Morning Digest: Gary Peters' surprise retirement sets off massive wave of interest to succeed him

Plus, we take a long look back at the Michigan Democrat's fascinating political career

Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring after an eventful career in Michigan politics (credit: Gary Peters campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

MI-Sen

Democratic Sen. Gary Peters stunned politicos on Tuesday by announcing he would not seek a third term next year. It didn't take long, however, for a wide array of potential candidates from both parties to publicly or privately express interest in entering what will be one of the top Senate races in the entire country.

Even had Peters run again, Michigan would have held a hotly contested election next year: Its previous two Senate races were the second-closest in the country each time, both last year and in 2020, when Peters was most recently on the ballot. An open seat ensures that the state will remain a fierce battleground, a fact that every would-be contender is taking into consideration.

On the Democratic side, a spokesperson for former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg tells CNN his boss is "honored to be mentioned for this and he’s taking a serious look." Buttigieg, who previously served as mayor of South Bend in neighboring Indiana, has also reportedly been eying the race to replace Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a fellow Democrat who cannot seek reelection in 2026 and swiftly took her name out of contention for Peters' seat on Tuesday.

Buttigieg is far from the only Democrat who unexpectedly now has a second open seat to consider. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow tells Politico, "I’m taking a serious look at both the Senate seat as well as the governor’s race and plan to have a number of conversations in the coming days about where I can do the most good for Michiganders."

Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, meanwhile, had looked like an all-but-certain candidate to succeed Whitmer, but Peters' announcement reportedly has him reconsidering his plans. An unnamed source now tells Politico the lieutenant governor is taking a "serious look" at the Senate race.

Several other Democrats who had not shown any obvious interest in the gubernatorial contest are also eyeing the Senate contest. State Sen. Sarah Anthony confirmed on the record that she's thinking about running, while Politico, Axios, Crain's Detroit, and the Detroit News report that at least five others are doing the same (though they haven't yet said so publicly):

• Attorney General Dana Nessel

• Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed

• Michigan Professional Fire Fighters Union head Matt Sahr

• Rep. Hillary Scholten

• Rep. Haley Stevens

Scholten, though, hinted she could run on social media, writing, "We know that Trump won Michigan, but candidates like myself won in tough places as well. We’ve done it before and we can do it again."

Rep. Shri Thanedar, meanwhile, appeared to rule out a bid in a statement while simultaneously using language regularly deployed by politicians who want to avoid answering questions about their interest.

The wealthy congressman told Axios he'd "been asked to run" for the Senate but believes there's "a lot to do in the House to stop [Donald Trump's] harmful policies, so that's where my focus is." He concluded, "That being said, it's essential to keep this seat in the Democratic family, so I'm going to do everything possible to help the nominee win this seat."

Media outlets have also mentioned Reps. Kristen McDonald Rivet and Rashida Tlaib as possible candidates, but there's no word yet if either congresswoman is considering. Like Whitmer, though, Rep. Debbie Dingell also said she was not interested.

Every candidate. We mean it: We track every potential candidate whenever a major race breaks open, like Michigan’s Senate contest just did. If this kind of assiduous coverage is valuable to you—and especially to the work you do—please support The Downballot by becoming a paid subscriber.

The prospective Republican field is just as large. Politico reports that a trio of Republicans had already been weighing the race back when they thought they'd go up against Peters: Rep. Bill Huizenga; former NFL coach Tony Dungy; and former Rep. Mike Rogers, who just narrowly lost the race to Michigan's other Senate seat to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.

Another familiar name belongs to conservative political commentator Tudor Dixon, who fell short against Whitmer in the 2022 gubernatorial race. Dixon, who has repeatedly talked about a second bid for the governor's mansion, posted on social media that she's now eyeing the Senate race.

There's also speculation that Rep. John James, who lost a tight race to Peters in 2020, could run to replace his one-time rival. James cryptically responded to Tuesday's news by tweeting, "Brighter days are ahead for Michigan," but GOP sources tell Politico that they still think he's more likely to run for governor.

