Here’s a truly excellent analysis of the opportunities in Nebraska, with focus on the Senate race between Independent Dan Sanborn and Republican incumbent Debbie Fischer. Prof. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium take a "moneyball" approach, with comparisons between various Senate races, examining where money and effort (not the same) would have the most impact. Fascinating reading.
His aim here is not prediction, but rather to suggest optimal use of resources: effort and money.
I agree with you about Texas and suggest adding Deb Mucarsel-Powell in Florida as another fallback. I think she will beat Rick Scott. And I do think Dan Osborn in Nebraska is a good longshot that’s well worth investing in.
A reminder that the overturning of Roe v Wade will -never- become old news as long as it is not undone, and guys who think it will go out of women's minds are doing so only because their lack of uteruses enable -them- to pretend it's no longer a current event.
It will actually get much worse for Republicans for two reasons.
1) It takes roughly two years for state medical boards to review deaths to determine if they could have been avoided. For instance, the ProPublica account of the two women in Georgia who are known to have died due to Roe being overturned died a few months after the Dobbs decision. There will be many more deaths that come to light in the years to come.
2) Scientific and medical improvements will make abortion even more useful to women with health problems or who have fetuses who are not viable.
As an example, my wife had and abortion in 2016 due to the fetus having Edwards Syndrome; the test which showed that fetal non-viability only became available in 2011. There are many states now where my wife would be forced to go through another 7 months of pregnancy and bodily change only to have a late term miscarriage or stillbirth (the most likely result if she did not get that abortion).
Another example is mifepristone, which only became available in the U.S. in 2000 (and 2017 in Canada).
There will be other advances in abortion medicine making the GOP's position even more untenable.
It was not a loss. Thankfully my wife was able to get a legal abortion and we have a daughter who is now alive because of that. Without that legal abortion, we would never have tried to have another child again.
On the off chance this was intended to show sympathy rather than to troll, please delete it. It's clearly unwelcome. If it stays up, we know what you're about for sure now.
Some people do experience a miscarriage or otherwise a loss of a wanted fetus as a loss. You wanted the fetus until it was discovered to be unviable. However, I thought "sorry for your loss" was odd in this context, too.
Thanks for the heads up on information regarding medical science as it relates to abortion.
It really boils down to how politically any viable political party can be as it relates to empowering women to be able to make their own choices. Since it's obvious the GOP is being hypocritical here regarding its intention of getting the government out of people's lives as much as possible, exposing its hypocrisy is a winner for Democratic Candidates.
“Seventeen pornographic film actors on Monday announced that they had launched a $100,000 ad campaign on porn sites warning that Project 2025[...]wants to ban pornography and imprison people who produce it.”
The ads will be run in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
That’s going to put a vast number of MAGA conservatives and White Evangelicals in quite the quandary: Do they want to loudly and publicly denounce porn, or do they prefer being able to continue to privately consume it? As of now, they have been able to combine these two stances.
They may consume it but they don’t want to be seen as being for it. My guess is they’ll square this the way they square every other issue that arises from their desire to vote for Trump conflicting with their other personal desires.
In all honesty, I think there should be regulation on how pornography is distributed where it shouldn't be as easily accessible as it currently is on the internet. That's a complicated issue that I don't know enough of as far as how it would be done legislatively but, in all fairness, the porn industry should be able to profit like any other industries even amid what I'm talking about here.
However, banning it shows Project 2025, like the abortion issue, is making the GOP to be more of the bigger government party than it's claiming to be.
Well he did move to Florida when he left the House. Rogers probably didn't think he'd "move back" to Michigan before Steve Daines came knocking on his door.
NY Times is teasing that it will release Times/Siena polls of the U.S., Florida and Texas this week. Looking forward to new quality polls of those senate races and the Florida initiatives.
I look forward to high-quality polls of the Florida, Texas, Montana and Nebraska Senate races – however, I would argue that the Times/Siena are not quality polls. They consistently continue to be outliers and have some very strange partisan breakdowns and crosstabs.
The fact that their numbers are different from those of other pollsters doesn't prove they're wrong. We'll have to judge that after the election. They're not the only pollster with weird crosstabs, but it's above all the top numbers we need to judge them on.
