I think Georgia elects a non controversial Democrat if Trump is as bad as I suspect (his first 2 days tell me that his entire 2nd term will be nothing but chaos; I think Georgia voters will become simply exhausted by election day 2026)
I think Brian Kemp is perceived as being conservative, yet sane(voters in a state that elected Warnock and Ossoff are not going to elect too crazy of candidate statewide for Governor)
Tying into the podcast on Lt. Governors and MI-Gov. For Michigan the NGLA says Lt. Governors in MI are "elected by party convention after the primary" maybe that can be used to get Duggan out of the way as much as rewarding his run irks me.
The last time an outparty incumbent Governor lost was 2014. With that background putting AZ in tossup is not justifiable. Hobbs even has positive job approval. Lean D for me.
With Duggan running as an independent, toss up is fine. Duggan has very real spoiler potential for dems.
NV-GOV is lean R for me. Lombardo is popular and the trends in NV are not good.
WI-Gov is also lean D. Evers would start out as the clear favorite. Even without him abortion is a huge bonus for any democratic candidate here. The state even trended left in 2024.
VA-GOV is lean D for me. About the only thing republicans have going for them is Youngkin being popular. And that rarely transfers to a new candidate.
Dems have the lean of the state on their side. There are decades of the outparty winning VA-GOV.
Spanberger is the better candidate. Carefully crafted moderate image. She worked on bi-partisan legislation . Voted against Pelosi and attacked the left over defunding the police.
She has outraised Sears and lead the limited polling we have seen so far.
Meanwhile Sears has quite conservative social views that are a liability. No high-profile breaks from her party. Neither has she shown that she can talk convincly about her stances on social issues.
an unnecessary quibble; the off year election will be a different electoral universe of voters than the Presidential anyways; if Trump is as bad as advertised, the Democratic party will win almost all marginal races(with normal candidates running)
That’s a weird way to look at trends but okay. It voted more Republican than last time but less so than the nation so it trended left. I mean, based off the results from 2020 to 2024, the state went more Republican but okay.
On Arizona, I disagree. I would classify it as tossup because the lean will be dependent on what happens in the Republican primary.
The two current expected R candidates are Karrin Taylor Robson and Andy Biggs. Trump currently is backing Taylor Robson.
If Taylor Robson is the R candidate, I would put Arizona as lean R. If Biggs wins, I could suggest it's tossup to lean D. Taylor Robson is well liked by moderates. Biggs is a right wing nut, but he isn't viewed as negatively as Lake was.
Hobbs is much better at being governor than running for the position. My prediction, as usual in Arizona, it'll be close.
The last time an incumbent outparty governor lost was 2014. The last poll had her job approval at +5. With republicans controlling the legislature there isn't any unpopular legislation she has signed.
Outparty governors have won in much tougher states then the light red AZ. I just don't see why Hobbs is suddenly the incumbent that underperforms these historical patterns.
I can’t complain about tossups this early on, especially in competitive states, given we don’t know who will be running (not even all the incumbents who can run again necessarily will) or what the main issues or state or national political environments will be.
2026 will be decided by two thins only: 1) How bad (or not bad) Trump is in his second term, and 2) What Trump & Co have managed to do to subvert the electoral process, at the state level and nationally.
Canada 2025 election. One poll shows a big shift since Trudeau stepped down. Conservative lead down to 7 points. An early election, probably May, would now benefit the Liberals.
"While the Conservatives would no doubt win the most seats if an election were held tomorrow, it is unlikely they would form a majority government given the renewed Liberal support in Ontario."
I’d wait to see more polls showing a low double digits/high single digit lead for the Tories before assuming a trend. But, Pierre has handled the last month really poorly; his whole campaign was predicated on being “not Trudeau” and Trump has messed with his best laid plans
In related news, Doug Ford could soon call a snap election in Ontario now that he’s the face of Canadian pushback…
I think trudeau just went past his sell date; I am not convinced that the conservative alternative is very appealing; if anything, maybe a lot of voters just decide to stay home(if Biden voters would not have stayed home, Kamala Harris wins)
That would still result in a Tory Prime Minister though. Only ONCE did Stephen Harper receive a majority government (in 2011). Ironically it was after that government that his Conservative Party lost the government to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in 2015. And THAT new government ended up being Trudeau's sole majority government.
Perhaps Jocelyn Benson ought to point out that all conspiracy theories are invented by the Deep State – to prevent people from finding out what is *really* going on.
I would attribute these shifts to ancestral Democrats—especially in Appalachian areas—who were already voting Republican, but lagging behind on actually changing their registration status. That was undoubtedly still a factor, but in retrospect probably an overrated one.
These numbers highlight how Trump’s registration gains were made up of two distinct phases. The initial phase took place during his first campaign, when Trump won over Southwest residents and saw a surge of support in rural areas. In the second phase, which began during the 2020 cycle and continued on into 2024, the Trump campaign targeted traditional non-voters, particularly non-white young men, in cities like Allentown, Bethlehem, Lehigh, Philadelphia, and Wilkes-Barre.
In 2024 registered Republicans outvoted registered Democrats in an even-year general election for the first time in Pennsylvania’s history.
