Morning Digest: DC Republicans are now spending to help protect Ted Cruz

It's a tea leaf that Texas might be competitive, but no one's brewing a full pot just yet

A Republican ad that kinda compares Ted Cruz to Texas toast, for some reason (credit: NRSC ad screenshot)

Leading Off

TX-Sen

As Democrats fight to retain their narrow Senate majority despite a very difficult map, they're seeing some hints that they might be able to expand the playing field to Texas―a state where Democrats are hoping to finally achieve their long-dreamed breakthrough.

Republicans, at least, aren't discounting the possibility: For the first time, the Senate GOP's official campaign arm has begun spending to boost incumbent Ted Cruz. The same day that the National Republican Senatorial Committee's new advertising push began, an environmental advocacy group released a survey showing Cruz 4 points ahead of his Democratic opponent, Rep. Colin Allred.

The NRSC's initial foray is relatively small so far: AdImpact reports the committee is spending $2.8 million on an ad buy made in coordination with the Cruz campaign—the maximum allowed by law. (Third-party groups can spend unlimited sums to boost candidates, but only if they act independently.) The GOP's first spot attacks Allred on immigration, a favorite topic for Republicans, though it also seems to compare Cruz to the buttery garlic bread favored in the Lone Star State known as Texas toast.

For a giant-sized state like Texas, the sums are relatively small, but they raise the possibility that the NRSC or well-funded allies might soon feel compelled to do so more—and that Democrats could follow suit.

Cruz's own activity, at least, will soon ramp up: According to AdImpact, he's been outspent on the airwaves almost 10-to-1 by Allred, who first went up on TV in May and has dropped more than $23 million so far. (A representative new ad from Allred hammers the incumbent for wanting to raise the retirement age for Social Security while also jabbing Cruz for his infamous sojourn to Cancun.)

But future ad reservations from Cruz and his various backers total more than $13 million, while Allred, who has been on his own, has less than $1 million in TV booked.

That figure, though, is sure to increase soon, especially if polling continues to show a tight race, as Tuesday's survey from Clean and Prosperous America did. That poll, conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, finds Cruz up by 44-40 on Allred, with Libertarian Ted Brown taking 4%. Without Brown in the mix, Cruz would be ahead by a narrower 47-45 margin (in Cruz's last race, the Libertarian candidate took less than 1% of the vote).

Those spreads are similar to those in the presidential race, where Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in a multi-way matchup that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who takes 6%. (Kennedy withdrew his name from the Texas ballot a few days after this poll was in the field.) In a head-to-head, Trump is up 49-44.

PPP's findings are also in line with those of the only other poll released by an established firm since the unprecedented shakeup at the top of the Democratic ticket late last month. That survey, conducted by YouGov for a pair of Texas universities, put Cruz in front 47-45 and Trump ahead 50-45, including third-party candidates in both cases.

So will the NRSC's Democratic counterpart also seek to play in Texas? Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer recently suggested to reporters that such a move was unlikely, but in the same breath, he teased that the DSCC's allied super PAC, the deep-pocketed Senate Majority PAC, might engage.

According to Punchbowl's Andrew Desiderio, "Schumer said he thinks Democrats will be competitive" in Texas (and in Florida) because SMP has the ability to get involved, telling reporters that "we outraise the Republicans in our super PAC all the time." Indeed, SMP had raised $164 million this cycle as of the end of June while its opposite number on the GOP side, the Senate Leadership Fund, had brought in a much smaller $124 million.

Money alone cannot make an election competitive, as wise election observers well know (and as many self-funders have insisted on discovering the hard way). But the flow of cash can tell you which races those with access to private data think will be competitive. And with cash now flowing to Texas, that makes this race worth watching.

Senate

FL-Sen

Clean and Prosperous America, the same environmental group that released the poll of Texas discussed in our TX-Sen item above, also put out a Florida poll on Tuesday with similarly competitive results.

The Florida survey, also conducted by Public Policy Polling, gives Republican Sen. Rick Scott a small 46-43 advantage over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, with another 2% favoring Libertarian Feena Bonoan. Respondents also favor Donald Trump 51-47 in a head-to-head matchup against Kamala Harris.

The only independent poll we've seen lately of the Sunshine State's Senate race this month came from the Canadian firm Mainstreet Research on behalf of Florida Atlantic University. It found Scott ahead by a similar 47-43 spread, with Trump leading Harris 49-46.

Numbers from the GOP firm McLaughlin & Associates for the Associated Industries of Florida, which backs Scott, gave the incumbent a stronger 52-42 edge earlier this month. But as seasoned election-watchers know, McLaughlin is a company that, as Cameron Joseph wrote in Vice in 2019, has a reputation for telling "clients what they want to hear rather than what they need to hear."

Most infamously, McLaughlin showed then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor with a huge lead just before he lost his 2014 primary to challenger Dave Brat in Virginia. But while that failure wasn't the first or last major whiff for McLaughlin, it still had further to fall.

The firm's principal, John McLaughlin, spread conspiracy theories on the night of the Georgia Senate runoffs in early 2021 when, pointing to heavily Democratic DeKalb County, he wondered aloud, "Are they deciding how many votes the Democrats need to win?" McLaughlin later that night grimaced, "The big dump came." Needless to say, no such thing happened.

But while we have plenty of reasons to distrust any data a conspiracy theorist like McLaughlin puts out, that doesn't mean Scott is on the brink of defeat. Democrats are well aware that it would take a great deal of money to seriously threaten the senator, who is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, especially since Florida is a massive state that Trump is still favored to win.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer acknowledged that reality last week in remarks to reporters even as he predicted the Senate race would be "a lot closer than people think." It therefore remains to be seen whether Democratic outside groups will spend a serious amount of money in a cycle where they have so many vulnerable incumbents to defend.

