Morning Digest: Democrats would have to run the table to win a House majority

We look at the 10 races still in doubt

Democrat George Whitesides, who’s locked in a close race for the 27th Congressional District (credit: George Whitesides campaign site)

Leading Off

House

About two dozen House races remain uncalled by the Associated Press, but while Democrats have a narrow path to a majority, they'd have to virtually run the table when late-tallied votes are counted.

At the moment, Republicans are guaranteed 211 seats in the next Congress while Democrats are assured of holding 199. That means Democrats would need to win 19 of the unresolved races, including several where they currently trail.

Among the outstanding contests, many favor one party or the other; only around half are in doubt. (You can find a complete list by checking our continually updated overtime tracker.)

Republicans are likely to win five uncalled seats: Arizona's 1st and 2nd Districts, California's 22nd, Iowa's 1st, and Nebraska's 2nd. While the close Iowa race could head to a recount, GOP Rep. Marianette Miller-Meeks' 797-vote margin is unlikely to budge much. (Following a recount, Miller-Meeks won her first race in 2020 by six votes after initially leading by 47.)

Democrats, meanwhile, appear to be in good shape in 10 different districts. These include Arizona's 4th, Louisiana's 6th, Maryland's 6th, Ohio's 9th, Oregon's 6th, Washington's 3rd, and four California constituencies (the 9th, 21st, 39th, and 49th).

If all of these hold fast, that would give Republicans 216 seats and Democrats 209. To get to 218, then, they'd have to prevail in nine of the last 10 races—a tall order.

One contest, the race for northern Maine’s 2nd District, seems to be well in hand, but it took a bizarre turn late on Thursday when officials announced it would head to an instant runoff even though Democratic Rep. Jared Golden appears to have won a majority of the vote. (We explain this odd situation further in a separate item below.)

All the rest are out west, in states with large numbers of mail votes, many of which are not counted until after Election Day.

Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola faces some of the most difficult odds. She trails Republican Nick Begich 49-44 in a race that would also go to an instant runoff if no one wins a majority of the vote. But given how close Begich is to the 50% mark, Peltola likely needs a strong showing from uncounted ballots, which represent around 25% of the total.

In Arizona, meanwhile, Democrat Kirsten Engel leads Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani by 211 votes in the 6th District around Tucson, though almost 30% of the vote remains outstanding and the lead has already traded hands twice.

Over in Colorado, Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo leads Republican Gabe Evans by less than a point in the 8th District in the Denver suburbs, though in raw numbers, she has an edge of more than 2,300 votes, and only about 10% of the vote is left to be tallied.

Oregon Democrats have reason to feel good about Janelle Bynum's chances of flipping the 5th District, which runs from the Portland suburbs to the central part of the state. Bynum is ahead of Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer by more than 2 points, a difference of more than 8,500 votes, and almost 80% have been counted.

The final battleground is California, where five races remain uncertain, though Democrats are behind in all of them. Their strongest hopes lie in the 27th District in the Los Angeles suburbs, where George Whitesides trails Republican Rep. Mike Garcia by about 3,000 votes (or 1.5 points), and the 47th in Orange County, where Dave Min is just 616 votes back of Republican Scott Baugh.

In both areas, later-counted votes have been favorable to Democrats, as they've been in the 45th District, another Orange County seat. But there, Democrat Derek Tran faces a considerably more daunting 9,000-vote deficit against GOP Rep. Michelle Steele, who's up 52-48.

By contrast, the trends have not been positive for Democrat Will Rollins in the Palm Springs-based 41st District. He's been losing ground to Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, who's now ahead by more than 7,000 votes, or about 3 points.

Lastly, the 13th District in the Central Valley may be the toughest to decipher. In the four districts just mentioned, between 70 and 80% of the estimated total vote has been counted; in the 13th, that figure is under 60%. Republican Rep. John Duarte is sitting on a 3,000-vote lead, a gap of about 3 points.

Even in the likely event that Democrats fall short of retaking the House, these final races will play a major role in determining how large a deficit the party faces heading into 2026, when the chamber is all but certain to be fiercely contested once again.

House

VA-11

Longtime Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly, who easily won a ninth term this week, announced on Thursday that he has been diagnosed with cancer of the esophagus. In a statement, Connolly said he's beginning treatment "right away" and is "confident in a successful outcome."

Election Results

Race Calls

All estimates of the percentage of the vote counted come from the Associated Press.