My usual commentary on Pennsylvania partisan voter reg: sure, the state has gone from a 12 point Dem edge to just a 2 point Dem edge in the past decade. Does the state actually seem 10 points redder than 2015 though? Compared to Trump's first win, the state only moved a single point to the right, and this coincided with the national popular vote moving 3.5 points to the right. Indeed many other states got far redder in the past decade than PA, including NY and NJ, which did so without any substantial surge in GOP voter registration. As always, I think partisan voter reg is a lagging indicator, just a small part of the story. A lot of attention was placed on FL voter reg the past few years, but amazingly its resulting red shift was almost matched by MA of all states (which retains its lopsided Dem voter reg)...
In Michigan, I would 100% support Jocelyn Benson for Governor, her landslide 56% - 42% win for 2nd and final term as Secretary of State in 2022 makes her by far the most formidable possible candidate. If she picks AG Dana Nessel as her running mate, it will be an epic ticket!!
P.S. I want Sen. Gary Peters to retire and let Gov. Gretchen Whitmer run hard to keep the seat blue. In 2020, he UNDERPERFORMED Biden and almost lost reelection, he isn't strong enough!! 💙🇺🇲
Campaigns for that other office would be starting right after the midterms. They are not occurring in the same year but the timing does not work well for someone who already has a high enough perch to make a credible run.
She has on multiple occasions shut down chatter about running for POTUS in that she's not looking to do it. I believe this is because she was mainly interested in being dedicated for being Governor of MI. I just don't see her to have enough of an ego to want to be POTUS to begin with.
Is it worth muddying her Presidential ambitions by giving her a Senate record to defend? As opposed to being the "Washington outsider from the Midwest" that she can sell herself as now?
In the Senate you have to vote for all kinds of stuff that can be controversial and might hurt in a presidential race. That goes for Senators of both parties.
True, Senators have more acquaintance with foreign policy and other national issues, but governors do have an advantage in that they can run on their record of getting things done as executives and of not being part of the "mess in Washington" when the federal government is unpopular--which recently it almost always is. Plus Whitmer can boast of running a large, competitive state with both supportive and opposing legislatures.
Bill Clinton was the last real outsider Democratic Presidential Nominee who served as POTUS after having been Governor.
Although 1992 was a much different and by contrast more civil political environment, Clinton had the advantage of being an outsider. There was very little that Bush Sr. was able to do other than do mudslinging at Clinton. Even the mudslinging that Clinton had to deal with was nothing compared to what John Kerry had to withstand. Him being Governor of Arkansas helped him, particularly in the South.
I think we need more outsiders and less insiders in the Democratic Party running for office.
If she wants to run for President yeah avoid the Senate, plus there really isn't an opening? I don't see Gary Peters retiring and Slotkin just got elected.
Peters was the only freshman Senate Dem elected that year. He underperformed against John James in 2020, but James, while in the House now, hasn't been a particularly great vote winner himself and indeed could be vulnerable in 2026 (maybe he tries for a Senate rematch if in serious danger of losing his House seat?)
That doesn't mean that Peters is particularly weak or should be dumped, especially when he may well be helped by national trends.
John James won re-election by a wider margin against the same Democratic challenger he had in 2022, Carl Marlinga. If there's any chance to unseat him, 2026 is right now the best shot.
I'm sure someone else besides Marlinga will emerge as a Democratic challenger.
Unfortunately having the lesbian Nessel on the ticket is probably not right for the current moment. I think the backlash toward anything that might be lumped into the "DEI" category is real.
You do realize that Trump has just appointed an openly gay man as his Treasury Secretary? Scott Bessent is married to John Freeman, a New York prosecutor. Just like Pete Buggieg and his husband, Bessent & Freeman have two children.
– Ric Grenell, 58, presidential envoy for special missions. He was Trump’s Director of National Intelligence during his first term.
– Tammy Bruce, 62, the new State Department Spokesperson was a Fox News contributor.
– Jacob Helberg, 35, Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment.
– Bill White, 57, Ambassador to Belgium.
– Art Fisher, 49, Ambassador to Austria.
PS. Peter Thiel, of whom JD Vance has long been a protégé, is another prominent right-wing gay man. Thiel’s company Palantir earns its wealth primarily from government contracts. I very much doubt Trump is going to change that.
We do not win by surrendering to conservative ideology. If we avoid any candidate that could be called "DEI" then that requires us to only go with straight white men.
Look, I'm not going to say that there are no opportunities to moderate and win more voters on various issues. Whether that's worth it is a complex discussion. What I am saying is that voluntarily removing all elements of diversity from our tickets to appease conservatives will not help us in the slightest and will in fact harm us.
Baldwin winning in a Trump won-swing state in probably what was the "peak woke backlash"national environment shows sexual orientation isn't really an issue.
No, it doesn't show that. It shows that voters are willing to vote for what they consider a "good" LGB candidate downballot, and notice I left off the T, because trans people are a designated target for bullying right now.
I agree with you, but unfortunately, it's clear that feminist women are not yet going to win a presidential election in the U.S. That may change if one is running during a near-depression, the way Obama won in 2008.
I've told this story before, but I'm going to repeat it now. After Senator Obama won the Iowa caucuses, I asked my father what he thought of him. He said white people are too racist to elect a Black man for president, and he knew that because he remembered how things were in Baton Rouge when he was Artist in Residence at LSU from 1966-67 and didn't think their attitudes had really changed. I asked him again after Senator Obama won the New Hampshire primary. His answer hadn't changed. So I asked him: "When New York has its primary, who will you vote for?" And he answered "Obama, of course! Because if I do anything else, I'd be letting the racists control me." He didn't believe Obama would really win until Ohio was called on Election Day, but he didn't let that determine his vote. And if the American voters want to continue destroying the country due to bigotry, that's on them, but we must never vote against a candidate because of what they are, rather than how qualified, wise and judicious they are.
