I remember DKE calculation had Biden lost it by about 32K votes.
That was a substantial shift, almost like doubling the losing margin. Cannot be explained away as a more R leaning migration into Yavapai voter pool. The county level she only lost Yavapai by a margin some 8k-9k votes larger than 2020.
How did Gallego fare? Would expect there he ran around or slightly worse than Biden 2020, given his statewide margin with more R leaning migration there.
In the initial vote in CA Senate 36, the noxious R Tony Strickland has 51% of the vote. Hopefully this number falls below 50%, or the runoff will be cancelled.
While this district runs the coast of OC with a small finger into LA county, Strickland is from Huntington Beach which usually produces the worst of the worst of OC Republicans.
He opts for the latter, he'll go in with the loser tag on him. History has - FDR notwithstanding - been unkind to losing VP candidates. And that's all I'm going to say about that.
Lynch has gone past his expiration date. But he expresses what I’m diuretic is a significant attitude among congressional Democrats.
Hakeem Jeffries complains that "the extreme left protest me more than they protest Donald Trump...I think because I've chosen not to bend the knee to either people on the far left and certainly not to Donald Trump and the far right."
ive been fighting against this electoral losing 'strategy' for 45 years; each district is different; Bernie Sanders is NOT a viable candidate for US Senate in WV; no matter what some naive thing is posted here; your post should be repeated over and over and over
Nah. If you think he could run a Senatorial campaign in West Virginia without addressing social issues, you're only fooling yourself. The fact that the Mountain State is now a so called "right to work" state speaks volumes over how much West Virginia has changed. He won the West Virginia primary in 2016 for the same reason Hillary Rodham Clinton won it in 2008. They weren't voting for him. They were voting against the Democratic Party.
How are these protests now from the far left? Are we asserting by default that anyone who is pushing Democrats in the House and Senate to do more is on the far left? Would the same be said about the Iraq War protestors back in 2006?
There are Trump voters who are protesting against House Republicans as well.
It's all about timing. Now that we are the out party, we can get away with protesting as opposed to two years ago when as the incumbent party, we had to make the case of keeping the White House and the government in general.
I agree with you. Elected Dems have a clear disdain for their own voters who expect more out of them. I say we send a good majority of those who believe that way, home.
Not really since polling shows a growing majority of the Dem base wants the Dems to be more forceful in opposing Trump. The fact the house dem leader attempts to obfuscate the broader dem base like this is instructive to his limitations as a leader.
I don’t have naive opinions I’ve been working on ‘state, local, and national’ campaigns since i was 10 years old, but some of us aren’t obsessed with being yesterday’s man. Tell your neighbor your old war stories don’t tell em to me.
not what is being argued here; pretty sure you know those of us here that are grounded on winning elections(you included)agree with you on many points; maybe just not this one
No he doesn't, because he IS "bending the knee to Donald Trump." It's not the far left that want him to stand up to these fascists, it's all Democrats. In normal times, he can worry about the "far left" pushing him to, I don't know, vote for Single Payer. But that's not what Democrats are asking him to do.
Less Hakeem Jeffries, more Jasmine Crocketts. That's what we want.
Jeffries' response would make sense if they were telling him to support Medicare for All or whatever part of the progressive policy agenda. Except they aren't. They're telling him to oppose republicans.
In what world is "oppose republicans" equal to "extreme left" ? The complacency from some parts of our leadership and their internal allies is utterly baffling at times. Right now I don't care about progressive vs moderate. We need leadership that wants to do their job and protect our country and its people as best they can. Seeking comity with their republican colleagues — who will never, ever, ever return the favor — is a proven failed strategy and they need to dig their heads out of the sand and act accordingly. There are people in the party of all ideological stripes that can do this right.
Jeffries' language use comes across as tailor made to make people see the group he speaks of as their enemy. Except that group is a major part of his base. We can see the results in the replies right here; democrats going into an insulting intraparty ideological slugfest.
Lynch is actually the ideal candidate to primary from the Left. District Vote share of 70%, in office for 20+ years, 70+ years old. I think the time is right to send him back home.
