Morning Digest: For the first time ever, New Mexico Republicans won't field a Senate candidate
It's one of three statewide races that the GOP is forfeiting this year
Leading Off
NM-Sen
For the first time since New Mexico became a state in 1912, Republicans won’t field a candidate in a U.S. Senate race.
The GOP learned of its grim fate on Tuesday when Democratic Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver determined that the little-known Christopher Vanden Heuvel had failed to submit enough signatures to make the ballot.
Vanden Heuvel was the only Republican who had filed to take on Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Lujan before the Feb. 3 deadline to turn in signatures, so his disqualification almost certainly means that the incumbent will face no major-party opposition this fall.
As a result, New Mexico will lose its membership in a small and shrinking club.
The University of Minnesota’s Eric Ostermeier tells The Downballot, “New Mexico is currently one of 20 states which have fielded a Republican and Democratic candidate in every U.S. Senate election since 1914.” That year was the first election cycle, following the passage of the 17th Amendment, in which senators were elected by voters rather than by the state legislature.
In the century after it was granted statehood, New Mexico had at least one GOP senator for much of that time. One of them was the late Pete Domenici, whose service from 1973 until his retirement in 2009 makes him the longest-serving senator in state history.
While Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in New Mexico since 2002, when Domenici secured his final term in a landslide, they hadn’t given up trying—until now.
When Lujan won a promotion from the House in 2020 after beating Republican Mark Ronchetti, a well-known local TV weatherman, he prevailed by a surprisingly modest 52-46 spread. (Ronchetti would perform similarly two years later in his unsuccessful campaign against Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, whose late husband was the senator’s distant cousin.)
Four years later, Republicans tried to make a play for the state’s other seat by recruiting businesswoman Nella Domenici, the former senator’s daughter, to take on Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich. Heinrich, though, defeated her 55-45.
That same year, however, New Mexico showed that while it’s a reliably Democratic state, it’s not a deep shade of blue. Kamala Harris carried it by just a 52-46 margin—the closest race since Al Gore’s 366-vote win in 2000.
Lujan isn’t the only Democrat running statewide who will go unopposed. Republicans failed to put forth any names at all for the posts of treasurer and auditor, allowing the Democrats who hold both posts to stroll to second terms.
There’s an outside chance that Republicans could still land a Senate candidate, but time is running out.
Anyone who wants to seek the GOP nomination as a write-in candidate only has until March 17 to collect 2,351 signatures—a number that represents 2% of the number of registered Republican voters who cast a ballot in the most recent gubernatorial election. They would then need to win that same number of write-in votes in the primary to get their name on the fall ballot.
There is no word, though, as to whether Republicans are actually trying to organize such an effort to ensure they have a candidate against Lujan, who was already a sure bet to win a second term.
While the GOP’s apparent forfeit won’t have much of an impact in the battle for control of the Senate, it’s an unwelcome development in a year where Republicans were already waging uphill campaigns to replace the termed-out Lujan Grisham and to defeat Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the competitive 2nd Congressional District.
“Besides highlighting the crisis of the NMGOP’s long-term relevance, the failure to field a Lujan opponent could also hurt their already long shot chances to take the Governor’s office in November,” longtime state political observer Joe Monahan writes. “That would require a strong turnout and with no branded Republican senate candidate at the top of the ticket, it becomes even more problematic.”
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Senate
NC-Sen
The Koch network’s Americans for Prosperity has launched what Politico says is a “seven-figure ad buy” to support Michael Whatley, the former RNC chair who is Donald Trump’s choice in North Carolina’s March 3 GOP Senate primary.
The spot, which touts Whatley as a “serious leader ready to solve problems,” does not mention conspiracy theorist Michele Morrow, the GOP’s failed 2024 nominee for superintendent of public instruction, who is waging a long-shot primary campaign.
The commercial also doesn’t reference former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democrat who leads Whatley in the polls and in fundraising.
Governors
AZ-Gov
Wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson announced on Thursday that she was dropping out of the Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Katie Hobbs, a decision that showcased the limits of Donald Trump’s power in an unexpected way.
