Morning Digest: With Buttigieg out, other Democrats are set to dive into Michigan's Senate race

And Republicans could go with a much more MAGAfied pick

Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (credit: Pete Buttigieg Facebook page)

Leading Off

MI-Sen

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced on Thursday that he would not run for Michigan's open Senate seat, unfreezing the Democratic primary field and opening the door for others to join the race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters.

One new potential candidate signaled her openness to the idea immediately after the Buttigieg news broke.

In a statement shared with the Detroit News, freshman Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet did not directly address the Senate contest but said she would "consider how and where I can best serve Michigan." According to both the paper and CNN, McDonald Rivet is already exploring a bid and has received encouragement from former Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

McDonald Rivet won a difficult race last year to hold Michigan's 8th District following fellow Democrat Dan Kildee's retirement. Even though Donald Trump narrowly won the district, McDonald Rivet held off Republican Paul Junge by a 51-45 margin.

A Senate campaign would put McDonald Rivet on a very accelerated timetable for promotion. Just a year after flipping a seat in the state Senate to win a four-year term, she began exploring a bid to replace Kildee shortly after he announced he wouldn't seek reelection.

Her victory was a triumph for Michigan Democrats, but it also left her swingy state Senate vacant and reduced the party's already slim edge in the chamber to just one seat. (Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer still has yet to schedule a special election.) Were McDonald Rivet to run for the U.S. Senate, Democrats would once again have to defend the competitive 8th District as an open seat.

Other Democrats are almost certain to wade in as well. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who said she would consider running immediately after Peters said he'd retire, reiterated her interest following Buttigieg's announcement.

"Busy morning, huh?" she wrote on social media. "Thank you to everyone encouraging me to run for Senate. I'll have more to share soon." The Associated Press, which reported last month that McMorrow would enter the race, said on Thursday that she would launch a campaign in April.

CNN, meanwhile, reports that Rep. Haley Stevens "is also preparing a possible bid if the party doesn't rally behind another candidate." Last month, Stevens said she would "have an announcement in about six weeks."

Morning Digest: Gary Peters' surprise retirement sets off massive wave of interest to succeed him

On the Republican side, Axios reports that former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost last year's race for Stabenow's seat, is "likely" to kick off a second campaign "within a few weeks." The AP reported in late January that Rogers was "gearing up" for another run.

But while the ex-congressman (and longtime Florida resident) faced minimal opposition in the GOP primary last time, next year could be different. A new survey from GOP pollster Fabrizio Lee shows conservative commentator Tudor Dixon with a 40-36 edge on Rogers.

It's not clear who this poll was conducted for, but Politico notes that Fabrizio also works for Donald Trump. Dixon is much more closely aligned with the MAGA brigades, which is why Democrats would likely prefer to face her over Rogers. While Rogers lost by just three-tenths of a percentage point, Dixon was thumped by Whitmer 55-44 in the 2022 race for governor.

Why Senate Dems should fear primary voters

Governors

AL-Gov

Sen. Tommy Tuberville's increasing interest in running for Alabama's open governorship is prompting differing reactions among Republicans who are also eyeing the same race.

Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate, who blew a self-imposed deadline for making a decision in February, now sounds like he won't run, according to AL.com's Heather Gann, though it may depend on Tuberville's ultimate decision.

"The only person that could beat him I think would be Nick Saban," said Pate, referring to Tuberville's one-time rival college football coach. (Saban coached the University of Alabama while Tuberville coached Auburn.) "And I don't think Saban wants to run for it."

As an alternative, Pate says he might run for lieutenant governor, which will also be open. But the termed-out occupant of that post, Will Ainsworth, explicitly says he won't let Tuberville deter him from the governor's race or divert him to what would be an open-seat contest for the Senate.

"I've said this before and I'll say it again—that's the only office I'd consider running for," Ainsworth told AL.com's Mike Cason, referring to the governorship. He also reiterated that he'd decide in May, after the current session of the legislature ends.

NJ-Gov

Rep. Frank Pallone has endorsed his House colleague, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, as she seeks the Democratic nomination in New Jersey's open governor's race this year. Pallone, who is the most senior Democrat in the state's congressional delegation, is also the first to back Sherrill.

House

AZ-01

EMILYs List has endorsed Marlene Galan-Woods in her second bid against Republican Rep. David Schweikert for Arizona's swingy 1st District. Galan-Woods recently became the first major Democrat to announce a run, but several others are in the mix.

Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: Democrats land first major candidate in Arizona's swingiest district

AZ-07

Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva died Thursday at the age of 77 from what his office said were "complications of his cancer treatments." The 22-year incumbent, who was the most senior member of Arizona's congressional delegation, was serving what he'd announced last year would be his final term before retiring.

A special election will be held in the 7th Congressional District, a majority Latino seat that includes the western Tucson area and other parts of southwestern Arizona. Kamala Harris carried this constituency 60-38, according to calculations by The Downballot, so the winner of the Democratic primary will be favored to succeed Grijalva.

This seat will remain vacant until mid-September at the earliest: State law requires that the primary take place at least 120 days after the seat becomes vacant, with a general election to follow at least 70 days after that.

Grijalva, the son of a migrant worker from Mexico, was an activist in the Raza Unida Party before winning a seat on the Tucson school board in 1974. He later won a promotion to the Pima County Board of Supervisors and served for many years until he won a seat in Congress in 2002. Griljava ran to the left of his main opponent in the eight-way Democratic primary, state Sen. Elaine Richardson, and defeated her 41-21 ahead of an easy general election win.

The new congressman became one of the most prominent Latinos in the House, and in 2010 he made national headlines by calling for a boycott of his state after the Republican-run legislature passed an anti-immigration law known as Senate Bill 1070. Months later, Grijalva fended off a Republican foe only 50-44 in what proved to be the only single-digit win of his long congressional career. Grijalva never again had trouble holding his seat and continued to be a high-profile figure in the progressive movement.

CA-13

Former Republican Rep. John Duarte "doesn't appear likely to make a comeback bid," reports Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin, after losing reelection to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes last year—the closest House race in the nation. Immediately after his race was called a month after Election Day—it was the last unresolved contest in the country—Duarte suggested he might run again, but he doesn't appear to have commented since.

Morning Digest: House Democrats end 2024 with a net gain after final race flips their way

IA-03

House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst, who said this week that she's considering a bid against Republican Sen. Zach Nunn in Iowa's 3rd District, plans to wait until the end of the state's legislative session to decide, reports the Des Moines Register. That's a common timetable for state lawmakers looking at other offices; in Iowa's case, the current session is set to conclude on April 22. (And in case you were wondering, it's pronounced KON-first.)

Mayors & County Leaders

Albuquerque, NM Mayor

Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller announced Thursday that he would seek a third term this fall as leader of New Mexico's largest city. Keller, who like most local politicians is a Democrat, is seeking to become the first mayor to serve three consecutive terms since the city began directly electing its leader in the mid-1970s.

A few Republicans are hoping that there's enough unhappiness with the status quo to give them an opening against Keller in the officially nonpartisan race to run this Democratic bastion. The most prominent challenger is former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, who badly lost a 2008 House race to future Sen. Martin Heinrich. White went on to a turbulent tenure as chief public safety officer under Republican Mayor Richard Berry, who is Keller's immediate predecessor.

All the candidates will face off on one ballot on Nov. 4, and it takes a majority of the vote to avoid a December runoff. Candidates who want to participate in the city's public finance program must file by July 7, while the deadline for anyone else to get their name on the ballot is Aug. 26.

Seattle, WA Mayor

Progressive organizer Katie Wilson announced on Thursday that she would challenge Democratic incumbent Bruce Harrell, who is seeking to become the first Seattle mayor to win reelection in two decades.

Wilson, who successfully worked to pass the city's tax on large businesses, acknowledged to Cascade PBS that she's "definitely the underdog," but she argued there's enough discontent with the mayor to give her an opening.

A recent survey suggests that Harrell may indeed be vulnerable. The Democratic firm Change Research, working on behalf of the Northwest Progressive Institute, showed him with an underwater 38-48 approval rating.

Harrell, though, has been working to deter any strong opponents from taking him on. The mayor has the endorsement of Rep. Pramila Jayapal, a nationally prominent progressive who has clashed with him in the past. And while labor groups largely opposed Harrell in 2021, the King County Labor Council drew attention last year when it bestowed him its "Best Elected Official" Labor Oscar—an award that comes with its own statuette.

Anyone looking to take on Harrell has until May 9 to file. All the candidates will face off in a nonpartisan primary on Aug. 5, with the top two choices competing in the Nov. 4 general election.