Morning Digest: A top PAC's ad cancellations bring both good news and bad news for House Democrats

As the GOP gives up on three Nevada races, Democrats pull back in southeastern Wisconsin

Nevada Republican Drew Johnson with Speaker Mike Johnson (Credit: Drew Johnson For Nevada)

Leading Off

Independent Expenditures

A top Democratic super PAC just became the first major organization to cancel ad reservations in House races, making one set of moves that reflect confidence about the party's prospects in Nevada but another that indicates Democrats no longer feel they can flip a GOP-leaning seat in southeastern Wisconsin.

Over the weekend, the House Majority PAC pulled about $3.5 million in reservations from the Las Vegas media market, which is home to three potentially competitive seats held by Democrats.

The development was no surprise for followers of the Nevada Independent, whose Gabby Birenbaum first reported the news on Friday evening, or for those who read The Downballot: A month ago, we detailed in a featured item how the two top national Republican groups had all but given up on this trio of races, due in large part to poor candidate recruitment.

According to a tracker maintained by The Downballot, HMP had previously reserved $7 million in airtime in Las Vegas but hasn't used any of it, so even with its new cutback, the PAC could still run ads to defend Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee, and Steven Horsford. (The DCCC has spent about $400,000 on behalf of Lee in the 3rd District but nothing in the other two races.)

But given the absence of any planned activity by either the NRCC or the Congressional Leadership Fund and the pitiful fundraising by GOP candidates—who've barely run any ads themselves—it's just as likely that HMP will cancel the other half of its Vegas reservation. Any funds intended for Nevada can be redirected to other states, though the PAC will likely have to pay higher advertising rates for any new bookings made so close to Election Day.

While Democrats have reason to feel good about the three Nevada contests moving off the table, things are headed in the opposite direction in Wisconsin's 1st District. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Lawrence Andrea reported on Monday that HMP had cut $1 million in ad time for the race, about half of its total reservation intended to help Democrat Peter Barca unseat GOP Rep. Bryan Steil.

As in Nevada, HMP hadn't yet spent anything, and it still could. But unlike in the three Las Vegas-area races, Democrats are trying to go on offense against Steil, so any pullbacks suggest that HMP isn't seeing the sort of polling it had hoped to. Indeed, even a recent survey from the DCCC showed Barca trailing by a 49-46 margin, while a responsive poll from the CLF put Steil ahead 52-42.

Fortunately for Democrats, they have many other targets, a number of which are softer, as they seek to reclaim a majority: When it comes to the odds of each district flipping, Wisconsin's 1st ranks 26th on The Downballot's House Vulnerability Index.

(Note that HMP has not touched its reservations in Wisconsin's other competitive House race in the 3rd District, where it's already spent almost $600,000 to help Democrat Rebecca Cooke defeat GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden.)

This practice of canceling reservations when they're no longer needed—often referred to as "triage"—has a long history, but it's getting underway much later this year than in recent cycles. In 2018, it began in early October, while in 2020 and 2022, it started in late September.

That's likely a reflection of the smaller House playing field this year, though we'll still probably see a few other similar moves in the time remaining. To help you stay on top of all the maneuvering, bookmark our new 2024 triage tracker, which we'll keep updated through the election.

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Senate

NE-Sen-A

The conservative Senate Leadership Fund will spend $3 million to help GOP Sen. Deb Fischer win reelection in Nebraska, a dark-red state that the super PAC recently acknowledged was a "serious trouble-spot." 

SLF head Steven Law told Semafor's Burgess Everett, who first reported the news, that it was taking action because independent Dan Osborn’s allies were "putting crazy money" into this contest.

"We’re just closing the gap a bit," Law said after confidently predicting that Nebraskans would reject Osborn after they learned about his "Democrat ties and Bernie Sanders ideology."

But as Law himself wrote two weeks ago, SLF wouldn't be devoting serious money to what should be a safe state if it didn't have to. In an Oct. 8 donor memo obtained by Politico last week, SLF said it was "polling to assess whether intervention is necessary to protect the seat." Presumably, the answer was "yes."

NM-Sen

The DSCC will soon air coordinated ads with Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich in New Mexico in a race that has attracted relatively little outside spending. AdImpact has tracked a $390,000 buy through Monday evening, though this number can always rise.

TX-Sen

The pro-Democratic Senate Majority PAC announced Monday that it was launching "a multi-million dollar digital and radio investment in Texas," a state where it had not previously run any ads. SMP, however, did not disclose any other details about how much it would spend for this opening ad buy, which does not include any TV commercials.

The super PAC did release its first digital ad, which stars an emergency room physician highlighting the destructive impact of "Ted Cruz's abortion ban." After declaring she'd "never" support the Republican senator, the doctor argues that his Democratic foe, Colin Allred, "will restore a woman's right to make her own medical decisions."

