It’s good reading of a state that gerrymandering has been struck down!Will this Democracy ever reign where the people control by fair democratic vote??
Retention elections are nearly always sleepers in PA. Do you have any evidence that the 2025 PA retention elections will be different? Have you heard of outside groups spending on this? Have you heard of the PA GOP focusing on this?
Vivek Ramaswamy's candidacy for governor of Ohio enables him to save face after being pushed out of co-directorship, with Elon Musk, of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.
Perhaps Vivek should consider transferring from DOGE to the Disease Efficiency Advancement Department (DEAD), which of course will be headed by RFK Jr.
He's quite possibly the most unlikable asshole in all of American politics; I do not think he will be elected to any public office(appointment is possible)
I'm not trying to compare cities here but given former Oakland, CA Mayor Sheng Thao just got indicted by the FBI after her home was raided months before her recall, I don't think New Yorkers are going to give Adams a pass on this.
I really don't think he wins with RCV, and he's fallen enough in public esteem that he probably wouldn't win even if all he needed were a straight up plurality.
And if he bypasses the primary by going Republican or Independent, then he's probably just delaying the inevitable until November.
Not sure if this has been covered yet, but the Democratic Primary for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia now has seven candidates. Three of them are from NoVA (Babur Lateef, Victor Salgado, Alex Bastani), two are from the Richmond area (Levar Stoney, Ghazala Hashmi), one is from Southside (Carl Eggleston), and one is from Hampton Roads (Aaron Rouse).
Conversation dies down in the aftermath of elections, up until things start to ramp up again as the next cycle starts in earnest.
I expect a lot of people are feeling as I am right now, too: depressed about the election, with all the various feelings of hopelessness and despair added in. I'm actively avoiding news about the current admin for my own mental health. The downballot (hence the name!) and more in the weeds discussions focus here are why I haven't disappeared for a while too.
Simply put, there's a lot less on-topic discussion to be had right now. Not zero, but a lot less. The adjacent discussions that we'd normally be having are ones that, at least me and I assume others, are actively avoiding having.
The only elections in before the end of the year are some red seat special elections in the house and Wisconsin supreme court. The house special elections we should lose handily, barring an extreme miracle. Wisconsin should be starting up soon-ish but usually there's less coverage, polling, etc. for us to work with to discuss for judicial elections.
The big 2025 elections will only really start to ramp up somewhere between late spring and late summer. Virginia and New Jersey governor + legislative elections, mayor of NYC, and Pennsylvania supreme court will be the marque elections of the year, and we need to wait for them to start in earnest before there's much to discuss.
I could mention that Josh Kraft announced his candidacy for mayor of Boston, but barring something unexpected happening that's merely him signing up to be pasted by Michelle Wu while the Boston Herald and its readers shake their fists in rage.
Josh Kraft is the son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. He's donated to campaigns of both parties, but hasn't held elected office himself.
He donated to Wu in 2021, but in 2023 he gave to a an anti-Wu slate that had the backing of GOP financiers, even though the candidates were probably at least nominally Democratic (maybe Independent). That slate lost and there's probably not much reason to think Kraft will do much better.
Janus said it well! I too am consciously avoiding news about the new American regime. I’m well aware that Trump and his Project 2025 cohorts are presently engaged in "shock and awe", following the advice of Steve Bannon: "Flood the zone with shit." Theirs is a toxic mix of vindictiveness, performative politics, and deeply undemocratic and unconstitutional power grabs. I feel no need to be a glued-to-my seat spectator in real time.
Instead, for my own mental health, I’ve been visiting the international news sites that I frequent, avoiding US news even there.
Importantly, I also follow the refreshingly-calm coverage and discussion here at The Downballot.
Gina, you’re welcome to seek out the excitement and high-energy panic of DailyKos. Meanwhile, it’s nowhere near as quiet here as you portray it. Yesterday there were 31 comments, in this weekend’s Open Thread there were 49 comments. That’s not unsubstantial. But feel free to go back to DK.
I, however, am immensely grateful for the deeply-professional and always-informative journalism of David Nir & Jeff Singer and the level-headed contributions of commenters, so I am going to stay right here.
Not uncommon for January after the election. But DKE circa 2024 wasn't as populated as it was in 2012 either. Probably a matter of expanded online election analysis supply without the corresponding growth in demand to keep all of destinations sufficiently populated.
I get it. Elections were a lot more fun when all politics wasn't national and 98% of outcomes weren't so preordained by tribalism. There's just a lot less to talk about in 2024 when Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester can't beat Bernie Moreno and Tim Sheehy compared to 2012 when, as one example, Heidi Heitkamp could outrun Obama by 20 points and win North Dakota.
That is true. I just thought the other day that maybe PVI actually could be relevant. I can’t remember why it deserved a change as I always found it so dumb. Things line up a lot more neatly now.
