Morning Digest: Alaska conservatives hoping to repeal ranked-choice voting aren't putting up much of a fight

Supporters of the state's unique top-four primary have a huge financial edge

A supporter of ranked-choice voting in Alaska greets a visitor (credit: No on 2 Facebook page)

Leading Off

AK Ballot

Supporters of Alaska's unique top-four primaries and ranked-choice general elections have a massive fundraising advantage in their campaign to save the system, reports the Anchorage Daily News' Sean Maguire.

While conservatives have led the charge to repeal ranked-choice voting by qualifying an initiative called Ballot Measure 2, the main group seeking to defeat the proposal, called No on 2, raised $4.5 million in the month of August. Most of that haul came from a pair of national election reform organizations, Unite America and Action Now Initiative.

By contrast, the opposing side—known, you guessed it, as Yes on 2—has taken in just $60,000 over the entire election cycle. And Phillip Izon, the activist behind the repeal campaign, suggested to Maguire that he has no intention of trying to make up the gap.

"In my opinion, there’s little to no point to doing any marketing or advertising at this point," he said. One longtime conservative operative, Bernadette Wilson, was likewise pessimistic, though she argued that voters would still repeal top-four voting because they “have lived this and experienced this, and they don’t want it."

But there's little evidence that Alaskans are as frustrated with ranked-choice voting as Izon and Wilson are. A survey conducted right after the system was first used in the 2022 special election for the U.S. House instead found that 85% of respondents found the system to be "simple," while 62% said they supported the new method.

No one appears to have released any polls this year asking voters how they feel about doing away with the system this year, but many Republicans blame it as the reason Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola won a special election for the House in 2022. They may not be able to point a finger at ranked-choice voting this time, though, as Peltola secured 51% of the vote in last month’s primary—a feat that would obviate the need for any sort of instant runoff if she’s able to repeat it in November.

The Downballot

The last primaries of the year turn nasty

It wasn't long ago that campaigns would target voters by obtaining printed precinct maps, then literally cut them into pieces so they'd know where to send door-knockers. This week on The Downballot podcast, veteran operative John Hagner explains how he helped voter targeting emerge from the dark ages to become the sophisticated tool it is today. Hagner, the director of business development at the polling firm Civiqs, also shares some surprising insights about how to survey "low-trust" Donald Trump supporters who don't like to answer polls. One simple technique: shorter polls!

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard kick us off by previewing the year's final Democratic primaries in Delaware and New Hampshire, several of which have turned into unexpectedly nasty affairs. But it's looking like Republicans are facing serious headwinds in the Granite State with reports that Trump is pulling out, giving Democrats a strong shot at flipping the governorship. The Davids also zoom in on a House race that's suddenly looking competitive in, of all places, Florida.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. To make sure you never miss an episode, just click the button below:

You can also find a complete transcript here.

Senate

AZ-Sen

The far-right Club for Growth has launched what Politico's Ally Mutnick reports is a $12 million ad buy to help Arizona Republican Kari Lake, a far-right extremist who has struggled to persuade other major outside groups that they should direct money to aid her Senate bid. The first spots from the Club's Win It Back PAC, which are running in English and Spanish, attack Democrat Ruben Gallego on border security and the cost of living.

NE-Sen-A

Nebraska independent Dan Osborn will be Republican Sen. Deb Fischer's sole opponent after the Legal Marijuana NOW Party failed to choose a replacement nominee ahead of Tuesday's deadline. Democrats are also not fielding a candidate, though their decision to stand aside was voluntary.

The Legal Marijuana party, on the other hand, had intended to have a candidate on the ballot, but Air National Guard veteran Kerry Eddy dropped out after winning the tiny party's primary—something she'd pledged to do if it appeared her campaign would undermine Osborn's. (One internal poll for Fischer showed Eddy taking a sizable 9% of the vote.)

The chair of the pro-weed party, Mark Elworth, had promised to put forward an alternative, but he told the Nebraska Examiner's Aaron Sanderford that he decided not to after Eddy and Osborn's backers allegedly threatened to sue. Elworth, who now says he'll vote for Fischer, was even less diplomatic on Facebook.