The only member of Congress who did not vote on the terrible GOP budget bill was Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), who is being treated for lung cancer and is retiring. Even if he had joined every other Democrat in opposing the bill, it still would have passed by one vote. However, Reps. Kevin Mullin (D-CA.), who recently suffered an infection following knee surgery, and Brittany Pettersen (D-CO), who recently gave birth to her second child, both missed an earlier procedural vote yet managed to make it to the House chamber to vote against the bill.
This guy is what is called a "DINO". This means, like a "RINO" on the Republican side, as Democrat In Name Only. How can ANYONE who calls themselves "Pro-life" (which in actuality means what it really is as "forced-birth") and be against the ACA (both Obama and I like the term "Obamacare") call himself a Democrat? Vote for the progressive attorney, if he runs, or anyone else, as the "TRUE" Democrat. We Progressives should seriously consider splitting off from the Democratic Party. We should form our own Progressive Party, maybe with AOC as our standard bearer, and force our requirements on what remains of the Democratic Party.
If you're referring to pademocrat, no that would be me. And I called myself that because at the time I joined DKE, I lived in Western Pennsylvania (in Greensburg). I've called seven states - New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Delaware plus DC - home during my lifetime.
Around the time ACA was being built and voted on, Lynch was definitely a pain to hear about, and I remember him wanting to be primaried so badly. For some reason, the past several years he's been out of the news and I forgot he was still in congress! But yeah, these latest comments of his are well in his character. Ideally the primary threat might just make him decide to retire, but with the attitude he has, I'm not so sure.
Rightly or wrongly he has a stronger base than we wish. He managed to obtain nearly 42.5 per cent in 2013 when running in the US Senate primary against Ed Markey.
He's a "Democrat" in the mold of "Dapper" O'Neil and James Kelly. Two former prominent Boston politicians who were "Democrats" both for the same reason Tulsi Gabbard and Rod Blagojevich were "Democrats", political necessity and because for the longest time, the Democratic Party in Massachusetts was considered the "Irish Party." And that was NOT meant as a compliment. Lynch stays in office only due to longevity and the fact that he has a genuine "rages to riches" story that makes him look more "reasonable" than he actually is.
There's already a progressive party. It's called the Green Party. Another one is the Peace & Freedom Party.
Also, aside from Lynch having a more mixed, anti-choice record prior to the Dobbs decision, he actually is far from being a DINO. In fact, he fought for accountability towards the Iraq War and even supported investigating President Bush about lying about the war.
MA-08 voted for Harris 62-35 and Warren 60-40 in 2024. In 2022 it was Healey 64-35. In 2020 it was Biden 67-31, Markey 67-33. The district covers south Boston and major suburbs south of the city like Quincy. It's a D+15 district and in fact the third bluest in the state of Massachusetts, a state well known for how deeply and reliably democratic it votes.
Lynch winning that district is so fundamentally unremarkable that bringing it up calls the whole argument that it's made in support of into doubt. Are we going to brag about how Nancy Pelosi is a democrat that "WINS elections" because she got reelected in San Francisco?
Daily Kos has a rule against third party advocacy; doesn't the Downballot as well?
Anyhow, there are a number of things we can do to try to push Dems to the left (though we should be careful about where we choose to do it.) Calling for a new "Progressive" third party is just stupid, as it would almost ensure a lot of Republican wins in states and districts where a majority of voters don't want that.
I don’t think pushing Democrats to take more action than they already are against Trump is exactly moving to the left. That’s like saying Liz Cheney is a liberal for fighting against Trump even though she’s a staunch neocon like her father.
Besides, Andrew Yang has already been failing in trying to elect politicians in his Forward party which he argues represents the “radical middle.” It takes no genius to figure out that the “Forward” brand name was actually Obama’s re-election catch phrase.
Back in 2020, Yang originally lent his support to the lesser known but more liberal Democratic Senate Candidate in the KY-SEN primary race, Charles Booker.
Then later after he lost the NYC Mayoral Race to Eric Adams in 2023 he says he was trying to get more centrists in the Democratic Party and apparently being unsuccessful at doing so led him to start the Forward Party.