• ME-Sen: Independent Sen. Angus King defeated Republican Demi Kouzounas 52-35, with another 11% going to Democrat David Costello. If King, who caucuses with the Democrats, had failed to win a majority, Maine would have used ranked-choice tabulations to determine the winner, which is likely why the AP waited to call this race despite King's wide lead.

• PA-Sen: Republican Dave McCormick unseated Democratic Sen. Bob Casey 48.9-48.5, a tight win that ensures that Republicans will hold at least 53 seats in the Senate. Two races remain uncalled, in Arizona and Nevada, but Democrats have narrow leads in both.

• CA-26: Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley beat Republican Michael Koslow 55-45 with 64% tabulated in California’s 26th District, which includes most of Ventura County.

• CA-40: Republican Rep. Young Kim defeated Democrat Joe Kerr 56-44 with 74% reporting in the 40th District in eastern Orange County.

• ME-02: In a strange turn of events, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows announced on Thursday evening that the close race between Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and Republican Austin Theriault would be resolved through ranked-choice tabulations next week, even though Golden ostensibly won a majority of the vote.

According to figures provided by the secretary of state's office to 538's Nathaniel Rakich, Golden currently has 50.2% of the vote versus 49.7% for Theriault, a difference of 2,159 votes. Another 420 ballots were cast for the only qualifying write-in candidate, a left-leaning former Democrat named Diana Merenda.

But the secretary of state says that a further 12,635 blank ballots (some of which were write-ins for ineligible candidates) must be included in the denominator. That's because it's conceivable, however unlikely, that some of these voters might have indicated second choices despite leaving their first option blank. (The secretary's rules permit a "single skipped ranking.")

With these blank ballots added in, Golden's advantage remains unchanged, but in percentage terms, he instead leads Theriault 48.6% to 48.1%. For Theriault to come from behind, then, he'd have to hope that an outsized proportion of voters who cast ballots for Mickey Mouse or skipped the initial ranking entirely nonetheless decided to pick him second.

Prior to Bellows' announcement, Theriault said on Thursday that he would request a recount. However, he must wait until results are certified to do so.

• NV-01: Democratic Rep. Dina Titus defeated Republican Mark Robertson 52-45 with 97% reporting in Nevada's 1st District in the eastern Las Vegas area.

• NV-03: Democratic Rep. Susie Lee held off Republican Drew Johnson 51-49 with 97% of the vote tabulated in the 3rd District in the southern Las Vegas region.

• NV-04: Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford beat Republican John Lee 53-45 with 97% reporting in the 4th District in the northern Las Vegas area.

• NY-04: Democrat Laura Gillen flipped New York's 4th District by winning her rematch against Republican Rep. Anthony D'Esposito 51-49. D'Esposito beat Gillen 52-48 two years ago for this constituency in southern Nassau County.

• OR-04: Democratic Rep. Val Hoyle turned back Republican Monique DeSpain 52-44 with 92% reporting in the 4th District, which is based along Oregon's southern coast.

• PA-10: Republican Rep. Scott Perry fended off Democrat Janelle Stelson 51-49 in Pennsylvania’s 10th District based around Harrisburg.

State Legislatures

Despite a tumultuous night at the top of the ticket, few state legislative chambers changed hands as a result of Tuesday's elections, though several remain up in the air.

• Alaska: A Democratic-led alliance has taken back Alaska's state House from Republicans after ousting several members of the previous conservative-dominated coalition. Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of Democrats and Republicans that formed after the 2022 elections will retain control of the state Senate.

The exact contours of the new coalition in the 40-member House are still uncertain as some races remain uncalled, but it will likely include every Democrat as well as a handful of independents and Republican pragmatists. A similar bloc governed the House from 2017 until last year after the GOP made gains in the midterms.

Thanks to this penchant for cross-party alliances in both chambers, Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who is term-limited in 2026, has never seen his party enjoy outright control of the legislature during his entire time in office and likely never will.

• Arizona: Republicans are on track to hold both chambers of Arizona's legislature and possibly expand their narrow two-seat majorities in the House and Senate. While pickups had looked possible for Democrats on Tuesday night, later-counted ballots have been favoring GOP candidates.

• Maine: Democrats appear to have narrowly held both the Senate and House in Maine, a state that was not high on target lists prior to Election Day.

• Michigan: Republicans have retaken control of the Michigan House after narrowly unseating a trio of Democratic incumbents, giving the GOP a 58-52 edge. Democrats were defending a slim 56-54 majority they earned in 2022 following the implementation of nonpartisan maps, ending more than a decade of Republican dominance.