Does South Carolina law permit Nancy Mace to run simultaneously for governor and to keep her House seat? Removing her from federal office would surely be a boon to the nation.
Hi David and Jeff, thanks for all you do, I do have a request. I was wondering since you guys have covered the health issues of the now-deceased Rep Pascrell, Rep Evans and now Rep Scott, if you guys would consider making an issue or two about the age issue facing Democrats in Congress, since they are supposed to be the “party for young people and working families”. I believe both liberals and progressives are fed up with the leadership of the party and truly want change, and that requires retirements, especially with how many members have had health scares. Could you imagine if we had the 3 seat majority right now? That would mean that the majority would hinge on Cuellar’s trial, and our older members not kicking the bucket, especially since the past couple Congress’s have been some of our oldest yet, and many members towards the top of the age list are Democrats in safe blue seats. We must be proactive in case of a future majority of 10 seats or less. The longer they stay in, the higher of a chance of catastrophe of many members unfortunately dying while in office around the same time. But if you guys decide to cover other things, I totally understand.
May I suggest that coverage of The Geriatric Challenge be bipartisan – the obvious problem of old Democrats, plus the opportunities raised by old Republican legislators?
A federal judge said Thursday that President Donald Trump’s executive order ending birthright citizenship was “blatantly unconstitutional,” and that he was issuing a temporary restraining order to block it,
That "the party left me" line is wearing pretty thin, don't you think? If Nancy Mace would have to give up her House seat to run for governor, I'd be tempted to contribute to her campaign. At least it would confine her damage to SC, which gets what it deserves, and get her out of the [DC] Capitol.
The party is happy to leave a corrupt and rather incompetent incumbent who constantly flirts with the other party and is probably hoping for Donald Trump to bail him out, legally if not politically.
But he hasn't left the party yet? Other than the corruption charges, my biggest gripe with him is his kvetching over crime (from violent crimes down to fare evasion) without doing anything of note about it. 1990s Giuliani did do something about it, even if he focused on the superficial side (e.g. the "broken windows" theory). Did they weaken the mayor's powers since then or something?
Eric Adams is not Ronald Reagan. He flip-flopped on Stop and Frisk by being for it during the 2021 Mayoral Race while being staunchly against it and campaigning to end it for a long time before the race.
Adams is full of crap. He left the Democratic Party without even changing his voter registration. Going on Tucker Carlson isn't going to help Adams fight ongoing criminal investigation into potential bribery.
Something stinks to high hell with this whole Trump admin pledging to spend $500 billion for AI infrastructure. Despite what all the doomers and true believers and the tech bros claim, I strongly doubt it's about some AI arms race to "AGI" or "superintelligence." More likely it's an effort to leverage Big Tech influence over governments with powerful, but nonetheless still very limited technologies. The tradeoff for governments? Having access to this tech and contracts for themselves and selling or claiming the data and ability to monitor and influence all citizens they want. This is Cambridge Analytica in 2016 on steroids. If the tech bros aren't careful, they may end up getting gobbled up by more hostile governments like Trump's. Amazon and Bezos are right to be on edge.
It’s also grift. How much do you think will flow to Musk’s AI venture, and to AI companies owned by billionaires who supported Trump or are now bending the knee to him?
I find it terrifying that Trump is now in charge of America’s many intelligence agencies as well as our military. He’ll soon be repurposing both.
Musk already seems to be calling out Altman and others involved in the Stargate project, calling it a fraud by claiming OpenAI lacks the money for the project. Seems like Musk has many bridges to still burn and more enemies to wage his petty fights with.
Musk is actually more correct than not on this one . . . the reporting on this announcement was terrible. It's not federal money; it's simply a "pledge" by these companies to spend that much over an indefinite amount of time. At most a quarter of it will come to fruition. Softbank in particular is notorious for making splashy announcements which don't end up happening.
I don't even trust Microsoft anymore. With Windows 11 there's so much bloatware including their COpilot chatbot that constantly spies on you and collects your data. If I ever do get Windows 11 it will be strictly for work. I may have to learn and switch to Linux. I won't play long with this Robocop/Bladerunner dystopia these tech bros want.
Yeah, people were calling it a Trump plan when it was just the companies trying to get more attention when they announced their intention to do something that they would have done regardless of how the election went. Musk, of course, denounced it because these companies are his competitors.
However, I should point out Ellison was flat out staying AI can develop cancer vaccines as opposed to simply stating that AI can help substantially with medical research.
Research can uncover many things but developing vaccines for cancer is the great unknown. We don’t yet know what will be uncovered from medical research, even with AI. Even with medical science, changes happen in a regular basis that not even AI can predict or calculate.
Until an actual vaccine is developed, Ellison & Co are being delusional.
I just don’t understand why NY and NYC suck so bad. My entire adult life I’ve been politically aware and the most glaring problem has always been the New York Democratic Party. I thought they’d be all flowers and rainbows when Spitzer won but turns out, I had no idea what was happening over there.
I’m also not asking for an explanation bc I do get it. It’s just like fuuuuuuuuccccckkkkkkk. People working together shouldn’t be so hard! We all act up in the office sometimes but come on, this is politics. Act up for the cameras but get the shit done.