FAIL. The Democratic Party ALWAYS has centrists and moderates. When have we never had plenty of them?
You can't be serious with this statement: "We Progressives should seriously consider splitting off from the Democratic Party. We should form our own Progressive Party, maybe with AOC as our standard bearer, and force our requirements on what remains of the Democratic Party." Even putting the silliness of this idea aside, AOC is actually a pretty standard Democrat at this point...
Frankly I wouldn't mind an annual Democratic Party conference where the stars and rising stars of the Democratic Party gather. The major parties in our brethren Anglosphere nations do this on an annual basis.
Tim Walz is not running for MN-Senate. Still considering a third term for gov.
This is good, we don't need a handful of Dem heavyweights slugging it out until August then turning around and trying to win inside a 2 month general election window. I'd like to see this race coalesce around one Democrat.
Praying to God Keith Ellison does not run now. Or Omar.
Continuing a trend of weak numbers for the Dem incumbent governor recently. Hochul, Healy, and Hobbs in mid to low 40's. But it's very early as well. Still not where I'd want to be as an incumbent in an ultra swing state.
Agree but it would be helpful if some Democratic incumbents were popular in their states to stand on their own. I think Healy will be fine and Hochul will still win even after a bloody primary but I am not pleased with GOP strength in the North East last year.
Is there anything in particular with Governor Katie Hobbs that would contribute to these polling numbers other than being a Governor in a state where Trump won again but Ruben Gallego also won election to the Senate?
She's another governor that has had the "weak" label on her ever since she eeked out a win in 2022 despite running a terrible campaign.
I'm not sure she's done anything specific but Democrats in particular love to cannibalize their own. She's been hounded by speculation she could be primaried by the Democratic SoS, and though he declined, it still helped fuel the belief that she is a weak incumbent.
My Governor Kathy Hochul of NY has had the same issue of being perceived as weak that she has been unable to shake, although she has done more to herself to deserve it than Hobbs seemingly has.
Nothing of what you have described suggests this is evidence that Hobbs should get a primary challenge. If anything, she should be commended for being the first Democrat being elected as Governor of Arizona since Janet Napolitano did back in 2002 (who was re-elected in 2006).
I wouldn't lump all those numbers together. Healey was polling stuff like 40-12 vs various opponents. That's not comparable with someone else polling 40-36. I wouldn't call any of the numbers weak specifically, since we're nearly two years out from election day and people don't like to truly admit to themselves how (and/or if) they are voting until August of election year.
Hobbs will have a serious campaign on her hands. Healey will not. Hochul might or might not, depending on if New York's recent statewide performances are reflective of where the state is going.
Does it really matter what this guy does. None of the Dems are really doing anything that personally makes them at risk. They all complain that they can't do anything because they have too few numbers. They have no imagination and the country is crumbling. Several Dems including John Fetterman have voted with the other side. What are they doing about them?
If LaRock gains traction, then it may require Sears to move further right to win the primary, thus harming if not killing her general election prospects.
Though LaRock to me is the latest in the long line of "where the hell does he think he's running?" candidates, in both parties. DOGE isn't popular nationally, but it's hard to think of a state where praising it is more harmful (at least with the general electorate) than VA, with the possible exception of MD.
Yeah, the recent polling showing Earle-Sears behind Spanberger by double digits is not a good sign for her.
It won’t be better though for a more DOGE friendly GOP candidate who defeats Earle-Sears in the primary. Doesn’t change how toxic Trump, Musk and DOGE are in VA right now.
If Mike Levin (D-CA) doesn't take a strong stand against that lithium battery storage facility in south OC (near homes) he will face a very strong backlash is the OC portion of his district. A statement he released seemed a bit wishy-washy.
The write-up on AZ02. Did you mean Trump over Harris by 15pt in 2024? He beat Biden by 8pt there in 2020.
You are right. Thank you for the catch, I've corrected!
I remember DKE calculation had Biden lost it by about 32K votes.
That was a substantial shift, almost like doubling the losing margin. Cannot be explained away as a more R leaning migration into Yavapai voter pool. The county level she only lost Yavapai by a margin some 8k-9k votes larger than 2020.