SMP's announcement comes a little less than a month after its allies at the DSCC declared that they would commence their own "multi-million dollar investment" to help both Allred and fellow Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida.

However, as Patrick Svitek notes in the Washington Post, we still don't have any more information about how much the DSCC is deploying in each state, though we know that SMP has yet to engage in Florida.

House

AK-AL

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski delivered a cross-party endorsement on Saturday to Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who faces a difficult race against Republican Nick Begich.

"I think people that know me know that I have a similar philosophy and approach," Murkowski told the Alaska Federation of Natives Convention. "So I’ve appreciated the great work that she has done for the state, and I hope that she’s able to continue that."

Despite hailing from opposite parties, the two women have been allies for more than two decades. Peltola and Murkowski became friends while they served together in the state House from 1999 through 2002, and they remained so after Murkowski left for the U.S. Senate. 

Peltola crucially went on to help run Murkowski's successful write-in effort following the senator's loss in the primary to hardliner Joe Miller. Peltola, as Simon Montlake wrote a 2019 piece for the Christian Science Monitor, distributed red wristbands with the incumbent's name to ensure that voters spelled "Murkowski" correctly, including a version with Murkowski transliterated in the indigenous Yup’ik language.

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"We know how to spell Lisa. We know how to spell Murkowski," said Peltola, who went on to become the first Alaska Native elected to Congress following her 2022 special election victory.  

Murkowski, who's long had a contentious relationship with Donald Trump and his acolytes, returned the favor during Peltola's campaign for a full term later that cycle when she endorsed the new Democratic congresswoman. Peltola quickly reciprocated by backing Murkowski, who went on to beat a Trump-backed opponent in the ranked-choice general election.

FL-13

St. Pete Polls shows Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna deadlocked 46-46 against Democrat Whitney Fox in Florida's 13th District, a constituency in the St. Petersburg area that Republicans gerrymandered two years ago. This survey, which was conducted for the election analysis site Voting Trend and the progressive outlet The Florida Squeeze, shows Kamala Harris ahead 50-47 in a district that Donald Trump took 53-46 in 2020.

While these numbers are surprisingly strong for Fox in such tough turf, there are some caveats. The Democrat posted a 48-44 lead in a late August St. Pete Polls survey for a different client, the news site Florida Politics, so the latest numbers actually represent a small drop for Fox. Luna's backers at the far-right Club for Growth responded to that earlier data by publicizing an internal poll from WPA Intelligence that placed the congresswoman ahead 48-43.

But despite those earlier polls and Fox's strong fundraising, there's only been modest outside spending here since the late August primary. The Club and its fellow hardliners at the House Freedom Caucus have spent close to $400,000 together to aid Luna, while a Democratic group called Welcome PAC had deployed $260,000 for Fox. The largest House organizations, though, have yet to get involved directly.

Ballot Measures

MT Ballot

Republican Sen. Steve Daines is airing ads against a proposed amendment to bring top-four primaries to Montana even though Daines himself won't be on the ballot again until 2026. But the senator, Politico's Madison Fernandez reports, is taking advantage of a "campaign finance loophole" that not only lets him do this but also allows him to purchase ad time at the discounted rate that only candidates have access to.

Fellow Republican Troy Downing, who is running this year, is also airing a similar commercial attacking CI-126 in Montana's 2nd District, a dark red seat where he's on a glide path to victory. Rep. Ryan Zinke, as we wrote in our last Digest, is running an almost identical spot in the competitive 1st District, with the same narrator even voicing all three of the Republicans' ads.

Judges

NC Supreme Court

A trio of Republican lawmakers in North Carolina are demanding the state's Judicial Standards Commission open an investigation into Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs, claiming she's violated rules on judicial conduct and threatening unspecified "action"—which could include impeachment.

In a letter obtained by legal reform activist Billy Corriher, the three legislators complain that Riggs, a Democrat, is running attack ads against her Republican opponent, Jefferson Griffin, that show her "outlining her position on specific issues that may appear before the court while stating what she perceives to be her opponent’s position." Though they don't mention it specifically, that issue is abortion.

But like in other recent supreme court races where conservatives have leveled similar complaints, such as in Wisconsin and Georgia, Riggs' ads do not discuss specific cases. Rather, she's spoken in broad terms, saying she "believes in a woman's right to choose" and that "as women, we should be in charge of our own reproductive health care."

Her ads have also slammed Griffin for his views on the matter, pointing to a subsequently withdrawn opinion he signed onto last year as a member of the state's Court of Appeals that declared that "the life of a human being begins at the moment of conception." Such arguments, Riggs points out in one spot, have been used not only to ban abortion but also to curtail access to IVF and birth control.

Riggs reacted to the letter from Republicans by saying they'd accused her "falsely." charging that they were engaged in "attacks on judicial independence and free speech" and seeking to "weaponize" judicial ethics rules to aid Griffin. She also pledged to "continue to speak boldly and fearlessly" about her views in the final days of the election.

