Morning Digest: Garlin Gilchrist, who'd be Michigan's first Black governor, launches bid

He rose to prominence running with Gretchen Whitmer. Now he wants to succeed her.

Michigan Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist campaigning with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer

Leading Off

MI-Gov

Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, who'd been eyeing the race for Michigan's open governorship for some time, formally kicked off his campaign this morning with a launch video. He joins a Democratic primary that already includes Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

Gilchrist's election as lieutenant governor in 2018 made him the first Black person to ever occupy the post, a feat he'd repeat if he succeeds his ticket-mate, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, as the state's chief executive.

A year before he ran statewide, though, Gilchrist made his mark by nearly upsetting Detroit's longtime clerk, Janice Winfrey, after Winfrey's office came under widespread criticism for its botched handling of the 2016 elections. Though Gilchrist, a political organizer with a tech background, lost 51-49, his performance was impressive enough that Whitmer tapped him as her running mate in 2018.

The pair went on to great success at the ballot box, together defeating a GOP ticket of Bill Schuette and Lisa Lyons by a 53-44 margin. Four years later, they won by an even wider 54-44 spread, this time against Republicans Tudor Dixon and Shane Hernandez, despite running in a midterm year that should have been an impediment.

Now with Whitmer barred from running a third time due to term limits, Gilchrist has the chance to secure the top job, though a new poll of the Democratic primary suggests he starts at a disadvantage.

In a survey from Target-Insyght for the tipsheet MIRS News, Benson sits at 55% of the vote. Gilchrist is tied for second with state Attorney General Dana Nessel at 12% apiece, while Swanson takes 3%. (The firm has done work both for Democrats and media organizations.) Nessel, though, hasn't indicated an interest in a bid for governor, though she's said she might run for Senate.

On the GOP side, Target-Insyght finds Rep. John James with a comparable 57-13 lead on his nearest opponent, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, who's at 13%, with others in the single digits. James has not declared his candidacy yet, but in a potential preview of the general election, Benson would lead him 42-30 with Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a former Democrat who's running as an independent, taking 21%.

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Election Night

Special Elections

Minnesota will finally hold a special election tonight for a vacant state House district that should return the chamber to a tie, while Democrats in Iowa are hoping for a repeat of the magic that saw them flip a dark-red district in January.

The race for District 40B in the Minnesota House had previously been set for Jan. 28 but was canceled after the state Supreme Court ruled that Gov. Tim Walz had acted prematurely in calling it. It was later rescheduled, though Democrat David Gottfried, an attorney, remains the favorite over Republican Paul Wikstrom, an engineer.

Wikstrom ran for this seat last year and lost 65-35, but afterwards, he brought a successful legal challenge to the residency of his Democratic opponent, Curtis Johnson. Johnson opted not to take his seat rather than appeal, giving Republicans a temporary 67-66 edge in the House following the November elections, which saw the GOP pick up four seats.

Republicans argued that they had the power to use this advantage to name a speaker, but the state Supreme Court determined that an outright majority of 68 votes was needed to do so. That pushed Republicans back to the negotiating table, where the parties hammered out a power-sharing agreement. Kamala Harris carried District 40B by a 68-30 margin, so Gottfried is likely to restore the chamber to a 67-67 tie.

In eastern Iowa's 100th House District, meanwhile, both parties are vying for the seat previously held by Republican Rep. Martin Graber, who died in January. Republican Blaine Watkins, a legislative staffer, should have the edge over Democratic businesswoman Nannette Griffin, given the district's dark red hue: Donald Trump won it 62-36, according to calculations by The Downballot, and Graber won reelection 68-32 over an independent (no Democrat filed to run).

But in late January, Democrat Mike Zimmer won a shocking upset in the state's 35th Senate District, which is politically and demographically similar to the 100th House District. Democrats hope that the same enthusiasm that powered Zimmer to his victory will also buoy Griffin. Republicans currently hold a 66-33 edge in the chamber, so a Democratic flip would end the GOP's two-thirds supermajority.

Senate

MI-Sen

Target-Insyght's poll for MIRS mentioned above in our lead item also included a look at some hypothetical matchups that could unfold in Michigan's open Senate race. In one pairing, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 46-44; in another, Rogers, who narrowly lost last year's contest to Democrat Elissa Slotkin, is up 41-35 on Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens.

MN-Sen

Former Minnesota Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen announced a bid for the Senate on Monday, making her the second notable Democrat after Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to enter the race to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith.

Lopez Franzen, who was reportedly a potential option to replace Al Franken after he resigned in 2017, is seeking a comeback after involuntarily leaving the legislature in 2022.

Not long after becoming the first person of color to serve as the Democrats' leader in the state Senate in 2021, Lopez Franzen found herself placed in the same district as another Democratic incumbent, Ron Latz, and opted to retire rather than run against him.

A large number of candidates are still considering the race on both sides, though Republicans have yet to land a major name. Though statewide elections in Minnesota have often been close, the GOP has not won a Senate race since 2002.

Governors

AL-Gov

Alabama businesswoman Lynda Blanchard, who said last year that she was looking at another campaign for governor, was just nominated by Donald Trump to serve as ambassador to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, so that presumably takes her out of the running. We can't say that definitively, though, given how brief the tenures of many Trump appointees have been.