"Dan Osborn is an asshole," he wrote in a statement shared by the party. "He doesn't care about democracy if he did he wouldn't be messing with other candidates like this." Sanderford writes that some members have also insinuated that Eddy and Osborn's backers "took over their party" to make sure Eddy couldn't be replaced.

P.S. Because Nebraska is hosting two Senate races this year, we're identifying the contest between Fischer and Osborn for a full six-year term as "NE-Sen-A." The special election between appointed Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and Democrat Preston Love will be listed as "NE-Sen-B," though there's considerably less drama in that race.

House

AK-AL

A New Jersey man serving a 20-year sentence for threatening government officials will appear on the general election ballot for Alaska's lone House seat after the candidate who finished fourth in the Aug. 20 top-four primary dropped out just ahead of Monday's deadline.

That departing candidate is Republican Matthew Salisbury, an insurance adjuster who, despite not campaigning, received 652 votes—just enough to sneak into fourth place with 0.6% of the vote. But he dropped out of the race after meeting with businessman Nick Begich, who is now the sole Republican challenging Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in November.

The gathering appeared to go well, as Salisbury said he and Begich "were able to align some of our views," according to the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks. Salisbury specifically cited Begich's opposition to bottom trawling, the practice of dragging fishing nets along the sea floor; after their get-together, Begich released a statement calling for an end to "bottom trawl practices in Alaska that destroy the seabed ecosystem."

(Not long before the primary, Salisbury had harsh words for Begich. "He comes from a place of privilege," he told Brooks, "and how can somebody like that relate to me and the struggle that everyday Alaskans face?")

Salisbury's exit now means that the sixth-place candidate, Eric Hafner, will appear on the general election ballot in his stead. (The fifth-place finisher, John Wayne Howe of the secessionist Alaska Independence Party, previously got bumped up a spot after Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom quit the race following her disappointing third-place showing.)

Hafner took just 467 votes, and like Salisbury, he didn't hit the campaign trail, either—because last year, he was sentenced to 20 years in prison for making threatening phone calls and false bomb threats that targeted a variety of New Jersey officials. Hafner, who has never lived in Alaska, is on the ballot as a Democrat, but he sought a House seat in Hawaii as a Republican in 2016 before running as a Democrat in Oregon two years later.

MI-10

The Democratic firm Global Strategy Group, polling on behalf of House Majority PAC, shows freshman GOP Rep. John James with a small 47-44 edge on Democrat Carl Marlinga in their rematch for Michigan's 10th District. The National Journal, which first reported the mid-August survey, did not mention any presidential numbers for this Macomb County seat, which Donald Trump narrowly carried 50-49 four years ago.

The only other poll we've seen here was conducted in July by Target Insyght for Deadline Detroit and showed Marlinga leading James 49-43. (Target Insyght worked for Marlinga's 2022 campaign.) In 2022, James beat Marlinga by a surprisingly slim 49-48 margin after major Democratic donors and outside groups directed their money elsewhere, so Marlinga is hoping polling will convince those doubters that his new effort is worth their investment.

OR-05

Noble Predictive Insights, polling on behalf of Inside Elections, shows Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum with a small 41-39 edge over freshman GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon's 5th District, which is one of House Democrats' top targets. This survey, which is the first we've seen of the race, also finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 50-42 in a central Oregon constituency that Joe Biden carried by a similar 53-44 spread four years ago.

Ballot Measures

NV Ballot

Nevadans will decide on a proposed constitutional amendment this November that would implement the first-ever top-five primary anywhere in the nation, but the Nevada Independent reports that Question 3's detractors are putting more money toward TV time than its backers. 

Fair Government Nevada PAC, which is urging a "no" vote, has spent or reserved $15 million, compared to $12 million for Vote Yes on 3 PAC. The Independent, though, previously noted that Fair Government Nevada is involved in other ballot measure contests, so it's possible that some of its bookings will be directed toward other issues.

Nevada, like most states, relies on partisan primaries, and it takes just a plurality to win both the nomination and the general election. The Silver State also requires voters to be registered members of the party whose primary they'll be voting in. If Question 3 passes, however, things will dramatically change starting in 2026.

