Morning Digest: A scandal-plagued GOP prosecutor faces a tough challenge in a red county

And a look at many more races that will impact the criminal justice system

Macomb County Prosecutor Peter Lucido (R) (credit: Peter Lucido Facebook)

Leading Off

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

With numerous jurisdictions both large and small holding elections next month to elect prosecutors and sheriffs, Daniel Nichanian profiles some of the major races to watch in Bolts Magazine. Several of these contests will be familiar to readers of The Downballot, but others are races we haven't previously covered.

One such showdown is in Macomb County, Michigan where a scandal-ridden Republican, Prosecutor Peter Lucido, is trying to fend off Democrat Christina Hines. 

An investigation conducted for the county government concluded in 2022 that Lucido had sexually harassed his subordinates and made racist comments about African Americans.

In a separate matter, the Michigan secretary of state's office told Lucido this month that it suspected he'd breached campaign finance laws by distributing a "newsletter from his public email address that linked to his campaign website." However, he'll still be difficult to defeat in a populous suburban Detroit community that favored Donald Trump 53-45 in 2020.

Down in Texas in Tarrant County, meanwhile, Republican Sheriff Bill Waybourn is seeking a third term in a former GOP bastion that has been moving to the left in recent years. Democrat Patrick Moses, as Sophie Novack recently detailed in Bolts, has faulted the incumbent for using taxpayer money for an "election integrity" squad.

"You just mentioned to us, sheriff, that you don't chase conspiracy theories," Moses said at a recent debate. "While neglecting the people that are dying in the jail, you're part of this great conspiracy."

But Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth and Arlington, remains difficult turf for Democrats. While Joe Biden's 49.3-49.2 win in 2020 made him the first Democrat to carry the county for president since native Texan Lyndon Johnson's landslide in 1964, Waybourn still won reelection 53-47 that year.

There are also several showdowns taking place in heavily Democratic areas where ideology rather than partisanship is at play. One such race is the election for district attorney in San Francisco between incumbent Brooke Jenkins and a prosecutor she fired shortly after assuming office in 2022.

Ryan Khojasteh was one of 15 people dismissed by Jenkins after she was appointed to replace Chesa Boudin, who was ousted in a recall campaign in which Jenkins played a major role. As Samantha Michaels writes in Mother Jones, Khojasteh is arguing that Jenkins' punitive policies have made the city less safe, but he's still trying to avoid linking himself too closely to Boudin.

"I have that middle path between Chesa and Brooke," Khojasteh explained as he seeks the office that first propelled Kamala Harris into the spotlight.

Nichanian has much more on these races from coast to coast. These include—but are by no means limited to—a New York race where a Democratic district attorney responded to his primary defeat by launching a write-in campaign, and a Texas election where a Democratic district attorney reacted to her primary loss by starring in ads for Ted Cruz.

The Downballot Podcast

TPM's Josh Marshall unravels the election's conflicting signals

Few people can cut through the noise like Josh Marshall, founder of the seminal Talking Points Memo and O-est of the O.G. political analysts. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, Josh explains how he concluded that Donald Trump's unorthodox get-out-the-vote operation is probably a mess—and why it could harm Republicans further down the ticket. He also tells us about some of the House races on the bubble that he's keeping an eye on, which seem to point to a solid Democrat year despite the polls.

That's a topic co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also delve into at the top of the show, when they discuss the "triage" now underway in the battle for the House. Big-money groups are starting to reposition their resources for the final two weeks, and so far, almost all of the moves have favored Democrats. Special elections have also brought good news for Democrats, as Nir detailed in a new article this week, so which pieces of evidence should you believe? As the Davids explain, it might just be all of the above.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

House

FL-13

The hardline Club for Growth has dusted off a two-week-old internal poll from WPA Intelligence that shows one of its allies in Congress, Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, outpacing Democrat Whitney Fox 51-45 in Florida's 13th District.

The Club released this survey shortly after the local firm St. Pete Polls publicized its own numbers finding the two candidates locked in a 46-46 tie. St. Pete Polls also put Kamala Harris ahead 50-47 in a district that Donald Trump carried 53-46 in 2020, while WPA did not include presidential numbers.

NY-03

On Wednesday, the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund became the first major outside group to launch an advertising campaign targeting Rep. Tom Suozzi since the Long Island Democrat decisively won the February special election for New York's 3rd District. CLF's new spot ties Suozzi to New York City Mayor Eric Adams by accusing both of wanting to raise taxes.

But CLF, which spent $5 million here last winter, doesn't appear to have such an ambitious budget in mind for the final two weeks of Suozzi's reelection campaign. The New York Post wrote Monday that the super PAC was instead "planning to roll out a roughly six-figure ad buy" on cable and streaming platforms. Notably, the report did not say that the group would invest in more expensive broadcast TV buys.