Democrats remain in control of the state Senate, which is not up in presidential years, though an upcoming special election could erase their equally slender 20-18 advantage. That special for the swingy 35th District will be necessary because Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet just won the race to succeed outgoing Rep. Dan Kildee in the 8th Congressional District.

• Minnesota: Republicans may have forced a 67-67 tie in the Minnesota House, which Democrats had controlled 70-64 heading into the election. However, two races where Democrats lead—in one case by 28 votes and in the other by 13 votes—are headed to automatic recounts.

According to the National Conference of State Legislature, when the House was last tied following the 1978 elections, a power-sharing agreement was worked out between the parties.

The Senate, though, will remain in Democratic hands. While the chamber normally is not in play in presidential years, a special election was necessary for the 45th District following the resignation earlier this year of Democrat Kelly Morrison. Democrat Ann Johnson Stewart defeated Republican Kathleen Fowke 52-48 to hold the seat and the Senate, where Democrats have just a 34-33 majority.

• Montana: Democrats picked up several seats in the Montana Senate and House, busting the GOP's supermajorities in each chamber—and, importantly, their overall grip on two-thirds of all seats in the legislature. As a result, Republicans will no longer be able to refer constitutional amendments to the ballot without Democratic support, since such referrals need the backing of at least 100 out of 150 lawmakers across both chambers.

• Nevada: Nevada Democrats have fallen short of their goal of winning two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature, which would have allowed them to override vetoes by Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. While there's still a possibility they could achieve a supermajority in the Senate, where they were one seat short heading into the election (with half of all seats up), Republicans have dropped them below the two-thirds mark in the Assembly.

• North Carolina: Democrats in North Carolina just barely overcame new Republican gerrymanders to end the GOP's ability to override gubernatorial vetoes—a crucial development given Democrat Josh Stein's victory on Tuesday in this year's race for governor. While Republicans will still hold a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate, they're now one seat short in the House.

• Pennsylvania: Democrats appear to have retained control of the Pennsylvania House after a delayed vote count showed Democratic Rep. Frank Burns fending off Republican Amy Bradley to hold a deep-red district in Cambria County.

With nearly all votes counted after equipment used to tabulate ballots malfunctioned, Burns leads Bradley 52-46. If the results hold, Democrats would maintain the 102-101 majority they first won in 2022—remarkably, without a single seat changing hands anywhere in the state.

Republicans, meanwhile, will remain in charge of the Senate, where their 28-22 majority will be unchanged after Democrats failed to net any gains. (Only half the Senate was up this year.) While Democrats flipped one GOP-held open seat, Republicans made up for the loss by unseating a Democratic incumbent, Jimmy Dillon. However, an unknown number of provisional ballots remain, and Dillon trails by less than a point.

• Vermont: Vermont Republicans made major gains and broke Democratic supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature on the same night that Republican Gov. Phil Scott won a fifth two-year term, a development that will allow lawmakers to sustain Scott's vetoes.

• Wisconsin: Running on fair maps for the first time in ages, Democrats made major gains in the Wisconsin Senate and Assembly, though Republicans will remain in charge of both. 

Democrats flipped all four seats they'd targeted in the upper chamber, breaking the GOP's supermajority and narrowing the Republican advantage from 22-11 to 18-15. Democratic opportunities were limited because only half of the Senate is up every two years, but Tuesday's gains give the party a chance to secure a majority in 2026.

Democrats also picked up 10 seats in the Assembly, shrinking the GOP's edge from 64-34 to 54-45, and could likewise make further gains in two years' time.

Ballot Measures

Hundreds of state and local ballot measures went before voters on Tuesday, and we're tracking the outcomes for some of the most important contests in our continuously updated big board. Below we highlight a handful of the most high-profile results covering several different jurisdictions and topics.

Same-sex marriage

California and Colorado voters decisively approved amendments to remove same-sex marriage bans from their state constitutions. 

Voters in Hawaii, however, only narrowly voted to remove language from their state's governing document that authorizes the legislature to "reserve marriage to opposite-sex couples." The amendment prevailed 51-40, with an additional 8% skipping the question. Those undervotes almost made all the difference because constitutional amendments in Hawaii need to secure a majority of the total number of ballots cast, not just among those who voted "yes" or "no."

Same-sex marriage has been legal across the nation ever since the Supreme Court's 2015 decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, but advocates of LGBTQ rights argue that the court's hard turn to the right since then puts those rights at risk. To help keep future adverse rulings at bay, they've pushed for states to overturn existing bans even though they don't currently have the force of law.

