Morning Digest: A long-ago Republican president stars in a Democratic ad

And no, it's not the one you think

(credit: Hillary Scholten ad screenshot)

Leading Off

MI-03

Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten's newest campaign ad utilizes a full minute of audio of Grand Rapids' most famous congressman from yesteryear: the late former President Gerald Ford, who represented the area from 1949 until he resigned to become Richard Nixon's new vice president in 1973.

"My record is one of progress, not platitudes," the audience hears Ford say at the 1976 Republican National Convention as on-screen text praises Scholten as a bipartisan legislator who delivers for her constituents in Michigan's 3rd District. "And as we go forward together," the president continues, "I promise you once more to uphold the Constitution and to do the very best that I can for America."

Scholten, who faces Republican Paul Hudson next month in a general election that has attracted little outside spending, is not the first local Democrat to link themselves to Ford in what was once a GOP stronghold.

That stronghold, however, unexpectedly showed cracks in the 1973 special election to succeed Ford, whom Nixon tapped to replace the disgraced Spiro Agnew as vice president.

The race had looked like an easy hold for the GOP: The Democrat, Richard Vander Veen, had even lost to Ford himself in a 1958 matchup. But Vander Veen began to gain traction in what was then numbered the 5th District by reminding voters that Ford would take over if the unfolding Watergate scandal ended Nixon's presidency.

It was a scenario that Vander Veen embraced. In one newspaper ad, the Democrat castigated Nixon while tying himself to Ford, arguing, "Our President must stand beyond the shadow of doubt. Our President must be Gerald Ford."

The message resonated in an area that hadn't sent a Democrat to Congress in over six decades. Vander Veen pulled off a 51-44 victory against state Senate Majority Leader Robert Vander Laan―a Republican whom Ford graced with only a single campaign appearance―in what is still remembered as one of the biggest special election upsets in American history.

Ford did become president months later after Nixon resigned, but thanks to the Watergate wave, Vander Veen won a full term in November. The congressman, however, lost reelection to Republican Harold Sawyer as Ford was carrying Michigan during his unsuccessful campaign for a full term against Jimmy Carter.

Grand Rapids wouldn't be represented by a Democrat in the House again until Scholten flipped what is now the 3rd District in 2022, but she looks set to hold it. AdImpact relays that, while Democrats have spent $2 million on advertising, the GOP has spent less than $10,000.

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The Downballot Podcast

Blockbuster Dem fundraising + Senate GOP anxiety

New fundraising reports show Democrats absolutely obliterating Republicans up and down the ballot, while a leaked super PAC memo indicates some serious GOP anxiety about Senate race polling. That all looks like good news for Democrats, but polls still show an exceedingly close contest at the top of the ticket, so which pile of evidence is pointing the right way? It's the central question we're discussing on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—and the answer could very well be "both."

Our guest this week is Robert Reynolds Gambhir of Vote Rev, an organization that harnesses behavioral science to boost civic engagement. Robert tells us about Vote Rev's methods for enhancing traditionally impersonal get-out-the-vote efforts by asking voters to reach out to their friends. They dub the tactic "vote tripling," and campaigns are currently deploying it in the runup to the November elections.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a transcript!

House

MI-07

Republicans have stopped airing a second ad in a battleground House race in recent days after the DCCC sent a letter to central Michigan TV stations saying that a new NRCC spot targeting Democrat Curtis Hertel was false.

The ad in question (which is still available on the NRCC's YouTube page) charges that Hertel, who is seeking Michigan's open 7th District, "misused public funds for his political payday." But that assertion is based on a complaint filed by a conservative advocacy group with the state attorney general's office earlier this year—a complaint that has yet to be resolved.

The NRCC's ad, however, treats those allegations as substantiated fact, making it potentially defamatory. As we explained in the previous Digest regarding a similar recent incident in Ohio's 9th District, problematic ads run by third-party groups like the NRCC are vulnerable to getting taken down because TV stations could be held liable if they're ever found to defame a candidate.

MN-02

In the first poll we've seen out of Minnesota's 2nd District, SurveyUSA finds Democratic Rep. Angie Craig outpacing Republican Joe Teirab 49-41 even as the firm shows Kamala Harris with just a narrow edge at the top of the ticket. The poll, which was conducted for KSTP, finds Harris leading Donald Trump only 47-45 four years after Joe Biden carried this suburban Twin Cities constituency 53-45.

Craig flipped this seat during the 2018 blue wave and had to go through two expensive reelection battles to hold it, which is why the GOP hoped that Teirab would give her another tough fight. Major Democratic and Republican organizations, however, are instead treating Craig as secure and have yet to spend anything here.

The only notable outside spending in this race has been the nearly $1 million that the crypto-aligned Fairshake has deployed to help the incumbent. It's possible, however, that the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC will eventually make use of the $1.7 million it reserved in the Minneapolis media market back in July.