State Sen. Jonathan Lindsey and state Rep. Bryan Posthumus, for their part, didn't rule out Senate bids. Various reporters and GOP strategists also named several other possible contenders, though we've yet to hear directly from this lot:

• Former Lt. Gov. Brian Calley

• Former Attorney General Mike Cox

• Former Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel

• Former Rep. Peter Meijer

• Rep. John Moolenaar

• Businessman Sandy Pensler

• Businessman Kevin Rinke

• Former Attorney General Bill Schuette

• Former New York Stock Exchange executive John Tuttle

Last year, Cox set up an exploratory committee to run for governor, while Rinke previously showed interest in seeking that post. But one House incumbent, Rep. Lisa McClain, quickly told reporters she wasn't going to run for Peters' job, while businessman Perry Johnson informed the Detroit News he was only interested in running for governor.

Whoever eventually steps forward will compete in a truly historic year in Michigan politics. As political writer Zach Gorchow notes, this will be the first time that the Wolverine State will host open races for both Senate and governor in the same year ever since the state began holding direct elections for senators in 1916, following the adoption of the 17th Amendment.

Peters' decision also ends a long political career defined by tough wins and a few painful defeats.

The Democrat, who had worked as a financial advisor, lost his first race in 1990 when he unsuccessfully campaigned for a seat in the state Senate. He bounced back the next year, though, by earning a spot on the city council in Rochester Hills, a suburb of Detroit.

Peters joined the U.S. Navy Reserves in 1993, but that didn't deter him from waging a second campaign for the state Senate the following year—nor did the GOP wave stop him from decisively winning a spot in the legislature. It was the first—but far from last—time that Peters would find himself on the ballot in a brutal year for his party.

As a state senator, he sought to claim one of Michigan's most prominent offices in 2002 when he campaigned to replace Attorney General Jennifer Granholm, a Democrat who was leaving to run for governor. But Granholm's decisive win wasn't quite enough to get her ticketmate over the finish line: Republican Michael Cox ultimately prevailed 48.9-48.7—a margin of just 5,200 votes.

The new governor soon chose Peters to be the state's lottery commissioner, a post he still held when national Democrats recruited him to challenge veteran Republican Rep. Joe Knollenberg in 2008. Two years earlier, Knollenberg narrowly turned back an underfunded opponent in the 9th District, a competitive constituency based in Detroit's northwestern suburbs. Democrats believed that the well-connected Peters would be able to complete the task.

Both parties thought that the eight-term incumbent was still the favorite, and an independent poll even showed Knollenberg ahead by 7 points just before Labor Day. Republicans also hoped that the independent candidacy of Jack Kevorkian, who had recently finished a prison sentence for assisting in the suicide of dozens of terminally ill patients, would disproportionately take votes from the Democrat.

Peters, though, got some welcome news in early October when Republican presidential nominee John McCain all but conceded Michigan's electoral votes to Barack Obama. The National Republican Congressional Committee, which was stretched thin, followed suit a short time later by canceling planned TV spending for Knollenberg. Peters ultimately triumphed in a 52-43 thumping (Kevorkian took 3%) as Obama carried the 9th 56-43.

The former lottery commissioner began his new job by winning the coveted first-choice pick for office assignments, but he soon had reason to fear that his luck might reverse itself. Obama's once-strong approval numbers plunged ahead of the 2010 midterm elections, and Republicans were determined to punish Peters for voting for the Affordable Care Act and other administration priorities.

But while Democrats in Michigan, like their counterparts across the nation, struggled in a brutal political climate, Peters was able to capitalize on the GOP's mistakes. His GOP foe, former state Rep. Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski, drew the wrong type of attention when he questioned whether Obama was a natural-born American citizen and said he'd "love" to see the president's birth certificate.

