Morning Digest, sponsored by Liftoff Campaigns: Kansas GOP pushes Supreme Court overhaul to target abortion rights

Partisan elections for justices could be coming, but voters will get to weigh in first

Abortion rights protesters at the 2017 Women’s March in Topeka, KS (credit: mmrogne / CC BY 2.0)

Leading Off

KS Ballot, KS Supreme Court

Republicans in Kansas just voted to place an amendment on the ballot in August of next year that would radically alter how justices are selected for the Supreme Court, paving the way for a potential rollback of abortion rights.

On Wednesday, the GOP-dominated state House passed the measure in question with the necessary two-thirds supermajority, following a similar move by the Senate earlier this month.

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The proposal would upend Kansas' method for appointing justices, which has been in place since voters approved it by a 60-40 margin in 1958 following a scandal. Under this system, the governor chooses one of three names provided by a nominating commission whenever there's a vacancy. After a year in office, new justices face a retention election in which voters are asked simply whether they should be granted a full term, a process that repeats every six years.

The Republican approach, by contrast, would require that all justices be directly elected statewide, starting in 2028. The legislature would have wide latitude over how those elections are conducted and could turn them into explicitly partisan affairs, meaning that candidates would appear on the ballot with party labels next to their names. Such a switch would favor Republicans, who hold every statewide elective office except the governorship.

That in turn could lead to a major shift in the composition of the Supreme Court, where five of seven current members were appointed by Democratic governors. Republicans have long been furious at the court's independence and especially its defense of the right to an abortion, expressed in a landmark 2019 case known as Hodes & Nauser v. Kansas.

In that ruling, the justices concluded that the Kansas constitution "includes the right to control one's own body" and therefore "allows a woman to make her own decisions regarding her body, health, family formation, and family life—decisions that can include whether to continue a pregnancy."

Unable to override the court's decision legislatively, Republicans sought to undermine it by putting a measure before voters in the summer of 2022 that would have amended the constitution to say that it "does not create or secure a right to abortion."

The move was a political disaster. Six weeks before the vote, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, prompting an outpouring of anger and activism in support of abortion rights. The election, likely placed on the August ballot in the hopes that lower participation would benefit the GOP, instead saw high turnout that sent the amendment to a landslide 59-41 defeat.

A Republican-dominated court could, however, strip away rights that voters instead chose to protect simply by overturning the Hodes case. But Kansans will have an opportunity to weigh in first: The GOP's new amendment will appear on the ballot next year—once again in August. Voters will therefore have the final say on how Supreme Court justices should be chosen and, ultimately, the fate of abortion rights.

The Downballot Podcast

The fallout from Schumer's capitulation

Chuck Schumer and the handful of Senate Democrats who stood with him have faced unprecedented backlash for caving to Republicans on their budget bill last Friday, so we're pulling out our Geiger counters and assessing the fallout on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Schumer's biggest failure was his hamfisted execution of an already questionable strategy. But it's not just the lingering anger Democrats need to worry about: Similar fights are coming up in Congress later this year, and they need to be much better prepared next time.

The Davids also dive into a new plan from Kansas Republicans to bend the state Supreme Court to their will—and warn that, if next year's vote on the GOP's amendment turns into another referendum on abortion, it's likely doomed. They also highlight why a burgeoning effort in New Hampshire to finally end the state's last-in-the-nation primary is a very good thing, and one that other stragglers should follow.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

KS-Sen

The Republican-dominated Kansas legislature passed a bill Monday by veto-proof margins to strip Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly of virtually all of her power to fill vacant U.S. Senate seats or to choose appointees for treasurer or insurance commissioner.

The Kansas Reflector's Tim Carpenter explains that the new legislation requires that any vacancies for these three offices be filled by a member of the party that last won them. It would be up to a GOP-dominated panel to devise a list of three names, and the governor would be required to select one.

The bill comes more than four years after Kelly used her appointment power to temporarily give her party control of the treasurer's office. In 2020, the governor chose Lt. Gov. Lynn Rogers to replace Republican Jake LaTurner, who was elected to the U.S. House with two years remaining in his term as treasurer. Rogers went on to decisively lose his bid for a full term to Republican Steven Johnson in 2022 as Kelly narrowly won reelection.

Both of Kansas' senators, Jerry Moran and Roger Marshall, are Republicans. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, by far the longest such streak in the nation.

NC-Sen

Democrats are going to be waiting a while to learn whether former Gov. Roy Cooper, who is the party's top potential Senate recruit, will take on Republican Sen. Thom Tillis next year. NOTUS' Calen Razor writes that Cooper will begin an eight-week fellowship at Harvard's public health school next week and "has indicated to his allies that he will not make a decision until it ends at least."

One of the many North Carolina Democrats eagerly awaiting that decision is former Rep. Wiley Nickel, who has talked about running for the Senate ever since Republican lawmakers gerrymandered his district to make it unwinnably red. While Nickel has yet to announce a bid, journalist Bryan Anderson wrote in January that the ex-congressman is preparing to run if Cooper doesn't.