Ted Cruz raised $21 million in 3Q. Per the campaign, "the total includes money raised by his reelection campaign, political action committee and joint fundraising committee." The story states that Cruz has $16.2 million COH but it is not clear to me if this figure includes the PAC and joint committee groups. (I suspect so.) https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4919924-cruz-posts-21-million-fundraising-haul-in-battle-with-allred/
That's a good poll to see. Jones gaining ground from whenever the last poll was despite the fact that Lawler has been more visible campaign wise. I don't think the blackface thing has a ton of notice yet.
Hard to know how much difference it would make, but if the election is within a point, almost anything could make the difference, though especially turnout.
Got email at 7am this morning from the OC Registrar of Voters that my and Mom's ballot were mailed. 2:30pm got ballot; 2:45pm filled out and signed. Tied standard poodle to wheelchair and rolled to mailbox, deposited at 2:55pm.
Appearing on Salem’s The Hugh Hewitt Show today, Donald Trump went on yet another vile Nazi-like racist and xenophobic rant about immigrants, this time by insinuating that immigrants have brought “bad genes” into the country.
DeSantis and his allies are already spending large sums of taxpayer dollars to fight Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution if voted into law in November. His “election police” have interrogated and intimidated residents who signed petitions to put it on the ballot. His administration created a publicly funded, state-run website condemning the amendment, and has run ads promoting the current law, which bans abortions after six weeks.
Now, however, DeSantis is escalating the battle: On Oct. 3, his Department of Health sent a letter to at least one local NBC affiliate suggesting that prosecutors could bring criminal charges against the TV station for airing ads that encourage residents to vote for the amendment. The letter, first reported by investigative journalist Jason Garcia, asserted that the ads violate Florida’s “sanitary nuisance” law and that stations may commit a second-degree misdemeanor by carrying them, subjecting their employees to a 60-day jail sentence.
The Florida Department of Health’s allegations are absurd on several levels. The agency claims that the advertisement in question is “false” and “dangerous” because it informs viewers that the state’s six-week ban imperils the life and health of pregnant women. But it is demonstrably true that Florida’s ban jeopardizes the well-being of women. Moreover, even if the ad exaggerated these harms—indeed, even if it were arguably false—it would still receive bulletproof First Amendment protections. And TV stations would have an insurmountable constitutional shield against any punishment for airing it.
"Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have gained momentum in a race for the White House that remains neck and neck in Michigan with a month until Election Day, according to a new poll from The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4).
The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters, conducted Oct. 1-4, found Harris to have a 2.6 percentage point lead over Republican former President Donald Trump. Among the participants, 46.8% said they would vote for Harris, 44.2% said they would pick Trump, 8.3% said they would support another candidate and 0.7% were undecided.[...]
In the most recent similar poll from The News and WDIV-TV, conducted in late August, Trump was beating Harris by 1.2 percentage points, 44.7%-43.5%."
The margin of error is 4%, but there's still a clear trend in this poll, for whatever that's worth.
Here’s a truly excellent analysis of the opportunities in Nebraska, with focus on the Senate race between Independent Dan Sanborn and Republican incumbent Debbie Fischer. Prof. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium take a "moneyball" approach, with comparisons between various Senate races, examining where money and effort (not the same) would have the most impact. Fascinating reading.
https://samwang.substack.com/p/nebraska-rising
Auto-correction can be insufferable. Happens to the best of us. :)
I’ve deleted my response.
Meant he is not a good guide of prognostication. My phone seems to think that is not a word?
Still Montana, the fall back might be Texas. He read too much into the polls.
His aim here is not prediction, but rather to suggest optimal use of resources: effort and money.
I agree with you about Texas and suggest adding Deb Mucarsel-Powell in Florida as another fallback. I think she will beat Rick Scott. And I do think Dan Osborn in Nebraska is a good longshot that’s well worth investing in.
https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/07/justices-rebuff-pennsylvania-gop-voter-registration-appeal/
“The Supreme Court turned away a challenge to President Joe Biden’s three-year-old voter-registration initiative."
https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/07/supreme-court-lets-texas-bar-emergency-abortions/
A reminder that the overturning of Roe v Wade will -never- become old news as long as it is not undone, and guys who think it will go out of women's minds are doing so only because their lack of uteruses enable -them- to pretend it's no longer a current event.