The prominent conservative activist ​​Phyllis Schlafly also hurt her candidate when she declared that unmarried women overwhelmingly supported Obama "because when you kick your husband out, you’ve got to have big brother government to be your provider." Peters, who enjoyed a wide financial advantage, ultimately held on 50-47 in what proved to be a rare bright spot for Democrats during an otherwise disastrous election year.

The congressman, however, soon faced a very different type of threat to his political future. The state lost one of its 15 congressional districts following the 2010 census, and the state's new GOP-drawn map didn't leave Peters with an obvious place to seek reelection. Peters, however, decided to campaign for the new and safely blue 14th District in the city of Detroit and nearby suburbs, a move that put him on a collision course against fellow Democratic Rep. Hansen Clarke.

Clarke, who is Black and Bengali American, appeared to have an advantage in a primary where a large portion of the electorate was African American. However, much of the local Black political establishment favored Peters, who is white. It didn't help Clarke that two other Black candidates—Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence and former state Rep. Mary Waters—were on the ballot.

Clarke announced late in the campaign that he'd no longer participate in debates after a robocall allegedly insinuated he wasn't Black, though, awkwardly, he still sat in the audience for one candidate event. Peters, who enjoyed a considerable fundraising advantage, ended up beating his colleague 47-35, and—for the one time in his congressional career—had no trouble in the general election.

The following cycle, after longtime Sen. Carl Levin announced he wouldn't seek reelection, Peters sought a promotion to the upper chamber and quickly cleared the primary field. Once again, Peters found himself campaigning in the middle of a terrible environment for Democrats, but just like in 2010, he benefited from a weak foe.

The Republican standard-bearer this time was former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who during the race once fled a room full of inquiring reporters by telling them, "I can't do this. I talk with my hands." Land almost completely avoided the media for the remainder of the campaign, but her paid communications opened her up to widespread mockery.

One much-derided spot featured the Republican telling her audience, "Congressman Gary Peters and his buddies want you to believe that I'm waging war on women. Really? Think about that for a moment." After spending 11 seconds silently sipping her coffee, shaking her head, and looking at her watch, Land followed up, "[A]s a woman, I might know a little bit more about women than Gary Peters."

Land's poor effort, as well as another strong campaign from Peters, helped the Democrat secure a firm lead in the polls even as the political climate got worse and worse. Despite the brewing red wave, national Republicans ultimately abandoned their nominee to focus on other states. Peters triumphed in a 55-41 blowout even as Republicans retook the Senate, an accomplishment that made him the lone new Democratic senator.

Republicans, determined to field a superior candidate for 2020, recruited John James, an Army veteran who had just waged an unexpectedly strong campaign against Sen. Debbie Stabenow. The Peters-James bout was one of the top Senate races in the entire country, and it lived up to the hype: The incumbent held on 50-48 as Joe Biden beat Donald Trump 51-48 in the state.

Democrats also finally reclaimed the Senate that same year, giving Peters his first taste of the majority since his first term in the House more than a decade earlier. He also took on the challenging task of defending that new majority as chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. After an unexpectedly strong 2022 cycle, which saw Democrats net a seat by flipping Pennsylvania, Peters signed on for another tenure at the DSCC.

But the party faced a brutal map in 2024, and this time, Peters' efforts weren't enough to stop the GOP from taking back the Senate. Peters, though, was able to help Rep. Elissa Slotkin win the contest to succeed the retiring Stabenow even as Trump narrowly carried Michigan.

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Election Recaps

FL-01 & FL-06

A pair of candidates endorsed by Donald Trump in two special elections for vacant House seats in northern Florida both handily won their primaries on Tuesday night and will be heavy favorites in the April 1 general election.

In the Pensacola-based 1st District, which had been held by Matt Gaetz prior to his confirmation as far-right TV talk show host, state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis turned back a large field of opponents to secure the GOP nomination. He'll face gun safety activist Gay Valimont, the lone Democrat who ran.

