Morning Digest: Michigan Republicans get a big candidate for governor, but it's not all good news for GOP

A competitive House seat in the Detroit suburbs is now open

Rep. John James, Republican candidate for governor of Michigan (credit: Rep. John James campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

MI-Gov, MI-10

Republican Rep. John James launched his long-awaited campaign for governor on Monday, a move that will reshape two of Michigan's biggest races next year.

James, who would be the state's first Black chief executive, is the early frontrunner for the GOP nod in the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who cannot seek a third term.

Polls have shown James with a large lead against two rivals: state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, who was the GOP's only declared candidate before this week, and former Attorney General Mike Cox, who formed an exploratory committee last year. Democrats have a contested primary as well, while Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a former Democrat, is running as an independent.

Morning Digest: Garlin Gilchrist, who'd be Michigan's first Black governor, launches bid

Republicans, however, now need to find a new candidate to defend James' 10th Congressional District, which, according to calculations by The Downballot, favored Donald Trump by a 52-46 margin last year. Army veteran Alex Hawkins entered the Democratic primary for this suburban Detroit seat in February, while former prosecutor Christina Hines' kickoff came mere hours before James announced his gubernatorial campaign.

James, who also served in the Army, has long been one of the most prominent Republicans in Michigan despite two previous statewide defeats. James impressed his party during his first campaign in 2018 when he held Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow to a 52-46 victory in a harsh cycle for Republicans, a performance that immediately made him the GOP's top choice to take on Sen. Gary Peters two years later.

James lost that expensive battle 50-48 as Joe Biden beat Trump 51-48 in Michigan, but his fellow Republicans remained eager to see what he'd do next. He got an opening in 2022 after the state's new independent redistricting commission drew up a new 10th District in Macomb County, and James' strong fundraising—plus an anticipated strong year for the GOP—deterred other strong candidates from pursuing it.

James, though, defeated former Judge Carl Marlinga by a skinny 48.8-48.3 margin after major Democratic groups and donors wrote off the race. Marlinga challenged James again in 2024 and finally benefited from major outside support, though he still came nowhere close to matching James' huge fundraising network. The congressman fended off his challenger by a wider 51-45 spread, a margin of victory equal to Trump's performance in his district.

Even as the current electoral environment looks dim for the GOP, James made sure to link himself to his party's supreme leader as he launched his new campaign. The congressman declared, "President Trump and I have been in each other's corner through thick and thin for eight years—no reason that will end now."

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The best Dem election night in ages

Election Night

St. Louis, MO Mayor

St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones is the underdog in today's officially nonpartisan general election against Alderwoman Cara Spencer, a fellow Democrat. Spencer, who lost a close race to Jones in 2021, has spent their rematch insisting that the mayor has done a poor job managing the city. Jones has argued in response that St. Louis had made significant strides in fighting crime and improving its economy.

The challenger's message seems to be the one that's breaking through. Last month, Spencer earned the support of 68% of voters in the city's approval voting primary, while just 33% cast a vote for Jones. (While voters in the first round could cast as many as four votes—with a maximum of one vote per candidate—they're restricted to just one choice in the general election.) A subsequent poll for the political tip-sheet Missouri Scout showed Spencer ahead 55-31.

San Diego County, CA Board of Supervisors

Democratic Supervisor Nora Vargas' surprise resignation in December created a deadlock on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors just a month after Democrats defended their 3-2 majority at the ballot box. Seven candidates are now running to succeed her in today's officially nonpartisan primary. A runoff will take place on July 1 unless one person wins a majority of the vote, an unlikely scenario in a field this large.

The 1st District, which is based in the southern portion of the county, favored Kamala Harris 67-31, but Voice of San Diego's Jim Hinch writes that Democrats aren't assured of victory. The GOP is fielding Chula Vista Mayor John McCann, and Hinch says that his name recognition gives him an opening in what could be an unpredictable race. Two other Republicans are running, but neither former Imperial County Supervisor Louis Fuentes nor perennial candidate Lincoln Pickard has attracted much attention.

The main Democratic contenders are Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre, Chula Vista Councilmember Carolina Chavez, and San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno. The final candidate is Elizabeth Efird, a first-time contender who KPBS says "has a limited campaign presence."