So far, no notable Republicans have entered next year's race to succeed GOP Gov. Kay Ivey, who is term-limited. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, though, shook up the unfolding primary last week when he confirmed he was interested in running for governor, but one prominent officeholder is hinting he won't defer to the senator.

Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth shared a social media post about Tuberville's deliberations by showing himself in running gear and tweeting, "I've been eating my Wheaties and getting into running shape. Looks like the 2026 governor's race may be shaping up to be one for the history books." He added, "#ReadyToRun."

For Democrats, former Sen. Doug Jones reportedly did not rule out a bid in January.

CO-Gov

Democratic Rep. Jason Crow won't run for Colorado's governorship after accepting a post as recruitment co-chair at the DCCC, reports Axios, though there's no direct quote from the congressman to that effect. In December, Crow declined to rule out a bid.

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FL-Gov

A new poll for Rep. Byron Donalds shows him with a slim 34-30 lead over former TV anchor Casey DeSantis in next year's GOP primary for governor, with state Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson at just 3%. DeSantis, the wife of Gov. Ron DeSantis, has yet to announce a bid but is reportedly considering one.

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The survey, from Fabrizio Lee, also finds that Donalds' advantage would grow considerably once voters learn that he's been endorsed by Donald Trump. Oftentimes, these sorts of "informed ballot" polls are used to test different messages rather than attempt to forecast the future, but in the case of a Trump endorsement, Donalds won't have any trouble communicating that fact to voters.

NJ-Gov

Sean Spiller, the president of the New Jersey Education Association, has been supported in his bid for governor by a well-funded paid media blitz, but as the New Jersey Monitor reports, he has virtually no campaign of his own.

Rather, Spiller is the beneficiary of heavy spending by a super PAC called Working New Jersey. The group is led by the NJEA's former executive director and has received at least $10 million from another super PAC, Garden State Forward, that is run by the union.

Working New Jersey has said it plans to spend $35 million to boost Spiller, a former mayor of Montclair. A full picture of the PAC's finances is unavailable, though: As the Monitor's Dana DiFilippo notes, it has not filed any disclosures since Spiller entered the race last June.

Spiller's reports, meanwhile, show that he has zero staff on payroll and had spent less than $65,000 as of Dec. 31, claiming that his campaign is relying on volunteers. The unusual state of affairs has ethics watchdogs and at least one of Spiller's rivals in the June Democratic primary, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, expressing displeasure, because campaigns and super PACs are barred by law from coordinating with one another.

Spiller's backers, however, are arguing that the effort is working. A new poll paid for by Garden State Forward and conducted by GBAO finds Spiller in second place, trailing Rep. Mikie Sherrill 20-15. There's a pileup just behind him: Baraka is in a tight third place at 14, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop at 10, Rep. Josh Gottheimer at 9, and former State Senate President Steve Sweeney at 8. A small plurality of respondents, 24%, remain undecided.

And candidates in other races who've tried outsourcing their campaigns to super PACs can find that even sanguine polls may ultimately prove to be a mirage—most notoriously of all Ron DeSantis.

NY-Gov

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has a wide advantage over two potential rivals in next year's Democratic primary, according to Siena College, which finds her leading Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado 46-11 while Rep. Ritchie Torres takes 10%.

Neither would-be challenger has launched a bid yet, though Delgado recently declined to rule out a campaign after announcing he would not seek reelection on Hochul's ticket. Torres, meanwhile, said in November that he's considering the race and would decide by "mid-2025," according to one account.

OH-Gov

A new group supporting Vivek Ramaswamy with the definitely-didn't-focus-group-this name of V-PAC is spending $3 million on TV and digital ads touting their man as Donald Trump's pick in the race for Ohio's open governorship, reports NBC's Henry Gomez. The organization, whose full name is even weirder—"V-PAC: Victors not Victims"—is airing one 15-second spot that features a clip of Trump and another 30-second ad that's mostly just Ramaswamy talking.

TN-Gov

As Rep. John Rose proceeds with his lugubrious campaign rollout—State Affairs called it a "long hello" and a "non-announcement tour"—at least one House colleague has decided he's not interested in waiting.

Rep. Chuck Fleischman, who serves a neighboring district in East Tennessee, just penned an op-ed explaining why he's supporting Sen. Marsha Blackburn's likely bid for the state's open governorship. Neither candidate has actually announced yet, but Blackburn has taken more concrete steps toward a run, including airing TV ads.

Mayors & County Leaders

Pittsburgh, PA Mayor & St. Louis, MO Mayor

Local Democratic parties in two large cities have endorsed challengers to incumbent mayors ahead of critical elections coming up this spring.

In Pittsburgh, the Allegheny County Democratic Committee narrowly voted to endorse County Controller Corey O'Connor over Mayor Ed Gainey, who just four years ago ousted the previous incumbent, Bill Peduto, in the Democratic primary—with the backing of the county party at the time. The two will compete for the party's nod on May 20, with the winner likely to be the heavy favorite in the November general election in this dark-blue city.

Meanwhile, Democratic Party leaders in St. Louis gave their blessing to Alderwoman Cara Spencer rather than get behind Mayor Tishaura Jones for a second term. Last week, Spencer won the support of 68% of voters in the city's primary, which was conducted using approval voting, while Jones won just 33%. The pair will face off one-on-one in a traditional vote on April 8.