And in the Daytona Beach-area 6th District, which became vacant after Trump tapped Michael Waltz to serve as his national security advisor, state Sen. Randy Fine easily defeated two minor rivals. His Democratic opponent will be teacher Josh Weil. Both districts voted for Trump by wide margins in November.

IA State Senate

Iowa Democrat Mike Zimmer, a construction company owner and former educator, pulled off a shocking upset on Tuesday night when he defeated Republican Katie Whittington in a state Senate district that Donald Trump had carried by 21 points in November.

The 35th District, located in Iowa's easternmost reaches, became vacant in December after Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds tapped Sen. Chris Cournoyer to serve as her new lieutenant governor following the departure of her previous number two, Adam Gregg, to run the Iowa Bankers Association. Cournoyer last won reelection in 2022 61-39, a margin very similar to Donald Trump's 60-39 win two years later, according to calculations by The Downballot.

But that history did not deter Zimmer, a former teacher and principal who emphasized his support for public schools and opposition to vouchers. He wound up defeating Whittington, who's described herself as a "health freedom advocate," by a 52-48 margin—beating the top of the ticket by 25 points.

Whittington, reported Sarah Watson of the Quad City Times, skipped a recent candidate forum and declined to answer the paper's questions about her candidacy. According to Iowa Starting Line's Zachary Oren Smith, Whittington was also slated to participate in a campaign event with white nationalist Steve King, a former congressman from western Iowa, though the gathering was apparently canceled.

Republicans still hold a 34-16 supermajority in the Senate following Zimmer's win, but we last regularly saw massive overperformances like this during Trump's first term in office. It remains to be seen whether Democrats can sustain a similar energy following Trump's return to the White House, but as we have since 2016, The Downballot is closely following all special elections nationwide. You can follow them with us by bookmarking our continually updated tracker.

Governors

RI-Gov

Businesswoman Ashley Kalus, who was the GOP's nominee for governor in 2022, doesn't sound so hot about trying again. When asked in a new interview whether she might run next year, Kalus told the Providence Journal's Katherine Gregg, "I don't know."

"I'm really struggling and hoping that there would be a path politically to win as a Republican in Rhode Island," said Kalus, who lost to Democratic Gov. Dan McKee by a 58-39 margin. "It's a steep hill, and I don't know if we can get over that."

That wasn't always the case. The GOP's victory in 1994, which was the first time the state implemented four-year gubernatorial terms, marked the start of a winning streak that lasted for four straight elections. Even after that run came to an end, Republicans still came close to securing the governorship in both 2010 and 2014.

But the last two showdowns have been particularly unkind to the GOP—McKee's predecessor, Gina Raimondo, rang up a 53-37 win in 2018—and Kalus, however unwillingly, is the only Republican whose name has emerged as a possible contender in 2026.

TN-Gov

Republican Rep. John Rose, who's been considering a bid for Tennessee's open governorship, is telling supporters that he's going to run, reports Andy Sher of State Affairs.

It's the first news we've heard on Rose ever since Sen. Marsha Blackburn began preparing her own gubernatorial campaign in earnest, which included the recent release of an internal poll showing her crushing Rose 71-13 in a hypothetical primary. Based on Sher's reporting, however, Rose appears unfazed.

Meanwhile, columnist Victor Ashe at Knox News says that "speculation" about a possible bid by Tennessee's other senator, Republican Bill Hagerty has "faded" since his name first came up as a possibility last month.

House

GA-09

Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillon launched a primary challenge to far-right Rep. Andrew Clyde on Tuesday, throwing shade at the incumbent by suggesting he's "more concerned with making a point than getting things done."

Couvillon's message has seldom proved successful with Republican voters, but similar attacks brought down Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina in 2022. And as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein notes, Clyde, a member of the Freedom Caucus, has regularly cheesed off GOP leadership and even opposed Donald Trump's priorities at times.

Georgia's 9th District, based in the northeastern part of the state, is deeply conservative, so whoever wins next year's Republican primary will be the overwhelming favorite in the general election. However, like many Southern states, Georgia requires a primary runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the vote.