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RemovedNov 4
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CA47 (Katie Porter’s seat she gave up to run for Senate is probably in trouble.). The Democrats has a DUI that the Republlican is attacking and it will probably be a R+1 or R+2 district. Min can still win

https://x.com/VanceUlrich/status/1853326886564184222

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deletedNov 4
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Thanks for your activism

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Today, The Washington Post published and article that claimed both sides were voting out of fear. I just posted this rebuttal:

"The Washington Post gets it wrong. Hannah Knowles, and Jeff Bezos in his cowardly silencing of his newspaper’s Editorial Board, our primary driver is not Fear – or at least it need not be.

"Actually, tens of millions of Americans are voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz out of Hope and Love! We have a profound love for this country, for its Constitution, for the country’s possibility and its yet-to-be-fulfilled promise.

"We have a deep Hope in the goodness of our joint humanity, in the brighter future based on the enabling of each others’ diversity and opportunities – and not some misconstrued idea that America should be a "Zero-Sum Game".

"Wise men and women have said that the 2016 Election was a "National Referendum on Decency" – and that Decency lost.

"In 2024, we are voting in a new Referendum – to restore Decency.

"For Love of country and for each other, and for Love of the beautiful principles and hopes on which this Country was founded, for ourselves and each other, for our children and grandchildren and future generations, and for all the living creatures of this Earth, we are voting for a New Way Forward."

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And here is the title and intro, and a link to WaPo’s article:

. "Trump vs. Harris divides a marriage, a town and America on election eve"

"A sharply split nation is headed to the polls to elect its 47th president after an unprecedented campaign. Voters on both sides are largely motivated by fear of the other."

https://wapo.st/4hAqfsI

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I posted my prediction for the Presidential Election last night. Harris wins GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, NV while Trump wins AZ. Harris 308, Trump 230. https://www.270towin.com/maps/lZgv2

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My fantasy: Harris wins GA and NC before PA is done counting.

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My dream scenario: North Carolina and Florida called early for Kamala Harris.

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Florida seems like a bridge too far. But I suppose a guy can dream!

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Would be great but I’ll settle for FL being “Too Close to Call” through the evening. Trump winning it early wouldn’t be an assured loss for Harris, but it wouldn’t be good, and it would point to 2022 FL results being the new norm. I think there’s reason to believe FL is still competitive but R leaning so if NYT has their needle and it hovers below 55% chance of Trump winning throughout the night I’d be satisfied.

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I'm in Florida, I'd love the too close to call until like midnight(that would be good news for John McCain !)

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I think that's where I am, too. 2020 but swap AZ and NC.

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This is exactly where I am. I think AZ will be closest state and it will be to the right of NC (if just barely)

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Trump's margin in AZ > Harris's margin in NC > Obama's 2008 margin in NC

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Here are my final predictions:

AL: T+26

AK: T+7

AZ: H+0

AR: T+28

CA: H+28

CO: H+15

CT: H+21

DE: H+17

DC: H+87

FL: T+7

GA: H+1

HI: H+28

ID: T+33

IL: H+18

IN: T+15

IA: T+6

KS: T+12

KY: T+26

LA: T+20

ME: H+11

MD: H+32

MA: H+34

MI: H+5

MN: H+8

MS: T+17

MO: T+14

MT: T+15

NE: T+17

NV: H+1

NH: H+8

NJ: H+15

NM: H+11

NY: H+21

NC: H+0

ND: T+34

OH: T+8

OK: T+32

OR: H+17

PA: H+3

RI: H+21

SC: T+12

SD: T+27

TN: T+23

TX: T+4

UT: T+22

VT: H+37

VA: H+10

WA: H+20

WV: T+38

WI: H+2

WY: T+44

As you can tell, I'm not expecting a huge amount of change from 2020. But I do think that Harris will win the closest states, the same way that Biden did.

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So you think Selzer ends up being almost 10 pts off from the actual margin for the first time ever?

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Like I've said before, polls constitute only 30% of my predictions. And one individual poll is even less than that, even from someone like Selzer.

If not for her poll, I would've predicted T+8. A two-point shift in my predictions based on just one poll is quite a lot.

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Those look pretty close to mine, although I don't have Selzer whiffing by that much.

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Trump and Harris are tied in Trafalgar's final MI poll, which means Trump is polling worse in their polling than Tudor Dixon was 2 years ago. I don't think we'll see a double digit polling miss from them again (although Harris winning Michigan by 10-11 fits with winning Iowa by 3), but rather that its another example of just how much herding there is going on. If even the shitty rightwing pollsters are herding then very few (shoutout to Ann) seem immune to it.