NY-22

Democrat John Mannion is airing a new ad intended both to defend himself against a story that drew unwelcome attention this summer and to turn the focus to a potentially damaging video of the Republican he's hoping to unseat, Rep. Brandon Williams.

Mannion's spot begins by decrying a recent commercial from the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund in which reporters discuss allegations that the New York state senator had created a "hostile work environment" in his office.

Those accusations come from an open letter by several former Mannion staffers published days before the June primary. Mannion, who denied wrongdoing, went on to decisively win the nomination for the 22nd District.

The New York Times reported two months later that investigators hired by the Senate concluded that Mannion did not violate the body's anti-discrimination or anti-harassment rules. The Democrat's new ad highlights that report, saying that "an independent investigation proved the complaints false," though not that's the only problem Mannion has with the GOP's attacks on him.

The Post-Standard's Mark Weiner writes that CLF's spot features a "digitally altered" New York Post story that now includes photos of five women whom the audience is meant to think are Mannion's accusers, even though they're nothing of the sort.

"These women are actually stock photographs from South Africa," Mannion's narrator says as the ad shows the original image on the site Shutterstock, complete with location information.

CLF tells Weiner it's ceased airing the ad in question, though it claims to have done so for a different reason. The super PAC instead says that a Mannion supporter complained that it used news footage showing her speaking to the candidate in a way that made it appear as though she was leveling allegations against him.

Mannion's spot then shifts gears, charging that the candidate in the race who "abused his employees" is actually Williams. The ad plays part of a video recorded last year in which the congressman angrily berates a former staffer. "I'll end every relationship you have," Williams threatens. "Every single friend."

The Post-Standard reported back in December that Williams upbraided his former chief of staff at a holiday party in an encounter filmed by another ex-staffer. The congressman later told Politico that he'd confronted the pair because, after he fired them, they'd threatened to retaliate by telling the media that Williams' daughter had posted sexually explicit videos on the site OnlyFans. Both former staffers denied Williams' accusations.

Williams and Mannion are competing in an expensive battle for the 22nd District, which includes the Syracuse and Utica areas. While Joe Biden handily carried this constituency 55-43 in 2020, Republican Lee Zeldin edged out Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul here 51-49 two years later.

The battle for the House is going to come down to the wire, so we’re staying on top of the most important stories like hawks. If you value our close coverage, we’d love it if you’d start a paid subscription today.

Congressional Leadership Fund

The pro-Republican Congressional Leadership Fund has announced another $12 million in ad reservations, which we've added to our House reservations tracker. All of CLF's new bookings are in media markets where the PAC has already been involved, except for $1.5 million described as going toward "Streaming Across Key Markets." It's likely, however, that this sum will be used in existing battleground races as well.

Ballot Measures

ID Ballot

Opponents of a ballot measure to bring ranked choice voting to Idaho have outspent the "yes" side $460,000 to $350,000 on advertising this year, Mia Maldonado reports in the Idaho Capital Sun, making it the rare state where supporters of revamping voting systems are getting outgunned.

Proposition 1 would replace Idaho's partisan primaries with the same type of top-four primary system that was pioneered in Alaska in 2022. All candidates would compete on one ballot, and the four contenders with the most votes—regardless of party—would advance to a ranked-choice general election. The measure would apply to races for Congress, the governorship, other statewide offices, the legislature, and county posts, though it would not impact presidential elections or contests for judicial office.

It would take only a simple majority of voters to approve the plan, but that likely wouldn't be the end of the battle. While a win would undo a law the GOP-dominated legislature passed last year to bar ranked-choice voting, lawmakers could pass a new bill to modify or outright Proposition 1.

But prominent Republicans like Gov. Brad Little, state Attorney General Raúl Labrador, and state House Speaker Mike Moyle, would prefer to just stop Proposition 1 this year. The state GOP has denounced the measure as "a plot to engineer election results to turn Idaho blue" and urged voters not to "Californicate Idaho's elections." (California uses a top-two primary system that does not involve ranking candidates.)

But Idahoans for Open Primaries, which is the main group backing the measure, argues change is necessary because the status quo prohibits independents, who make up about a quarter of registered voters, from participating in GOP primaries in a state where Republicans haven't lost a single statewide election since 2002. (Democrats, who have long been deep in the minority, allow nonaligned voters to cast ballots in their nomination contests.)

Former Gov. Butch Otter, who is Little's immediate predecessor, is the most prominent Republican to urge a "yes" vote. Former First Lady Lori Otter has also argued Proposition 1 is vital at a time when far-right politicians have been racking up victories in GOP primaries. Earlier this year, 15 incumbent Republican legislators lost renomination, leading to a net gain for hardliners.

