Thanks for your Colorado coverage. Two notes on that... Polis won reelection against Ganahl in 2022, i.e. two years ago, not four. And while the Democrats hold large majorities in both houses of the state legislature, they lost seats in the House and thus will not have "super majorities" in either chamber in 2025. See: https://www.cpr.org/2024/11/15/colorado-democrats-may-lose-supermajority-state-house/
Boebert isn't a genius, but I don't think she is stupid enough for that move. She has a fairly safe House seat, which she would have to give up to run for Governor. She might not even get the GOP nomination, and then would be a severe underdog in a gubernatorial race in the general election. Is she really that delusional?
She only won by 11 in a Trump+18 seat, which is a pretty pathetic showing. NY-04 was a Biden+14 seat in 2020 and it ended up flipping too. I wouldn’t rule something like that happening in CO-04.
She might also be in trouble for her primary. She failed to get a majority this year and won primarily because of a split field.
Not saying she’ll run but we’ve seen people like Val Demings and Colin Allred give up safe house seats to run in very red states statewide. Lee Zeldin too on the GOP side.
“I don’t know if you know, but vampires are some cool people, are they not? But let me tell you something that I found out: a werewolf can kill a vampire. Did you know that? I never knew that. So, I don’t want to be a vampire any more. I want to be a werewolf.”
– Herschel Walker, Trump’s nominee for Ambassador to the Bahamas
Interestingly, our long hold over the Colorado Governorship is nothing new. Keep in mind that when Republican Bill Owens won in 1998 (and again in 2002), it had been the first time since John Arthur Love back in 1970 (winning his third and final term) that they had won it. Barring the state party getting smart and nominating someone who can appeal to suburbanites and running up the score in rural Colorado, it's hard to see him flipping it their back in 2026. This is not Ben Nighthorse Campbell's Colorado anymore.
Time to make 2026 just like 2006/2018, compete everywhere. DNC needs to bring back their 50 state strategy and nominate people who are good fits for their individual states or districts!! 💙🇺🇲
Slow day so I'm just going to ask a someone off topic, maybe poorly worded, maybe indelicate question.
Most or all of us come from Daily Kos, I think. Would you say that the level of ... engagement with reality that the average poster there has is similar to the average Democratic voter?
I know that's a poorly worded question but I'm trying to determine how deep in a bubble I am, I guess.
It's full of people who genuinely think that if the Democratic Party nominated Ilhan Omar types in every state and in every district, we would win EVERYTHING. Talk about living in a bubble.
"Progressives" had lower expectations in those days. Back then, bashing Bush the Younger and opposing the War in Iraq from the very beginning made you "one of them."
I read the DailyKos for DK Elections and for specific writers. These included Mark Sumner, Denise Oliver Velez, Timothy Lange (aka Meteor Blades), Charles Gaba (Brainwrap). Plus a number of other members of the community.
Also, the DailyKos’ coverage of the Russo-Ukrainian war was excellent!
I cannot say much about the average DK poster, because that was not the focus of my reading. But do the excellent above-mentioned writers represent average Democrats? I very much doubt that.
PS. Tigercourse, to answer your last question: I expect you are deep in the bubble of the educated and well-informed. :)
I think Meteor Blades and Egberto Willes are among the best writers on DK.
However, I will admit Daily Kos with as important of an influence it has on the Democratic Party and Democratic activism can be particularly loaded by rant diaries that don’t really offer any productive outlet for readers. This particularly applied to these unusually irritating anti-Bill Maher diaries during Biden’s term as POTUS which offered no discourse of disagreement with Maher and are about purity towards him as “turning more conservative” which is absolute BS considering he’s railed against tricked down economics for many years (not to mention being one of Obama and Pelosi’s biggest cheerleaders).
I really don’t care if anyone disagrees with Maher and others. That’s fair. We can’t expect all liberals, specially Maher, to be in agreement with us all the time but it’s not exactly wise to make the discussion about purity (let the Green Party do that since they don’t know how to win elections). However, what’s important is productive civil discourse.
"It's as if [the Biden Administration and Democrats] think it gauche to brag. Biden's comments about not putting his name on the stimulus checks was telling. I've suggested a shadow cabinet to help with this problem, but really every governor, every Democrat in office, needs to constantly remind voters what specifically he or she is doing to improve the lives of ordinary Americans. Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin did this – and won!"
– Jennifer Rubin, in response to Q&A in today’s WaPo
I’ve thought the shadow cabinet was a good idea. It new, creative and, for this country, innovative. Which is precisely why it will get nowhere with the Democratic leadership in congress.
Even without the Shadow Cabinet being formalized, Democrats who are articulate and experts in specific fields can significantly increase the noise they make in the news media. Moreover, this sets them up as go-to people when alternative expert opinions are sought.