1Q Fundraising

• GA-Sen: Jon Ossoff (D-inc): $11 million raised

• CO-Gov: Phil Weiser (D): $1.9 million raised

• VA-Gov: Abigail Spanberger (D): $6.7 million raised; Winsome Earle-Sears (R): $3.1 million raised

• CO-08: Manny Rutinel (D): $1.1 million raised (in nine weeks)

• IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc): $750,000 raised

• NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc): $1.46 million raised, $1.3 million cash on hand (considering bid for governor)

• PA-07: Lamont McClure (D): $140,000 raised (in five weeks)

• VA-AG: Jay Jones (D): $925,000 raised, $1.5 million cash on hand; Shannon Taylor (D): $525,000 raised, $660,000 cash on hand

• VA-LG: Pat Herrity (R): $500,000 raised

Senate

IA-Sen

State Rep. J.D. Scholten tells Politico he's now 50-50 on whether he'll seek the Democratic nomination against Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. That's a shift from just a week ago, when Scholten informed the Des Moines Register that he was leaning toward remaining in the legislature. Now, however, he now says the party's strong showing in Tuesday's elections has made him more likely to run statewide.

Morning Digest: Victory in Wisconsin Supreme Court race tops strong night for Democrats

MI-Sen, MI-13

State Rep. Joe Tate, who served as House speaker during the two years that Democrats were in charge of the chamber following the 2022 elections, told Detroit News columnist M.L. Elrick last week that he's considering seeking the Democratic nomination for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat. Tate also revealed that he's decided not to wage a primary campaign against Rep. Shri Thanedar, saying, "Senate or Bust."

Tate added that he does not have a timeline to make up his mind even as other Michigan Democrats move forward. Tate had planned to run for mayor of Detroit this year only to unexpectedly back out just days before his scheduled campaign launch.

NH-Sen

Donald Trump urged former Gov. Chris Sununu to run for the Senate on Sunday and pledged to "fully" back him. Trump also told reporters that Sununu has "been very nice to me over the last year or so," comments that come a year after Trump labeled Sununu "politically dead."

TX-Sen

Former Rep. Colin Allred will decide sometime this summer if he'll wage another Senate campaign, an unnamed source close to the Democrat tells CNN. Allred, who lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz last year by a 53-45 margin, publicly expressed interest late last month in running for Texas' other Senate seat.

Governors

CO-Gov, CO-AG

Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold announced Monday that she will run for state attorney general rather than enter the Democratic primary to succeed termed-out Gov. Jared Polis. The Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul writes that Griswold's "plans changed" as Sen. Michael Bennet became interested in claiming the state's top job.

Griswold is now campaigning to succeed termed-out Attorney General Phil Weiser, a fellow Democrat who launched his bid for governor in January—before chatter about Bennet emerged. Griswold will still have company in her new primary, though: Boulder County District Attorney Michael Dougherty and former state House Speaker Crisanta Duran both kicked off campaigns for attorney general in February.

MA-Gov

Former state cabinet official Mike Kennealy on Monday became the first Massachusetts Republican to announce a bid against Democratic Gov. Maura Healey. Kennealy's team says he's self-funded $2 million to begin his effort. A few other Republicans have shown interest in taking on Healey in this blue state.

PA-Gov

State Sen. Scott Martin, in comments shared by Lancaster Online, said Friday that he wasn't ruling out challenging Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro next year, saying he would "take it as it goes and see where the winds blow." Martin, who made those comments at a widely attended conservative gathering, ran for governor in 2022 but struggled to raise money and dropped out before the primary over what he said were health issues from a leg injury.

No major Republicans have entered the race against Shapiro yet, and two prominent names say we'll need to keep waiting on them for at least a few more months. Rep. Dan Meuser recently informed the media, "I would imagine just a public announcement can wait until mid-summer, so maybe Aug. 1, or something like that." Treasurer Stacy Garrity, likewise, said she'd make up her mind "probably in the summer."

One person who is intently waiting to see what Garrity will do is state Sen. Doug Mastriano, the party's disastrous nominee for governor in 2022. Mastriano informed a conservative radio show late last month that he was interested in running as a ticket with Garrity, and he even suggested that he was willing to take the number-two position for such a "team up."

The treasurer told the Pennsylvania Capital-Star on Saturday, however, that she and Mastriano "really haven't had any conversations" about such an arrangement. But an alliance could happen whether Garrity wants it or not: Pennsylvania is one of just seven states that nominate governors and lieutenant governors in separate primaries, with the winners joined together in what can often be an awkward "shotgun wedding."