It will actually get much worse for Republicans for two reasons.
1) It takes roughly two years for state medical boards to review deaths to determine if they could have been avoided. For instance, the ProPublica account of the two women in Georgia who are known to have died due to Roe being overturned died a few months after the Dobbs decision. There will be many more deaths that come to light in the years to come.
2) Scientific and medical improvements will make abortion even more useful to women with health problems or who have fetuses who are not viable.
As an example, my wife had and abortion in 2016 due to the fetus having Edwards Syndrome; the test which showed that fetal non-viability only became available in 2011. There are many states now where my wife would be forced to go through another 7 months of pregnancy and bodily change only to have a late term miscarriage or stillbirth (the most likely result if she did not get that abortion).
Another example is mifepristone, which only became available in the U.S. in 2000 (and 2017 in Canada).
There will be other advances in abortion medicine making the GOP's position even more untenable.
Sorry for your loss
It was not a loss. Thankfully my wife was able to get a legal abortion and we have a daughter who is now alive because of that. Without that legal abortion, we would never have tried to have another child again.
You continue to act like a troll, which is not needed here. Please stop while you are ahead.
On the off chance this was intended to show sympathy rather than to troll, please delete it. It's clearly unwelcome. If it stays up, we know what you're about for sure now.
It was an attempt at showing empathy. How do I delete a comment?
Some people do experience a miscarriage or otherwise a loss of a wanted fetus as a loss. You wanted the fetus until it was discovered to be unviable. However, I thought "sorry for your loss" was odd in this context, too.
Please do not tell me how I should feel.
Also, this person has acted like a troll before, especially in their comments regarding the pandemic. Quite frankly, I don't need their comments.
I don't understand your reaction to my remark.
Thanks for the heads up on information regarding medical science as it relates to abortion.
It really boils down to how politically any viable political party can be as it relates to empowering women to be able to make their own choices. Since it's obvious the GOP is being hypocritical here regarding its intention of getting the government out of people's lives as much as possible, exposing its hypocrisy is a winner for Democratic Candidates.
https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/07/porn-stars-jump-into-the-presidential-campaign/
Very smart:
“Seventeen pornographic film actors on Monday announced that they had launched a $100,000 ad campaign on porn sites warning that Project 2025[...]wants to ban pornography and imprison people who produce it.”
The ads will be run in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
That’s going to put a vast number of MAGA conservatives and White Evangelicals in quite the quandary: Do they want to loudly and publicly denounce porn, or do they prefer being able to continue to privately consume it? As of now, they have been able to combine these two stances.
They may consume it but they don’t want to be seen as being for it. My guess is they’ll square this the way they square every other issue that arises from their desire to vote for Trump conflicting with their other personal desires.
Fortunately for them, votes are secret.
In all honesty, I think there should be regulation on how pornography is distributed where it shouldn't be as easily accessible as it currently is on the internet. That's a complicated issue that I don't know enough of as far as how it would be done legislatively but, in all fairness, the porn industry should be able to profit like any other industries even amid what I'm talking about here.
However, banning it shows Project 2025, like the abortion issue, is making the GOP to be more of the bigger government party than it's claiming to be.
As to production, most porn is produced in the San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles, a quite Democratic leaning area.
https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/07/mike-rogers-dogged-by-residency-questions/
Including whether he really lives in Michigan and has broken the law by claiming he does.
Well he did move to Florida when he left the House. Rogers probably didn't think he'd "move back" to Michigan before Steve Daines came knocking on his door.
NY Times is teasing that it will release Times/Siena polls of the U.S., Florida and Texas this week. Looking forward to new quality polls of those senate races and the Florida initiatives.
I look forward to high-quality polls of the Florida, Texas, Montana and Nebraska Senate races – however, I would argue that the Times/Siena are not quality polls. They consistently continue to be outliers and have some very strange partisan breakdowns and crosstabs.
The fact that their numbers are different from those of other pollsters doesn't prove they're wrong. We'll have to judge that after the election. They're not the only pollster with weird crosstabs, but it's above all the top numbers we need to judge them on.
