Morning Digest: Congresswoman could make Wyoming a Freedom Caucus 'case study'

She beat Liz Cheney in 2022, and she could come home to run for governor

Wyoming Rep. Harriet Hageman (credit: Harriet Hageman campaign site)

Leading Off

WY-Gov

Rep. Harriet Hageman's camp revealed Monday that she's considering running for governor of Wyoming—a move that could give the far-right Freedom Caucus more power than they've achieved anywhere else in the nation.

A consultant for Hageman, who won the state's lone U.S. House seat in 2022 after overwhelmingly defeating incumbent Liz Cheney in the GOP primary, told Cowboy State Daily that the congresswoman's "decision is several months away." The comment came shortly after her side showed Politico a polling memo arguing she'd easily win a Republican primary for governor against unidentified opponents.

There's no word, though, whether the GOP firm Cygnal tested her in a hypothetical matchup against Republican Gov. Mark Gordon, who is also keeping this dark red state guessing about his plans. While Gordon—who beat Hageman in the 2018 primary for governor—is currently prohibited from seeking a third consecutive term, he hasn't ruled out challenging this ban in state court.

And such a suit, as The Downballot wrote in December, would likely succeed. The Wyoming Supreme Court has twice ruled that the 1992 ballot measure that imposed a two-term cap on statewide elected officials and legislators is unconstitutional because it was only statutory and did not amend the state constitution, which remains silent about term limits. The ban only remains in effect for the governor because no one has challenged it on that basis—yet.

Columnist Rodger McDaniel argued last June that Gordon needs to take this action to prevent the local Freedom Caucus from controlling the Equality State. He wrote, "The 2024 election will determine whether the Freedom Caucus runs the Legislature. The 2026 election will determine whether those extremists run the state."

Weeks after McDaniel penned those words, several legislative candidates backed by Hageman and the Freedom Caucus won primaries against contenders aligned with the governor and the old party establishment.

The general election left this bloc with a majority in the state House—a milestone that none of the Freedom Caucus' other 12 state affiliates have achieved in any other legislative chamber in the country. Gordon's veto pen, as well as more traditional Republicans' continued power in the state Senate, still threatens to stymie the far-right's agenda, but one prominent ultra-conservative thinks that it's only a matter of time before this changes.

"Wyoming is, I think, a Poli Sci 101 case study," Andrew Roth, who leads the State Freedom Caucus Network, told the Associated Press last month. "If conservatives enact policies that they said they would on the campaign trail, it's infectious with voters, and the voters will continue to reward them."

Hageman, who is part of the congressional Freedom Caucus, isn't the only hardliner who could test whether its eponymous offspring's agenda has Wyomingites craving more. Conservative activist Brent Bien, who lost the 2022 primary to Gordon 62-30, announced a second campaign in November.

Secretary of State Chuck Gray, an election denier who joined Hageman in assisting the Freedom Caucus' legislative slate last year, has also expressed interest in running for governor, while Treasurer Curt Meier hasn't ruled it out. However, it's possible that prospective GOP candidates could instead seek Hageman's House seat should she campaign for the top job.

Special elections are back, baby!

Senate

MI-Sen, MI-Gov

Democratic state Sen. Mallory McMorrow has decided to run for the U.S. Senate, the Associated Press reports, a declaration that would make her the first prominent candidate from either party to enter the race. McMorrow had expressed interest in running to succeed termed-out Gov. Gretchen Whitmer before their fellow Democrat, Sen. Gary Peters, unexpectedly announced his retirement last week.

The news about McMorrow broke days after the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke and Politico's Adam Wren separately reported that former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg has decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for governor but remains interested in campaigning to replace Peters. Burke subsequently relayed that Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist has taken his name out of contention for the Senate as he considers a bid for Whitmer's job.

Meanwhile, Rep. Haley Stevens and Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed have confirmed reports from last week that they're interested in running for the Senate. These two Democrats, unlike McMorrow and Buttigieg, never expressed interest in running for governor this cycle.