How did Gallego fare? Would expect there he ran around or slightly worse than Biden 2020, given his statewide margin with more R leaning migration there.
In the initial vote in CA Senate 36, the noxious R Tony Strickland has 51% of the vote. Hopefully this number falls below 50%, or the runoff will be cancelled.
While this district runs the coast of OC with a small finger into LA county, Strickland is from Huntington Beach which usually produces the worst of the worst of OC Republicans.
Vote will be certified Mar 6.
If Strickland does fall below 50%, forcing a runoff, what are the chances that Jimmy Pham can beat him? District looks pretty Red.
Wasn’t it in Huntington Beach that an NFL punter recently was arrested for protesting the city council’s plan to put up a MAGA plaque?
Chances slim. Yes, HB voted to install the maga plaque, but they also challenge most state laws on housing, schools and spending.
There will be NO run for the US Senate by Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN). https://www.mprnews.org/story/2025/02/26/gov-tim-walz-officially-rules-out-a-run-for-us-senate
imo this a tell for 2 things; he is running for re-election OR The Office Which Shall Not Be Named; imo he does not run for both
He opts for the latter, he'll go in with the loser tag on him. History has - FDR notwithstanding - been unkind to losing VP candidates. And that's all I'm going to say about that.
good points and I tend to agree but I think Walz has a slim opening IF Trump is as bad in this second term as I think he might be
Yes, but let's also keep this comic in mind:
https://xkcd.com/1122/
Lynch has gone past his expiration date. But he expresses what I’m diuretic is a significant attitude among congressional Democrats.
Hakeem Jeffries complains that "the extreme left protest me more than they protest Donald Trump...I think because I've chosen not to bend the knee to either people on the far left and certainly not to Donald Trump and the far right."
https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/1894463126763937802
imo Jeffries makes an important and valid point here
As usual, the far left did us no favors with their protests in 2024.
ive been fighting against this electoral losing 'strategy' for 45 years; each district is different; Bernie Sanders is NOT a viable candidate for US Senate in WV; no matter what some naive thing is posted here; your post should be repeated over and over and over
He’s more viable than anyone else not named Joe Manchin.
Nah. If you think he could run a Senatorial campaign in West Virginia without addressing social issues, you're only fooling yourself. The fact that the Mountain State is now a so called "right to work" state speaks volumes over how much West Virginia has changed. He won the West Virginia primary in 2016 for the same reason Hillary Rodham Clinton won it in 2008. They weren't voting for him. They were voting against the Democratic Party.
Sanders wouldnt break 40% in West Virginia on his best day; you know it, I know it, and Paleo knows it(thats why he mentioned Manchin by name)
you make my point; thank you
How are these protests now from the far left? Are we asserting by default that anyone who is pushing Democrats in the House and Senate to do more is on the far left? Would the same be said about the Iraq War protestors back in 2006?
There are Trump voters who are protesting against House Republicans as well.
It's all about timing. Now that we are the out party, we can get away with protesting as opposed to two years ago when as the incumbent party, we had to make the case of keeping the White House and the government in general.
Anyone who makes lawmakers uneasy is the "far left".
Yeah but I think Democrats in elected office need to watch it when it comes to labeling anyone “far left.”
It’s bad enough we have the GOP and Fox News labeling liberals the way they do as the far left.
We should show we have a higher attention than Republicans do.
I agree with you. Elected Dems have a clear disdain for their own voters who expect more out of them. I say we send a good majority of those who believe that way, home.
Not really since polling shows a growing majority of the Dem base wants the Dems to be more forceful in opposing Trump. The fact the house dem leader attempts to obfuscate the broader dem base like this is instructive to his limitations as a leader.
Posting isn’t politics, but it’s a great hobby for folks not built for the current political moment. Enjoy your keyboarding mate.
I don’t have naive opinions I’ve been working on ‘state, local, and national’ campaigns since i was 10 years old, but some of us aren’t obsessed with being yesterday’s man. Tell your neighbor your old war stories don’t tell em to me.