MO Ballot

The campaign to restore abortion rights in Missouri remains flush with cash heading into the end of the campaign while its opponents are just about penniless.

The Associated Press' Summer Ballentine reports that Missourians for Constitutional Freedom ended September with $11 million in the bank in its effort to pass Amendment 3, compared to all of $5,000 for Missouri Right to Life. Missourians for Constitutional Freedom is making use of its massive war chest to continue airing ads attacking the status quo.

"An abortion ban with no exceptions for rape, incest, or women's health goes too far," says the narrator in one of the group's latest spots. "Whatever you think about abortion, we can all agree that politicians don't get to make our personal healthcare decisions. We do."

But while the battle to pass Amendment 3 has earned national attention, there are two contests underway over gambling measures that have collectively attracted more money. Amendment 2 would legalize sports betting in Missouri, while Amendment 5 would greenlight a new casino near the Lake of the Ozarks in the central part of the state.

Both "yes" campaigns have brought in far more than their opponents, with an especially lopsided battle in the latter contest. However, as Rudi Keller explains in the Missouri Independent, the casino giant Caesars Entertainment is still spending notable sums to stop Amendment 2. That effort isn't targeted at Amendment 5, but one supporter of the Ozarks project expressed concern that "confusion among the voters" could negatively impact his proposal.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Ruben Gallego (D): 47, Kari Lake (R): 42 (48-46 Trump) (early Oct.: 48-42 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Rick Scott (R-inc): 45, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 42 (50-44 Trump) (early Oct.: 44-41 Scott)

• MI-Sen: Marketing Resource Group (R): Elissa Slotkin (D): 46, Mike Rogers (R): 41 (45-44 Harris)

• MI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Slotkin (D): 44, Rogers (R): 40 (47-47 presidential tie) (early Oct.: 45-39 Slotkin)

• MN-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 42, Royce White (R): 35 (51-43 Harris) (early Oct.: 46-38 Klobuchar)

• NV-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 46, Sam Brown (R): 41 (47-47 presidential tie) (early Oct.: 48-41 Rosen)

• NC-Gov: Redfield & Wilton: Josh Stein (D): 45, Mark Robinson (R): 38 (48-46 Trump) (early Oct.: 46-36 Stein)

• NC-Gov: Quinnipiac University: Stein (D): 52, Robinson (R): 40 (49-47 Harris) (late Sept.: 52-39 Stein)

• NC-01: GQR (D) for Don Davis: Don Davis (D-inc): 50, Laurie Buckhout (R): 39, Tom Bailey (L): 6 (48-47 Trump)

• WI-03: Normington, Petts & Associates (D) for the DCCC: Rebecca Cooke (D): 49, Derrick Van Orden (R-inc): 48

Ad Roundup

• MI-Sen: Mike Rogers (R) - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D)

• NM-Sen: Nella Domenici (R) - anti-Martin Heinrich (D-inc)

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc) and the DSCC; Brown 

• PA-Sen: American Crossroads - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)

• NH-Gov: Kelly Ayotte (R)

• AZ-01: Win It Back PAC (Club for Growth affiliate) - anti-Amish Shah (D)

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc) - anti-Kirsten Engel (D)

• CA-03: Jessica Morse (D) - anti-Kevin Kiley (R-inc)

• CA-13: NRCC - anti-Adam Gray (D) (in English and Spanish)

• CA-22: Rudy Salas (D)

• CA-41: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Will Rollins (D)

• IL-17: Joe McGraw (R) - anti-Eric Sorensen (D-inc) (here and here)

• ME-02: CLF - anti-Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MI-08: CLF - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

• NE-02: CLF - anti-Tony Vargas (D) (here and here)

• NJ-07: Tom Kean (R-inc)

• NY-19: NRCC - anti-Josh Riley (D)

• NY-22: Brandon Williams (R-inc) and the NRCC - anti-John Mannion (D)

• OH-13: CLF - anti-Emilia Sykes (D-inc)

• OR-06: CHC BOLD PAC - anti-Mike Erickson (R)

• PA-07: CLF - anti-Susan Wild (D-inc)

• PA-10: CLF - anti-Janelle Stelson (D)

• TX-15: Michelle Vallejo (D) - anti-Monica De La Cruz (R-inc)

• TX-34: CLF - anti-Vicente González (D-inc)

• VA-02: CLF - anti-Missy Cotter Smasal (D)

• WA-03: NRCC - anti-Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc); CHC BOLD PAC - anti-Joe Kent (R)

• WI-08: Tony Wied (R)

• FL Ballot: Vote No On 3 - anti-marijuana amendment

• FL Ballot: Vote No on Amendment 4 - anti-abortion amendment

• OH Ballot: Citizens Not Politicians - pro-redistricting amendment