I’m surprised at no mention of the Louisiana State Senate special elections also on Saturday. Even though they are technically primaries, they are jungle primaries and have 50+1 rule, where there might not be a general election
Fair! The reason, though, is that one race only has Dem candidates and the other only has GOP candidates. Who actually wins each race may wind up mattering a great deal to constituents and even the Senate as a whole, but that sort of thing is qualitative and very difficult to evaluate, especially from afar.
When you have a D vs. R race, though, there are ways we can analyze those contests on a strictly quantitative level. And just out of curiosity, I decided to look back at last cycle: There were about 60 specials that fit into the D-R rubric and around 30 that, for one reason or another, did not. So most specials do wind up on our radar!
It's pretty far back in time now, but the MN DFL had an awful time in 1978. Both Senate seats were up and had short-time incumbents; Walter Mondale was elected VP in '76 and Gov. Wendell Anderson pretty much appointed himself to the seat. In the other seat, Hubert H. Humphrey died in 1977 and was replaced by his widow Muriel, who didn't run in '78. The DFL lost both Senate seats and the governorship. It took them several cycles to get the Senate seats back.
Anderson appointing himself was a big mistake. Plus, Bob Short was a lousy candidate for the other seat. Rudy Boschwitz and David Durenberger were relative moderates.
Clearly you’re not following the political debates in Israel. I point you especially to the debate raging about the so-called "judicial overhaul", with its blueprint drawn up by the American-billionaire-funded Kohelet Institute. The "Judicial Overhaul" that PM Netanyahu and Justice Minister Yariv Levin et al are trying to force through brought 600,000 protesting Israelis into the streets.
You are correct, I have not exactly been following the political debates in Israel. Not just in recent years but going back decades. I ought to catch up sometime.
Per what James Trout was saying in his previous comment, that’s what I was referencing. As a Jew, just from the standpoint of living in the U.S., I believe that Jews who are not on the liberal side or are militantly pro-Israel tend to not be open-minded and go to the extreme to fight against any Jewish politicians who have differing points of views or agendas.
In the case of Boschwitz, he and supporters attacked Wellstone in a letter for marrying a non Jew (his beloved wife Sheila Ison Wellsteone whom he married at 19 was a Southern Baptist) and for not raising his three children in the Jewish faith. The letter called it a "threat to their communal way of life." There was - thankfully - a MAJOR backlash to the letter.
Thanks for the news about OH State Sen. Kristina Roegner running for Treasurer, which opens the most competitive OH state senate district, OHS-27, the area around (but not including) Akron.
Dr. Patricia Goetz got 49% of the vote challenging Roegner in 2022. Goetz is now on the Hudson, OH, City Council; in 2024 Ohio Republican gerrymandering cut the city of Hudson out of the middle of the state senate district.
Half the state senate district is in OH-13, Emilia Sykes’s swing US House seat.
OHS-27 has 3 nested state house seats (OHH-31, 35, 72).*
OHH-31 and 35 are 2 of the 3 most competitive R-held state house seats. In 2024, Democratic candidates in those districts got about 47% of the vote while massively outspent, respectively AJ Harris and Mark Curtis.
Strong down-ballot candidates can have reverse coattails that can help get out the vote for, among others, US House and US Senate candidates.
In short, OH-13, OHS-27, OHH-31, and OHH-35 are Super Swing Districts!
*WI also nests 99 lower house districts in 33 state senate seats, but unlike Ohio, you can tell by the number of the Assembly district the relevant state senate seat; WIS-27 Assembly seats are 79, 80, 81.
Illinois also uses consistent numbering for nesting state house districts: For example, LD-52 (Illinois uses "Legislative District" for state Senate districts) contains RD-103 and RD-104 (Illinois uses "Representative District" for state representative districts). Minnesota uses the state senate district number, followed by the letter A or B, for state house districts.
I doubt Richard Grenell would win the general election if Kamala Harris ends up running in the CA-GOV race.
However, I would prefer if Harris does not run. We need a fresher face, especially considering three of the leading Democratic candidates are women and the fact that California has never had a woman as Governor before.
One of President Donald Trump’s top aides said Friday that if former Vice President Kamala Harris enters the race for California governor, he might too.
“If Kamala Harris runs for governor, I believe that she has such baggage and hundreds of millions of dollars in educating the voters of how terrible she is, that it’s a new day in California, and that the Republican actually has a shot, and I wouldn’t say no,” Richard Grenell told reporters Friday in Munich.
Grenell is a longtime Trump loyalist who has served as a jack-of-all-trades for the president. As Trump’s U.S. envoy for special missions, Grenell joined Trump in Los Angeles to survey the wildfire damage, traveled to Venezuela for a meeting with President Nicolás Maduro that led to the release of six hostages and was named the Kennedy Center’s interim executive director after Trump purged its old board. During Trump’s first term, Grenell served as ambassador to Germany and briefly as acting director of national intelligence.
He laid the groundwork for a gubernatorial run in California in 2021 but announced on Fox News he would not run a day before the candidate filing deadline.
I’m surprised at no mention of the Louisiana State Senate special elections also on Saturday. Even though they are technically primaries, they are jungle primaries and have 50+1 rule, where there might not be a general election
Fair! The reason, though, is that one race only has Dem candidates and the other only has GOP candidates. Who actually wins each race may wind up mattering a great deal to constituents and even the Senate as a whole, but that sort of thing is qualitative and very difficult to evaluate, especially from afar.
When you have a D vs. R race, though, there are ways we can analyze those contests on a strictly quantitative level. And just out of curiosity, I decided to look back at last cycle: There were about 60 specials that fit into the D-R rubric and around 30 that, for one reason or another, did not. So most specials do wind up on our radar!
