Speaking of ads, would reproductive rights groups please ask Melania for permission to include her video statement for an ad in Florida, and in every Republican-controlled state, where Abortion Rights is on the ballot?
Kamala & Democrats need to make Donald's age, mental/physical fitness, cognitive decline a key issue in the final 4 weeks. The Supreme Court as a bonus will get people to see sense and don't be as stupid to put him in ANY position of power again for the rest of his natural life!! 💙🇺🇲🙏🌊
I'm sort of wondering why we haven't seen much of this line of argument from the Harris campaign. The media isn't going to do it for her, and she's been very intentional about campaigning so far, so I think it's a conscious decision. Question is whether they have a blitz like this planned, and if so, for when.
I went through the 538 database and basically found Scott leading by 3-6% but interesting to me was that Scott seems to max out at 48%; giving Murcasel-Powell at least a puncher's chance if Trump doesn't run up the score here
The abortion and marijuana amendments being on the ballot here will definitely help; also, Scott has never been popular and DeSantis popularity is rapidly tanking; plus, the state Democratic party appears to be doing its best job in over 30 years; all things considered, the Democrats are in the fight this cycle(as opposed to 2022 when the state was basically uncontested)
Given the rapidly moving parts of the Florida electorate, all moving in the GOP's direction, I don't trust that pollsters have any idea how to model polling in the state. My sense is its closeness is a mirage just as has been the case in every election of the last 15 years except 2012.
Talking about actual election results; won't be responding to you further; you are wrong in your post; simple as that(let's be clear, the races were very close; your characterization is frankly idiotic; actual election results are not a 'mirage')
A good outcome wasn’t your original argument though, it was that FL races haven’t been close except for 2012. That’s just not true. 2022 was the exception. Most FL races, especially Pres, Gov, and Scott’s Senate race in the last 15 years have been very close. It’s just that Dems also were on the losing side in most of those races. It remains to be seen if 2022 is the new normal, but I think a lot of it had to do with Crist and Demings being bad candidates.
Polls don't err in the same direction always or forever, but I'm not seeing where your confidence or optimism about Florida is particularly well justified, even if we dismiss 2022 as an aberration (which we probably should.)
Fortunately Harris' campaign isn't chasing that chimera and is emphasizing more winnable states. DMP probably has a better, if not great, chance.
I have posted no confidence or optimism(I live here; I know the odds); I have simply pushed back against nonsense; every post I've made has been extremely conservative; and I've only pointed out actual election results
In 2020, Trump beat Biden here 51-48%; so with abortion as an issue(among others of course), it's not a crazy notion; however, the Harris campaign has not made any indication that they are seriously considering going for Florida's EVs; but Murcasel-Powell is running a serious statewide race
Scott has cleared the 50% threshold exactly 1 time in his entire political career; in 2018 he wound up with a whopping 50.06%; so, an upset is not entirely impossible
Yeah, Scott's election wins haven't exactly been remarkable. If he can barely even win those elections, that's a sign of how vulnerable he is in the Senate race.
Maybe Harris shouldn't go to Florida, but perhaps Walz should. Not every election is 2016, thieving. Clinton visited several reach states in 1996 and won most of them. Now this is definitely not going to be the same as 1996, but if the Harris campaign has really good reasons to be confident going into the second half of this month, a trip to Florida shouldn't be out of the question.
The 2022 statewide campaign was nonexistent; the voter participation was historically bad on the Democratic side; anyone wants to give me D+ the 2022 Florida statewide spread in a wager? I am taking the bet
Florida isn't a deep red state - 2022 is the only recent year where Republicans romped in the state (at least as far as top-line state elections, I'm not going further into the weeds than that).
However, I think Florida is slowly getting redder and is fairly inelastic now, so we will usually have a high floor but a low ceiling. It's going to be close, but it's probably more vain hope than really winnable in my opinion - getting the last 2-5% to win in this kind of environment is just really, really difficult.
We voted today early in person on our lunch breaks in Golden Valley Minnesota today. There was only 1 other person in there other than us, but that's not surprising as it's a random Thursday 5 weeks away from the election in a city that'll cast a total of ~12000 votes.
I would never take that bet, but it will be interesting to see that County map that Republicans like to use to show that the Republicans dominate areas with close to zero breathing humans
Interesting question. You made me go back and look at 2020. Unless I missed something, Biden won at least one county in all but OK and WV and in each, he had one county where he lost by about 1%. Can Harris do slightly better in Oklahoma City and the locale of WVU? Each is possible but I'd bet against it.
I don't know why everyone immediately answered "No." It's a small swing in OKC and Morgantown, WV. I think if she does well overall, she may win those two. Both counties swung to Biden by more than the national swing in 2020.