"The escalating bird flu crisis is ravaging the nation's supply of eggs, leading to increased prices and presenting an immediate challenge for the Trump administration.
Why it matters: An outbreak of avian influenza is growing and has affected nearly 13 million birds in the last 30 days, according to USDA data."
I honestly don't think people are going to care too much. While "economic anxiety" is certainly a bigger thing now than it actually was 8 years ago, it's being exaggerated
Mostly tongue and cheek since it's January 2025 but I think there is some merit to being just as relentless "he owns it" hammering of inflation, the economy and the likely stupid trade war etc. We can't just throw up our hands and say nothing matters.
A lot of what did that was racism, sexism, xenophobia and transphobia. But yes, inflation played a role. Don't think Trump's supporters judge the economy the same way when he's in office, though; we know they don't.
More specifically: anxiety over the vibe economy, which Trump, Republicans and the mainstream infotainment news media had been shit-talking ever since President Biden was sworn into office.
I would be interested to see how Trump's executive order requiring federal employees to come back to the office will impact the VA-GOV race. On the one hand, Winsome-Sears may be pro-Right to Work but on the other, she may have to defend her view on remote work and how it impacts families.
I know at least in and around NoVA, there are lots of federal govt. employees. Pentagon is right in Arlington.
McAuliffe & Northam were the 2 most recent Democrats as Governor. How did they navigate this; can there be compromise to keep both sides happy and still get her elected? 💙🇺🇲
Gov. Ned Lamont has had pretty high approvals since COVID and won easily in 2022 (56% - 43%).
Erin Stewart's only chance of becoming a Republican elected Governor in a state as blue as Connecticut would be if the Democratic nominee cratered through some kind of scandal, very unlikely. If he seeks a 3rd term and maintains strong approvals, she has a VERY uphill climb!! 💙🇺🇲
Cook 2025-2026 governor ratings:
The following races start in Toss Up: #AZGOV, #MIGOV, #WIGOV, #GAGOV, #NVGOV, #VAGOV (2025).
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings
Any ideas woi the candidates in Kansas will be?
Cant quibble with any of those choices
I would move GA Gov to lean R and MI Gov to lean D.
Fair
I think Georgia elects a non controversial Democrat if Trump is as bad as I suspect (his first 2 days tell me that his entire 2nd term will be nothing but chaos; I think Georgia voters will become simply exhausted by election day 2026)
Georgia has a sneakily high number of federal employees, and they are all PISSED at the Trump Administration right now for killing off all telework.
I think Brian Kemp is perceived as being conservative, yet sane(voters in a state that elected Warnock and Ossoff are not going to elect too crazy of candidate statewide for Governor)
Duggan remains the wildcard in MI. If he takes a quarter or more of the vote in Detroit that is problematic.
Tying into the podcast on Lt. Governors and MI-Gov. For Michigan the NGLA says Lt. Governors in MI are "elected by party convention after the primary" maybe that can be used to get Duggan out of the way as much as rewarding his run irks me.
as an independent, he's just a spoiler; cut an acceptable deal with the dude(if his price is reasonable)
How easily can Duggan get on the ballot in Michigan, i Imagine repugs will be helping him.
As usual cook puts way too many races in toss-up.
The last time an outparty incumbent Governor lost was 2014. With that background putting AZ in tossup is not justifiable. Hobbs even has positive job approval. Lean D for me.
With Duggan running as an independent, toss up is fine. Duggan has very real spoiler potential for dems.
NV-GOV is lean R for me. Lombardo is popular and the trends in NV are not good.
WI-Gov is also lean D. Evers would start out as the clear favorite. Even without him abortion is a huge bonus for any democratic candidate here. The state even trended left in 2024.
VA-GOV is lean D for me. About the only thing republicans have going for them is Youngkin being popular. And that rarely transfers to a new candidate.
Dems have the lean of the state on their side. There are decades of the outparty winning VA-GOV.
Spanberger is the better candidate. Carefully crafted moderate image. She worked on bi-partisan legislation . Voted against Pelosi and attacked the left over defunding the police.
She has outraised Sears and lead the limited polling we have seen so far.
Meanwhile Sears has quite conservative social views that are a liability. No high-profile breaks from her party. Neither has she shown that she can talk convincly about her stances on social issues.
WI trended left in '24? From 20,682D in '20 to 29,937R in '24 is trending left? How so?
Trend is always relative to the nation. WI only moved right 1.5 points while the nation moved 6 points to the right.
Despite the loss Wisconsin moving left relative to the country was one of the few nice surprises from that awful night. Would've not predicted that.
OK, but...no.
Trended less right, yes.
Trended left, no.
A 50,000 vote move to the right is in no sense a trend to the left.
an unnecessary quibble; the off year election will be a different electoral universe of voters than the Presidential anyways; if Trump is as bad as advertised, the Democratic party will win almost all marginal races(with normal candidates running)
That’s a weird way to look at trends but okay. It voted more Republican than last time but less so than the nation so it trended left. I mean, based off the results from 2020 to 2024, the state went more Republican but okay.
On Arizona, I disagree. I would classify it as tossup because the lean will be dependent on what happens in the Republican primary.
The two current expected R candidates are Karrin Taylor Robson and Andy Biggs. Trump currently is backing Taylor Robson.