Oh, I thought SD-23 had 2 GOP, 1 Dem. Nevermind then
You could still mention the contests, though.
It's pretty far back in time now, but the MN DFL had an awful time in 1978. Both Senate seats were up and had short-time incumbents; Walter Mondale was elected VP in '76 and Gov. Wendell Anderson pretty much appointed himself to the seat. In the other seat, Hubert H. Humphrey died in 1977 and was replaced by his widow Muriel, who didn't run in '78. The DFL lost both Senate seats and the governorship. It took them several cycles to get the Senate seats back.
Anderson appointing himself was a big mistake. Plus, Bob Short was a lousy candidate for the other seat. Rudy Boschwitz and David Durenberger were relative moderates.
Although Boschwitz was anti choice and lost his seat because he accused Wellstone of being a "bad Jew."
Not very Jewish to attack a fellow Jew for having different points of view.
Clearly you’re not following the political debates in Israel. I point you especially to the debate raging about the so-called "judicial overhaul", with its blueprint drawn up by the American-billionaire-funded Kohelet Institute. The "Judicial Overhaul" that PM Netanyahu and Justice Minister Yariv Levin et al are trying to force through brought 600,000 protesting Israelis into the streets.
You are correct, I have not exactly been following the political debates in Israel. Not just in recent years but going back decades. I ought to catch up sometime.
Per what James Trout was saying in his previous comment, that’s what I was referencing. As a Jew, just from the standpoint of living in the U.S., I believe that Jews who are not on the liberal side or are militantly pro-Israel tend to not be open-minded and go to the extreme to fight against any Jewish politicians who have differing points of views or agendas.
In the case of Boschwitz, he and supporters attacked Wellstone in a letter for marrying a non Jew (his beloved wife Sheila Ison Wellsteone whom he married at 19 was a Southern Baptist) and for not raising his three children in the Jewish faith. The letter called it a "threat to their communal way of life." There was - thankfully - a MAJOR backlash to the letter.
I've written about the Minnesota Massacre a surprising amount over the years! Most recently in August when Walz joined Harris' ticket. https://www.the-downballot.com/i/147453526/leading-off
Thanks for the news about OH State Sen. Kristina Roegner running for Treasurer, which opens the most competitive OH state senate district, OHS-27, the area around (but not including) Akron.
Dr. Patricia Goetz got 49% of the vote challenging Roegner in 2022. Goetz is now on the Hudson, OH, City Council; in 2024 Ohio Republican gerrymandering cut the city of Hudson out of the middle of the state senate district.
Half the state senate district is in OH-13, Emilia Sykes’s swing US House seat.
OHS-27 has 3 nested state house seats (OHH-31, 35, 72).*
OHH-31 and 35 are 2 of the 3 most competitive R-held state house seats. In 2024, Democratic candidates in those districts got about 47% of the vote while massively outspent, respectively AJ Harris and Mark Curtis.
Strong down-ballot candidates can have reverse coattails that can help get out the vote for, among others, US House and US Senate candidates.
In short, OH-13, OHS-27, OHH-31, and OHH-35 are Super Swing Districts!
*WI also nests 99 lower house districts in 33 state senate seats, but unlike Ohio, you can tell by the number of the Assembly district the relevant state senate seat; WIS-27 Assembly seats are 79, 80, 81.
Illinois also uses consistent numbering for nesting state house districts: For example, LD-52 (Illinois uses "Legislative District" for state Senate districts) contains RD-103 and RD-104 (Illinois uses "Representative District" for state representative districts). Minnesota uses the state senate district number, followed by the letter A or B, for state house districts.
State's attorney Aisha Braveboy is one of the leading candidates, if not the frontrunner for the PG Exec race
Thank you for the catch, she should be there. I've fixed.
Me yesterday: I should list the frontrunners, it could remind people who they are.
Me today: Yeah, I can think of one person who really could use that reminder!
no worries, love dke/downballot and all the stuff you guys do! it’s my backyard more or less so figured I’d help!
What a great name!
Happy Valentine's Day to everyone except the Montana Republican Party!
https://www.instagram.com/p/DGEFZOrpHbS/?igsh=OXNoMThuZTdqcG5l
CA-GOV:
I doubt Richard Grenell would win the general election if Kamala Harris ends up running in the CA-GOV race.
However, I would prefer if Harris does not run. We need a fresher face, especially considering three of the leading Democratic candidates are women and the fact that California has never had a woman as Governor before.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/14/richard-grenell-kamala-harris-california-governor-00204330
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One of President Donald Trump’s top aides said Friday that if former Vice President Kamala Harris enters the race for California governor, he might too.
“If Kamala Harris runs for governor, I believe that she has such baggage and hundreds of millions of dollars in educating the voters of how terrible she is, that it’s a new day in California, and that the Republican actually has a shot, and I wouldn’t say no,” Richard Grenell told reporters Friday in Munich.
Grenell is a longtime Trump loyalist who has served as a jack-of-all-trades for the president. As Trump’s U.S. envoy for special missions, Grenell joined Trump in Los Angeles to survey the wildfire damage, traveled to Venezuela for a meeting with President Nicolás Maduro that led to the release of six hostages and was named the Kennedy Center’s interim executive director after Trump purged its old board. During Trump’s first term, Grenell served as ambassador to Germany and briefly as acting director of national intelligence.
He laid the groundwork for a gubernatorial run in California in 2021 but announced on Fox News he would not run a day before the candidate filing deadline.