Happy and Healthy New Year to all who are celebrating - and all who aren't! We hope for peace in the new year, but that really seems like too much to hope for this year, so I'll just hope it's better than last year, somehow.
Speaking of ads, would reproductive rights groups please ask Melania for permission to include her video statement for an ad in Florida, and in every Republican-controlled state, where Abortion Rights is on the ballot?
https://nitter.poast.org/RonFilipkowski/status/1841815445390680081#m
Why do they need her permission?
Maybe they don’t. I don’t know the rules, or whether that video release is copyrighted.
If they can't use video, they can still quote her words while using a stock photo of her.
EARLY VOTE NEARS A MILLION
As of 10am, at least 963,673 Early Votes have been cast. These 15 states have at least 5000 votes:
VA 346,774
NJ 111,337*
WI 99,283
MD 95,697*
MI 62,869
IL 47,509
FL 45,526*
PA 33,408*
MN 32,788
IN 22,765
ID 20,662*
SD 12,498*
NC 11,884*
TX 8,601
CO 5,921*
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
* Eight of the 15 states above report party registration: CO, FL, ID, MD, NJ, NC, PA, SD.
Big old typo in your headline.
Thank you, fixed.
Kamala & Democrats need to make Donald's age, mental/physical fitness, cognitive decline a key issue in the final 4 weeks. The Supreme Court as a bonus will get people to see sense and don't be as stupid to put him in ANY position of power again for the rest of his natural life!! 💙🇺🇲🙏🌊
I'm sort of wondering why we haven't seen much of this line of argument from the Harris campaign. The media isn't going to do it for her, and she's been very intentional about campaigning so far, so I think it's a conscious decision. Question is whether they have a blitz like this planned, and if so, for when.
Why did the media do it to Biden but instead normalize Trump?
Florida is close or a mirage? https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1841872242092736899
At -2% for Harris, maybe that is enough for DMP to defeat Rick Scott.
Poll shows her down 5. Although Scott is below 50.
I have seen other polls with it at 2%(going to look for them); I am only going to post if they are reputable and public
I went through the 538 database and basically found Scott leading by 3-6% but interesting to me was that Scott seems to max out at 48%; giving Murcasel-Powell at least a puncher's chance if Trump doesn't run up the score here
I have low expectations when it comes to FL.
Me too
Yes, but it's by no means impossible.
The abortion and marijuana amendments being on the ballot here will definitely help; also, Scott has never been popular and DeSantis popularity is rapidly tanking; plus, the state Democratic party appears to be doing its best job in over 30 years; all things considered, the Democrats are in the fight this cycle(as opposed to 2022 when the state was basically uncontested)
Given the rapidly moving parts of the Florida electorate, all moving in the GOP's direction, I don't trust that pollsters have any idea how to model polling in the state. My sense is its closeness is a mirage just as has been the case in every election of the last 15 years except 2012.
You are just wrong about this; look at 2018 and 2020(I could list others but I won't)
Florida polls were right in 2018 and 2020 huh? News to me!
Talking about actual election results; won't be responding to you further; you are wrong in your post; simple as that(let's be clear, the races were very close; your characterization is frankly idiotic; actual election results are not a 'mirage')
Yeah I'd declare victory and go home as quickly as possible too if I was arguing on behalf of good election outcomes in Florida.
A good outcome wasn’t your original argument though, it was that FL races haven’t been close except for 2012. That’s just not true. 2022 was the exception. Most FL races, especially Pres, Gov, and Scott’s Senate race in the last 15 years have been very close. It’s just that Dems also were on the losing side in most of those races. It remains to be seen if 2022 is the new normal, but I think a lot of it had to do with Crist and Demings being bad candidates.
Polls don't err in the same direction always or forever, but I'm not seeing where your confidence or optimism about Florida is particularly well justified, even if we dismiss 2022 as an aberration (which we probably should.)
Fortunately Harris' campaign isn't chasing that chimera and is emphasizing more winnable states. DMP probably has a better, if not great, chance.
I have posted no confidence or optimism(I live here; I know the odds); I have simply pushed back against nonsense; every post I've made has been extremely conservative; and I've only pointed out actual election results
In 2020, Trump beat Biden here 51-48%; so with abortion as an issue(among others of course), it's not a crazy notion; however, the Harris campaign has not made any indication that they are seriously considering going for Florida's EVs; but Murcasel-Powell is running a serious statewide race
Agreed regarding Mucarsel-Powell's Senate race.
It could be possible though that she may end up winning the race while Democrats don't end up winning FL.
