Morning Digest: DeSantis taps replacement for Rubio, but she may not have smooth sailing

Other Republicans have yet to fall in line for Ashley Moody

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody (credit: Ashley Moody campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

FL-Sen

Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Thursday that he would appoint Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody to the Senate to replace Marco Rubio, who is poised to be confirmed as Donald Trump's secretary of state. Moody, though, could be in for a competitive battle in next year's Republican primary to keep her new job.

Rep. Cory Mills responded to the news by reiterating that he might challenge the Sunshine State's incoming senator and bashed Moody for endorsing DeSantis over Donald Trump in an interview with CNN's Manu Raju. Mills, who supported Trump in the primary, said he'd "talk to the president" about what to do next, though he indicated he wouldn't decide soon.

"We are going to look at how she does, how she votes and how she supports the agenda," Mills said of Moody. "We’re gonna keep an eye on the seat and we’ll make a decision when the time is right."

Rep. Kat Cammack has been quieter about her plans, but NBC's Matt Dixon reports that she's also thinking about waging a Senate campaign. Cammack and Mills both tried to convince DeSantis to appoint them instead of Moody, but the governor said Thursday that the party's tiny majority in the House made him hesitant to choose either member.

Other Republicans could also decide to test Moody's strength. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz said last month that he was thinking about running for the Senate, though he seems more interested in seeking the governorship (assuming he's not just characteristically trolling everyone). Gaetz, who is now an anchor for the far-right One America News Network, even retweeted a post one of his guests made on X on Wednesday that called for "a real MAGA conservative like" Mills to take this seat.

No notable Democrats have expressed interest yet in running in a state that has bolted hard to the right over the last several elections. Whoever wins next year's special election will be up for a full six-year term in 2028.

While Moody grew up in a Democratic family―Bill Clinton appointed her father as a federal judge in 2000―she took a different path in politics and won a local judgeship as a Republican in Tampa's Hillsborough County in 2006.

Moody made the jump to statewide office in 2018 when she ran for attorney general, but she had to get through a nasty primary against state Rep. Frank White. One of White's attacks focused on a 2009 lawsuit Moody and several family members brought against none other than Trump, accusing him of making a "series of fraudulent and negligent misrepresentations" in a failed development deal. But the ads about the suit, which was settled in 2011, didn't stop Moody from decisively beating White.

In the general election, Democrats hoped Trump's national unpopularity would help state Rep. Sean Shaw win an office the party had last won in 1998, but Moody's 52-46 showing instead made her the top vote-getter in any partisan race for statewide office in Florida that year. She soon became a sought-after speaker at Republican gatherings and later participated in a failed lawsuit to overturn Trump's 2020 loss.

Moody won a second term 61-39 in 2022, which once again was the strongest performance of any statewide candidate, and her name soon came up as a plausible contender to succeed DeSantis in 2026. Moody, though, instead is about to take up a post that only one other Florida woman—the late Republican Paula Hawkins—has ever held.

The Minnesota GOP tries to hijack a tied House

Senate

GA-Sen

The hardline Club for Growth has publicized a poll arguing that Gov. Brian Kemp would defeat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff while showing other Georgia Republicans falling short.

The survey, from WPA Intelligence, shows Kemp ahead 46-40, making this the first poll we've seen of this hypothetical contest. Ossoff, by contrast, holds at least a 10-point lead over four other potential foes: Reps. Buddy Carter and Rich McCormick, Insurance Commissioner John King, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

Kemp, who cannot seek a third term in his current post, is perhaps the GOP's top Senate recruit nationwide. The governor hasn't committed to challenging Ossoff, though, nor has he put to rest rumors that he could instead choose to run for president in 2028.

Governors

FL-Gov, FL-19

Republican Rep. Byron Donalds has spent the month telling donors, lobbyists, and other party insiders that he'll run for governor next year, NBC's Matt Dixon reports. The congressman neither confirmed nor denied his interest in a subsequent statement that said he was "fully focused on helping President Trump pass his America First Agenda."

Donalds, who would be Florida's first Black governor, has made a name for himself as an ardent Trump supporter during his three terms in Congress. His relationship with his would-be predecessor, though, is more complicated. Dixon notes that, while termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis was once an important Donalds ally, the two "had a swift falling out" when the congressman supported Trump in the 2024 presidential primary.

If Donalds seeks a promotion, there would be an open-seat race to replace him in the safely red 19th Congressional District. This constituency, which includes Fort Myers and the Cape Coral area, hosted a packed 2020 primary that Donalds won by fewer than 800 votes.

VA-Gov

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the likely Democratic nominee in this year's race for governor, ended 2024 with a hefty $6.6 million to $2.1 million cash lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, according to new campaign finance reports released on Wednesday.

Earle-Sears tried to deflect any unfavorable comparisons by arguing that the Democrat owes her edge to her long head start. Spanberger announced her campaign to lead Virginia in November of 2023 and raised close to $10 million over the next 14 months. The lieutenant governor, by contrast, kicked off her campaign last September and took in $2.6 million, though there was nothing stopping her from entering the race earlier.

The financial picture could change abruptly, however. Virginia, unlike most states, doesn't place limits on campaign contributions in state races, so wealthy donors and major outside groups are free to contribute as much as they want to their preferred contenders.