If Taylor Robson is the R candidate, I would put Arizona as lean R. If Biggs wins, I could suggest it's tossup to lean D. Taylor Robson is well liked by moderates. Biggs is a right wing nut, but he isn't viewed as negatively as Lake was.
Hobbs is much better at being governor than running for the position. My prediction, as usual in Arizona, it'll be close.
The last time an incumbent outparty governor lost was 2014. The last poll had her job approval at +5. With republicans controlling the legislature there isn't any unpopular legislation she has signed.
Outparty governors have won in much tougher states then the light red AZ. I just don't see why Hobbs is suddenly the incumbent that underperforms these historical patterns.
Agreed completely; Trump will become Hobbs best vote getter
I can’t complain about tossups this early on, especially in competitive states, given we don’t know who will be running (not even all the incumbents who can run again necessarily will) or what the main issues or state or national political environments will be.
2026 will be decided by 1 thing only; how bad(or not so bad) is the second term of Donald Trump
2026 will be decided by two thins only: 1) How bad (or not bad) Trump is in his second term, and 2) What Trump & Co have managed to do to subvert the electoral process, at the state level and nationally.
Canada 2025 election. One poll shows a big shift since Trudeau stepped down. Conservative lead down to 7 points. An early election, probably May, would now benefit the Liberals.
"While the Conservatives would no doubt win the most seats if an election were held tomorrow, it is unlikely they would form a majority government given the renewed Liberal support in Ontario."
https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/01/liberals-break-30-points-following-trump-inauguration/
I’d wait to see more polls showing a low double digits/high single digit lead for the Tories before assuming a trend. But, Pierre has handled the last month really poorly; his whole campaign was predicated on being “not Trudeau” and Trump has messed with his best laid plans
In related news, Doug Ford could soon call a snap election in Ontario now that he’s the face of Canadian pushback…
That's another factor that could work against the Conservatives nationally.
The premier of Alberta getting checked by Ford for being weak-kneed about Trump was interesting.
If only the left wasn't so weak in Alberta outside Edmonton and some parts of Calgary............
I think trudeau just went past his sell date; I am not convinced that the conservative alternative is very appealing; if anything, maybe a lot of voters just decide to stay home(if Biden voters would not have stayed home, Kamala Harris wins)
That would still result in a Tory Prime Minister though. Only ONCE did Stephen Harper receive a majority government (in 2011). Ironically it was after that government that his Conservative Party lost the government to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in 2015. And THAT new government ended up being Trudeau's sole majority government.
Yes. But a minority government. With all other parties ideologically separate from the Conservatives.
Perhaps Jocelyn Benson ought to point out that all conspiracy theories are invented by the Deep State – to prevent people from finding out what is *really* going on.
/s
PA:
I would attribute these shifts to ancestral Democrats—especially in Appalachian areas—who were already voting Republican, but lagging behind on actually changing their registration status. That was undoubtedly still a factor, but in retrospect probably an overrated one.
These numbers highlight how Trump’s registration gains were made up of two distinct phases. The initial phase took place during his first campaign, when Trump won over Southwest residents and saw a surge of support in rural areas. In the second phase, which began during the 2020 cycle and continued on into 2024, the Trump campaign targeted traditional non-voters, particularly non-white young men, in cities like Allentown, Bethlehem, Lehigh, Philadelphia, and Wilkes-Barre.
In 2024 registered Republicans outvoted registered Democrats in an even-year general election for the first time in Pennsylvania’s history.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/how-donald-trump-changed-pennsylvanias-electorate-tracking-voter-registration-trends-over-the-past-decade/
My usual commentary on Pennsylvania partisan voter reg: sure, the state has gone from a 12 point Dem edge to just a 2 point Dem edge in the past decade. Does the state actually seem 10 points redder than 2015 though? Compared to Trump's first win, the state only moved a single point to the right, and this coincided with the national popular vote moving 3.5 points to the right. Indeed many other states got far redder in the past decade than PA, including NY and NJ, which did so without any substantial surge in GOP voter registration. As always, I think partisan voter reg is a lagging indicator, just a small part of the story. A lot of attention was placed on FL voter reg the past few years, but amazingly its resulting red shift was almost matched by MA of all states (which retains its lopsided Dem voter reg)...
In Michigan, I would 100% support Jocelyn Benson for Governor, her landslide 56% - 42% win for 2nd and final term as Secretary of State in 2022 makes her by far the most formidable possible candidate. If she picks AG Dana Nessel as her running mate, it will be an epic ticket!!
P.S. I want Sen. Gary Peters to retire and let Gov. Gretchen Whitmer run hard to keep the seat blue. In 2020, he UNDERPERFORMED Biden and almost lost reelection, he isn't strong enough!! 💙🇺🇲
Gretchen Whitmer would make a formidable senator! Right now, Democrats have all too many representatives whose voices are soft or silent.
I certainly agree with the last part.
Whitmer should be our nominee for President.
I am fond of the idea but that's not a topic we should go into here.
A way to get at the same idea while staying within permissive topics: she's unlikely to run for senate in 2026 due to having conflicting ambitions.
I cannot imagine her primarying Peters for that matter, and there's no reasons I know of to expect him to retire, either.
she's running for 1 office and that office is not up in 2026
Campaigns for that other office would be starting right after the midterms. They are not occurring in the same year but the timing does not work well for someone who already has a high enough perch to make a credible run.