Thank you for your work... but about your attitude, a little modesty might suit you better.
Deleted some absolutely unacceptable comments on here. Attacks on other users are never okay. Don't do that again.
Yes, the “far left,” anyone who rocks the boat, is the same as the Republicans.
not what is being argued here; pretty sure you know those of us here that are grounded on winning elections(you included)agree with you on many points; maybe just not this one
No he doesn't, because he IS "bending the knee to Donald Trump." It's not the far left that want him to stand up to these fascists, it's all Democrats. In normal times, he can worry about the "far left" pushing him to, I don't know, vote for Single Payer. But that's not what Democrats are asking him to do.
Less Hakeem Jeffries, more Jasmine Crocketts. That's what we want.
Jeffries' response would make sense if they were telling him to support Medicare for All or whatever part of the progressive policy agenda. Except they aren't. They're telling him to oppose republicans.
In what world is "oppose republicans" equal to "extreme left" ? The complacency from some parts of our leadership and their internal allies is utterly baffling at times. Right now I don't care about progressive vs moderate. We need leadership that wants to do their job and protect our country and its people as best they can. Seeking comity with their republican colleagues — who will never, ever, ever return the favor — is a proven failed strategy and they need to dig their heads out of the sand and act accordingly. There are people in the party of all ideological stripes that can do this right.
Jeffries' language use comes across as tailor made to make people see the group he speaks of as their enemy. Except that group is a major part of his base. We can see the results in the replies right here; democrats going into an insulting intraparty ideological slugfest.
Lynch is actually the ideal candidate to primary from the Left. District Vote share of 70%, in office for 20+ years, 70+ years old. I think the time is right to send him back home.
Leadership doesn’t want anyone tampering with their strategy that has brought us Republican control of the White House and both houses of congress.
The only member of Congress who did not vote on the terrible GOP budget bill was Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), who is being treated for lung cancer and is retiring. Even if he had joined every other Democrat in opposing the bill, it still would have passed by one vote. However, Reps. Kevin Mullin (D-CA.), who recently suffered an infection following knee surgery, and Brittany Pettersen (D-CO), who recently gave birth to her second child, both missed an earlier procedural vote yet managed to make it to the House chamber to vote against the bill.
good on them; this vote is campaign messaging GOLD imo; it clearly shows Republican Party principles and priorties
This guy is what is called a "DINO". This means, like a "RINO" on the Republican side, as Democrat In Name Only. How can ANYONE who calls themselves "Pro-life" (which in actuality means what it really is as "forced-birth") and be against the ACA (both Obama and I like the term "Obamacare") call himself a Democrat? Vote for the progressive attorney, if he runs, or anyone else, as the "TRUE" Democrat. We Progressives should seriously consider splitting off from the Democratic Party. We should form our own Progressive Party, maybe with AOC as our standard bearer, and force our requirements on what remains of the Democratic Party.
It is obvious that Jonathan is a MAGA Republican by his totally tone-deaf comments.
yup..that must be true
No, I just think he was from “Pennsylvania” in a former life.
If you're referring to pademocrat, no that would be me. And I called myself that because at the time I joined DKE, I lived in Western Pennsylvania (in Greensburg). I've called seven states - New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Delaware plus DC - home during my lifetime.
Ok.
Around the time ACA was being built and voted on, Lynch was definitely a pain to hear about, and I remember him wanting to be primaried so badly. For some reason, the past several years he's been out of the news and I forgot he was still in congress! But yeah, these latest comments of his are well in his character. Ideally the primary threat might just make him decide to retire, but with the attitude he has, I'm not so sure.
Rightly or wrongly he has a stronger base than we wish. He managed to obtain nearly 42.5 per cent in 2013 when running in the US Senate primary against Ed Markey.
exactly; dude wins elections; pretty simple
Well, except for the election against Markey, which he lost. But yeah, except for the elections he loses, he wins elections
He's a "Democrat" in the mold of "Dapper" O'Neil and James Kelly. Two former prominent Boston politicians who were "Democrats" both for the same reason Tulsi Gabbard and Rod Blagojevich were "Democrats", political necessity and because for the longest time, the Democratic Party in Massachusetts was considered the "Irish Party." And that was NOT meant as a compliment. Lynch stays in office only due to longevity and the fact that he has a genuine "rages to riches" story that makes him look more "reasonable" than he actually is.
he wont be easily dislodged
Well aware. I know my hometown.