Oh! It’s because going back to a previous election cycle and averaging the two seemed weird with so much ticket splitting. It could actually be useful now in explaining trends.
This is a very good point. I've always enjoyed analyzing elections where Democrats or progressive ballot measures do unexpectedly well in red states - for example, the 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was fascinating. And analyzing the 2023 abortion referenda in Kansas and Ohio was also really fun. But is a bit deflating when stuff like that doesn't seem to have any impact on presidential elections.
On that note, how many state legislators, anywhere in the country, are left who represent districts that heavily favor the other party (by a 2-1 margin or greater)? The Democrats who first come to mind are Pennsylvania's Frank Burns and Kentucky's Ashley Laferty, while the first Republican I can think of is Vermont's Rich Westman representing heavily Democratic Lamoille County.
Hope Democrats keep tabs on the 1/6 pardon list and highlight their future crimes when they inevitably happen and are repeated as often as we hear names like Laken Riley.
On a side note, I once commented to someone who displayed a "Back the Blue" sign: "My complements to you on your support of Democrats. I wish more in our community would back the Blue ticket."
I don’t think that poor chap ever looked at his yard sign with the same eyes.
As a Yankees fan, I liked Sabathia but never once thought of him as a Hall of Famer. If he's in the Hall of Fame, how is Guidry out? (To be clear, I don't think Guidry is quite a Hall of Famer by rights, either.) How is a career 3.74 ERA outstanding? Ichiro was a great player, though, and I think his excellence in Japanese baseball as well as the Major Leagues should be taken into account. I think he belongs. He was one of the best throwing outfielders I've ever seen and there were times when it was nearly impossible to pitch to him, plus he had outstanding speed on both sides of the field. He made a big impact on the game.
At this point, Fetterman's just begging to get primaried big time in 2028. And by that time, Trump won't be running for office to bail him out (as much as he'd like to try anyways)
I don't want to be the one here arguing for a primary challenger for Fetterman but if it were to happen that he'd get primaried out of office, I'd prefer it be Conor Lamb. He wasn't my choice in the 2022 Democratic Senate Primary Race but Lamb is remarkably intelligent and very good on the issues even if there are areas of disagreement I have with him. He's also still quite young compared to Fetterman at the age of 40.
That said, I'd wait and see what happens. We have the 2026 midterms so Fetterman may change his instincts if he sees the 2026 midterm election results for Democrats in PA are more favorable than he imagined.
I’m an American voter who expected a LOT better from my fellow citizens. And especially the news outlets that were tired of a boring effective Dem and wanted more FDJT drama by sanewashing that man and undermining Biden’s policy accomplishments.
Apparently the price of eggs was worth putting that convicted felon back in office even though prices are going to continue going up.
The Bernie Bros and single issue voters like the Free Palestine movement did not help either.
Sorry if this has already been covered, but https://politicalwire.com/2025/01/22/jocelyn-benson-launches-bid-for-michigan-governor/ The Detroit Free Press noted that "“Michigan voters first elected Benson as Secretary of State in 2018 and then again in 2022 by a nearly 14-point margin — the biggest of any of the major statewide races that year." She should be a strong candidate for Governor if Michiganders don't have their heads up their asses and vote for a Republican again.
MI electing another female Democratic Governor back to back would be an interesting sight to see.
This would also give Governor Gretchen Whitmer freedom to chose her next path in her political career should she decide on going further with it (i.e. considering jumping in the 2028 presidential race).
It’s good reading of a state that gerrymandering has been struck down!Will this Democracy ever reign where the people control by fair democratic vote??
Trump: Rename the Gulf of Mexico. Mother Nature: Up Yours
https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1881668131573407908
Retention elections are nearly always sleepers in PA. Do you have any evidence that the 2025 PA retention elections will be different? Have you heard of outside groups spending on this? Have you heard of the PA GOP focusing on this?
Yes. I linked to this article in the post: https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2024-12-23/pennsylvania-supreme-court-retention-political-fight
Did you read the post? Lol
Matt Meyer (D-DE) and Kyle Evans Gay (D-DE) have been sworn in as Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Delaware at the HBCU Delaware State University! https://whyy.org/articles/matt-meyer-swearing-in-delaware-new-governor/
Vivek Ramaswamy's candidacy for governor of Ohio enables him to save face after being pushed out of co-directorship, with Elon Musk, of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.
It is hilarious that he lasted at DOGE all of one day, lol
Perhaps Vivek should consider transferring from DOGE to the Disease Efficiency Advancement Department (DEAD), which of course will be headed by RFK Jr.
He's quite possibly the most unlikable asshole in all of American politics; I do not think he will be elected to any public office(appointment is possible)
The competition is keen: Marjorie Taylor Greene; Lauren Boebert; Ted Cruz; Kari Lake; Mark Robinson; Donald Trump. . . .