I'll give credit for Whitmer:
She has on multiple occasions shut down chatter about running for POTUS in that she's not looking to do it. I believe this is because she was mainly interested in being dedicated for being Governor of MI. I just don't see her to have enough of an ego to want to be POTUS to begin with.
I'll just say in general I hope we have at least one spot on the ticket reserved for someone from MI, PA or WI and leave it at that.
Is it worth muddying her Presidential ambitions by giving her a Senate record to defend? As opposed to being the "Washington outsider from the Midwest" that she can sell herself as now?
Why do you assume Whitmer would become muddied by serving as a senator?
In the Senate you have to vote for all kinds of stuff that can be controversial and might hurt in a presidential race. That goes for Senators of both parties.
True, Senators have more acquaintance with foreign policy and other national issues, but governors do have an advantage in that they can run on their record of getting things done as executives and of not being part of the "mess in Washington" when the federal government is unpopular--which recently it almost always is. Plus Whitmer can boast of running a large, competitive state with both supportive and opposing legislatures.
I’ll buy that. Makes a lot of sense.
Bill Clinton was the last real outsider Democratic Presidential Nominee who served as POTUS after having been Governor.
Although 1992 was a much different and by contrast more civil political environment, Clinton had the advantage of being an outsider. There was very little that Bush Sr. was able to do other than do mudslinging at Clinton. Even the mudslinging that Clinton had to deal with was nothing compared to what John Kerry had to withstand. Him being Governor of Arkansas helped him, particularly in the South.
I think we need more outsiders and less insiders in the Democratic Party running for office.
she's not running for Senate
If she wants to run for President yeah avoid the Senate, plus there really isn't an opening? I don't see Gary Peters retiring and Slotkin just got elected.
Peters had a landslide himself in 2014 of all years.
Mainly because his opponent was weak and melted down in front of the media.
Right but that wouldn't matter in the Trump era. 2014 was the last election cycle where a swing-state landslide was possible in a federal race.
Peters was the only freshman Senate Dem elected that year. He underperformed against John James in 2020, but James, while in the House now, hasn't been a particularly great vote winner himself and indeed could be vulnerable in 2026 (maybe he tries for a Senate rematch if in serious danger of losing his House seat?)
That doesn't mean that Peters is particularly weak or should be dumped, especially when he may well be helped by national trends.
John James won re-election by a wider margin against the same Democratic challenger he had in 2022, Carl Marlinga. If there's any chance to unseat him, 2026 is right now the best shot.
I'm sure someone else besides Marlinga will emerge as a Democratic challenger.
Unfortunately having the lesbian Nessel on the ticket is probably not right for the current moment. I think the backlash toward anything that might be lumped into the "DEI" category is real.
You do realize that Trump has just appointed an openly gay man as his Treasury Secretary? Scott Bessent is married to John Freeman, a New York prosecutor. Just like Pete Buggieg and his husband, Bessent & Freeman have two children.
Other openly gay Trump appointees include:
– Ric Grenell, 58, presidential envoy for special missions. He was Trump’s Director of National Intelligence during his first term.
– Tammy Bruce, 62, the new State Department Spokesperson was a Fox News contributor.
– Jacob Helberg, 35, Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment.
– Bill White, 57, Ambassador to Belgium.
– Art Fisher, 49, Ambassador to Austria.
PS. Peter Thiel, of whom JD Vance has long been a protégé, is another prominent right-wing gay man. Thiel’s company Palantir earns its wealth primarily from government contracts. I very much doubt Trump is going to change that.
IOKIYAR
We do not win by surrendering to conservative ideology. If we avoid any candidate that could be called "DEI" then that requires us to only go with straight white men.
Look, I'm not going to say that there are no opportunities to moderate and win more voters on various issues. Whether that's worth it is a complex discussion. What I am saying is that voluntarily removing all elements of diversity from our tickets to appease conservatives will not help us in the slightest and will in fact harm us.
Baldwin winning in a Trump won-swing state in probably what was the "peak woke backlash"national environment shows sexual orientation isn't really an issue.
No, it doesn't show that. It shows that voters are willing to vote for what they consider a "good" LGB candidate downballot, and notice I left off the T, because trans people are a designated target for bullying right now.
Baldwin was an exceptionally good campaigner and now is entrenched for life(if that's her ambition)
Baldwin was an exceptionally good campaigner and now is entrenched for life(if that's her ambition)
I hope this is never a reason for any democratic slate to be altered; fuck the Republicans and their bigotry
I agree with you, but unfortunately, it's clear that feminist women are not yet going to win a presidential election in the U.S. That may change if one is running during a near-depression, the way Obama won in 2008.
I've told this story before, but I'm going to repeat it now. After Senator Obama won the Iowa caucuses, I asked my father what he thought of him. He said white people are too racist to elect a Black man for president, and he knew that because he remembered how things were in Baton Rouge when he was Artist in Residence at LSU from 1966-67 and didn't think their attitudes had really changed. I asked him again after Senator Obama won the New Hampshire primary. His answer hadn't changed. So I asked him: "When New York has its primary, who will you vote for?" And he answered "Obama, of course! Because if I do anything else, I'd be letting the racists control me." He didn't believe Obama would really win until Ohio was called on Election Day, but he didn't let that determine his vote. And if the American voters want to continue destroying the country due to bigotry, that's on them, but we must never vote against a candidate because of what they are, rather than how qualified, wise and judicious they are.
Great post
Does AG have term limits? Bc the whole conversation seems kind of moot if she can run for a third term. Going from AG to Lt Gov would suck.