Ted Cruz raised $21 million in 3Q. Per the campaign, "the total includes money raised by his reelection campaign, political action committee and joint fundraising committee." The story states that Cruz has $16.2 million COH but it is not clear to me if this figure includes the PAC and joint committee groups. (I suspect so.) https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4919924-cruz-posts-21-million-fundraising-haul-in-battle-with-allred/
I’m angry CO-5 got so little interest this cycle. El Paso County is trending blue. I feel the same way about Douglas County, CO.
Emerson NY 17 and 18 polls https://x.com/jakesherman/status/1843398127966953793?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
That's a good poll to see. Jones gaining ground from whenever the last poll was despite the fact that Lawler has been more visible campaign wise. I don't think the blackface thing has a ton of notice yet.
Hard to know how much difference it would make, but if the election is within a point, almost anything could make the difference, though especially turnout.
Lawler 45-44 over Jones and Ryan 48-43 over Esposito.
Got email at 7am this morning from the OC Registrar of Voters that my and Mom's ballot were mailed. 2:30pm got ballot; 2:45pm filled out and signed. Tied standard poodle to wheelchair and rolled to mailbox, deposited at 2:55pm.
Voting done.
Impressive efficiency!
VA CNU poll: Harris 52-41.
https://mcusercontent.com/0a86688a0d7c707f9159df222/files/b7697019-6a4e-1436-e08e-1d32090d6a9f/WasonOct7Survey24.pdf
Appearing on Salem’s The Hugh Hewitt Show today, Donald Trump went on yet another vile Nazi-like racist and xenophobic rant about immigrants, this time by insinuating that immigrants have brought “bad genes” into the country.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-immigrants-bad-genes_n_67040a34e4b0924ce9db0b0e
Disgusting. And of course the media just shrugs it off.
NM2 poll Vazquez by 9. https://x.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1843437167164723220
That's a great result! That's over former Republican Congresswoman Herrell.
But I thought all the Hispanic voters had turned MAGA?
Careful, there’s a lot of broken sarcasm detectors.
This guy's chutzpah seems to know no limits!
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/10/florida-amendment-4-ron-desantis-administration-prosecute-media-airing-pro-choice-ads.html
All of this is a quote:
DeSantis and his allies are already spending large sums of taxpayer dollars to fight Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution if voted into law in November. His “election police” have interrogated and intimidated residents who signed petitions to put it on the ballot. His administration created a publicly funded, state-run website condemning the amendment, and has run ads promoting the current law, which bans abortions after six weeks.
Now, however, DeSantis is escalating the battle: On Oct. 3, his Department of Health sent a letter to at least one local NBC affiliate suggesting that prosecutors could bring criminal charges against the TV station for airing ads that encourage residents to vote for the amendment. The letter, first reported by investigative journalist Jason Garcia, asserted that the ads violate Florida’s “sanitary nuisance” law and that stations may commit a second-degree misdemeanor by carrying them, subjecting their employees to a 60-day jail sentence.
The Florida Department of Health’s allegations are absurd on several levels. The agency claims that the advertisement in question is “false” and “dangerous” because it informs viewers that the state’s six-week ban imperils the life and health of pregnant women. But it is demonstrably true that Florida’s ban jeopardizes the well-being of women. Moreover, even if the ad exaggerated these harms—indeed, even if it were arguably false—it would still receive bulletproof First Amendment protections. And TV stations would have an insurmountable constitutional shield against any punishment for airing it.
Party of Free speech!
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/10/07/kamala-harris-donald-trump-michigan-poll-slight-lead-presidential-race-white-house-rfk-kennedy/75552929007/
"Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have gained momentum in a race for the White House that remains neck and neck in Michigan with a month until Election Day, according to a new poll from The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4).
The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters, conducted Oct. 1-4, found Harris to have a 2.6 percentage point lead over Republican former President Donald Trump. Among the participants, 46.8% said they would vote for Harris, 44.2% said they would pick Trump, 8.3% said they would support another candidate and 0.7% were undecided.[...]
In the most recent similar poll from The News and WDIV-TV, conducted in late August, Trump was beating Harris by 1.2 percentage points, 44.7%-43.5%."
The margin of error is 4%, but there's still a clear trend in this poll, for whatever that's worth.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2024/10/07/poll-shows-double-digit-leads-for-levin-harris-in-49th-congressional-district/ Late night drop out here in SD. I believe Harris is doing 2 points better than Biden did in 2020 and Levin is doing 7 points better than he did in 2022.