Suozzi, who has long been one of the most prominent politicians in Nassau County, left the House last cycle to wage a failed primary bid against Gov. Kathy Hochul, opening the door for Republican George Santos to win the race to succeed him. Suozzi got the chance to return sooner than planned, though, after Santos' colleagues expelled the scandal-drenched freshman. (Santos later pleaded guilty to federal fraud charges.)

Long Island Republicans badly wanted to protect their newly won seat against the well-regarded Suozzi in the ensuing special election, but national GOP groups did not keep pace with Democratic spending.

Just before the election, Nassau County GOP chair Joe Cairo reportedly "browbeat party leaders in Washington to spend more on advertising" for Republican Mazi Pilip, according to the New York Times. But while CLF doubled its spending in the final weeks of the campaign, it soon had reason to wish it resisted Cairo and kept its wallet closed. Suozzi ultimately crushed Pilip 54-46, and snakebit Republican donors have largely steered clear of the fall contest.

This time, the GOP is fielding Mike LiPetri, a former assemblyman who has struggled to raise money or attract attention in a seat that Joe Biden carried 55-44 in 2020. Major Democratic outside groups are also directing their resources elsewhere, though the crypto-aligned group Fairshake has spent $900,000 to promote Suozzi.

Judges

OH Supreme Court

Ohio Republicans have outspent Democrats $2.5 million to $1.6 million in advertising, as the GOP works to protect—and potentially expand—its one-seat majority on the seven-member state Supreme Court, reports Politico's Madison Fernandez.

Democrats need to win all three seats that are up this year to win a 4-3 majority—a tough task in a year when Donald Trump is poised to comfortably carry the Buckeye State. 

And conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein isn't making it any easier. The Ohio Capitol Journal's Megan Henry reports that Uihlein contributed $500,000 over the summer to a conservative PAC that has connections to the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. (The Chamber is led by former GOP Rep. Steve Stivers.)

One of this year's contests pits two justices against one another, though only one of them has been elected to the Supreme Court before. Democratic Justice Melody Stewart is trying to fend off Republican colleague Joe Deters, a former Hamilton County prosecutor whom GOP Gov. Mike DeWine appointed to fill a vacancy after the 2022 elections. The two are on a collision course because Deters decided that, rather than campaign for the remaining two years in his term, he'd take on Stewart for a full six-year term.

The race to replace Deters is a battle between two lower court judges—Republican Dan Hawkins and Democrat Lisa Forbes. In the final race, Democratic Justice Michael Donnelly is campaigning to hold his seat against Republican Megan Shanahan.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York City, NY Mayor

Two new candidates announced on Wednesday that they'd join next year's race for mayor of New York City, Democratic Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani and attorney Jim Walden, a registered independent who said he might run without a party affiliation or even seek the GOP nod.

The two join an increasingly crowded field seeking to replace incumbent Eric Adams, who was indicted on federal corruption charges last month.

Walden, whose old clients include former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, has compared himself to moderates like former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, but Mamdani cuts a very different ideological profile. The assemblyman, who would be the first Muslim to lead America's largest city, is a self-described socialist who has the endorsement of the local branch of the Democratic Socialists of America.

The Uganda-born Mamdani first made a name for himself by rapping under the stage name "Mr. Cardamom." Mamdani's oeuvre, the New York Times wrote in 2019, included a "rap about the fatty, greasy splendor of Ugandan-style chapati," which featured the flatbread in his music video. That musical career, Mamdani told Times reporter Emma Fitzsimmons "strangely enough" set him up well for elected office.

"Once you've tried to sell your mixtape to people who are just trying to get on the bus to go home," the lawmaker explained, "you're well prepared to get rejected when you're trying to get New Yorkers to sign your petition to get on the ballot at 6 a.m. at the subway station."

Mamdani first won office in 2020 when he narrowly unseated Assemblywoman Aravella Simotas in the Democratic primary for a seat in Queens and has more recently made a name for himself in part as a harsh critic of Israel's government.

He joins a primary that already includes City Comptroller Brad Lander and state Sen. Jessica Ramos, while former city Comptroller Scott Stringer and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie also formed an exploratory committee earlier this year. 

Adams' own political future was already looking tenuous even before his indictment. The incumbent still says he's running for another term, but not everyone's convinced that he'll be on next year's ballot.

There's been plenty of speculation about who else could get in the race, with Cuomo the center of much of the chatter. Mamdani used his announcement to attack both the incumbent and the ex-governor, declaring, "Life in this city doesn't need to be this hard, but politicians like Eric Adams and Andrew Cuomo want it to be this way."

San Diego, CA Mayor

SurveyUSA finds Democratic Mayor Todd Gloria with a 47-31 lead against independent Larry Turner, a dramatic change from the small 37-33 advantage for Gloria that the firm found one month ago. We haven't seen any other recent polls of the officially nonpartisan race to lead San Diego.