Agreed.. LG is only good if running for another office.. AG is the better job, second only to Gov
I don't think anyone would care that Nessel is gay. She codes as a normie, and if the GOP brought it up it would turn swing voters off.
Does South Carolina law permit Nancy Mace to run simultaneously for governor and to keep her House seat? Removing her from federal office would surely be a boon to the nation.
Probably not.
Even if it did, voters wouldn't like a candidate running for two different seats.
Emerson NJ Gov:
Mikie Sherrill in the lead with . . . 10% of the vote!
Cittarelli leads 26-13 over wackjob Bill Spadea.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-jersey-2025-poll-primary-elections-for-governor-show-high-share-of-undecideds-and-fragmented-democratic-support/
I think Benson would be an excellent choice in the middle of a 2nd Trump term
Hi David and Jeff, thanks for all you do, I do have a request. I was wondering since you guys have covered the health issues of the now-deceased Rep Pascrell, Rep Evans and now Rep Scott, if you guys would consider making an issue or two about the age issue facing Democrats in Congress, since they are supposed to be the “party for young people and working families”. I believe both liberals and progressives are fed up with the leadership of the party and truly want change, and that requires retirements, especially with how many members have had health scares. Could you imagine if we had the 3 seat majority right now? That would mean that the majority would hinge on Cuellar’s trial, and our older members not kicking the bucket, especially since the past couple Congress’s have been some of our oldest yet, and many members towards the top of the age list are Democrats in safe blue seats. We must be proactive in case of a future majority of 10 seats or less. The longer they stay in, the higher of a chance of catastrophe of many members unfortunately dying while in office around the same time. But if you guys decide to cover other things, I totally understand.
May I suggest that coverage of The Geriatric Challenge be bipartisan – the obvious problem of old Democrats, plus the opportunities raised by old Republican legislators?
I think it's an individual district thing; all districts should not be lumped together due to the difficulty of open seat races in marginal seats
A federal judge said Thursday that President Donald Trump’s executive order ending birthright citizenship was “blatantly unconstitutional,” and that he was issuing a temporary restraining order to block it,
Glad to see his BS EO blocked.
That was the easy pickins'; Trump issued at least 10 other EOs that were either blatantly illegal or had illegal provisions tucked in them.
This is happening quicker than how things were back in 2017.
That "the party left me" line is wearing pretty thin, don't you think? If Nancy Mace would have to give up her House seat to run for governor, I'd be tempted to contribute to her campaign. At least it would confine her damage to SC, which gets what it deserves, and get her out of the [DC] Capitol.
The party is happy to leave a corrupt and rather incompetent incumbent who constantly flirts with the other party and is probably hoping for Donald Trump to bail him out, legally if not politically.
Not to mention he was never a Democrat at hear. Like Tulsi Gabbard and Rod Blagojevich, he only become a Democrat because of political necessity.
But he hasn't left the party yet? Other than the corruption charges, my biggest gripe with him is his kvetching over crime (from violent crimes down to fare evasion) without doing anything of note about it. 1990s Giuliani did do something about it, even if he focused on the superficial side (e.g. the "broken windows" theory). Did they weaken the mayor's powers since then or something?
Eric Adams is not Ronald Reagan. He flip-flopped on Stop and Frisk by being for it during the 2021 Mayoral Race while being staunchly against it and campaigning to end it for a long time before the race.
Adams is full of crap. He left the Democratic Party without even changing his voter registration. Going on Tucker Carlson isn't going to help Adams fight ongoing criminal investigation into potential bribery.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/fbi-uncovered-additional-criminal-conduct-nyc-mayor-eric/story?id=117431531
Something stinks to high hell with this whole Trump admin pledging to spend $500 billion for AI infrastructure. Despite what all the doomers and true believers and the tech bros claim, I strongly doubt it's about some AI arms race to "AGI" or "superintelligence." More likely it's an effort to leverage Big Tech influence over governments with powerful, but nonetheless still very limited technologies. The tradeoff for governments? Having access to this tech and contracts for themselves and selling or claiming the data and ability to monitor and influence all citizens they want. This is Cambridge Analytica in 2016 on steroids. If the tech bros aren't careful, they may end up getting gobbled up by more hostile governments like Trump's. Amazon and Bezos are right to be on edge.
It’s also grift. How much do you think will flow to Musk’s AI venture, and to AI companies owned by billionaires who supported Trump or are now bending the knee to him?
I find it terrifying that Trump is now in charge of America’s many intelligence agencies as well as our military. He’ll soon be repurposing both.
Musk already seems to be calling out Altman and others involved in the Stargate project, calling it a fraud by claiming OpenAI lacks the money for the project. Seems like Musk has many bridges to still burn and more enemies to wage his petty fights with.
Other than RFK Jr, Musk seems the likeliest to rapidly wear out his welcome with the inner sanctum and get put out to pasture
May it be so – and the sooner the better. It would be a catastrophe if Trump maneuvers a Musk purchase of TikTok.
One thing I will give Musk credit for - He doesn't have weird and creepy habits like RFK Jr does.
Musk is actually more correct than not on this one . . . the reporting on this announcement was terrible. It's not federal money; it's simply a "pledge" by these companies to spend that much over an indefinite amount of time. At most a quarter of it will come to fruition. Softbank in particular is notorious for making splashy announcements which don't end up happening.
