On the eve of their first major vote to advance President Donald Trump’s agenda, key House Republicans are warning Speaker Mike Johnson that they won’t simply rubber-stamp steep cuts across the federal government.
Johnson plans to hold a vote Tuesday on a sweeping budget plan that calls for $2 trillion in cuts over a decade to help pay for tax cuts and new national security spending. But the fate of that measure is uncertain amid rising pressure back home, as Republicans across the country face blowback over the blitz of spending freezes and federal worker firings directed by billionaire Elon Musk.
For now they can only afford a single defection from their caucus in the house, assuming full attendance. That changes in April after the Florida special elections. Once those seats are filled they will be able to afford two defections.
Hopefully their own infighting and fears of the handful of their blue/swing seat house members will stall their agenda indefinitely. I'm not holding my breath.
GERMANY: Yesterday, in the Weekend Open Thread, Januslanitos posted numbers showing the SPD’s decline over time, from 40.9% in 1998 to 16.4% in this year’s snap parliamentary elections, a mere 4.8% higher than the Greens.
Although I don’t have the numbers at hand, also the FDP has suffered a precipitous decline in support and political influence. I am old enough to remember the ever-present Hans-Dietrich Genscher.
Yet the present leader, Christian Lindner, has thrown it all away. First he engineered the fall of Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, in which he was Finance Minister. And then in yesterday’s Bundestag Elections, he failed to win even a single seat for his FDP.
It’s still not entirely clear to me why Lindner chose to bring down the government – and through deceptive means – nor what his conflict with Scholz really was all about.
Germany requires a 5%-threshold for representation in the Bundestag. Yesterday’s election results must be particularly painful and bitter for Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW, a left-populist party. Apparently the final count shows they reached 4.972%.
I wonder whether Wagenknecht feels remorse after splitting with Die Linke, the left-wing party that had an unexpectedly successful election night.
EDIT: BSW needed just 13,000 more votes to make it into the Bundestag. The party is challenging the results.
The Linke feels that they benefited from the split. Less division in the party over immigration and some social issues. Also, BSW took a slice of the AfD vote in the east.
Yes, the absence of the BSW people allowed the remainder of the leadership in Die Linke to make a clear and unified stand against the far-right, which clearly had an appeal for left-wing voters feeling disillusioned with Scholz. The party has been racking up a large number of new memberships in the past few months, and had a coordinated field and social media strategy that paid dividends, esp. in Berlin. If you can use a translator, this article has a nice summary: https://taz.de/Wahlerfolg-der-Linken/!6071319/
Would also encourage people to look up Heidi Reichinnek's speech in the Bundestag for an example.
Based on the election results, it certainly appears that they did. It's a pity that they're such tools of the Russians, because their domestic policy planks are so good.
I don't think that demagogue would feel remorse for trying to self-aggrandize as an authoritarian who broke with Die Linke in order to court xenophobes. She'll run again next time.
Lindner and the FDP were always the third wheel in the coalition, and he'd made it pretty obvious in the 2021 election that his real hope was to coalition with the CDU. Maybe he thought that bringing down the government while Scholz was unpopular would let him pick up enough disaffected SPD voters to join in a CDU-led coalition. Whatever his reasoning, though, he badly misjudged the precarity of his position.
The turnout in yesterday’s German Bundestag elections was 83.5%. That is almost 20% higher than turnout in America’s 2024 Presidential Elections!
Democrats need to massively improve their GOTV efforts in every election going forward – starting with the upcoming special elections, judicial elections and other state-level elections.
American turnout rarely matches the turnout of European countries. Generally, more social solidarity and less cultural disdain for politics and government.
Yes, but Early Voting, whether in-person or vote-by-mail, should more than make up for that. That’s actually a significant elections advantage that the vast majority of American states have over European countries. "Election Day" really is a misnomer; it is merely the *last day* of our elections.
Check out the map in this link. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire were the only states that did not offer some form of Early Voting to all voters.
Ah that's fair. I'm curious if there are any journals out there studying modern election methods across different countries. I'm there are, curious to see what they say
"Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, and Latvia offer early voting to all voters. Iceland, Portugal, Slovenia, Lithuania, Belarus, and Russia offer early voting to some voters.
The IDEA report defined in-country postal voting, for purposes of its dataset, as "those measures that allow a voter to submit their ballot by physical post to the election administration" and noted that "While postal voting is in principle early voting, it differs in that the vote can be physically submitted remotely by the voter themselves." Iceland, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Germany, Poland, Liechtenstein, and Luxembourg offer in-country postal voting to all voters.The Republic of Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Slovenia, and Lithuania offer in-country postal voting to some voters."
