Morning Digest: Alaska's top-four primary and ranked-choice elections survive repeal attempt

But conservative opponents of this unique system vow to try again

Credit: Alaskans for Better Elections Facebook

Leading Off

AK Ballot

A ballot measure to repeal Alaska's first-in-the-nation top-four primary system appears to have lost after an extremely tight contest, though it may take a recount to confirm the result.

After election officials finished tabulating ballots on Wednesday, Ballot Measure 2 had fallen short 50.1-49.9―a margin of 664 votes. The proposal, which was promoted by conservative activists opposed to ranked-choice voting, held a small edge for nearly two weeks following Election Day, but the margin tightened as late-counted votes were tallied, giving the "no" side a tiny but stubborn lead on Monday.

Supporters of the measure will have the option to request a recount up to five days after officials certify the results on Nov. 30, which would be paid for by the state since the margin was less than 0.5%.

But if Ballot Measure 2 falls short, we may see it again. Philip Izon, the activist behind the repeal campaign, announced earlier in the week that organizers would work to place a similar measure on the 2026 ballot in the event of a loss this year. Izon also noted that repeal advocates nearly won despite getting outraised by a staggering $14 million to $150,000 margin.

Alaskans made history in 2020 when they voted to do away with traditional party primaries and dramatically revamp their election system. All candidates now run on one primary ballot, and the four contenders with the most votes—regardless of party—advance to a ranked-choice general election.

Unless a recount changes things, the Last Frontier will once again use its unique electoral system in 2026, when the race to lead the state will top the ticket—and could prove to be a very busy one. That's because Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is set to become the first governor to be termed out of office since 2002, when the last Democrat to hold the post, Tony Knowles, completed his second term.

However, it's still possible that any Alaskans looking forward to their first open-seat race for governor in two decades will need to keep waiting. State lawmakers have speculated that Dunleavy could resign to join the new Trump administration, a move that would put a fellow Republican, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, in charge. So far, though, there are no reports of Dunleavy being offered a job that would take him out of the governor's mansion before his term is up in two years.

The Downballot Podcast

A come-from-behind shocker in North Carolina

In a stunning turn of events almost two weeks after Election Day, Democrat Allison Riggs surged to a narrow lead in her bid for a full term on the North Carolina Supreme Court after trailing by as many as 10,000 votes. David Nir and David Beard discuss this dramatic turnaround on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—but caution that legal challenges before a far-right judiciary await.

The Davids also talk to one of their favorite congressional reporters, Abby Livingston of Puck News, who shares her views on the gap between Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP ticket in this year's elections. Was it a special "Trump sauce" or candidate quality that saw them diverge? The answer might be both! Livingston also pulls back the curtain on the anonymous Democratic "bedwetters" who constantly fret to reporters, explaining that most are at least one step removed from any actual campaigns.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Governors

NY-Gov

Rep. Richie Torres declined to rule out a bid against New York Gov. Kathy Hochul in the 2026 Democratic primary after NY1's Kevin Frey asked the Bronx congressman about his interest in a possible campaign. 

"I've made no final decision as to where my future lies, but I'm concerned about the crisis of governance we have in New York State and New York City," said Torres. "That doesn't sound like a no," responded Frey, to which the congressman said, "That's all you're going to get from me."

RI-Gov

Outgoing Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who is reportedly considering a bid for her old job as governor of Rhode Island, did not rule out the idea when asked by Politico, though she said she would remain in Washington, D.C., at least until June when her son graduates from high school.

Meanwhile, term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha is also opening the door to a bid. After raising no money at all during the third quarter of the year, reports the Providence Journal's Katherine Gregg, Neronha blasted out a fundraising email this week decrying "an extraordinary vacuum of effective executive leadership" in the state, saying he believes "there will be a need for strong, experienced voices to fight for our shared values beyond 2026."

Neronha declined to tell Gregg what office he might seek, but when asked whether he might challenge Gov. Dan McKee, a fellow Democrat, he did not hesitate.

"Oh yeah," said Neronha. "I'll do everything I can to support a candidate who runs against this governor." The attorney general also suggested he would not run against former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, who nearly beat McKee in the 2022 primary and has stockpiled a sizable war chest ahead of a possible second run, though he did not completely foreclose the idea.

As for Raimondo, Gregg reports that "few in the Rhode Island political world seem to be taking that rumor seriously," citing the litany of problems the ex-governor left behind when she joined Biden's cabinet in the middle of her second term in 2021.

House

AK-AL

Republican Nick Begich defeated Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola on Wednesday after election officials finished tabulating ballots in the ranked-choice general election for Alaska's at-large House seat.