Scott has cleared the 50% threshold exactly 1 time in his entire political career; in 2018 he wound up with a whopping 50.06%; so, an upset is not entirely impossible
Yeah, Scott's election wins haven't exactly been remarkable. If he can barely even win those elections, that's a sign of how vulnerable he is in the Senate race.
Harris isn't making the Hillary mistake of getting diverted and ignoring the blue wall. If we lose Pennsylvania, were screwed.
Agreed; Pennsylvania has always been the 'key stone' state imo
She has enough money where she cooks spend in both FL and PA.
could – but I read what you meant.
Maybe Harris shouldn't go to Florida, but perhaps Walz should. Not every election is 2016, thieving. Clinton visited several reach states in 1996 and won most of them. Now this is definitely not going to be the same as 1996, but if the Harris campaign has really good reasons to be confident going into the second half of this month, a trip to Florida shouldn't be out of the question.
I’m not sure how much the abortion referendum will matter. Dobbs didn’t really seem to help much in FL in 2022.
The 2022 statewide campaign was nonexistent; the voter participation was historically bad on the Democratic side; anyone wants to give me D+ the 2022 Florida statewide spread in a wager? I am taking the bet
Florida isn't a deep red state - 2022 is the only recent year where Republicans romped in the state (at least as far as top-line state elections, I'm not going further into the weeds than that).
However, I think Florida is slowly getting redder and is fairly inelastic now, so we will usually have a high floor but a low ceiling. It's going to be close, but it's probably more vain hope than really winnable in my opinion - getting the last 2-5% to win in this kind of environment is just really, really difficult.
It's not impossible, though.
Agreed; difficult, not impossible
We voted today early in person on our lunch breaks in Golden Valley Minnesota today. There was only 1 other person in there other than us, but that's not surprising as it's a random Thursday 5 weeks away from the election in a city that'll cast a total of ~12000 votes.
Question: will Harris be able to win at least one county from all 50 states in November?
No.
No.
I would never take that bet, but it will be interesting to see that County map that Republicans like to use to show that the Republicans dominate areas with close to zero breathing humans
Interesting question. You made me go back and look at 2020. Unless I missed something, Biden won at least one county in all but OK and WV and in each, he had one county where he lost by about 1%. Can Harris do slightly better in Oklahoma City and the locale of WVU? Each is possible but I'd bet against it.
I don't know why everyone immediately answered "No." It's a small swing in OKC and Morgantown, WV. I think if she does well overall, she may win those two. Both counties swung to Biden by more than the national swing in 2020.
HPU poll of NC has President race tied and Stein up double digits for Gov: https://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2024/10/hpu-poll-presidential-race-remains-close-for-north-carolina-voters/
Dems tied in generic ballot. Wish they also polled the other statewide races.
Michigan poll:
Mitchell Research has Trump up 49% - 48%.
They are Republican-aligned, aren't they?
Their final 2022 poll had Big Gretch up just 50% - 48%. 😢
Yes. Terrible pollster.
Imo this is great poll for Both Harris and Slotkin
538 has Mitchell research below Gallup in it's ranking(draw your own conclusions)
NC-01 poll Davis, Harris and Stein up. https://x.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1841914900810994113
22% undecided. Davis at 42%.
Also Jackson up by 3 in AG race and Mo Green up by 9 in school superintendent race.
Apparently Tina Peters was just given 9 years for election crime felonies; Good
A little background, please. I don't remember that name.
Colorado County clerk who broke into the voting machines and thus making their security exposed
Mesa County Colorado
Also; her arrest was actually pretty funny due to the way she 'Drama Queen's ' the episode(I actually think that can be found on YouTube)
Interesting piece on the Philadelphia machine gearing up for the election.
https://www.insidernj.com/philadelphia-dems-gear-up-power-harris/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork
No racedep in NC-1 https://x.com/schlagteslinks/status/1841920853279441221
Winning the Black vote 82–9 in rural counties of NC is huge! Hope that is accompanied by high turnout – say, at least 80 percent.
"Kamala Harris is winning black voters 82-9 in this very rural seat". I may be dense, but I'm having trouble seeing what seat this is.
This is Don Davis's district (NC-1, PVI: D+2). In addition to Harris having a 1 point lead, Davis is leading 42-36.
The term racedep means racial depolarization, right?
looks like big problems for Lawlor in NYhttps://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1841925919302455442
Nice catch! I hope that photo travels far and wide.
Jones was just given a huge gift(I am still skeptical of his political skills)
Emily Ngo: "Photos show Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican locked in a tight race for reelection, in blackface dressed as Michael Jackson in 2006."
Happy and Healthy New Year to all who are celebrating - and all who aren't! We hope for peace in the new year, but that really seems like too much to hope for this year, so I'll just hope it's better than last year, somehow.