This new poll, which was once again conducted for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune, shows local voters favoring Kamala Harris 62-32. While that would represent a drop from Joe Biden's 69-29 showing here four years ago, Gloria still has every reason to emphasize his party affiliation―and question his opponent's lack of one.

In a recent debate, the mayor questioned why Turner was being tightlipped about who he'd vote for in the presidential election. The challenger responded by faulting Gloria for aligning so closely with Harris.

"I don't think he's being very smart," Turner warned, "because if you want to be the mayor for the next four years, then you are going to have to work closely with whoever wins."

Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: Emerson College for The Hill: Rick Scott (R-inc): 48, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 44 (52-44 Trump) (early Sept.: 46-45 Scott)

• MD-Sen: Emerson for The Hill and DC News Now: Angela Alsobrooks (D): 54, Larry Hogan (R): 40 (63-33 Harris) (mid-Sept.: 49-42 Alsobrooks)

• MI-Sen: Quinnipiac University: Elissa Slotkin (D): 52, Mike Rogers (R) 44 (49-46 Harris) (early Oct.: 48-48 tie) 

• NE-Sen-A: Change Research (D) for Dan Osborn: Dan Osborn (I): 48, Deb Fischer (R-inc): 46 (55-41 Trump) (early Oct.: 46-43 Osborn)

• TX-Sen: Emerson: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 48, Colin Allred (D): 47 (53-46 Trump) (late Sept.: 49-45 Cruz)

• WI-Sen: Quinnipiac: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 49, Eric Hovde (R): 48 (48-48 presidential tie) (early Oct.: 50-46 Baldwin)

• ME-02: Axis Research (R) for the NRCC: Austin Theriault (R): 47, Jared Golden (D-inc): 45 (50-41 Trump) (unreleased Oct. poll: 47-45 Golden)

• VA-02: Christopher Newport University: Jen Kiggans (R-inc): 46, Missy Cotter Smasal (D): 45 (47-45 Harris) (mid-Sept.: 45-40 Kiggans)

• FL Ballot: Emerson: abortion amendment: Yes: 53, No: 30 (note: Needs 60% to pass) (early Sept.: 55-26 Yes)

• FL Ballot: Emerson: marijuana amendment: Yes: 60, No: 34 (note: Needs 60% to pass) (early Sept.: 64-27 Yes)

• San Francisco, CA Mayor: Public Policy Polling (D) for Aaron Peskin: Aaron Peskin: 25, Daniel Lurie: 28, London Breed (inc): 18, Mark Farrell: 15 (All candidates are Democrats.)

• San Francisco, CA Mayor: LDI Research for Together SF Action (pro-Mark Farrell): Breed (inc): 25, Farrell: 21, Lurie: 21, Peskin: 20

Ad Roundup

• MD-Sen: Larry Hogan (R)

• NE-Sen: Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Dan Osborn (I)

• NV-Sen: Sam Brown (R) and Nevada Victory Committee - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc)

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc) - anti-Bernie Moreno (R)

• PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc) and the DSCC - anti-Dave McCormick (R)

• VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D-inc)

• WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)

• MO-Gov: Crystal Quade (D) - anti-Mike Kehoe (R)

• NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D) - anti-Mark Robinson (R)

• ND-Gov: Kelly Armstrong (R)

• WA-Gov: Dave Reichert (R)

• AK-AL: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Mary Peltola (D-inc)

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc) - anti-Kirsten Engel (D)

• CA-27: Everytown for Gun Safety - anti-Mike Garcia (in Spanish)

• IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D)

• ME-02: CLF - anti-Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MN-02: Joe Teirab (R)

• NC-01: NRCC - anti-Don Davis (D-inc)

• NH-01: Russell Prescott (R) - anti-Chris Pappas (D-inc)

• NM-02: NRCC - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc)

• NY-04: CLF - anti-Laura Gillen (D)

• NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R-inc) (here and here); Everytown - anti-Molinaro; CLF - anti-Josh Riley (D) (here, here, and here)

• NY-22: Brandon Williams (R-inc)

• PA-08: CLF - anti-Matt Cartwright (D-inc)

• PA-10: Janelle Stelson (D) - anti-Scott Perry (R-inc)

• VA-07: Derrick Anderson (R) - anti-Eugene Vindman (D)

• WA-04: Jerrod Sessler (R) - anti-Dan Newhouse (R-inc)

• WI-03: CLF - anti-Rebecca Cooke (D)

• NY Ballot: Vote No On Prop 1 - anti-New York Equal Rights Amendment; The Coalition to Protect Kids NY - anti-NY ERA

• OR Ballot: Oregon Rebate - pro-raise corporate taxes measure (here and here)

• OH Supreme Court: Healthy Economy, Inc - anti-Michael Donnelly (D-inc), Melody Stewart (D-inc), and Lisa Forbes (D)