Meanwhile, Christopher Newport University's first poll of this race gives Spanberger a 44-39 edge, with a considerable 16% of respondents undecided. Recent surveys from Emerson College and Mason-Dixon found Spanberger ahead by 1 and 3 points, respectively.

House

CA-49

San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond announced Thursday that he would challenge Democratic Rep. Mike Levin in next year's contest for California's 49th District. Desmond, a Republican, is a longtime local elected official in northern San Diego County, an area known locally as North County.

The kickoff comes a little more than two months after Levin won a fourth term by defeating Republican Matt Gunderson 52-48 following an expensive race. According to data from the two counties that make up the 49th (San Diego and Orange), Kamala Harris carried the district by a wider 52-45 margin.

NY-21

Conservative activist Liz Joy hasn't received much outside attention yet, but the Times Union dubs her one of the two leading candidates to receive the GOP nomination in the likely special election to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik in the 21st District.

The other frontrunner, according to the paper, is Assemblyman Chris Tague, though both businessman Josh Parker, who pitched his maple syrup company on a 2016 "Shark Tank" episode, and Rensselaer County Executive Steve McLaughlin reportedly have support among the party leaders who will decide the nomination.

Joy waged a pair of little-noticed campaigns in the neighboring 20th District against Democratic Rep. Paul Tonko in 2020 and 2022. In between those efforts, she attended the Donald Trump rally that preceded the Jan. 6 riot, though she's claimed she only learned about the violence at the Capitol after her group was back on their bus. She was later involved in the unsuccessful campaign to convince voters to reject the state's Equal Rights Amendment last year.

OH-09, OH-13

After Republicans fell just short of unseating Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes last year, they're eager to try again, prompting the Ohio Spotlight's Andrew Tobias to take an early look at potential candidates. The GOP will also have the opportunity to redraw the state's congressional map in time for next year's elections, though no one knows what the new constituencies might look like.

Two northwestern Ohio politicians tell Tobias they're open to taking on Kaptur in the 9th District. Former state Rep. Craig Riedel, who lost both the 2022 and 2024 primaries, says he and his wife are "prayerfully discerning our way forward," while state Rep. Josh Williams also acknowledged that he's considering.

Tobias also mentions former state Rep. Derek Merrin, whom Kaptur defeated 48.3-47.6 last fall, and state Senate President Rob McColley as possibilities. Neither appears to have said anything publicly yet, however, about their future plans.

Kaptur, who is 78, is hinting that she doesn't plan to go anywhere voluntarily. Her team instead highlighted that she filed new FEC paperwork last month for a potential campaign for a 23rd term.

Over to the east in the 13th District, Tobias writes that GOP sources say that former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin is "likely" to seek a rematch against Sykes, who just beat him 51-49. He might not have the field to himself, though, as state Sen. Kristina Roegner says that she's thinking about running here.

Attorneys General

FL-AG

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis announced on Thursday that he'd chosen his chief of staff, James Uthmeier, to replace soon-to-be-Sen. Ashley Moody as Florida's attorney general. Uthmeier, who managed DeSantis' disastrous White House bid, will be up for a full term next year.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

New York City's Campaign Finance Board announced Wednesday that city Comptroller Brad Lander had become the second Democratic candidate for mayor to qualify for the city's 8-to-1 matching funds program, a development that rewarded his campaign with a $3 million infusion.

Last month, the panel determined that Scott Stringer, who is Lander's immediate predecessor, had raised enough in small donations from eligible city residents to make him the first candidate eligible for a match. Stringer only officially declared he was running for mayor on Thursday, though most observers treated the creation of his exploratory committee a year ago as a full-fledged kickoff.

Two other Democratic contenders, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie, also believe they've raised enough from small donors to receive millions when the Board holds its next meeting next month. State Sen. Jessica Ramos has trailed financially, but her team says they think she'll qualify for six figures' worth of public financing.

The Board voted last month to deny funds to Mayor Eric Adams, taking note of the fact that he was indicted by federal prosecutors on corruption charges last year. Adams' team hasn't given up, though, and his attorney says they're working with the body to qualify.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, meanwhile, has not been raising money ahead of his anticipated campaign launch next month, but he'll still have plenty of cash available to aid his campaign. Cuomo, according to reports released this week, retains close to $8 million in his old gubernatorial account. Politico's Bill Mahoney says that while the ex-governor can only transfer a small portion of that to a mayoral campaign, he's free to ship it all to an allied super PAC.

Oakland, CA Mayor

Federal authorities indicted former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao on Thursday following a corruption investigation, according to an unnamed source who spoke with the San Francisco Chronicle. While the indictment has not been publicly revealed, the paper reports that federal authorities plan to share details on a "major law enforcement action" this morning.

The news comes just over two months after voters decisively recalled Thao. The ousted mayor last month declined to rule out running in the special election for her old job, but hadn't taken further steps toward a bid ahead of today's candidate filing deadline.

Former Rep. Barbara Lee, meanwhile, earned an endorsement this week from Thao's immediate predecessor, former Mayor Libby Schaaf. Three years ago, Schaaf backed a different candidate to replace her, former City Councilman Loren Taylor, who is also running in the April 15 special against Lee.