I am voting vivek
I've always seen Vivek to be cocky and talking so quickly as if he loves the sound of his voice too much.
Staying in business is where he belongs. That's his specialty. Going MAGA makes him look like a dufus.
Can you say "one term Mayor?" https://www.newsday.com/news/new-york/mayor-eric-adams-trump-oqmbyt7z
He’s angling for a pardon.
some folks here feel like he's capable of winning another term; I don't
I'm not trying to compare cities here but given former Oakland, CA Mayor Sheng Thao just got indicted by the FBI after her home was raided months before her recall, I don't think New Yorkers are going to give Adams a pass on this.
I really don't think he wins with RCV, and he's fallen enough in public esteem that he probably wouldn't win even if all he needed were a straight up plurality.
And if he bypasses the primary by going Republican or Independent, then he's probably just delaying the inevitable until November.
Adams thinks the world revolves around him.
However, the FBI has him in a corner now.
https://abc7ny.com/post/fbi-uncovers-additional-criminal-conduct-nyc-mayor-eric-adams-new-court-filing-says/15772152/
I certainly hope so. I'd rather have De Blasio back, if that were the only choice.
https://substack.com/@dannys2/note/c-87639650?r=5okqj&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
I know you call it “ the rule of law”, but in many countries it’s called censorship. Just saying
I highly doubt those judges would lose retention elections but our side needs to be ready with all the heavy artillery at its call; just to be ready
Not sure if this has been covered yet, but the Democratic Primary for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia now has seven candidates. Three of them are from NoVA (Babur Lateef, Victor Salgado, Alex Bastani), two are from the Richmond area (Levar Stoney, Ghazala Hashmi), one is from Southside (Carl Eggleston), and one is from Hampton Roads (Aaron Rouse).
The candidates are all listed here: https://www.vpap.org/offices/lt-governor/elections/
Conversation dies down in the aftermath of elections, up until things start to ramp up again as the next cycle starts in earnest.
I expect a lot of people are feeling as I am right now, too: depressed about the election, with all the various feelings of hopelessness and despair added in. I'm actively avoiding news about the current admin for my own mental health. The downballot (hence the name!) and more in the weeds discussions focus here are why I haven't disappeared for a while too.
Simply put, there's a lot less on-topic discussion to be had right now. Not zero, but a lot less. The adjacent discussions that we'd normally be having are ones that, at least me and I assume others, are actively avoiding having.
The only elections in before the end of the year are some red seat special elections in the house and Wisconsin supreme court. The house special elections we should lose handily, barring an extreme miracle. Wisconsin should be starting up soon-ish but usually there's less coverage, polling, etc. for us to work with to discuss for judicial elections.
The big 2025 elections will only really start to ramp up somewhere between late spring and late summer. Virginia and New Jersey governor + legislative elections, mayor of NYC, and Pennsylvania supreme court will be the marque elections of the year, and we need to wait for them to start in earnest before there's much to discuss.
I could mention that Josh Kraft announced his candidacy for mayor of Boston, but barring something unexpected happening that's merely him signing up to be pasted by Michelle Wu while the Boston Herald and its readers shake their fists in rage.
Josh Kraft is the son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. He's donated to campaigns of both parties, but hasn't held elected office himself.
He donated to Wu in 2021, but in 2023 he gave to a an anti-Wu slate that had the backing of GOP financiers, even though the candidates were probably at least nominally Democratic (maybe Independent). That slate lost and there's probably not much reason to think Kraft will do much better.
Bob Kraft will give coupons good for free happy endings to all donors to his son’s campaign.
Janus said it well! I too am consciously avoiding news about the new American regime. I’m well aware that Trump and his Project 2025 cohorts are presently engaged in "shock and awe", following the advice of Steve Bannon: "Flood the zone with shit." Theirs is a toxic mix of vindictiveness, performative politics, and deeply undemocratic and unconstitutional power grabs. I feel no need to be a glued-to-my seat spectator in real time.
Instead, for my own mental health, I’ve been visiting the international news sites that I frequent, avoiding US news even there.
Importantly, I also follow the refreshingly-calm coverage and discussion here at The Downballot.
Gina, you’re welcome to seek out the excitement and high-energy panic of DailyKos. Meanwhile, it’s nowhere near as quiet here as you portray it. Yesterday there were 31 comments, in this weekend’s Open Thread there were 49 comments. That’s not unsubstantial. But feel free to go back to DK.
I, however, am immensely grateful for the deeply-professional and always-informative journalism of David Nir & Jeff Singer and the level-headed contributions of commenters, so I am going to stay right here.
Not uncommon for January after the election. But DKE circa 2024 wasn't as populated as it was in 2012 either. Probably a matter of expanded online election analysis supply without the corresponding growth in demand to keep all of destinations sufficiently populated.