Following the first round of voting, Begich held a 49-46 lead over Peltola, with two minor candidates―John Howe of the Alaskan Independence Party and Democrat Eric Hafner―splitting the remaining vote. Begich ended up prevailing 51-49 after the state conducted ranked-choice tabulations.

Peltola won this seat in a stunning 2022 special election upset over Begich and another Republican, former Gov. Sarah Palin. A few months later, she secured a full term against those same foes. But while Peltola ran another strong campaign and earned considerable crossover support, an insufficient number of voters were willing to split their tickets in this conservative state, which backed Donald Trump 55-41.

FL-01

Republican state Rep. Joel Rudman announced Wednesday that he would run in the special election to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz, dubbing himself the would-be attorney general's "heir apparent."

That might be news to Gaetz, though, who has not said who he wants to replace him in Florida's 1st District, and, according to his father, that's not going to change. "Neither Matt nor I are endorsing any candidate," state Sen. Don Gaetz told Florida Politics on Saturday.

Rudman, a physician, launched a successful 2022 bid for the Florida legislature after denouncing pandemic safety measures. He quickly made a name for himself by passing a bill allowing healthcare professionals and insurance companies to reject patients "on the basis of conscience-based objections." Democrats argued that the law would legalize medical discrimination against LGBTQ people and others, a claim Rudman disputed.

FL-06

Ernest Audino, who serves as district director for Florida Rep. Michael Waltz, became the first Republican to enter the special election for the conservative 6th District when he launched his campaign on Tuesday. Audino, who retired from the Army as a brigadier general, has held his current job during Waltz's entire six-year stint representing the Daytona area.

The congressman is set to resign to become Donald Trump's national security advisor, though he has not yet revealed when his departure will take effect.

OH-09

Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in House history, won a 22nd term on Wednesday when the Associated Press declared her the winner over Republican Derek Merrin.

With all votes tallied, Kaptur led Merrin by a 48.3 to 47.6 margin, a difference of just under 2,400 votes. Since the gap between the two candidates is larger than half a percentage point, the race will not automatically go to a recount, though Merrin could request one that he would have to pay for himself.

Following the 2020 census, Ohio Republicans radically redrew Kaptur's Toledo-based 9th District with the aim of unseating her. Under the previous lines, Joe Biden carried the district 59-40, but after the GOP's new gerrymander, the district would have backed Donald Trump by a 51-48 spread, and it's likely Trump performed even better there this year.

But Kaptur has now twice survived Republican attempts to knock her off, ensuring Democrats will hold at least 213 seats in the next Congress.

The House is not done yet! Three races remain uncalled, and they could shrink the GOP’s already miniscule margin even further. If you appreciate our thorough coverage of all these overtime battles, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to support our work today. We ask $60 a year, which works out to just $5 a month.

Judges

WA Supreme Court

The Seattle Times has called the officially nonpartisan race for an open seat on the Washington Supreme Court for attorney Sal Mungia, who had the support of Democrats and the court's other eight members. Mungia defeated Municipal Court Judge Dave Larson, who was the state Republican Party's endorsed candidate.

With only a small number of ballots remaining to be counted, Mungia leads Larson by more than 21,000 votes, a gap that the Times' David Gutman says is insurmountable. Mungia's victory will earn him a six-year term and ensure the court will remain dominated by liberals.

Gutman also notes that the election, which was necessary because Justice Susan Owens hit the mandatory retirement age of 75, was the first contest for an open seat on the Supreme Court since 2012. Many justices have instead resigned mid-term, allowing governors to appoint replacements who can then run as incumbents.

Ballot Measures

CA Ballot

California voters have narrowly rejected a measure that would have raised the state's minimum wage from $16 an hour to $18, sending Proposition 32 to a 51-49 defeat. As 538's Nathaniel Rakich notes, this is the first time a minimum wage increase has lost at the ballot box in any state since 1996, when voters in Missouri and Montana both said no to hikes.

Legislatures

VA State House

Democrats will hold a firehouse primary on Saturday to choose a nominee for the Jan. 7 special election for the vacant 26th District in the Virginia state House, while local Republican leaders selected Ram Venkatachalam as their candidate at a party meeting on Monday.

Five different Democrats are running for the nod, though former Del. Kanna Srinavsan has endorsed hotel developer JJ Singh for the post he just left behind. Srinivasan is running for the vacant 32nd District in the state Senate, which will host a special election on the same day. Venkatachalam, meanwhile, lost a bid for the Loudon County Board of Supervisors last year by a 53-46 margin.

The two elections will determine whether Democrats retain control of both narrowly divided chambers in the legislature, though they should be favored. Both districts favored Kamala Harris by about 20 points, according to preliminary calculations from The Downballot.