Robson, whose exit came exactly one year to the day that she first launched her campaign, had in fact earned Trump’s backing even before she entered the race.
But Trump’s pre-endorsement—at a Turning Point USA event just before Christmas in 2024—went over very poorly with the MAGA base. Far-right fanatics exploded in anger, though they largely blamed Trump’s advisors rather than MAGA’s master.
Among the detractors was Sen. Jake Hoffman, who said that Trump “should fire whichever executive consultant or staffer told him to endorse the UniParty McCain network candidate for Arizona governor.”
Hoffman, the chair of the state’s branch of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, added that Robson lost the 2022 primary for governor because “Arizona doesn’t want her open borders, pro-amnesty liberal policies.” He added, “KTR is the Swamp.”
Conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer, meanwhile, highlighted Robson’s appearance in a 2022 TV ad promoting a successful ballot measure to allow undocumented high school graduates to qualify for in-state college tuition. Loomer, who is reportedly close to Trump, lamented on social media, “This vetting crisis needs to be addressed.”
The carping seemed to have an impact. Robson waited nearly two months to kick off her bid after earning Trump’s blessing, and during that delay, a rival jumped into the race: Rep. Andy Biggs, a member of the House Freedom Caucus who offered a much purer strain of MAGA to primary voters.
Biggs’ entry gave Trump the perfect opportunity to soothe his base. In April, he announced that he was also giving the congressman his “complete and total endorsement.”
It was a devastating blow to Robson, who’d sought to inoculate herself against the many charges of apostasy she faced by touting the fact that she had Trump’s backing. With Biggs sharing the spoils, that defense was severely blunted, and she never recovered.
Robson soon saw three prominent Trump allies quit her campaign, and polls taken throughout 2025 showed Biggs far ahead. No new surveys have emerged during the new year, though it’s a safe bet that any numbers Robson saw left her with little hope.
Robson’s departure leaves Biggs in the pole position, though he still faces fellow Rep. David Schweikert, who made a late entry into the race in the fall. Schweikert is hoping that his history of winning in a swing district will appeal to primary voters who are keen to elevate a more electable candidate, but such a message has seldom won over the MAGA faithful.
Robson, who did not endorse either of her two remaining rivals, left the race by calling for her party to avoid “a divisive Republican primary that drains resources and turns into months of intraparty attacks.” Even if anyone listens, though, it’s likely that the eventual GOP nominee will still have considerably fewer resources at his disposal than Hobbs.
The governor, who does not face serious intraparty opposition, ended 2025 with $6.2 million in the bank. Biggs and Schweikert were far behind with only about $690,000 and $280,000, respectively.
Robson, for her part, had $1.1 million available for her doomed effort, though what she might do with that war chest is unclear.
SC-Gov
South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette on Wednesday received the endorsement of termed-out Gov. Henry McMaster ahead of the June GOP primary for McMaster’s job.
McMaster, who ascended from the post of lieutenant governor to the state’s top job in 2017 when Gov. Nikki Haley left to join the Trump administration, chose Evette the next year to be his running mate in his quest for a full term. The two went on to win in 2018 and again four years later, and he praised his would-be successor as a key ally as he backed her campaign.
Observers, though, are waiting to see whether the governor’s decision presages a blessing from a still more prominent figure. McMaster was the first statewide elected official anywhere in the nation to back Donald Trump’s insurgent 2016 campaign, and he’s remained an ardent MAGA ally over the ensuing decade.
Evette has made it no secret that she’d welcome Trump’s endorsement in a busy primary against several well-established figures.
Her main rivals are Attorney General Alan Wilson and a pair of House members, Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman. State Sen. Josh Kimbrell is also running, but polls show him with little support. Candidates need to secure a majority of the vote on June 9 to avoid a runoff two weeks later.
The Democratic frontrunner is state Rep. Jermaine Johnson, who is hoping to become his party’s first statewide winner in two decades.