There is early voting and postal voting available to all in Australia and other places outside Europe detailed inthe section. One thing that is really helpful too is being able to vote at any polling booth in the country on election day and not being confined to one precinct, which sometimess obviates the need for early voting.
True, but I am not convinced that over one-third of Americans who are registered to vote, are "determined" not to vote.
I would like to see better, more granular data, but I believe a less-than-successful GOTV in November was the key reason for Kamala Harris’ loss. The GOTV just wasn’t strong enough to overcome the other factors working against us. I must admit that I expected it to be the deciding reason for her victory.
What did we donate so much money for if they weren't doing everything that could to turn out voters? Much as I mourn the hard-won $400 I donated to a losing campaign (and a few hundred more to losing Senate campaigns), I don't think a lack of work to turn out voters is what accounted for the margin. People who might otherwise have voted Democratic simply fucked them - and themselves - because inflation sapped their enthusiasm.
I mentioned factors that had to be overcome. You mention the biggie. In addition to people’s own experience of inflation, their perception was heavily influenced by Trump and the Republicans shit-talking the economy ever since Biden was inaugurated. We were fighting an uphill battle, no doubt about it.
I think Democrats underestimated the factor of crime as an issue towards those that voted for Trump. This applies not just as it relates to immigration but also cities like San Francisco that haven't gotten the crime situation under control.
Crime dropped dramatically during Biden’s presidency. Tragically, this was yet another significant achievement that Team Biden failed to successfully communicate to the nation – and which the news media failed to highlight on their own.
Right after being appointed to Elon Musk's DOGE subcommittee, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene bought several thousand dollars worth of Tesla stock. This seems to be a blatant case of conflict of interest and/or insider trading. Does the House Ethics Committee have the integrity to investigate?
I agree with Paleo. Hochul is a non-entity here. From a purely political perspective, I hope she doesn't run, and James does. If Lawler and Hochul are the respective candidates, the race is probably a toss up.
OHIO: Good news! One of America’s least likeable politicians, Vivek Ramaswamy, is now officially running for governor. I think the chance of the Buckeye State being blessed with a Democratic governor just increased markedly.
Based on Vivek Ramaswamy's quote as follows, that's one thing I am going to be in agreement with him on so long as it means OH gets a stronger economy that mirrors what is going on in TX.
On the other hand, I have no idea if he's really just blaboring or if he really has ideas.
"I will lead Ohio to be the top state in the country where patriots across America actually flock to instead of Florida and Texas, I will lead Ohio to be the state of excellence in America," he said."
Just empty Trumpian talk. A single individual won't be able to make Ohio the #1 spot for internal migration in the U.S., reversing decades-long trends.
NC-09: just got a fundraising email from Jasmine Crockett's PAC for a candidate here...Richard Ojeda! Our candidate in WV-03 in 2018 and an unsuccessful candidate for the Democratic nomination in WV-Sen in 2020.
(BTW this is Geoneb, making my first comment since 2021 here)
On the eve of their first major vote to advance President Donald Trump’s agenda, key House Republicans are warning Speaker Mike Johnson that they won’t simply rubber-stamp steep cuts across the federal government.
Johnson plans to hold a vote Tuesday on a sweeping budget plan that calls for $2 trillion in cuts over a decade to help pay for tax cuts and new national security spending. But the fate of that measure is uncertain amid rising pressure back home, as Republicans across the country face blowback over the blitz of spending freezes and federal worker firings directed by billionaire Elon Musk.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/24/politics/spending-cuts-republican-budget?cid=ios_app
We'll see.
For now they can only afford a single defection from their caucus in the house, assuming full attendance. That changes in April after the Florida special elections. Once those seats are filled they will be able to afford two defections.
Hopefully their own infighting and fears of the handful of their blue/swing seat house members will stall their agenda indefinitely. I'm not holding my breath.
GERMANY: Yesterday, in the Weekend Open Thread, Januslanitos posted numbers showing the SPD’s decline over time, from 40.9% in 1998 to 16.4% in this year’s snap parliamentary elections, a mere 4.8% higher than the Greens.
Although I don’t have the numbers at hand, also the FDP has suffered a precipitous decline in support and political influence. I am old enough to remember the ever-present Hans-Dietrich Genscher.
Yet the present leader, Christian Lindner, has thrown it all away. First he engineered the fall of Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, in which he was Finance Minister. And then in yesterday’s Bundestag Elections, he failed to win even a single seat for his FDP.