Governors

TN-Gov

Republican Rep. Diana Harshbarger said last week that she was thinking about running for governor of Tennessee, but only if GOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn stays out of the race. Harshbarger's comments to conservative radio host John Fredericks came shortly after State Affairs' Andy Sher reported that another member of the Volunteer State's Republican House delegation, Rep. John Rose, has told supporters that he plans to seek the governor's office even if he needs to go up against Blackburn.

House

MD-06

Former Del. Neil Parrott said Friday that he'd set up an "exploratory campaign" for a potential fourth bid for Maryland's 6th District in comments to Bethesda Magazine that came a week after he quietly filed paperwork with the FEC. The Republican lost last year's open seat contest to Democrat April McClain Delaney 53-47; according to calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the 6th by a similar 52-46 spread.

OR-06

The Oregon Court of Appeals last week dismissed a long-running lawsuit by Republican Mike Erickson over a 2022 campaign ad that now-Rep. Andrea Salinas ran against him. Erickson, who lost to the Democrat that year and again in 2024, did not respond to subsequent media inquiries asking for his reaction to the unfavorable ruling.

The commercial in question highlighted Erickson's 2016 arrest and conviction for drunk driving in which the narrator noted that, in addition to the DUI, the GOP candidate was "charged with illegal drug possession for illegal oxycodone."

Erickson's legal team responded to the spot by claiming that it violated a state law that requires nominees and elected officials to be removed if a judge rules that they knowingly made false statements about an opponent. They highlighted how his lawyer in the DUI case said that she'd made a "mistake" following his arrest by filing a plea agreement stating that prosecutors had "agreed to dismiss felony possession of controlled substance upon tender of guilty plea."

An attorney for Salinas, however, cited that very statement in support of the ad's truthfulness, arguing that "a charge is a charge, whether or not the DA files it." Erickson was unpersuaded, and he initially threatened to respond to a defeat at the ballot box by suing to overturn the election.

Salinas went on to defeat Erickson 50-48 to win Oregon's new 6th District, and he soon made good on his threat to continue with his lawsuit seeking $800,000 in damages—though he brought only claims for defamation rather than attempting to reverse the election results. He also sought to avenge his defeat at the ballot box, but the 2024 campaign ended in a larger 53-46 victory for Salinas.

Erickson got some more unwelcome news last week when the state Court of Appeals dismissed his lawsuit. The judges wrote that, despite the plaintiff's arguments to the contrary, the word "charged" often functions as a synonym for "accused of a crime by law enforcement." They also said the Republican "signed a release agreement in which law enforcement referred to the felony drug possession as a charge against him, which does not match plaintiff's argued understanding of the term."

Legislatures

PA State House

Both parties have picked their nominees for the March 25 special election for the Pennsylvania state House, a contest that Democrats need to win to restore their 1-seat majority.

Democratic leaders chose Dan Goughnour, a school board member and police officer in the Pittsburgh suburb of McKeesport, as their contender to succeed the late Democratic state Rep. Matt Gergely. The GOP standard bearer is Charles Davis, a borough counselor in the nearby community of White Oak.

According to calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the 35th District by a 58-42 margin, very similar to Joe Biden's 57-41 win four years earlier.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

The Democratic firm Honan Strategy Group has released a poll showing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo starting with a big advantage if he runs in the June Democratic primary, a contest he has not yet committed to entering. The results of the first round of the ranked-choice contest, which Honan tells The Downballot was not conducted for a client, are below:

• Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo: 35

• City Comptroller Brad Lander: 10

• Mayor Eric Adams: 9

• Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani: 9

• Former City Comptroller Scott Stringer: 8

• State Sen. Jessica Ramos: 6

• State Sen. Zellnor Myrie: 3

• Undecided: 20

Honan, after simulating the ranked-choice process, finds Cuomo beating Lander 58-17 on the sixth and final round of tabulations. A pair of recent polls have also found the former governor, who resigned in disgrace four years ago, with a wide lead ahead of his anticipated comeback campaign.

Correction: This piece incorrectly stated that the Associated Press reported that Mallory McMorrow’s Senate kickoff would occur on Feb. 4. The AP did not specify a date for the announcement.