There's already a progressive party. It's called the Green Party. Another one is the Peace & Freedom Party.
Also, aside from Lynch having a more mixed, anti-choice record prior to the Dobbs decision, he actually is far from being a DINO. In fact, he fought for accountability towards the Iraq War and even supported investigating President Bush about lying about the war.
Lynch is a Democrat that WINS elections; full stop
Lynch also happens to represent a D+15 Congressional District in a state that is deep blue.
I'm far more concerned about unseating Republicans than I am with Lynch at this point.
MA-08 voted for Harris 62-35 and Warren 60-40 in 2024. In 2022 it was Healey 64-35. In 2020 it was Biden 67-31, Markey 67-33. The district covers south Boston and major suburbs south of the city like Quincy. It's a D+15 district and in fact the third bluest in the state of Massachusetts, a state well known for how deeply and reliably democratic it votes.
Lynch winning that district is so fundamentally unremarkable that bringing it up calls the whole argument that it's made in support of into doubt. Are we going to brag about how Nancy Pelosi is a democrat that "WINS elections" because she got reelected in San Francisco?
Daily Kos has a rule against third party advocacy; doesn't the Downballot as well?
Anyhow, there are a number of things we can do to try to push Dems to the left (though we should be careful about where we choose to do it.) Calling for a new "Progressive" third party is just stupid, as it would almost ensure a lot of Republican wins in states and districts where a majority of voters don't want that.
I don’t think pushing Democrats to take more action than they already are against Trump is exactly moving to the left. That’s like saying Liz Cheney is a liberal for fighting against Trump even though she’s a staunch neocon like her father.
Besides, Andrew Yang has already been failing in trying to elect politicians in his Forward party which he argues represents the “radical middle.” It takes no genius to figure out that the “Forward” brand name was actually Obama’s re-election catch phrase.
I forgot about the Forward Party's existence until just now, which just goes to show how much impact he's making.
Back in 2020, Yang originally lent his support to the lesser known but more liberal Democratic Senate Candidate in the KY-SEN primary race, Charles Booker.
Then later after he lost the NYC Mayoral Race to Eric Adams in 2023 he says he was trying to get more centrists in the Democratic Party and apparently being unsuccessful at doing so led him to start the Forward Party.
FAIL. The Democratic Party ALWAYS has centrists and moderates. When have we never had plenty of them?
The U.S. Green Party is basically a foreign OP; it's not a legitimate political organization.
You can't be serious with this statement: "We Progressives should seriously consider splitting off from the Democratic Party. We should form our own Progressive Party, maybe with AOC as our standard bearer, and force our requirements on what remains of the Democratic Party." Even putting the silliness of this idea aside, AOC is actually a pretty standard Democrat at this point...
What Gavin is up to next:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/26/gavin-newsom-podcast-maga-00206153
Maybe he can invite his ex-wife.
lmao; i saw what you did there; lol
How does Newsom have the time to do his own podcast? It's almost as if he's not even interested in being Governor of California.
Many Democrats in elected office serve in their roles to their fullest with no podcasts.
I wouldn't mind a "weekly address" kind of podcast for Governors or MoCs to communicate to their constituents.
Frankly I wouldn't mind an annual Democratic Party conference where the stars and rising stars of the Democratic Party gather. The major parties in our brethren Anglosphere nations do this on an annual basis.
Both make sense to me.
I’d be very onboard with such a confab
That could work!
Tim Walz is not running for MN-Senate. Still considering a third term for gov.
This is good, we don't need a handful of Dem heavyweights slugging it out until August then turning around and trying to win inside a 2 month general election window. I'd like to see this race coalesce around one Democrat.
Praying to God Keith Ellison does not run now. Or Omar.
i think neither of them would get nominated anyway
About the only thing Ellison has going for him vs. Omar is that he's been elected statewide and re-elected in the same office.