It’s still not entirely clear to me why Lindner chose to bring down the government – and through deceptive means – nor what his conflict with Scholz really was all about.
Germany requires a 5%-threshold for representation in the Bundestag. Yesterday’s election results must be particularly painful and bitter for Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW, a left-populist party. Apparently the final count shows they reached 4.972%.
I wonder whether Wagenknecht feels remorse after splitting with Die Linke, the left-wing party that had an unexpectedly successful election night.
EDIT: BSW needed just 13,000 more votes to make it into the Bundestag. The party is challenging the results.
The Linke feels that they benefited from the split. Less division in the party over immigration and some social issues. Also, BSW took a slice of the AfD vote in the east.
Yes, the absence of the BSW people allowed the remainder of the leadership in Die Linke to make a clear and unified stand against the far-right, which clearly had an appeal for left-wing voters feeling disillusioned with Scholz. The party has been racking up a large number of new memberships in the past few months, and had a coordinated field and social media strategy that paid dividends, esp. in Berlin. If you can use a translator, this article has a nice summary: https://taz.de/Wahlerfolg-der-Linken/!6071319/
Would also encourage people to look up Heidi Reichinnek's speech in the Bundestag for an example.
Great article, many thanks!
I understand Heidi Reichinnek’s Bundestag speech went viral. Is there an English transcript – or, preferably, a video with English subtitles?
This is the best I've been able to find: https://www.instagram.com/fight_for_a_future/reel/DFgshiUIxQG/
Based on the election results, it certainly appears that they did. It's a pity that they're such tools of the Russians, because their domestic policy planks are so good.
I don't think that demagogue would feel remorse for trying to self-aggrandize as an authoritarian who broke with Die Linke in order to court xenophobes. She'll run again next time.
Lindner and the FDP were always the third wheel in the coalition, and he'd made it pretty obvious in the 2021 election that his real hope was to coalition with the CDU. Maybe he thought that bringing down the government while Scholz was unpopular would let him pick up enough disaffected SPD voters to join in a CDU-led coalition. Whatever his reasoning, though, he badly misjudged the precarity of his position.
GERMANY’s VOTER TURNOUT PUTS AMERICA TO SHAME!
The turnout in yesterday’s German Bundestag elections was 83.5%. That is almost 20% higher than turnout in America’s 2024 Presidential Elections!
Democrats need to massively improve their GOTV efforts in every election going forward – starting with the upcoming special elections, judicial elections and other state-level elections.
American turnout rarely matches the turnout of European countries. Generally, more social solidarity and less cultural disdain for politics and government.
Also doesn't help that American elections are typically on Tuesdays instead of weekends like most European nations.
Yes, but Early Voting, whether in-person or vote-by-mail, should more than make up for that. That’s actually a significant elections advantage that the vast majority of American states have over European countries. "Election Day" really is a misnomer; it is merely the *last day* of our elections.
Check out the map in this link. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire were the only states that did not offer some form of Early Voting to all voters.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/map-early-voting-mail-ballot-states/
Ah that's fair. I'm curious if there are any journals out there studying modern election methods across different countries. I'm there are, curious to see what they say
There is a section in Wikipedia on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_voting
"Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, and Latvia offer early voting to all voters. Iceland, Portugal, Slovenia, Lithuania, Belarus, and Russia offer early voting to some voters.
The IDEA report defined in-country postal voting, for purposes of its dataset, as "those measures that allow a voter to submit their ballot by physical post to the election administration" and noted that "While postal voting is in principle early voting, it differs in that the vote can be physically submitted remotely by the voter themselves." Iceland, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Germany, Poland, Liechtenstein, and Luxembourg offer in-country postal voting to all voters.The Republic of Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Slovenia, and Lithuania offer in-country postal voting to some voters."
There is early voting and postal voting available to all in Australia and other places outside Europe detailed inthe section. One thing that is really helpful too is being able to vote at any polling booth in the country on election day and not being confined to one precinct, which sometimess obviates the need for early voting.
GOTV doesn't work if people are determined not to vote, though.
True, but I am not convinced that over one-third of Americans who are registered to vote, are "determined" not to vote.
I would like to see better, more granular data, but I believe a less-than-successful GOTV in November was the key reason for Kamala Harris’ loss. The GOTV just wasn’t strong enough to overcome the other factors working against us. I must admit that I expected it to be the deciding reason for her victory.