Alaska

Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal the state's unique top-four primary system, holds a 51-49 lead with 76% of the vote tabulated. Opponents outraised the "yes" side 100-1, but the measure's supporters relied on conservative hostility toward ranked-choice voting. However, enough votes remain outstanding that the measure could still fail.

Maine

Mainers rejected Question 5, which would have replaced the state flag with a different design, by a 55-45 margin. However, they passed Question 1, which will place contribution limits on state-level super PACs, 74-26.

Los Angeles, CA

Los Angeles overwhelmingly approved a plan to create a new independent commission to redraw boundaries for the City Council. Charter Amendment DD leads 73-27 as of Friday morning, though the margin could shift as more ballots are counted.

The amendment's passage comes two years after a major scandal in which three city council members and a labor leader made racist comments as they discussed how to draw new district lines. Two of those politicians are no longer in office, and the third, City Councilman Kevin de Leon, won't be around much longer: De Leon badly lost reelection on Tuesday to tenant rights attorney Ysabel Jurado.

North Dakota

North Dakotans gave the thumbs down to Measure 2, which would have made it much tougher to pass citizen-initiated ballot measures—particularly for progressives—by a 56-44 margin.

Ohio

Voters rejected Issue 1, which would have created an independent redistricting commission, by a 54-46 margin. Issue 1's backers, who enjoyed a big financial advantage over opponents, blamed the defeat on the deceptive ballot summary crafted by Ohio's GOP-dominated Ballot Board.

San Antonio, TX

A 53-47 majority of San Antonio voters approved Proposition F, which extends the term lengths of mayors and members of the city council from two years to four. The vote result comes ahead of what's already shaping up to be a busy race next May to succeed termed-limited Mayor Ron Nirenberg, who recently began identifying as a Democrat after previously rejecting a party label.

Washington, D.C.

Initiative 83, which would introduce ranked-choice voting into primaries, passed 73-27, but proponents have another battle ahead. 

The D.C. Council needs to provide funding before Initiative 83, which would also allow registered independents to participate in primaries, can go into effect. While Council Chair Phil Mendelson expressed opposition to the plan before Election Day, he has yet to make it clear what he'll do now that voters have overwhelmingly approved it.

Initiative 83's victory came on a night when voters in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and South Dakota all rejected ballot measures that would have revamped their election systems in various ways, including replacing party primaries with top-four or top-five primaries and implementing ranked-choice voting.

Local Elections

We're also keeping tabs on major races for city and county offices on our continually updated tracker. Below we discuss the results from some of the most notable contests.

Election Administrators

Maricopa County, AZ Recorder

Republican hardliner Justin Heap defeated Democrat Tim Stringham to become the chief elections administrator for Maricopa County, which is home to about 60% of Arizona's residents. Heap leads 53-47 with 76% tabulated, and while there are still many ballots left to count, Stringham conceded early Wednesday after concluding that he couldn't pull ahead.

In the GOP primary in late July, Heap defeated incumbent Stephen Richer, who had infuriated election conspiracy theorists by persistently pushing back against lies about recent elections. The Arizona Republic writes that Heap "has echoed the rhetoric of voting conspiracies but has carefully refrained from endorsing falsehoods wholeheartedly."

Miami-Dade County, FL Supervisor of Elections

Republican Alina Garcia beat Democrat Juan-Carlos Planas 56-44 to become Miami-Dade County's first elected supervisor of elections in decades. Garcia will succeed Democrat Christina White, an appointee who unexpectedly announced last year that she would not run for a full term.

This post became an elected office because of a 2018 state constitutional amendment requiring each county to elect a supervisor of elections and several other local offices, including sheriff, by 2024. Only Miami-Dade, Broward, and Volusia counties were impacted by these changes.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Hamilton County, OH Prosecutor

Democrat Connie Pillich broke the GOP's 92-year-winning streak by unseating Prosecutor Melissa Powers 51-49 in Hamilton County, which contains Cincinnati and many of its suburbs.

Hillsborough County, FL State Attorney

Appointed Republican incumbent Suzy Lopez turned back her predecessor, Democrat Andrew Warren, 53-47 in Tampa's Hillsborough County. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis permanently suspended Warren in 2022 for, among other things, refusing to prosecute people who obtain or provide abortions, and he chose Lopez to replace him.

Johnson County, KS Sheriff

Byron Roberson beat Republican Doug Bedford 51-49, a win that makes him the first Democrat to win an election as sheriff in Johnson County in 96 years. Roberson will also be the first Black person to hold this post in a longtime GOP stronghold in the Kansas City suburbs that had swung hard to the left over the last decade, though it did not shift further at the presidential level this year.