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Herding and Trafalgar don’t appear together. The former is a description of pollsters.

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Does Trafalgar really conduct polls? /s

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That /s doesn’t seem to be necessary.

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I have no doubt Robert Cahaly calls people, ergo "conduct polls", but he just massages the numbers to whatever it takes to show Republicans ahead.

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Nov 4·edited Nov 4

I feel a little cheap waiting till Election Eve to make a prediction, but am thinking Harris wins 286-252. Was actually feeling somewhat pessimistic until recently. The MSG rally seems to have marked a momentum shift, though, and surveys from top-tier pollsters suggest a Harris win. Ranking the seven battlegrounds from best for Harris to worst:

Michigan (H +3.5): Recent elections have established the Democratic baseline to be higher here than other swing states. Harris will likely build on Biden's margins in blue anchor counties (Wayne, Oakland, Washtenaw, Ingham, and Kalamazoo) while closing the gap in vote-rich Republican counties like Ottawa and Livingston. I think I read that Detroit City officials also expect higher turnout than 2020, which would be huge. These factors combined should more than balance against any rightward shift among rural counties.

Pennsylvania (H +2.5): The trends in Michigan also apply here, with Harris poised to outperform Biden in Allegheny and the Philly collar counties, while winning gains in the GOP's south central strongholds (Lancaster, York, and Cumberland). District-level polling also shows Harris holding steady in the Lehigh Valley, which was one of the few areas where conventional wisdom suggested weakness relative to Biden. My main worry is whether she can hold steady in Philly, where Biden performed worse than any Dem nominee since John Kerry. Hispanic neighborhoods in North Philly pushed the city right in 2020; hopefully the MSG rally will rekindle awareness of Trump's racism and halt or reverse any further movement. Would be great if we can at least replicate Philly's 470,000 vote margin from four years ago.

Georgia (H +1): Georgia could emerge as the surprise tipping point state this year. 2022 suggested Atlanta Metro has shifted even further left since 2020, along with Republican Metro counties including Forsyth, Cherokee, Fayette, and Paulding. Fayette should flip blue tomorrow if trends hold steady. Harris should also crack 60% in vote-rich Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry, with the latter in particular primed for big movement. This should more than balance against any further erosion in the rurals. One potential concern is turnout in Dem-leaning outer-state counties like Chatham, Richmond, and Bibb, all of which underperformed in early voting relative to the Metro. They'll all need to catch up tomorrow for Harris to feel better.

Wisconsin (H +0.7): Wisconsin could easily swap places with Georgia, but I wouldn't be surprised if it says true to form with a <1% margin for the winner. Harris should push 80% in Dane and could very well become the first Dem to exceed 70% in Milwaukee as its suburbs shift left. She should be in solid shape as long as trends in Waukesha and Ozaukee hold steady. The relatively exurban Washington remains stubbornly crimson.

Nevada (T +0.5): Honestly not feeling good about our chances here. If the Republican EV lead was the only sore point, I'd feel better given the surge in left-leaning NPAs. That said, the trends and fundamentals are arguably worse for us here than any other battleground. The state's shifted right relative to the rest of America every cycle since 2008, and we don't have a strong core of Black voters or emerging core of educated suburbanites to fall back on. Nevada's also extremely sensitive to economic volatility, so we could see more residual angst over inflation and the COVID recession compared to other battlegrounds.

North Carolina (T +1): I don't have as strong an understanding of North Carolina, so I have less to work with here. But they've very reliably stuck with their Lucy-and-the-football routine since 2008, so wouldn't be surprised if that continues this year, too. Mecklenburg needs to properly turn out for us to have a chance. I'll be happy if we can hold NC-01 and Attorney General.

Arizona (T +1.5): As with NC, I don't have a strong grasp of on-the-ground developments, but Arizona appears to be the lone swing state where migration patterns have worked against us, along with potential greater sensitivity to developments at the border. The polling, to the extent it can be trusted, is also worse here than the other battlegrounds. Here's hoping strength with Latinos and gains in the Phoenix suburbs come through for us.

The obvious qualification to all of this is that we're flying blind compared to previous cycles. Either candidate could sweep all seven states, or (god forbid) we could get a 2000 redux where the tipping point state hinges on a handful of ballots. If Harris wins, we'll likely see unprecedented strength among women voters and a massacre in the suburbs. If Trump wins, the narrative could emphasize some combination of gains among POCs, expansion of rural/WWC margins, and lesser turnout in cities. We'll get our answers in 48 hours!

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I still am puzzled and now even more so how AZ would go big for Ruben, and close t win with abortion rights also on the ballot. Seems something is not computing and based on Selzer poll, seems one of those results is not the same as the other two.