What did we donate so much money for if they weren't doing everything that could to turn out voters? Much as I mourn the hard-won $400 I donated to a losing campaign (and a few hundred more to losing Senate campaigns), I don't think a lack of work to turn out voters is what accounted for the margin. People who might otherwise have voted Democratic simply fucked them - and themselves - because inflation sapped their enthusiasm.
I mentioned factors that had to be overcome. You mention the biggie. In addition to people’s own experience of inflation, their perception was heavily influenced by Trump and the Republicans shit-talking the economy ever since Biden was inaugurated. We were fighting an uphill battle, no doubt about it.
I think Democrats underestimated the factor of crime as an issue towards those that voted for Trump. This applies not just as it relates to immigration but also cities like San Francisco that haven't gotten the crime situation under control.
Crime dropped dramatically during Biden’s presidency. Tragically, this was yet another significant achievement that Team Biden failed to successfully communicate to the nation – and which the news media failed to highlight on their own.
Right after being appointed to Elon Musk's DOGE subcommittee, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene bought several thousand dollars worth of Tesla stock. This seems to be a blatant case of conflict of interest and/or insider trading. Does the House Ethics Committee have the integrity to investigate?
doubt it!
Hopefully Tesla stock collapses and she can ride that dragon right into the ground.
https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/9a0a0a70-3df4-4172-ad41-d116ee596c55
News from my home state:
Our Lt Gov Antonio Delgado will not run for reelection with Hochul in 2026.
He says "all options are on the table" regarding his future.
https://x.com/DelgadoforNY/status/1894130426458833001?t=VcnBmX5IcseSZduzQLj_dw&s=19
What else he got going on?
He's probably planning on running against her in the primary.
Someday New York Governors and their LG's will get along.
Hopefully he and Torres can hash things out since both of them challenging Hochul defeats the purpose
My opinion is that neither one of them is particularly likely to beat Hochul but that Delgado at least has a chance at it. Torres, nah.
Agreed.
Why not? Too socially right-wing for a Democrat?
Hochul should not run. Even in a good Democratic year she’s going to have trouble winning. James should run.
You think that Hochul would have trouble winning the governorship in a good D year (or even a neutral one)??
I agree with Paleo. Hochul is a non-entity here. From a purely political perspective, I hope she doesn't run, and James does. If Lawler and Hochul are the respective candidates, the race is probably a toss up.
OHIO: Good news! One of America’s least likeable politicians, Vivek Ramaswamy, is now officially running for governor. I think the chance of the Buckeye State being blessed with a Democratic governor just increased markedly.
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/24/vivek-ramaswamy-ohio-governor-bid-launch
Based on Vivek Ramaswamy's quote as follows, that's one thing I am going to be in agreement with him on so long as it means OH gets a stronger economy that mirrors what is going on in TX.
On the other hand, I have no idea if he's really just blaboring or if he really has ideas.
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/24/vivek-ramaswamy-ohio-governor-bid-launch
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"I will lead Ohio to be the top state in the country where patriots across America actually flock to instead of Florida and Texas, I will lead Ohio to be the state of excellence in America," he said."
Just empty Trumpian talk. A single individual won't be able to make Ohio the #1 spot for internal migration in the U.S., reversing decades-long trends.
Yeah, figured as much.
Mike DeWine would be hard for a Democratic Candidate to unseat if he was running for re-election in 2026.
Yeah, he doesn’t seem like a good fit for Ohio. I’d rather run against him than the usual Ohio type Republican.
Who would be ideal Democratic Candidates that can challenge Ramaswamy?
NC-09: just got a fundraising email from Jasmine Crockett's PAC for a candidate here...Richard Ojeda! Our candidate in WV-03 in 2018 and an unsuccessful candidate for the Democratic nomination in WV-Sen in 2020.
(BTW this is Geoneb, making my first comment since 2021 here)
Did Ojeda move to NC-09 some time ago? Maybe he gave up on WV.
Oddly enough the one person I know in WV also relocated to NC, albeit to the Triangle and not NC-09 (Southern Pines-Fayetteville)
I don’t envy anyone having lived in WV and then moving to a state like NC.
NC’s economy is just more robust than in WV. For starters, BofA’s headquarters is in Charlotte.
Welcome, glad to see you! Can NC-09 do better than Ojeda?
I don't live in NC anymore but I don't see why Ojeda couldn't pull it off. He does seem like a loose cannon but honestly is that a bad thing anymore?
It is when he voted for Trump and is a risk to switch parties.
Given that was in 2016, and he's a full resist lib now, I don't think that's really something to worry about
He's really become liberal? Did he become liberal before he left West Virginia?
Check his FB feed--dude is all in on opposing Trump