MD-Sen

The AARP has released a new poll showing Democrat Angela Alsobrooks deadlocked 46-46 against Republican Larry Hogan in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin in Maryland. 

This survey, which was conducted jointly by the Democratic firm Impact Research and the Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward, is the first we've seen of this contest in more than two months. That last survey, conducted in June by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, showed Alsobrooks, who serves as Prince George's County executive, defeating the former governor 45-34.

The AARP's poll, though, underscores just how much Hogan would need to run ahead of the top of the ticket in order to become Maryland's first Republican senator since the late Charles Mathias retired in 1987. It finds Kamala Harris―who wasn't even the party's nominee when PPP fielded its survey―defeating Donald Trump 59-29 when third-party candidates are included. (Robert F. Kennedy, who took 5%, will stay on the state's ballot.) In a head-to-head battle, Harris prevails by a similar 64-32 margin.

House

MT-01

In what may be a first for a political campaign ad, Montana Democrat Monica Tranel has filmed a spot in an Airbnb rental owned by Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke to make her case that her opponent is making the state's housing shortage worse.

"[H]e's buying up properties across Montana and jacking up the rent," Tranel says as she tours the home, including a bedroom with a cartoon of a dog decked in glasses, a hat, and a colorful shirt. "$16,000 a month for this place. Housing profiteers like Ryan Zinke are the reason it's so expensive to live here."

Tranel is seeking a rematch against Zinke two years after he defeated her 50-47 in the race for Montana's 1st District, a seat based in the western half of the state. That contest took place just after Montana went from having just one congressional district to two thanks to population growth. According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump would have carried what's now the 1st District by a larger 52-45 spread.

But while Zinke had represented the entire state in the House in the two years before he resigned in 2017 to become Donald Trump's first interior secretary, he returned home with many new vulnerabilities.

Tranel gained traction by highlighting Zinke's many corruption-related scandals during his time in the cabinet, which ultimately led to his resignation in 2019. While they weren't quite enough to drag Zinke down last cycle, Tranel is once again highlighting them in her new spot.

"As interior secretary, Zinke tried to cash in by selling off Montana's land to international developers," Tranel says as she's shown inspecting a rocking horse in another bedroom.

Republicans hope that Tranel's criticisms will all be old news in 2024, especially now that Zinke once again has the benefit of incumbency. But Tranel's allies at House Majority PAC think he's still beatable: HMP, a top Democratic super PAC, has reserved $4.5 million in ad time in the 1st District, while major GOP outside groups have yet to book any.

And while Trump will almost certainly carry Montana again this year, Tranel may still get some help from further up the ballot. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester needs to decisively win the 1st District in order to have any chance to offset what will be a strong GOP showing in the more conservative 2nd District, which is based in the eastern half of the state.

Tester, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, did just that in 2018 when he carried the region that would later become the 1st District by a 54-45 margin while losing the future 2nd District 50-46. That split performance allowed him to prevail 50-47 statewide, a feat he's hoping to pull off once again this year.

NJ-09

Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter announced Tuesday that she was ending her brief campaign to succeed the late Rep. Bill Pascrell, a move that came one day after state Sen. Nellie Pou earned endorsements from all three county Democratic Party chairs in New Jersey's 9th District. Assemblyman Benjie Wimberly is now the only remaining notable candidate still opposing Pou ahead of Thursday's party gathering, at which local committee members will pick a new nominee for this reliably blue seat.

VA-07

Republican Derrick Anderson has released an early August internal poll from Ragnar Research that shows him trailing Democrat Eugene Vindman by a slim 42-41 margin in Virginia's 7th District, an open seat in Northern Virginia. ABC 7, which first reported the survey, did not mention any numbers testing Kamala Harris against Donald Trump. This seat is held by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is leaving Congress in order to focus on her 2025 run for governor. 

This is the first poll we've seen of the contest between Vindman, the former National Security Council adviser who played a key role in the investigation that helped lead to Donald Trump's first impeachment in 2019, and Anderson, an attorney and Army veteran who served in Afghanistan and Iraq. Joe Biden carried the 7th District by a 53-46 margin in 2020, but, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, Republican Glenn Youngkin took it 52-47 in the following year's race for governor.

Ballot Measures

FL Ballot

Clean and Prosperous America PAC's Florida poll from Public Policy Polling also finds a 61-25 majority in favor of Amendment 4, which would guarantee the right to an abortion until fetal viability. This is the best result we've seen recently for Amendment 4, which, like all proposed constitutional amendments in the Sunshine State, needs to win at least 60% of the vote in order to go into effect. Two polls conducted earlier this month by Mainstreet Research and Suffolk University respectively had the "yes" side ahead 56-21 and 58-35.

PPP additionally finds a 57-34 majority in favor of Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana. Mainstreet placed "yes" ahead 56-29—also a few points short of the requisite 60%—while Suffolk showed it passing 63-33.

Ad Roundup

• MI-Sen: Elissa Slotkin (D) - anti-Mike Rogers (R)

• MT-Sen: One Nation - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)

• NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich (D-inc) - anti-Nella Domenici (R)

• PA-Sen: One Nation - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)

• TX-Sen: Saving Texas - anti-Colin Allred (D) ($780,000 buy)

• WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) - anti-Eric Hovde (R)

• CA-41: Will Rollins (D)

• CT-05: Jahana Hayes (D-inc)

• NM-02: Gabe Vasquez (D-inc)

• NY-04: Laura Gillen (D)

• NY-19: Josh Riley (D) - anti-Marc Molinaro (R-inc); Riley

• NY-22: John Mannion (D)

• TX-15: Michelle Vallejo (D) - anti-Monica De La Cruz (R-inc)