House
FL-02
Luke Murphy, an Army veteran who lost his left leg while serving in Iraq, joined the busy Republican primary field for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District on Thursday.
Murphy’s entry into the race comes at a time when Republicans are wondering whether they’ll also have to square off ahead of the regularly scheduled August primary. GOP Rep. Neal Dunn announced last month that he would not seek reelection, but he did not dismiss rumors this week that he could resign before his term is over.
IL-09
Sen. Tammy Duckworth endorsed Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss on Thursday ahead of the closely watched March 17 Democratic primary for Illinois’ open 9th District. Biss is one of 15 Democrats competing to succeed retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who also supports the mayor, in a safely blue constituency that includes communities north of Chicago and a portion of the city.
NJ-12
Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman tells the New Jersey Globe that, while she doesn’t have a preferred successor, she doesn’t want East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen to replace her in Congress.
The outgoing incumbent called Cohen “a hardline supporter of” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom she denounced as “a despot, a corrupt leader.”
“I have a lot of respect for Congresswoman Watson Coleman,” Cohen told the Globe in response. “On most issues, we’re completely on the same page. But I think she’s mischaracterizing me when she calls me a hardliner.”
Cohen is competing in a packed June 2 Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 12th District, a safely blue constituency that Watson Coleman is not seeking reelection to. Cohen ended 2025 with a larger war chest than any of his rivals, though several candidates have entered the race since the start of the new year and have not filed fundraising disclosures yet.
NV-02
Would-be GOP candidates are waiting to see whether Army veteran Sam Brown, who was the party’s 2024 nominee for Senate, runs for the open 2nd District, the Nevada Independent’s Mini Racker reports.
But while Racker says that Brown would be Donald Trump’s choice to replace retiring Rep. Mark Amodei, no one’s sure if he wants the job. Brown, though, is happy to keep the speculation alive. He replied to a tweet from Indy founder Jon Ralston on Wednesday night by snarking, “Who would run in that open seat?!”
One person who plans to run for that open seat is Fred Simon, a retired surgeon who informed Racker he intends to self-fund $1 million. Simon, who says he won’t let Brown influence him, took all of 3% of the vote in the 2022 primary for governor, and his 2024 intraparty campaign against Amodei ended in a 64-36 loss.
Several other Republicans might get in if Brown doesn’t, even though they don’t all hail from northern Nevada.
Unnamed GOP strategists tell Racker that state Controller Andy Matthews, who is from Las Vegas, could be a serious candidate—even though he made the fateful decision to endorse Ron DeSantis over Trump in the last presidential primary. Matthews didn’t rule anything out, saying, “As we approach the official filing period for office, I will make my intentions known soon.”
Nevada Trucking Association CEO Paul Enos, likewise, said he was waiting to learn whether “some people that I love who have been phenomenal public servants” run before he decides himself. But while Enos didn’t say who he might defer to, he indicated it wouldn’t be Matthews, since he told Racker it was “important to live in the place you’re representing.”
Racker’s piece includes news about the interest—or lack thereof—on the part of many other Republicans. Candidate filing closes a month from now, on March 13.
TX-18
Fairshake, a super PAC funded by the crypto sector, tells the New York Times it will spend $1.5 million on ads against Rep. Al Green ahead of Texas’ March 3 Democratic primary for the redrawn 18th District in Houston.
Green faces fellow Rep. Christian Menefee, who was sworn into office last week after winning a special election for the old 18th.
The opening commercial from Fairshake’s Protect Progress affiliate implores voters to support Menefee to once again make Democrats “the party of the future.” The spot does not mention the 78-year-old Green, who is more than four decades older than his 37-year-old rival, or crypto.
Fairshake, though, has something other than generational change motivating it. A spokesperson says that it’s targeting Green, a member of the powerful Financial Services Committee, because he’s “actively hostile towards a growing Texas crypto community,” according to the group.
During a hearing last year, Green expressed his misgivings “about how cryptocurrency can impact the dollar as the currency of choice.”
