully run for governor two years earlier and had only recently relocated from the Ann Arbor area, prompting his detractors to portray him as a wealthy interloper. But Thanedar won the support of some prominent Detroit figures and didn't hesitate to deploy his ample personal resources.

Another issue also loomed over the race. Every other candidate was Black, including McKinney, and observers predicted Thanedar could prevail with a plurality. His opponents tried to keep that from happening: One of them blasted him for "offering chicken dinners, hot dogs and pizza," arguing Thanedar was "trying to buy his way into the election through poor, disadvantaged individuals." The anticipated split happened, though, as Thanedar beat McKinney 35-20.

McKinney won a different seat in the state House two years later, but he isn't the only former Thanedar opponent who could pursue a rematch. Former state Sen. Adam Hollier also told Politico he's been encouraged to run for Congress again, saying he wasn't rejecting the idea.

Thanedar and Hollier squared off in the busy 2022 primary for the 13th District, a Detroit-based seat that's also home to a large Black electorate. And as in Thanedar's race for the state House, Hollier was one of a number of Black candidates in the mix.

Prominent local African Americans like retiring Rep. Brenda Lawrence once again worried that the packed field would make it easier for Thanedar to prevail, an outcome that would leave the city without a Black representative in Congress for the first time since the early 1950s. (Detroit's other House member, Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American.)

And once again, that's exactly what came to pass. Thanedar deployed over $9 million of his own money and defeated Hollier 28-24, but a year later, Hollier announced he'd seek a rematch.

The challenger seemed to have reason to hope that the new congressman, despite now having the advantages of incumbency, was beatable. Thanedar was engaged in a high-profile feud with Tlaib, who said of her colleague, "While he is busy posting memes, his residents are calling my office asking for my assistance because he is absent from doing his job."

Hollier's second campaign collapsed, though, after election officials determined that he'd failed to turn in enough valid signatures to make the ballot—a problem that has sunk many other Michigan candidates.

Thanedar was not home free, however, as Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters managed to secure a spot in the primary. She argued that Detroit once again needed a Black member of Congress and charged that Thanedar had done a poor job serving his constituents. The congressman, who yet again enjoyed a staggering financial advantage, prevailed in the end, but his 55-34 margin of victory was far from impressive.

That soft showing helps explain why both McKinney and Hollier are thinking about taking on a candidate who has outspent them so heavily in the past, and they're not the only ones eyeing this race.

State Rep. Joe Tate, who served as speaker during the two years that Democrats were in charge of the chamber following the 2022 elections, didn't rule out the idea when Politico contacted him. Tate had planned to run for mayor of Detroit this year only to unexpectedly back out just days before his scheduled campaign launch.

Politico also says that Wolverine State Democrats have talked to Lawrence about running again but says the 70-year-old former congresswoman is "unlikely" to go for it. Thanedar's critics, though, are working to make sure that whoever does eventually step up won't have to fight through the sort of crowded primary that has doomed his past opponents.

"Black leaders in Detroit are going to coalesce around someone, and then voters will decide who can best represent their values," an unnamed strategist close to the Congressional Black Caucus said. "What you can know for sure is the CBC is going to ensure the people of Detroit are well represented in Washington."

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Governors

CO-Gov

Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is contemplating waging a surprise campaign for governor of Colorado, the Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul reports. Bennet, who won a new six-year term in 2022, has not said anything publicly about such an undertaking, but two unnamed top aides inform Paul he's "very, very seriously" thinking about it.

While several Democrats have been eyeing the race to succeed termed-out Gov. Jared Polis—Attorney General Phil Weiser is the only declared contender—Bennet wasn't seriously talked about as a possible candidate until last week. Policy advocate Deep Singh Badhesha, however, mentioned the senator as a potential contender days before Paul, writing that "many many folks have told me that Bennet is so over the dysfunction of D.C."

If Bennet ran for and won the governorship, he'd be able to appoint someone to serve out his remaining two years in the Senate. Bennet's seat is set to be on the ballot again in 2028 no matter what, though.

GA-Gov, GA-01

Republican Rep. Buddy Carter, who had previously expressed interest in a potential Senate bid, has also "talked about" the possibility of running for governor, reports the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. But unlike Carter's musing about the Senate race, which he's done openly, these conversations appear to have been private, since there are no quotes from the congressman.

Just as Republicans like Carter have been waiting to see whether Gov. Brian Kemp challenges Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, those in the state's conservative 1st Congressional District are eager for Carter to make up his mind. The AJC says "several potential successors have said they'd consider a run" for this seat along the Georgia coast, but would only jump in if Carter seeks a promotion to statewide office.

One, however, did not wait: Kandiss Taylor, a local Republican Party official, far-right media personality, and antisemite, just launched a campaign for Carter's seat. Taylor's previous bids for office, however, have gone poorly. She took less than 1% of the vote in a 2020 special election for the Senate and just 3% in the 2020 GOP primary for governor against Kemp.

During that most recent race, she promised to dismantle a tourist attraction in the northeastern corner of the state called the Georgia Guidestones, calling it "Satanic." Not long after her loss, unknown vandals demolished part of the monument, leading to the removal of the remainder. Taylor celebrated the destruction as "another defeat of the devil."

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Andrew Cuomo finally launched his long-awaited campaign to become mayor of New York City on Saturday, a comeback bid that comes three-and-a-half years after he resigned the governorship in disgrace.

Cuomo, first elected in 2010, dominated state politics for more than a decade with unusual power and vindictiveness and was a perennial obstacle to achieving progressive goals. But in 2021, he left office unwillingly after fellow Democrats threatened to impeach him following accusations of sexual impropriety brought by multiple women who'd worked for him.

Despite the circumstances of his departure, polls have shown Cuomo leading in the Democratic primary, which will be conducted on June 24 using ranked-choice voting. The ex-governor, however, is almost certainly benefiting from his uncommonly high name recognition, especially when compared with his rivals, none of whom have begun spending in earnest to communicate with voters yet.

Cuomo's many enemies have also been modest so far in their outlays, with one group spending a "low-to-mid six-figure" sum on ads targeting Black voters. Now that he's officially in the race, though, it's likely that anti-Cuomo activity will ramp up.

Even with Cuomo's entry, though, the field remains in flux. Some prominent Democrats hoping to thwart him—and unsure whether any existing candidates have the juice—have sought to recruit City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, who's been receptive to their entreaties but has not made a final decision.

There's also the matter of another, unrelated Adams: the incumbent mayor, Eric, who has long insisted he's seeking reelection despite his still-not-dismissed indictment on federal corruption charges and his abominable standing in the polls. However, Politico recently reported that Adams "doesn't appear to have much of a campaign apparatus" even though the period for candidates to gather signatures to appear on the ballot has already begun.

Campaigns have until April 3 to complete this task, which requires them to submit at least 3,750 signatures from registered voters. In practice, though, they must collect many more, because many won't be valid. In addition, voters can only sign one candidate's petitions. If they sign more than one, only the first is counted. For a robust campaign, this undertaking is eminently achievable; for Adams, it may well be out of reach.