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Kari Lake is just that bad of a candidate.

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She's as whiny, abrasive, and extreme as Trump but lacks his bad-boy appeal and undeserved reputation as a great businessman.

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Final

@YouGovAmerica

/

@thetimes

poll:

WISCONSIN

Harris 51% (+4)

Trump 47%

.

MICHIGAN

Harris 50% (+3)

Trump 47%

.

PENNSYLVANIA

Harris 51% (+3)

Trump 48%

.

NEVADA

Harris 50% (+1)

Trump 49%

.

ARIZONA

Trump 50% (+1)

Harris 49%

.

NORTH CAROLINA

Trump 50% (+1)

Harris 49%

.

GEORGIA

Trump 50% (+2)

Harris 48%

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I'll make a run at the predictions:

National: H+7

NE-02: H+9

WI: H+5

MI: H+4

PA: H+2

GA: H+2

NV: H+1

NC: H+1

AZ: H+0

Dems take the House, hold the Senate (Brown & Tester both win, but not Allred or Osborn or DMP).

After Selzer, I want to get to outright Dem landslide, but I cannot quite get there. I will say, I think more landslide-ish is more likely than closer than I predicted.

What would that like? Larger House margin (D+10 or more), more Senate upsets (Allred, DMP, Osborn, Kunce), and some of FL, TX, IA, & OH taking longer to call than some of the 7 swings.

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Why not so I can be embarrassed later hah.

National: H+5

NE-02: H+9

MI: H+4

PA: H+3

WI: H + 2

GA: H + 2

NV: H + 1

NC: H<1

AZ: H<1

I think in the end the Sunbelt could go either way but if I have to call it I think if Harris wins the rustbelt which I think means she will narrowly she is more likely to win all four than lose them.

Dems take the House (D + 12), Senate 51-49 R. (MT/WV flip R). I'm really unsure on Ohio though but for the sake of optimism will say Brown finds a way to eek it out on the strength of the three Cs and not getting blown out in northern Ohio. Texas I feel like the ceiling is still too low for Dems. NE I think Fischer wins by at least 5 but hope to be wrong on that.

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Nov 4·edited Nov 4

The last couple of weeks I've been "cautiously not pessimistic" and now I've switched over to "cautiously optimistic".

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Agreed. Also Trump's closing seems even worse than expected. That's diffito assess given so many have already voted but itcan't help Trump's outcome certainly.

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His health policy is clearly a winner: repeal Obamacare taking away healthcare insurance for tens of millions; put the vaccine skeptic RFK Jr in charge and bring back Polio and other diseases; and, inspired by the conspiracy theories in "Dr Strangelove", remove Fluoride from American drinking water.

Healthcare professionals and American voters are applauding!

/s

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My final 2024 Election Predictions are out: [reposted from the Saturday Night post]

Kamala Harris (D) highly favored to win the Presidential election, with a 319-219 forecast in the no tossups version and 247-219 in the tossups included version.

Democrats favored to flip the House, with them getting a 227-208 majority in the no tossups version.

Republicans favored to flip the Senate, with them getting a 51-49 majority in the no tossups version.

Democrats will flip NH-Gov in the no tossups model.

https://jgibsondem.substack.com/p/my-final-2024-election-projections

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Why do you think Ayotte will lose in NH?

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Monday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.

2,801 new requests, R+532. Final request advantage now down to D+485,179

101,768 ballot returns, D+15,848. Overall ballot advantage now D+409,904. Original Firewall has been hit.

Total Requests (FINAL?):

D - 1,200,466 (54.62%)

R - 715,287 (32.54%)

O - 282,162 (12.84%)

Total - 2,197,915

Total Returns:

D - 997,450 (83.09% return rate)

R - 587,546 (82.14%)

O - 205,323 (72.77%)

Total - 1,790,319

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deletedNov 4
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I've got nothing.

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Are the new requests from Bucks county because of the extension that was requested?

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About 45% were. Some counties are lagging behind.

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So just delays in reporting.

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407.6k Oustanding Ballots: 42.6k from Philly Democrats, 18.4k from MontCo Dems, 24.85k from Allegheny Dems

PA is just shy of 26% total turnout.

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I would be most interested to hear your thoughts on:

– No. of Mail Ballots floating in the USPS systems / unprocessed at counties?

– Additional number of Mail Ballots that will be counted?