Griffin, meanwhile, responded by releasing his own ad claiming that Riggs is "under investigation by the Judicial Standards Commission." However, the letter from GOP lawmakers was sent a week ago, and there's no indication that the commission has opened any sort of inquiry, let alone found any wrongdoing.

So far, Riggs has had the advantage in getting her message out: Politico's Madison Fernandez reported on Monday that her campaign has spent $2.9 million to date, versus $900,000 for Griffin. Should Riggs prevail, Republicans will still hold a 5-2 majority on the court, but Democrats could regain control over the next several years.

Mayors & County Leaders

San Francisco, CA Mayor

A new poll from Sextant Strategies for the San Francisco Chronicle shows nonprofit founder Daniel Lurie defeating San Francisco Mayor London Breed 56-44 after simulating the ranked-choice process.

Breed, according to the poll, begins with a small 24-23 edge over Lurie when it comes to voters' first-choice preferences, with another 18% going to Supervisor Aaron Peskin. Another 14% back former Supervisor Mark Farrell, with Supervisor Ahsha Safaí clocking in at 5%. (All the candidates identify as Democrats.) Lurie, though, gains support as candidates are gradually eliminated and ultimately defeats Breed by double digits.

Sextant's last poll from early August found Breed beginning with 28%, while it was Farrell who outpaced Lurie 20-17. (That survey did not simulate an instant runoff.) Farrell, however, has spent the ensuing three months on the receiving end of unwelcome headlines, including allegations that he violated local campaign finance laws.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Ruben Gallego (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 41 (49-46 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 47-42 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: University of North Florida: Rick Scott (R-inc): 49, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 46 (53-43 Trump) (July: 47-43 Scott)

• FL-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Scott (R-inc): 45, Mucarsel-Powell (D): 42 (49-45 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 45-42 Scott)

• MI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Elissa Slotkin (D): 45, Mike Rogers (R): 38 (47-47 presidential tie) (mid-Oct.: 44-40 Slotkin)

• NV-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 48, Sam Brown (R): 41 (47-46 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 46-41 Rosen)

• WI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 45, Eric Hovde (R): 44 (47-46 Harris) (early Oct.: 47-42 Baldwin)

• NC-Gov: Redfield & Wilton: Josh Stein (D): 45, Mark Robinson (R): 37 (48-45 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 45-38 Stein)

• CA-47: WPA Intelligence (R) for Scott Baugh: Scott Baugh (R): 43, Dave Min (D) 40 (Unreleased late Sept. poll: 45-42 Min)

• MI-10: Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV: John James (R-inc): 47, Carl Marlinga (D): 44 (49-46 Trump) 

• FL Ballot: UNF: Marijuana amendment: Yes: 66, No: 30 (July: 64-31 Yes) (Note: Needs 60% to pass)

• FL Ballot: UNF: Abortion amendment: Yes: 60: No: 32 (July: 69-23 Yes) (Note: Needs 60% to pass)

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D) - anti-Kari Lake (R); Lake - anti-Gallego

• MD-Sen: Larry Hogan (R)

• NV-Sen: WinSenate - anti-Sam Brown (R) (in Spanish)

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc); Bernie Moreno (R) and the NRSC - anti-Brown; Americans for Contraception Victory Fund - anti-Moreno

• WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R)

• IN-Gov: Jennifer McCormick (D) - anti-Mike Braun (R)

• NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D)

• WA-Gov: Bob Ferguson (D) - anti-Dave Reichert (R)

• AZ-01: House Majority PAC - anti-David Schweikert (R-inc); Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Amish Shah (D)

• CA-09: Kevin Lincoln (R) and the NRCC - anti-Josh Harder (D-inc)

• CA-16: Sam Liccardo (D)

• CA-22: Rudy Salas (D)

• CA-49: Mike Levin (D-inc) - anti-Matt Gunderson (R)

• IA-03: VoteVets - anti-Zach Nunn (R-inc)

• MI-10: John James (R-inc) and the NRCC - anti-Carl Marlinga (D)

• NE-02: Don Bacon (R-inc)

• NM-02: Yvette Herrell (R) - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc)

• NV-01: Dina Titus (D-inc) - anti-Mark Robertson (R) (here and here)

• NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R-inc) and the NRCC; Molinaro (here and here); Josh Riley (D)

• OH-07: Max Miller (R-inc) - anti-Matthew Diemer (D) and anti-Dennis Kucinich (I)

• TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R-inc)

• TX-34: National Association of Realtors - pro-Vicente Gonzalez (D-inc)

• WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (R-inc)

• AZ Ballot: Yes on Prop. 139 - pro-abortion amendment (English) (Spanish here and here)

• FL Ballot: Yes on 4 Florida - pro-abortion amendment

• OH Ballot: Citizens Not Politicians - pro-redistricting amendment