NH-Sen

Both Reps. Chris Pappas and Maggie Goodlander have confirmed reports from last week that they're interested in running to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a fellow Democrat. Neither representative, however, has offered a timeline for when they expect to decide.

Morning Digest: Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire institution, will retire from the Senate

Governors

NJ-Gov

Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli is out with the first TV ad from anyone on the Republican side ahead of New Jersey's June 10 primary for governor, and the one-time Donald Trump skeptic is using his $1 million buy to paint himself as a loyal Trump ally.

Ciattarelli wasn't so eager to associate himself with his party's master during his unsuccessful campaigns in both 2017 and 2021 to lead this longtime Democratic stronghold. The self-described "Abraham Lincoln Republican" even celebrated his primary victory four years ago by saying he "believes in tolerance, mutual respect, and the power and beauty of diversity," words that few Republicans would dare utter now.

But Ciattarelli is betting that his surprisingly narrow loss that year to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, as well as New Jersey's dramatic shift to the right in 2024, proves that the electorate wants something other than tolerance this year. In his new ad, the former lawmaker tells the audience that Garden State Democrats "care more about pronouns than property taxes," while promising he'll "work with President Trump and end Murphy's sanctuary state on day one."

Conservative radio host Bill Spadea, unsurprisingly, has a very different take on his primary foe's loyalties. Spadea has reminded voters that Trump called into his show last year to diss Ciattarelli as someone who failed to "ask for my support" in 2021. A pro-Spadea super PAC called Legacy of Liberty also began airing digital ads this week featuring audio of Trump telling the candidate, "​​You've had my back," though this message has yet to reach TV viewers.

Ciattarelli's side, though, is determined to deter Trump from endorsing Spadea. The ex-assemblyman and his allies have circulated an old clip of Spadea saying after the 2020 election that he didn't "want President Trump to run again," and that he "screwed up" by not firing Anthony Fauci and "every single person at the FBI." Politico's Matt Friedman also wrote last month that Ciattarelli's team has highlighted Spadea's underwhelming fundraising numbers to make the case that the radio host would be a weak nominee.

A pair of surveys conducted this year gave Ciattarelli a wide lead over Spadea, though a large portion of the electorate was still undecided. Several other contenders are also running, but they've barely registered in the polls. This group includes state Sen. Jon Bramnick, who has remained a Trump critic.

RI-Gov

Democratic Attorney General Peter Neronha has confirmed he's once again interested in running for governor of Rhode Island, though he doesn't appear to have said much more about his plans. The Warwick Beacon's John Howell writes that Neronha offered up a "maybe" when asked if he'd seek the top job, though the termed-out attorney general went on to discuss his work opposing the Trump administration.

The Ocean State is currently led by Democrat Dan McKee, who remains the subject of retirement speculation even after announcing his reelection bid earlier this month. Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, whom McKee narrowly defeated in the 2022 primary, is all but certain to run again.

House

NY-21

Rep. Elise Stefanik's months in confirmation purgatory will come to an end on April 2, which is when Axios' Stef Kight reports that Senate Republicans will finally advance her nomination to become ambassador to the United Nations. Kight adds that it's no coincidence that the scheduled date is the day after Florida holds special elections to fill a pair of conservative House seats.

Morning Digest: Nominate me now 'or I'm going to get it later,' threatens New York Republican

TX-18

Former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards on Wednesday became the latest Democrat to join the still unscheduled special election to succeed the late Rep. Sylvester Turner in Texas' 18th District.

Edwards rose to prominence in 2015 when she decisively won a citywide seat on the council, and her fifth-place finish in the 2020 primary for the U.S. Senate looked like just a temporary setback for a promising career. But Edwards had to change course in 2023 and give up her plans to run for mayor when Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee unexpectedly entered the race.

Instead, the former councilwoman decided to run to replace Jackson Lee in the 18th District, and her strong fundraising initially made her the frontrunner. But Jackson Lee again delivered an unwelcome surprise when she responded to her defeat in the mayor's race by seeking reelection.

This time, Edwards continued running against the woman she'd once interned for, but the incumbent fended her off 60-37. Jackson Lee died a few months later, and party leaders picked Turner over Edwards in a close vote to become the new nominee.

Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, meanwhile, tells the Houston Chronicle she's considering launching her own campaign for this safely blue city. Plummer, though, noted that Texas' resign-to-run law would force her to leave her current post if she ran for Congress.

Mayors & County Leaders

Pittsburgh, PA Mayor

Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey received endorsements on Tuesday from several influential labor groups ahead of his May 20 Democratic primary showdown with Allegheny County Controller Corey O'Connor. Gainey's backers include SEIU Healthcare, which supported his upset 2021 primary win against then-Mayor Bill Peduto, and the building workers union SEIU 32BJ, which stuck with the incumbent.