While Menefee, who previously served as attorney for Harris County, hasn’t had time to establish a record in Congress on this issue, one influential group likes what he has to say. The Times notes that a crypto industry organization awarded him an “A” rating after he filled out its questionnaire, while it gave Green an “F.”
TX-33
Former Rep. Colin Allred has launched the first negative TV ad of next month’s closely watched Democratic primary in Texas’ redrawn 33rd District, going after his chief rival, Rep. Julie Johnson.
“A new investigative report by the Texas Tribune has caught Julie Johnson profiting from ICE’s surveillance company, making thousands from the company ICE uses to track and detain our neighbors,” Allred’s narrator says. The candidate later appears and pledges to “stop ICE.”
The spot cites a recent Texas Tribune story reporting that, last year, Johnson bought and sold stock in Palantir Technologies, the data-mining firm founded by conservative megadonor Peter Thiel that’s sold tools to ICE that help the agency track immigrants.
The congresswoman told the publication that her portfolio was managed by third parties, but said that she’d chosen to divest from Palantir “because earning the trust of my constituents matters more than personal convenience.”
The ad comes less than three weeks before Johnson tries to fend off a surprise challenge from her immediate predecessor. Johnson was elected in 2024 to replace Allred in the old 32nd District in the Dallas area after he opted to wage an ultimately unsuccessful campaign against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
Allred began running for Texas’ other Senate seat last summer, while Johnson opted to seek reelection in the safely blue 33rd District after Republicans passed a new gerrymander that made her 32nd District all but unwinnable for Democrats. Allred, though, unexpectedly announced on the day of the state’s December candidate filing deadline that he was ending his Senate bid and would instead challenge Johnson for renomination on March 3.
The former congressman soon looked like the frontrunner. He released a poll in mid-December giving him a hefty 58-30 lead, and neither Johnson nor anyone else pushed back with their own numbers. Allred, who was able to transfer the money he’d raised for his abortive Senate campaign, went on to end the year with almost $2 million in the bank, which was twice as much as Johnson had at her disposal.
Geography also gave Allred reason for optimism. Just under a third of the residents of the new 33rd live in the old 32nd, where both candidates had won election. However, Allred’s 2024 statewide run gave him exposure to voters across the revamped district he’s now seeking.
Allred’s negative ad, though, indicates that he doesn’t feel the contest is as lopsided as his polling suggested it was two months ago. No one, however, has released any surveys this year assessing where things stand now.
Johnson, who is the only gay person in Texas’ congressional delegation, may also get some help from Equality PAC, which reportedly reserved $1.2 million in ad time to aid her last year. The LGBTQ rights group, though, does not appear to have hit the airwaves with less than a week to go before the start of early voting on Tuesday.
It’s possible, however, that the race between Allred and Johnson will continue well past March 3. Two other Democrats are on the ballot, so they could make it tougher for either frontrunner to secure the majority of the vote necessary to avert a runoff on May 26.
Poll Pile
IL-09 (D): Impact Research (D) for Daniel Biss: Daniel Biss: 31, Laura Fine: 18, Kat Abughazaleh: 18, Mike Simmons: 7, Phil Andrew: 7, Bushra Amiwala: 4, Hoan Huynh: 3. (Nov.: Biss: 31, Abughazaleh: 17, Fine: 10.)
MI-10 (R): OnMessage (R) for Mike Bouchard: Mike Bouchard: 37, Robert Lulgjuraj: 8, Justin Kirk: 3, undecided: 51.
NY-17 (D): Lake Research Partners (D): Cait Conley: 18, Beth Davidson: 17, Peter Chatzky: 12, Effie Phillips-Staley: 5, Mike Sacks: 2, John Cappello: 0, undecided: 41. Politico writes that the firm did not say which campaign sponsored the poll. However, the memo says, “Chatzky is well-positioned to win the primary and defeat Republican Mike Lawler in November.”
VA Supreme Court lets redistricting go forward https://x.com/bluevirginia/status/2022338686868930822?s=20
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