Morning Digest: Florida Democrats seek revenge on DeSantis for deposing local prosecutors

Plus $27 million in new TV ad reservations from the DCCC

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) (credit: Ron DeSantis Facebook)

Leading Off

Primary Night

Dozens of congressional primaries are taking place on Tuesday night, but the real action is Florida—and it's happening down-downballot, where Democrats are looking to take revenge on Gov. Ron DeSantis for his interference in local politics.

In recent years, DeSantis has sought to impose his far-right agenda on some of his state's bluest counties by using his far-reaching powers to remove duly elected Democratic prosecutors from office, often on the thinnest of pretexts.

Now, two of those ousted officials are seeking comebacks. In populous Hillsborough County, Andrew Warren is looking to reclaim his old post two years after DeSantis booted him for saying he wouldn't prosecute abortion providers or recipients—a stance that looms ever larger now that the GOP's six-week abortion ban has come into effect. First, though, he must get past a rival in the Democratic primary who warns DeSantis could simply eject Warren again if he were to win.

Not far away, Monique Worrell is hoping to win back her job as the top prosecutor for the Orlando area. DeSantis alleged a different beef with Worrell, sacking her for allegedly going soft on defendants charged with violent crimes. Worrell already has the Democratic nomination locked up, but she faces a three-way race in November because the Republican that DeSantis appointed to replace her decided to run for reelection as an independent.

These two races are by no means the only ones that we're watching. In all, Jeff Singer has previewed 18 different primaries across three states, giving readers of The Downballot the fullest possible picture of what to expect in this week's elections.

You can (and should!) also join us on Tuesday night for our live coverage on X/Twitter, which will start when the first polls close at 7 PM ET.

Paid subscribers to The Downballot can also join our Discord server, where The Downballot staff will be participating in a live election night chat/watch party with our community on Tuesday night!

House

OR-06

The first public survey of this year's race for Oregon's potentially competitive 6th Congressional District comes from Republican challenger Mike Erickson, whose new internal poll from Cygnal finds Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas with a small 45-43 lead in their November rematch. The survey was also sponsored by the National Republican Congressional Committee, the official campaign arm of House Republicans.

The pollster's memo, however, doesn't offer data on the presidential race, except to say that Erickson "outperforms" Donald Trump—which he will almost certainly have to do if he's to flip this seat. Joe Biden would have carried the 6th District, which is based in the Salem area and Portland's southwestern suburbs, by a 55-42 margin in 2020, and Kamala Harris is likely to win it again.

Things were considerably closer last cycle, when Salinas beat Erickson 50-48 for the right to represent the brand-new 6th District, which Oregon was awarded following the last census due to high population growth. Oregon Democrats, however, faced an unusually tough environment in the midterms; Democrat Tina Kotek, for instance, actually lost the 6th 46-44 while winning the governor's race only narrowly. Similar circumstances are unlikely to repeat this fall.

Major outside groups for both parties have together reserved almost $28 million in TV time for the Portland media market, which covers the entire 6th District. However, it also includes two much more competitive seats, Oregon's GOP-held 5th and Washington's Democratic-held 3rd, which are likely to see the bulk of this planned spending.

DCCC

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is the official campaign arm of House Democrats, announced an additional $27 million in fall television ad reservations on Monday, adding to the $16 million the committee previously booked in mid-June. You can stay on top of all the TV reservations from the largest House groups by bookmarking our comprehensive tracker.

The DCCC's new bookings span 18 different media markets, covering a wide swath of potential districts. Just one of these markets, though, hasn't been the site of previous ad reservations by the D-Trip or its super PAC counterpart, House Majority PAC: Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

According to data from The Downballot, the Cedar Rapids market—which extends far beyond city limits and includes places like Dubuque and Iowa City—is split between two districts. About a quarter of its population lives in the 1st District while the rest lives in the 2nd.

But even though the larger proportion is in the 2nd District, it's likely that the DCCC's reservation is aimed at the 1st. The two districts are politically similar: The 1st voted for Donald Trump by a close 51-48 spread in 2020 while the 2nd backed Trump 51-47, according to calculations from The Downballot.

However, the committee previously included the Democratic nominee, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, on its list of highly touted candidates known as "Red to Blue." Bohannan is seeking a rematch against Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who won their first bout in 2022 by a 53-47 margin.

By contrast, the Democrat running against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in the 2nd District, businesswoman Sarah Corkery, has not received similar attention from D.C. Democrats.

Grab Bag

Where Are They Now?

Former New York Rep. George Santos, who last year became the first Republican in history to get expelled from the House, pleaded guilty to federal fraud charges on Monday, less than a month before he was set to go on trial. Santos will be sentenced in February and likely faces six to eight years in prison, according to the judge presiding over the case.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Ruben Gallego (D): 44, Kari Lake (R): 39 (44-43 Trump with third-party candidates) (early Aug.: 42-36 Gallego)

• NM-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 42, Nella Domenici (R): 36 (47-41 Harris with third-party candidates) (early Aug.: 40-34 Heinrich)

• NV-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 41, Sam Brown (R): 37 (43-42 Trump with third-party candidates) (early Aug.: 41-38 Rosen)

• PA-Sen: Cygnal (R): Bob Casey (D-inc): 42, Dave McCormick (R): 39, John Thomas (L): 3, Leila Hazou (G): 2, Marty Selker (C): 1, Erik Messina (ASP) (48-47 Harris in two-way, 44-43 Trump with third-party candidates) (June: 46-42 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Casey (D-inc): 44, McCormick (R): 36, Hazou (G): 1 (46-44 Harris with third-party candidates) (early Aug.: 45-40 Casey) 

• NC-Gov: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Josh Stein (D): 45, Mark Robinson (R): 39 (47-44 Trump with third-party candidates) (early Aug.: 43-38 Stein)

Ad Roundup

• MD-Sen: Larry Hogan (R) (here, here, and here)

• MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D) - anti-Josh Hawley (R-inc)

• MT-Sen: Americans for Prosperity - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc); American Chemistry Council - pro-Tim Sheehy (R)

• OH-Sen: Americans for Prosperity - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc)

• DE-Gov: Citizens for a New Delaware Way - anti-Bethany Hall-Long (D) (part of $700,000 buy)

• NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D)

• NH-Gov: Kelly Ayotte (R); Put New Hampshire First (DGA affiliate) - anti-Ayotte

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc) - anti-Kirsten Engel (D)

• MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc)

• NM-02: Yvette Herrell (R) - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc)

• OR-05: Janelle Bynum (D)