All contenders running for statewide, legislative, and congressional posts would instead face off in a single primary open to all registered voters. The five candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, would move on to a general election that would be decided through ranked-choice voting. 

Alaska is the only state that uses a comparable system, though it caps the number of general election candidates at four. Alaska also requires ranked-choice voting in presidential elections, something the Nevada proposal does not do.

Prior to last week, there had been little ad spending either for or against Question 3, but both campaigns are now working to get their messages before voters. A spot from Yes on 3 complains that there are close to 1 million independent voters who can't take part in either party's primaries under the current system. "That's veterans and teachers, firefighters and hospitality workers all excluded from having a say," declares a narrator.

Yes on 3's ad doesn't mention the ranked-choice component of the plan, but Fair Government Nevada's opening spot focuses on it to warn voters away from supporting the amendment.

"It requires you take the time to rank five candidates, and could throw out your vote if your top choice doesn't make the cut," argues a narrator, who adds that it could lead to more ballots being invalidated because of voter confusion. The Independent points out that voters would not be "required" to rank five candidates.

Uniquely, Nevada law requires voter-initiated amendments to be approved in two successive general elections, but top-five proponents already cleared that initial hurdle in 2022. That year, the proposal passed 53-47 despite opposition from prominent Democrats like then-Gov. Steve Sisolak and Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen. Rep. Mark Amodei, who remains the state's only Republican member of Congress, also unsuccessfully urged a "no" vote.

But while GOP politicians across the nation regularly demonize ranked-choice voting, Nevada's most prominent Republican has yet to weigh in. Gov. Joe Lombardo, who unseated Sisolak in 2022, avoided answering when the Independent asked about his stance two years ago, and he still doesn't appear to have taken a side ahead of this second and final vote.

Attorneys General

VA-AG

Former Del. Jay Jones has filed paperwork with the state for a long-anticipated second bid for attorney general of Virginia in 2025. Jones has not yet confirmed he's running, though, and his staff told 13 News Now's Christopher Collette on Monday that he wouldn't announce anything until this year's elections are over. 

Jones would join Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor, who launched her campaign in June, in the Democratic primary for the post currently held by Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares. Miyares has also indicated that he'll wait until after the November election to decide whether he'll run to succeed termed-out Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin or seek a second term in his current office.

Jones, who would be the state's first Black attorney general, first ran for this post in 2021 when he challenged two-term incumbent Mark Herring in the Democratic primary. Jones, who had the support of then-Gov. Ralph Northam, lost to Herring 57-43; Herring in turn lost in an upset to Miyares by a tight 50.4 to 49.6 margin.

Jones announced at the end of 2021 that he'd resign from the legislature even though he'd just won another term (Virginia allows candidates to seek two offices simultaneously), but he left open the possibility that he could wage another bid for attorney general. Northam, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, and Fairfax County Commonwealth's Attorney Steve Descano have all publicly called for Jones to run again, and his decision to file signals that they'll get their wish before long.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Maricopa County, AZ

Noble Predictive Insights gives us our first look at the key races in Maricopa County, which is home to three out of five Arizonans and perhaps one of the longest ballots anywhere in the country:

• County Assessor: Gregory Freeman (D): 36, Eddie Cook (R-inc): 33

• County Attorney: Rachel Mitchell (R-inc): 37, Tamika Wooten (D): 35

• County Sheriff: Tyler Kamp (D): 35, Jerry Sheridan (R): 35

• County Recorder: Tim Stringham (D): 38, Justin Heap (R): 34

Respondents favor Kamala Harris 46-43, while Democratic Senate nominee Ruben Gallego enjoys a wide 50-38 advantage here over Republican Kari Lake. Joe Biden's 50-48 victory in 2020 made him the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Maricopa County since Harry Truman in 1948.

The race for recorder attracted national attention in late July when Heap, a state representative who belongs to the state's branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, defeated incumbent Stephen Richer 42-36 in the GOP primary.

Richer used his position as election administrator for Arizona's largest county to push back on lies about the 2020 and 2022 elections, a stance that made him a pariah with his party's base. Heap, by contrast, has promoted legislation supported by conspiracy theorists, though he's avoided statements expressing direct support for election denialism.

Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to recapture the sheriff's office eight years after Democrat Paul Penzone ended Joe Arpaio's notorious decades-long reign. Penzone resigned earlier this year to take a job in the private sector, allowing the GOP majority on the county Board of Supervisors to appoint his top deputy, Russ Skinner, in his place. But Kamp, who reminded Democratic primary voters that Skinner had also served under Arpaio, defeated the new sheriff 56-44 earlier this year. 

Sheridan, for his part, was once right-hand man to Arpaio, but the two came into conflict in 2020 when Sheridan thwarted Arpaio's comeback attempt by narrowly defeating him in the GOP primary for sheriff. Sheridan went on to lose to Penzone in a 56-44 landslide, and Arpaio unsuccessfully supported a rival candidate in this year's primary.

Other Races

WA Land Commissioner

Washington Democrats definitively learned Wednesday that they'd have a candidate in the general election for land commissioner after election officials certified the recount of the Aug. 6 top-two primary, which showed Dave Upthegrove clinching the important second-place spot by all of 49 votes.

Upthegrove initially led Sue Kuehl Pederson, who was the 2020 GOP nominee for this office, by a slightly larger 51 spread in what Secretary of State Steve Hobbs says was the closest statewide primary in Washington history.

Former GOP Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler ultimately finished with 22% while Upthegrove, who chairs the King County Council, took 20.824% of the vote—three-thousandths of a percentage point ahead of Kuehl Pederson. The five Democrats on the ballot took a combined 57% compared to the 43% that Herrera Beutler and Pederson notched, but the larger bloc of left-leaning voters was so divided that the party came perilously close to being locked out of the general election in this blue state.

Upthegrove, though, is now favored to defeat Herrera Beutler in the contest to succeed Democratic incumbent Hilary Franz, who unsuccessfully sought the open 6th Congressional District. Still, Herrera Beutler's allies hope that her vote to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 riot, as well as her month-long head start over Upthegrove, will give her the chance to pull off an upset in a state where Democrats control every statewide office.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Ruben Gallego (D): 47, Kari Lake (R): 44 (49-44 Trump)

• MD-Sen: Gonzales Research: Angela Alsobrooks (D): 46, Larry Hogan (R): 41 (56-35 Harris)

• MI-Sen: Glengariff Group for the Detroit News and WDIV: Elissa Slotkin (D): 44, Mike Rogers (R): 35 (45-44 Trump) (July: 46-41 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: SSRS: Slotkin (D): 47, Rogers (R): 41 (48-43 Harris)

• MN-Sen: SurveyUSA for KSTP, KAAL, and WDIO: Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 50, Royce White (R): 36 (48-43 Harris) (July: 55-33 Klobuchar)

• NV-Sen: SSRS: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 50, Sam Brown (R): 40 (48-47 Harris)

• PA-Sen: SSRS: Bob Casey (D-inc): 46, Dave McCormick (R): 46 (47-47 presidential tie)

• WI-Sen: SSRS: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Eric Hovde (R): 45 (50-44 Harris)

• WA-Gov: Cygnal (R): Bob Ferguson (D): 48, Dave Reichert (R): 45

• AZ Ballot: SSRS: Abortion Amendment: Yes: 62, No: 35

Ad Roundup

• NV-Sen: NRSC - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc) (here and here)

• WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) - anti-Eric Hovde (R); Hovde - anti-Baldwin (here, here, here, and here)

• CA-27: George Whitesides (D) (in English and Spanish)

• CA-45: Derek Tran (D) - anti-Michelle Steel (R-inc)

• CA-47: Dave Min (D) - anti-Scott Baugh (R)

• IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc)

• IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D-inc)

• KS-03: Sharice Davids (D-inc)

• MI-03: Hillary Scholten (D-inc)

• NE-02: Don Bacon (R-inc) (here and here); Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Tony Vargas (D)

• NJ-07: Tom Kean (R-inc)

• NV-01: Dina Titus (D-inc) - anti-Mark Robertson (R)

• NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc)

• NY-19: DCCC - anti-Marc Molinaro (R-inc)

• NY-22: Brandon Williams (R-inc) and the NRCC

• OH-09: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)

• WI-01: Peter Barca (D) - anti-Bryan Steil (R-inc)