– Total non-ED Ballot Edge

– Independent early vote split

– Republican early vote crossover for Harris

– Election Day turnout, party composition, vote composition

– Your Pennsylvania prediction

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Mild panic over outstanding ballots. Today's mail could be big. Harris probably wins mail ballots by 505k. 70-30 with Indys sounds right to me. Probably 12-15% GOPers vote Harris, mostly in the Philly suburbs. No turnout expectations. I think my math ended up being Harris by 105k: +465k in Philly, +295k in Philly Suburbs, +180k in Allegheny, -835k in the other 61 counties

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Triple-digit victory sounds good. That ought to be well beyond the margin that allows courts or other shenanigans to mess with it!

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Remember: Biden won by 88k. It was only close during the week because Biden won 76% of the mail vote, most of which were counted last. That won't happen this time. Allegheny will announce their full mail tally at 8:01 pm or when they are all counted, which ever comes last. Philly will announce what they have counted at 8pm at 8pm then count the rest later. PA law now requires counties to report how many mail ballots they have left to count at midnight.

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In short: No Red Mirage in Pennsylvania!

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Correct. It will be a Blue Mirage that will be slowly chipped away as the rural counties come in until it gets near even or a slight GOP lead before Philly & the Philly Suburbs finish up & give Harris the victory.

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Your margin for the Philly suburbs is essentially the same as 2020, but the Allegheny margin's about 30k larger. What could account for the different trajectories?

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What is the source for the 70-30 Indy split? The aviator guy on twitter from the Pittsburgh area (I cannot remember his name).

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Joshua Smithley @blockedfreq

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What was the firewall in 2020?

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There was none. 2020 was the first no-excuse mail-in voting election in PA plus Biden won mail by an obscene amount that if there would have been one, it would have been blown away.

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Do you have a gender split?

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TargetEarly hasn't changed.

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Anyone have a list of the states that have Early In-person Voting today?

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I know for a fact OH does (until 2 pm). NE does.

In terms of mail, all the swings + FL & MT have 11/5 deadlines for receipt except for OH, NV, & TX. If post arked by ED, NV & OH take ED+4, TX ED+1.

Ralston says there are traditionally a significant # of ballots on the day after, much less after that.

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Outside of the all-mail states, I believe it's AK, AR, IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, RI, SD, WY, and a few counties in ND. A few of them are complicated in that the early vote is technically an absentee and their deadline for absentee requests is past.

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California!

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One of the all-mail states, along with CO, HI, NV, OR, UT, VT, and WA, plus DC. All of them still offer some form of in-person voting, some including early in-person.

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In California we all get a ballot in the mail, but there are also in-person "Vote Centers" where you can cast a ballot or just return your completed and signed VbM ballot. There are many Vote Centers in our area. The advantage over old-school precinct voting is that you can vote at any Vote Center in the county; you don't have to go to your precinct polling place.

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Do you have local predictions for us?

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I don't usually do a complete set of predictions or guesses. I think the Dems will do well in the CA House seats. I am not going to do percentages but think we will pick up CA-27, CA-22, and probably CA-13. Farther south I think Young Kim hangs on in CA-40, but I look forward to seeing Will Rollins retire Calvert in CA-41. Derek Tran will be the new congressman in CA-45. I hope Dave Min holds CA-47 for the CDP, but I am not especially confident of that.

The easiest prediction is that Nathan Hochmann defeats L.A. DA George Gascon, probably with more than 60%. My new councilmember will be Adrin Nazarian (CD-02) and I'll go out on a limb by predicting that KDL loses to Ysabel Jurado in CD-14 in a very close race.

Props Pass or Fail: 2 through 5 Pass, 6 Fail, 32 P, 33F, 34 F, 35 P, 36 P.

That is enough for now...

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IL 17

Sorensen up 52-47.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_T5stoxsnPHl3y68xX_yWS2KUkARkTCF/view

I believe this is a Republican polling outfit.

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Someone posted over the weekend that they could believe the Iowa poll because the crazy confrontational things He-Who-Can-Not-Be-Shamed has been saying does not play well in the Upper Midwest.

An anecdote from a completely different context to add to that - I grew up in South Florida, and many Cuban-Americans that I know are unsettled with many of the more “honest” things that Mr. Unhinged has been saying - it reminds them too much of Castro.

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Nov 4·edited Nov 4

Someone mentioned abortion but maybe the thought of reckless tariffs is also playing a role? That or the poll is an outlier.

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Eastern Europeans' and Central/South American's direct experience with socialism/communism is a core driver of voting behavior in those communities. If trump has done anything to even remotely associate himself with those regimes in their minds, (something usually reserved for anything left of center, because of the history) he is utterly dooomed.

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The Supreme Court will hear two cases — consolidated into one — concerning Louisiana’s new congressional map.

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/supreme-court-to-hear-louisiana-redistricting-challenge/

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This about the racial gerrymandering when they could have drawn a neater plurality black district?

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Yes

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