This is so sad and heartbreaking: Majority of Senate Democrats voted to betray trans kids by voting for the NDAA that includes a provision denying gender-affirming care insurance under Tricare for trans youth.
Trans rights or trans funding? Is this not the latter?
Also curious: we can of course discuss the principles of this bill, but could you quantify the impact? How many kids seeking gender-affirming care do American service members covered by Tricare have?
It sounds like it’s not eliminating funding, it’s eliminating insurance coverage. This could save the military $0 a year, it could save millions. Depends on the medical needs of the pool of insured people. Im also curious about deductible and out-of-pocket. What about getting in-network discounts? I have no idea how Tricare works (I work in health insurance but not that kind) and there are plenty of ways health insurance coverage can help make a medical bill cheaper while also paying out nothing.
I’d be interested in knowing more how all of this works but I’m guessing it’s worst case scenario. I’ve reviewed many medical claims at work and helped pay hundreds of thousand of dollars. The ones that suck the most are ones where the claim is denied bc the medical plan doesn’t cover that, which is what this legislation sounds like. It’s a dead end. There are no special rules to trigger, no in-network or out-of-network things to review. Those people are fucked and owe the entire amount of the bill, the insurance won’t even look at it.
Since this is all so expensive, it’s basically taking away a right. Not a constitutional one. But, these people had the right to get medical care that their insurance would allow and now they don’t and it’s too expensive to pay out of pocket. That’s something being taken away from them. And since being trans is so closely associated with medical care, it takes away people’s ability to be authentically trans.
I just want to say thank you for posting the conversation with Aaron Rupar!
Thanks for your Colorado coverage. Two notes on that... Polis won reelection against Ganahl in 2022, i.e. two years ago, not four. And while the Democrats hold large majorities in both houses of the state legislature, they lost seats in the House and thus will not have "super majorities" in either chamber in 2025. See: https://www.cpr.org/2024/11/15/colorado-democrats-may-lose-supermajority-state-house/
Thank you! We fixed when the last governor election was.
Colorado R’s better be hopeful their nominee isn’t Lauren Boebert, or Democrats may win by more than Polis did in 2022.
Boebert isn't a genius, but I don't think she is stupid enough for that move. She has a fairly safe House seat, which she would have to give up to run for Governor. She might not even get the GOP nomination, and then would be a severe underdog in a gubernatorial race in the general election. Is she really that delusional?
agreed, she’s stupid but not ‘stupid’
Maybe MTG is dumb enough to take the plunge in GA instead.
She only won by 11 in a Trump+18 seat, which is a pretty pathetic showing. NY-04 was a Biden+14 seat in 2020 and it ended up flipping too. I wouldn’t rule something like that happening in CO-04.
She might also be in trouble for her primary. She failed to get a majority this year and won primarily because of a split field.
I think it’s likelier she loses her primary in a 1v1 than a GE, granted
She won’t run
Maybe she won’t run, and she may not have the runs – but Lauren Boebert definitely has a chronic case of Oral Diarrhea.
Not saying she’ll run but we’ve seen people like Val Demings and Colin Allred give up safe house seats to run in very red states statewide. Lee Zeldin too on the GOP side.
People tired of the house often do that.
I’m hoping Crow waits and runs for senate; he could be a ‘lifer’ imo
Only the best and the brightest:
“I don’t know if you know, but vampires are some cool people, are they not? But let me tell you something that I found out: a werewolf can kill a vampire. Did you know that? I never knew that. So, I don’t want to be a vampire any more. I want to be a werewolf.”
– Herschel Walker, Trump’s nominee for Ambassador to the Bahamas
Presumably he binge watched the Twilight series over the weekend?
It would be much worse if Walker where anywhere near a cabinet position.
Oh, I can think of lots of things that *could* be worse – but I’d rather not give them any ideas.
It’s weird that Ambassador to Bahamas is one of the earliest diplo announcements but hey as sinecures go Walker could have gotten something much worse
Interestingly, our long hold over the Colorado Governorship is nothing new. Keep in mind that when Republican Bill Owens won in 1998 (and again in 2002), it had been the first time since John Arthur Love back in 1970 (winning his third and final term) that they had won it. Barring the state party getting smart and nominating someone who can appeal to suburbanites and running up the score in rural Colorado, it's hard to see him flipping it their back in 2026. This is not Ben Nighthorse Campbell's Colorado anymore.
Time to make 2026 just like 2006/2018, compete everywhere. DNC needs to bring back their 50 state strategy and nominate people who are good fits for their individual states or districts!! 💙🇺🇲
And then watch as you all complain about the DNC spending money on pro-life candidates and then they lose anyway.
The 50-state strategy never existed and if it did, it certainly couldn’t nowadays with ticket splitting being dead.
Slow day so I'm just going to ask a someone off topic, maybe poorly worded, maybe indelicate question.
Most or all of us come from Daily Kos, I think. Would you say that the level of ... engagement with reality that the average poster there has is similar to the average Democratic voter?