House

MI-07

Marine veteran Andrew Lennox is considering running against Republican Rep. Tom Barrett in Michigan's swingy 7th District, reports Politico. Lennox showed interest in running for office as a Democrat last month after he was "fired by DOGE" (as he's put it), though he didn't specify what post he was looking at.

While Politico's piece says that Lennox's dismissal from Ann Arbor's VA hospital was only temporary, he remains interested in running. Lennox said he felt energized following last week's elections and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker's record-breaking speech on the Senate floor, saying, "People actually beat billionaires."

Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: Why Musk's victims could form the Democratic Party's vanguard in 2026

NH-01

Former state Sen. Tom Sherman informed the Portsmouth Herald he's interested in running to succeed Rep. Chris Pappas, a fellow Democrat who is running for Senate, in New Hampshire's 1st District. Sherman, who badly lost the 2022 general election for governor to then-Gov. Chris Sununu, said he doesn't "feel like I'm in any rush" to decide.

State Sen. Rebecca Perkins Kwoka, by contrast, told the paper she's "unlikely" to seek the Democratic nod, though she added she was "still thinking about it." Assistant Portsmouth Mayor Joanna Kelley likewise said she was "currently very happy in my role," though she doesn't appear to have explicitly dismissed running for Congress. Mayor Deaglan McEachern, though, said that such a campaign for him "would be a distraction to all the things I'm trying to do in Portsmouth."

No major Democrats have announced they're running yet, though the Herald says that a decision from Marine veteran Maura Sullivan "is expected soon."

On the Republican side, Manchester Alderman Joe Kelly Levasseur informed WMUR that if he ran, he'd wait until January before getting in. Levasseur, who took a close third in last year's primary, argued that a campaign launch nine months from now would represent "a real head start."

NV-04

Air Force veteran David Flippo announced Monday that he would wage a second campaign for the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford in the 4th District, a constituency that includes the northern Las Vegas area and part of rural Nevada.

Flippo narrowly lost last year's primary to former Mayor John Lee, an ex-Democrat who had Donald Trump's endorsement. Horsford went on to fend off Lee 53-45 as Kamala Harris was carrying the 4th by a considerably smaller 50-48 margin.

PA-07, PA-08

Former Rep. Susan Wild told Politico over the weekend that she would not seek a rematch against freshman Rep. Ryan MacKenzie, the Republican who narrowly unseated her last year in Pennsylvania's swingy 7th Congressional District.

Just next door in the conservative-leaning 8th District, however, former Rep. Matt Cartwright, however, reaffirmed his interest in avenging his close defeat against Rep. Rob Bresnahan.

Wild's comments came just over a month after Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure became the first prominent Democrat to launch a campaign against MacKenzie in a Lehigh Valley constituency where, according to calculations by the Downballot, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris 51-48. But Wild, who lost to MacKenzie 50.5-49.5 after an expensive race, said she'll be backing a different Democrat in the primary even as she kept their identity a secret.

"I certainly don't want to get ahead of this person," she informed Lindsay Weber of the Morning Call, "but I feel like we have the ability to be very very well represented after 2026." The former congresswoman, Weber writes, added that her preferred candidate will announce in "the coming weeks."

Politico separately reports that former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell is thinking about taking on MacKenzie, though there's no word yet if he's Wild's choice. Crosswell has not said anything publicly about his interest in running.

Crosswell was one of several Department of Justice officials who resigned in February after acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove ordered them to drop their corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams—a directive to which Crosswell sharply objected.

"I cannot work for someone who invokes leadership after forcing dedicated public servants to choose between termination and a dismissal so plainly at odds with core prosecutorial principles," Crosswell wrote in his resignation letter.

Crosswell repeated those themes in testimony before the House on Monday, saying, "[T]he day after I resigned, my sister had her first daughter and I want my niece to know the same democracy I've known."

McClure, meanwhile, announced Monday that he'd brought in $140,000 during the first five weeks of his campaign, a haul that's unlikely to deter other Democrats from taking him on.