The sheriff's office is currently occupied by Calvin Hayden, a far-right incumbent who spent the last several years spreading election conspiracy theories. Bedford decisively unseated Hayden in the August primary after arguing that his old boss was wasting taxpayer money and behaving unprofessionally, a win that, in the not-too-distant past, would have all but guaranteed his election.

Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney

Nathan Hochman unseated Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon in a landslide to become the top prosecutor for America's most populous county. Hochman leads Gascon 61-39 with 66% reporting in this officially nonpartisan race.

Gascon, a Democrat who's called himself the "godfather of progressive prosecutors," took over four years ago at a time when crime was on the rise nationally. Opponents of his reforms, including many of his own subordinates, didn't hesitate to blame him for the spike and even unsuccessfully tried to recall him from office early. 

Hochman, who ran for California attorney general in 2022 as a Republican but now identifies as an independent, waged a well-funded campaign portraying Gascon as weak on crime. The incumbent tried to make Hochman's former party affiliation a liability in this dark blue county, but it was far too little to turn things around. 

Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff

Republican Jerry Sheridan flipped this office by defeating Democrat Tyler Kamp in the race for Maricopa County sheriff. Sheridan leads 54-46 with 76% of the vote in, and Kamp conceded Wednesday.

Miami-Dade County, FL Sheriff

Republican Rosie Cordero-Stutz beat Democrat James Reyes 56-44 to become Miami-Dade County's first elected sheriff since the 1960s.

Orange and Osceola Counties, FL States Attorney

Democrat Monique Worrell won back her old office by defeating appointed States Attorney Andrew Bain, who identifies as an independent, 57-43 in the Orlando area. 

DeSantis permanently suspended Worrell last year for ostensibly failing to seek serious penalties in violent crime cases. Worrell, who argued her prosecution rate was comparable to that of her predecessors, quickly launched a bid to retake her office from Bain, whom she labeled "DeSantis' handpicked puppet."

Mayors

Las Vegas, NV Mayor

Former Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley defeated Republican City Councilwoman Victoria Seaman in the officially nonpartisan race to succeed Las Vegas' termed-out mayor, independent Carolyn Goodman. Berkley, who leads 53-47 with over 240,000 ballots counted, was last on the ballot in 2012 when she narrowly failed to unseat GOP Sen. Dean Heller.

Berkley's successful comeback will make her the first person outside the Goodman family to run Sin City since the current mayor's husband, Oscar Goodman, was elected in 1999. Oscar Goodman identified as a Democrat until he dropped his party affiliation a decade later, while Carolyn Goodman was already an independent when she was elected in 2015.

Portland, OR Mayor

Businessman Keith Wilson won an upset victory in the ranked-choice contest to succeed outgoing Mayor Ted Wheeler as leader of Portland.

Wilson, who runs an all-electric trucking company, took first in the 19-person field with 36%. Three members of Portland's city council, Rene Gonzalez, Carmen Rubio, and Mingus Mapps, respectively earned 20%, 19%, and 14%. Rubio passed Gonzalez as the 19 rounds of ranked-choice tabulations proceeded, but Wilson ultimately beat her 63-37.

The chief contenders for most of the race appeared to be Gonzalez, who campaigned as a tough-on-crime Democrat, and Rubio, who had the support of several progressive and labor groups. But many of Rubio's allies, who badly wanted to beat Gonzalez, encouraged voters to also rank Wilson after her campaign faltered following unwanted headlines over her driving record.

Wilson, who has never held office before, also tapped into broader discontent with the state of affairs in Oregon's largest city. The candidate, who focused on ending homelessness, argued, "Electing one of our failed city leaders into the Mayor's office will double down on the dysfunction of the status quo."

San Francisco, CA Mayor

Nonprofit founder Daniel Lurie secured victory on Thursday when San Francisco Mayor London Breed conceded that she’d lost the city’s ranked-choice election.

With 48% reporting, Lurie leads Breed 28-25 in the officially nonpartisan race, with Supervisor Aaron Peskin taking 22%. (All of the major candidates identify as Democrats, though Peskin held himself out as the most progressive option.) San Francisco performs ranked-choice tabulations as ballots are processed rather than waiting until all votes have been counted, and Lurie currently leads Breed 56-44 after the 14th and final round.

Tulsa, OK Mayor

State Rep. Monroe Nichols defeated Tulsa County Commissioner Karen Keith, a fellow Democrat, by a 56-44 margin in the contest to succeed retiring GOP Mayor G.T. Bynum. Nichols will be Tulsa's first Black leader, as well as its first Democratic mayor in 15 years.