I know that's a poorly worded question but I'm trying to determine how deep in a bubble I am, I guess.
No, definitely not. DK Mainpage is not how the average Democrat thinks at all. There’s a reason I avoided it like the plague
It's full of people who genuinely think that if the Democratic Party nominated Ilhan Omar types in every state and in every district, we would win EVERYTHING. Talk about living in a bubble.
I don't recall it being like that when I first joined in 2005.
"Progressives" had lower expectations in those days. Back then, bashing Bush the Younger and opposing the War in Iraq from the very beginning made you "one of them."
I read the DailyKos for DK Elections and for specific writers. These included Mark Sumner, Denise Oliver Velez, Timothy Lange (aka Meteor Blades), Charles Gaba (Brainwrap). Plus a number of other members of the community.
Also, the DailyKos’ coverage of the Russo-Ukrainian war was excellent!
I cannot say much about the average DK poster, because that was not the focus of my reading. But do the excellent above-mentioned writers represent average Democrats? I very much doubt that.
PS. Tigercourse, to answer your last question: I expect you are deep in the bubble of the educated and well-informed. :)
I think Meteor Blades and Egberto Willes are among the best writers on DK.
However, I will admit Daily Kos with as important of an influence it has on the Democratic Party and Democratic activism can be particularly loaded by rant diaries that don’t really offer any productive outlet for readers. This particularly applied to these unusually irritating anti-Bill Maher diaries during Biden’s term as POTUS which offered no discourse of disagreement with Maher and are about purity towards him as “turning more conservative” which is absolute BS considering he’s railed against tricked down economics for many years (not to mention being one of Obama and Pelosi’s biggest cheerleaders).
I really don’t care if anyone disagrees with Maher and others. That’s fair. We can’t expect all liberals, specially Maher, to be in agreement with us all the time but it’s not exactly wise to make the discussion about purity (let the Green Party do that since they don’t know how to win elections). However, what’s important is productive civil discourse.
Astute quote from Jen Rubin:
"It's as if [the Biden Administration and Democrats] think it gauche to brag. Biden's comments about not putting his name on the stimulus checks was telling. I've suggested a shadow cabinet to help with this problem, but really every governor, every Democrat in office, needs to constantly remind voters what specifically he or she is doing to improve the lives of ordinary Americans. Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin did this – and won!"
– Jennifer Rubin, in response to Q&A in today’s WaPo
https://wapo.st/49J2HOR
I’ve thought the shadow cabinet was a good idea. It new, creative and, for this country, innovative. Which is precisely why it will get nowhere with the Democratic leadership in congress.
Even without the Shadow Cabinet being formalized, Democrats who are articulate and experts in specific fields can significantly increase the noise they make in the news media. Moreover, this sets them up as go-to people when alternative expert opinions are sought.
This is so sad and heartbreaking: Majority of Senate Democrats voted to betray trans kids by voting for the NDAA that includes a provision denying gender-affirming care insurance under Tricare for trans youth.
https://www.advocate.com/politics/senate-passes-anti-trans-ndaa
Do you actually believe that this is the hill that Democrats should die on?
Yes, they should. Any concessions on trans rights are bad.
Trans rights or trans funding? Is this not the latter?
Also curious: we can of course discuss the principles of this bill, but could you quantify the impact? How many kids seeking gender-affirming care do American service members covered by Tricare have?
Funding for gender-affirming care using TriCare is the provision in question.
Precisely. Funding, not rights.
It sounds like it’s not eliminating funding, it’s eliminating insurance coverage. This could save the military $0 a year, it could save millions. Depends on the medical needs of the pool of insured people. Im also curious about deductible and out-of-pocket. What about getting in-network discounts? I have no idea how Tricare works (I work in health insurance but not that kind) and there are plenty of ways health insurance coverage can help make a medical bill cheaper while also paying out nothing.
I’d be interested in knowing more how all of this works but I’m guessing it’s worst case scenario. I’ve reviewed many medical claims at work and helped pay hundreds of thousand of dollars. The ones that suck the most are ones where the claim is denied bc the medical plan doesn’t cover that, which is what this legislation sounds like. It’s a dead end. There are no special rules to trigger, no in-network or out-of-network things to review. Those people are fucked and owe the entire amount of the bill, the insurance won’t even look at it.
Since this is all so expensive, it’s basically taking away a right. Not a constitutional one. But, these people had the right to get medical care that their insurance would allow and now they don’t and it’s too expensive to pay out of pocket. That’s something being taken away from them. And since being trans is so closely associated with medical care, it takes away people’s ability to be authentically trans.
How many kids will this impact? And how do they weigh against the other demoratic priorities in the NDAA?
SCOTUS will hear TikTok’s challenge to avoid a ban on January 10th in TikTok v. Garland.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/dec/18/supreme-court-tiktok-ban