I don't trust any of these mofos
I don't even trust Microsoft anymore. With Windows 11 there's so much bloatware including their COpilot chatbot that constantly spies on you and collects your data. If I ever do get Windows 11 it will be strictly for work. I may have to learn and switch to Linux. I won't play long with this Robocop/Bladerunner dystopia these tech bros want.
I used Windows computers for years. I've been happy to have a Mac.
Yeah, people were calling it a Trump plan when it was just the companies trying to get more attention when they announced their intention to do something that they would have done regardless of how the election went. Musk, of course, denounced it because these companies are his competitors.
Isn't this how we get the Tabernacle* from Zardoz?
*An abstract supercomputer that is a repository of all human knowledge that manages the lives of the elites in perpetual comfort and isolation.
When Larry Ellison is in the White House talking about AI being able to make a cancer vaccine, you know this is purely dillusional thinking.
Ellison's trying to be relevant in whatever way he can these days but he doesn't have any real ideas anymore.
AI accelerating medicine research is actually one of its few short term innovative use cases; most other applications are glorified search engines
I agree with you on that.
However, I should point out Ellison was flat out staying AI can develop cancer vaccines as opposed to simply stating that AI can help substantially with medical research.
Research can uncover many things but developing vaccines for cancer is the great unknown. We don’t yet know what will be uncovered from medical research, even with AI. Even with medical science, changes happen in a regular basis that not even AI can predict or calculate.
Until an actual vaccine is developed, Ellison & Co are being delusional.
I’m hoping for Mamdani or Ramos, but if it winds up being Stringer vs. Cuomo, well Stringer does have experience defeating disgraced governors.
I just don’t understand why NY and NYC suck so bad. My entire adult life I’ve been politically aware and the most glaring problem has always been the New York Democratic Party. I thought they’d be all flowers and rainbows when Spitzer won but turns out, I had no idea what was happening over there.
I’m also not asking for an explanation bc I do get it. It’s just like fuuuuuuuuccccckkkkkkk. People working together shouldn’t be so hard! We all act up in the office sometimes but come on, this is politics. Act up for the cameras but get the shit done.
"The escalating bird flu crisis is ravaging the nation's supply of eggs, leading to increased prices and presenting an immediate challenge for the Trump administration.
Why it matters: An outbreak of avian influenza is growing and has affected nearly 13 million birds in the last 30 days, according to USDA data."
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/21/bird-flu-egg-prices-avian-influenza-trump
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If egg prices go up then he’s a failed President right? Isn’t that how this works?
At this point, given the situation we're in, more power for Trump to help Democrats win this November and in 2026.
Yeah, unless he "saves" Tiktok. /s.
I honestly don't think people are going to care too much. While "economic anxiety" is certainly a bigger thing now than it actually was 8 years ago, it's being exaggerated
What? Isn't "economic anxiety" basically what just got us a 2nd Trump term??
Yes, but also a little exaggerated. I don't think high priced eggs are going to turn many people against him.
Mostly tongue and cheek since it's January 2025 but I think there is some merit to being just as relentless "he owns it" hammering of inflation, the economy and the likely stupid trade war etc. We can't just throw up our hands and say nothing matters.
I don't disagree.
Of course it's worth a try.
A lot of what did that was racism, sexism, xenophobia and transphobia. But yes, inflation played a role. Don't think Trump's supporters judge the economy the same way when he's in office, though; we know they don't.
Yes but turning them out in the midterms is another affair that Trump doesn't have a good track record of doing while being POTUS.
He also had no record of winning a plurality.
True!
More specifically: anxiety over the vibe economy, which Trump, Republicans and the mainstream infotainment news media had been shit-talking ever since President Biden was sworn into office.
Abigail Spanberger here in Virginia is not going to be able to avoid this: https://www.wric.com/news/virginia-news/state-senate-blocks-proposal-to-amend-constitution-including-right-to-work-law/
If she ever came out in favor of the Right to Freeload, her chances would be nil.
I expect her to come out as pro union. This isn't the Virginia that voted for George W Bush for President TWICE.
Not to mention that voted for the Republican in every presidential election from 1968 to 2004.
Donald Trump will also provide a big boost to the Spanberger campaign as well
I would be interested to see how Trump's executive order requiring federal employees to come back to the office will impact the VA-GOV race. On the one hand, Winsome-Sears may be pro-Right to Work but on the other, she may have to defend her view on remote work and how it impacts families.
I know at least in and around NoVA, there are lots of federal govt. employees. Pentagon is right in Arlington.
Why, it failed? I guess they could try to make it a wedge issue.
Because Democrats control both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly. It was a party line vote.
McAuliffe & Northam were the 2 most recent Democrats as Governor. How did they navigate this; can there be compromise to keep both sides happy and still get her elected? 💙🇺🇲
CT Gov:
New Britain Mayor Republican Erin Stewart files paperwork to run for Connecticut governor
https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new-britain-mayor-erin-stewart-files-paperwork-to-run-for-connecticut-governor/?utm_source=t.co&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=referral
Gov. Ned Lamont has had pretty high approvals since COVID and won easily in 2022 (56% - 43%).
Erin Stewart's only chance of becoming a Republican elected Governor in a state as blue as Connecticut would be if the Democratic nominee cratered through some kind of scandal, very unlikely. If he seeks a 3rd term and maintains strong approvals, she has a VERY uphill climb!! 💙🇺🇲