The situation is different in the neighboring 8th District, where Cartwright remains the only prominent Democrat who has publicly discussed challenging Bresnahan. Democrats have good reason to hope that the former six-term congressman is their nominee again for this constituency in the Scranton area: While Donald Trump carried this one-time Democratic bastion 54-45, Bresnahan unseated Cartwright by a slim 51-49 margin after a hard-fought battle.

Cartwright told the Scranton Times-Tribune in January that he was thinking about waging a comeback in part because if he won, he'd "get all of my seniority back" as a member of the powerful Appropriations Committee. While the Democrat still has yet to commit to running, he recently informed Politico he saw Susan Crawford's decisive victory in last week's Wisconsin Supreme Court race as "very heartening."

That story ran on the same day Bresnahan was the subject of a separate New York Times piece detailing how the wealthy Republican has purchased and sold millions in stock in the three months he's been in office. Bresnahan, who previously called the practice of lawmakers trading stocks "sickening," spent the campaign attacking Cartwright for not co-sponsoring a bill to ban such trades.

Bresnahan, notes reporter Annie Karni, promised to support legislation to enact a ban but has yet to take action. The congressman's team told Karni that he's decided not to support another bill because he's crafting his own measure, though there's no word when it will be ready.

TX-18

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott finally announced Monday that the special election to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner would take place on Nov. 4. Abbott's move means that Texas' 18th District, a diverse and safely Democratic seat that includes part of Houston, will remain vacant for at least six months.

The 18th, however, may go still longer without a representative. All candidates will face off on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries, and a runoff will take place if no one wins a majority in the first round.

Abbott's proclamation did not specify when a second round of voting would be, though Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin says it would occur six weeks later. (Texas holds elections on both Tuesdays and Saturdays, so we don't know the precise date.) Candidates have until Sept. 3 to file.

Abbott's proclamation comes over a month after Turner died, a delay that made it impossible to schedule the special to coincide with regularly scheduled municipal elections next month.

The governor, who had moved much more quickly following the deaths of other members of Congress in recent years, claimed without evidence last week that he hadn't taken action because election officials in Houston's Harris County "need to have adequate time to operate a fair and accurate election, not a crazy election like what they've conducted in the past."

County officials defended their ability to do their jobs, while Democrats argued that Abbott was simply stalling to benefit House Republicans. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and others had threatened to go to court to compel Abbott to schedule the special, but no one seems to have taken legal action before the governor issued his proclamation Monday.

VA-02

Unnamed Democrats are recruiting former pediatric occupational therapist Pamela Northam, who served as first lady of Virginia from 2018 to 2022, to challenge Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, Politico reports. Northam, who is married to former Gov. Ralph Northam, has not publicly expressed interest in running for the 2nd District, a Virginia Beach-based seat that Donald Trump narrowly carried 49.5-49.3 last year.

Judges

NC Supreme Court

The North Carolina Supreme Court temporarily blocked a Friday decision by the state's Court of Appeals that ordered as many as 61,588 valid votes in last year's election for the state Supreme Court to be retroactively tossed out.

The winner of that election, Democratic Justice Allison Riggs, immediately appealed Friday's ruling. WRAL characterized the Supreme Court's stay as "standard practice" in situations involving ongoing appeals.

The high court's directive delays the start of a 15-day period that the appeals court ordered officials to establish so that voters could "cure" the alleged defects with their registrations or ballots.

Potentially impacted voters can still take action now, though, and election administrators have urged that "any voter who is concerned that their voter registration information is incomplete or is not up to date should submit an updated voter registration form."

WI Supreme Court

Wisconsin's last race for its state Supreme Court concluded just a week ago, but the next election has already begun: Conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley says she intends to run for another 10-year term a year from now, while the names of at least two liberal judges are already circulating as possible challengers.

Both of those potential candidates, Pedro Colon and Chris Taylor, considered running in this year's race but ultimately decided not to. That open-seat contest was won by Susan Crawford, who last week successfully defended the liberal majority that began with Janet Protasiewicz's win in 2023.

No matter what happens, though, the next contest will not determine control of the court. This time, the best that conservatives can hope for is to keep liberals from increasing their 4-3 majority, while liberals would love to expand their edge to 5-2. Conservatives will also be on defense in 2027, while the next liberal seat won't be up for election until 2028.

In our last Digest, we incorrectly stated the advantage Republicans hold on the North Carolina Supreme Court. Republicans have a 5-1 edge with Democratic Justice Allison Riggs recused and a 5-2 majority overall.