However, I doubt Ellison will want to run for the Senate.
Arizona Governor
Hobbs 43%
Taylor Robson: 35%
Hobbs: 40%
Kimberly Yee: 34%
Hobbs: 39%
Charlie Kirk: 36%
Hobbs 37%
McCain: 36%
Hobbs 40%
Andy Biggs: 38%
Hobbs 40%
Hoffman: 35%
@NoblePredictive | 1,000 RV | 2/11-13
Continuing a trend of weak numbers for the Dem incumbent governor recently. Hochul, Healy, and Hobbs in mid to low 40's. But it's very early as well. Still not where I'd want to be as an incumbent in an ultra swing state.
Trump will make them more popular; just give him time
Agree but it would be helpful if some Democratic incumbents were popular in their states to stand on their own. I think Healy will be fine and Hochul will still win even after a bloody primary but I am not pleased with GOP strength in the North East last year.
And Hobbs is very vulnerable
Is there anything in particular with Governor Katie Hobbs that would contribute to these polling numbers other than being a Governor in a state where Trump won again but Ruben Gallego also won election to the Senate?
She's another governor that has had the "weak" label on her ever since she eeked out a win in 2022 despite running a terrible campaign.
I'm not sure she's done anything specific but Democrats in particular love to cannibalize their own. She's been hounded by speculation she could be primaried by the Democratic SoS, and though he declined, it still helped fuel the belief that she is a weak incumbent.
My Governor Kathy Hochul of NY has had the same issue of being perceived as weak that she has been unable to shake, although she has done more to herself to deserve it than Hobbs seemingly has.
Nothing of what you have described suggests this is evidence that Hobbs should get a primary challenge. If anything, she should be commended for being the first Democrat being elected as Governor of Arizona since Janet Napolitano did back in 2002 (who was re-elected in 2006).
I wouldn't lump all those numbers together. Healey was polling stuff like 40-12 vs various opponents. That's not comparable with someone else polling 40-36. I wouldn't call any of the numbers weak specifically, since we're nearly two years out from election day and people don't like to truly admit to themselves how (and/or if) they are voting until August of election year.
Hobbs will have a serious campaign on her hands. Healey will not. Hochul might or might not, depending on if New York's recent statewide performances are reflective of where the state is going.
Does it really matter what this guy does. None of the Dems are really doing anything that personally makes them at risk. They all complain that they can't do anything because they have too few numbers. They have no imagination and the country is crumbling. Several Dems including John Fetterman have voted with the other side. What are they doing about them?
Crazy that one McCain son is considering running for congress as a Democrat and the other for Governor as a Republican.
Keep in mind that Cindy McCain started endorsing Democrats as soon as Trump and maga Republicans came on board.
VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Dave LaRock (R) challenges Winsome Earle-Sears, saying she's not conservative enough and promising a "Virginia DOGE".
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/02/26/virginia-trump-youngkin-larock-governor/
He probably won't be nominated and almost certainly wouldn't win the general if he were, but let the cat fud fly....
Regardless it doesn’t augur well for enthusiasm for Winsome-Sears
If LaRock gains traction, then it may require Sears to move further right to win the primary, thus harming if not killing her general election prospects.
Though LaRock to me is the latest in the long line of "where the hell does he think he's running?" candidates, in both parties. DOGE isn't popular nationally, but it's hard to think of a state where praising it is more harmful (at least with the general electorate) than VA, with the possible exception of MD.
It definitely goes to show how high on their own supply movement conservatives have become. Utterly divorced from reality at this point
Yeah, the recent polling showing Earle-Sears behind Spanberger by double digits is not a good sign for her.
It won’t be better though for a more DOGE friendly GOP candidate who defeats Earle-Sears in the primary. Doesn’t change how toxic Trump, Musk and DOGE are in VA right now.
If Mike Levin (D-CA) doesn't take a strong stand against that lithium battery storage facility in south OC (near homes) he will face a very strong backlash is the OC portion of his district. A statement he released seemed a bit wishy-washy.
Primary him!!