I get it. Elections were a lot more fun when all politics wasn't national and 98% of outcomes weren't so preordained by tribalism. There's just a lot less to talk about in 2024 when Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester can't beat Bernie Moreno and Tim Sheehy compared to 2012 when, as one example, Heidi Heitkamp could outrun Obama by 20 points and win North Dakota.
That is true. I just thought the other day that maybe PVI actually could be relevant. I can’t remember why it deserved a change as I always found it so dumb. Things line up a lot more neatly now.
Oh! It’s because going back to a previous election cycle and averaging the two seemed weird with so much ticket splitting. It could actually be useful now in explaining trends.
This is a very good point. I've always enjoyed analyzing elections where Democrats or progressive ballot measures do unexpectedly well in red states - for example, the 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was fascinating. And analyzing the 2023 abortion referenda in Kansas and Ohio was also really fun. But is a bit deflating when stuff like that doesn't seem to have any impact on presidential elections.
On that note, how many state legislators, anywhere in the country, are left who represent districts that heavily favor the other party (by a 2-1 margin or greater)? The Democrats who first come to mind are Pennsylvania's Frank Burns and Kentucky's Ashley Laferty, while the first Republican I can think of is Vermont's Rich Westman representing heavily Democratic Lamoille County.
Hope Democrats keep tabs on the 1/6 pardon list and highlight their future crimes when they inevitably happen and are repeated as often as we hear names like Laken Riley.
Commuting cop attackers will work in commercials. Back the blue they say
On a side note, I once commented to someone who displayed a "Back the Blue" sign: "My complements to you on your support of Democrats. I wish more in our community would back the Blue ticket."
I don’t think that poor chap ever looked at his yard sign with the same eyes.
2025 Cooperstown ballot: Ichiro, Sabathia, and Wagner in.
https://bsky.app/profile/notmrtibbs.com/post/3lgbymopczk24
The latter 2 had no business making it.
As a Yankees fan, I liked Sabathia but never once thought of him as a Hall of Famer. If he's in the Hall of Fame, how is Guidry out? (To be clear, I don't think Guidry is quite a Hall of Famer by rights, either.) How is a career 3.74 ERA outstanding? Ichiro was a great player, though, and I think his excellence in Japanese baseball as well as the Major Leagues should be taken into account. I think he belongs. He was one of the best throwing outfielders I've ever seen and there were times when it was nearly impossible to pitch to him, plus he had outstanding speed on both sides of the field. He made a big impact on the game.
John Fetterman is the lone Democrat to vote with Republicans on the motion to proceed on Pete Hegseth's nomination as SecDef.
At this point, Fetterman's just begging to get primaried big time in 2028. And by that time, Trump won't be running for office to bail him out (as much as he'd like to try anyways)
I don't want to be the one here arguing for a primary challenger for Fetterman but if it were to happen that he'd get primaried out of office, I'd prefer it be Conor Lamb. He wasn't my choice in the 2022 Democratic Senate Primary Race but Lamb is remarkably intelligent and very good on the issues even if there are areas of disagreement I have with him. He's also still quite young compared to Fetterman at the age of 40.
That said, I'd wait and see what happens. We have the 2026 midterms so Fetterman may change his instincts if he sees the 2026 midterm election results for Democrats in PA are more favorable than he imagined.
I think Dems will overperform in Pennsylvania thanks to the Trump effect. Ditto for the WISC election in April but they gotta work for it.
What Trump effect? He just won an election in the strongest economy in the world as a convicted felon. Don't count on anything from American voters.
Half of registered voters turned out last year and he won roughly half of that. I fully expect 2026 to be a repeat of 2018.
You can expect it, but I count on nothing from American voters and never will again. I didn't expect them to elect a convicted felon.
I’m an American voter who expected a LOT better from my fellow citizens. And especially the news outlets that were tired of a boring effective Dem and wanted more FDJT drama by sanewashing that man and undermining Biden’s policy accomplishments.
Apparently the price of eggs was worth putting that convicted felon back in office even though prices are going to continue going up.
The Bernie Bros and single issue voters like the Free Palestine movement did not help either.
I think Bernie was fine during the campaign. The rot he's pushed since then is bad, though.
Sorry if this has already been covered, but https://politicalwire.com/2025/01/22/jocelyn-benson-launches-bid-for-michigan-governor/ The Detroit Free Press noted that "“Michigan voters first elected Benson as Secretary of State in 2018 and then again in 2022 by a nearly 14-point margin — the biggest of any of the major statewide races that year." She should be a strong candidate for Governor if Michiganders don't have their heads up their asses and vote for a Republican again.
MI electing another female Democratic Governor back to back would be an interesting sight to see.
This would also give Governor Gretchen Whitmer freedom to chose her next path in her political career should she decide on going further with it (i.e. considering jumping in the 2028 presidential race).