Morning Digest: House Democrats end 2024 with a net gain after final race flips their way

And Republicans will soon have just a one-vote margin in the lower chamber

California Democrat Adam Gray (center) (credit: Adam Gray campaign)

Leading Off

CA-13

Democrat Adam Gray declared victory on Tuesday evening after final vote tallies gave him a 187-vote lead in his rematch with Republican Rep. John Duarte, who conceded the race for California's 13th District soon after.

Gray's win brings to a close the final unresolved House contest in the nation. It will also give Democrats a net gain of one seat in the chamber following the 2024 elections and two since the most recent midterms.

After taking back the House in 2022, Republicans held a 222-213 advantage, but they saw it shrink after Democrat Tom Suozzi won the special election to replace George Santos following his expulsion. Now that margin will narrow further: Despite taking the Senate and White House in last month's elections, the GOP won 220 seats and Democrats 215.

In practice, though, the Republicans' majority is even smaller and will grow smaller still. Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz's resignation last month amid his brief and abortive quest to become Donald Trump's attorney general shrunk the GOP ranks to 219, and once New York Rep. Elise Stefanik and another Florida congressman, Mike Waltz, leave to join Trump's cabinet, Republicans will have just a 217-215 edge.

As a consequence, Republicans will be able to afford just one absence—and zero defections—to pass any legislation on the House floor without Democratic votes. Under similar circumstances last year following a series of resignations, Speaker Mike Johnson lost multiple votes thanks to hard-right dissidents and regularly had to rely on Democrats to bail him out on must-pass bills.

It's into this maelstrom Gray will head after winning the closest House election of the cycle—and after losing the second-closest two years ago.

We’re trying hard to hit our next milestone on our road to sustainability: 2,000 paid subscribers. We need just 75 more folks to sign up to help us get there. Please consider supporting our unique brand of independent journalism for just 25 cents an issue.

That first matchup pitted Gray, then a member of the state Assembly, against Duarte, a farmer and businessman, for the 13th District, a majority-Latino constituency situated in the middle of California's Central Valley that came open after redistricting scrambled the map. Duarte ultimately won an expensive battle by just 567 votes, and just like this time, the race was the last House election to be called in the entire nation.

Gray, a former member of the state Assembly, quickly filed paperwork to run a second time, and once again, another hotly contested and high-priced clash ensued. Major outside groups on both sides spent almost $25 million on the race while the campaigns themselves were responsible for close to another $10 million. The candidates and their allies traded attacks over their support for farmers, a critical bloc in this heavily agricultural region.

Duarte led on election night, and in the days after saw his advantage grow to as much as 3 points. But later-counted votes steadily eroded his edge until, three weeks after Election Day, Gray took the lead and never relinquished it. While Duarte could have sought a recount, it would have been very unlikely to change the outcome, and he would have had to pay for it himself.

Gray will almost certainly face a serious challenge in two years time, and it could come from Duarte. In comments reported by Joe Cortez of the Turlock Journal, Duarte said that, following his loss, he'd "consider public service in different forms, including running for Congress again."

Senate

NJ-Sen

Democratic Sen. George Helmy says he'll resign his post on Sunday, which would allow Rep. Andy Kim, who just won a full six-year term last month, to be sworn in the following day.

Helmy was appointed to his current job by Gov. Phil Murphy, whom he'd previously served as chief of staff, after then-Sen. Bob Menendez was convicted on federal corruption charges earlier this year. At the time of his installation, Helmy said he'd step down immediately after the November elections so that Murphy could elevate Kim to the Senate early.

But despite popular lore, Kim's head start won't yield much in the way of tangible benefits. Rules changes adopted by both parties in 1980 ended the practice of awarding greater seniority to new senators whose predecessors chose to resign early with the aim of giving their successors a boost. As a result, Kim won't enjoy preferential treatment regarding things like committee assignments or seating on the Senate floor compared to his fellow freshmen.

OH-Sen

What to make of a comment like this? Following a recent report in Axios that he'd "been approached" about a possible Senate campaign, Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman told the Cincinnati Enquirer that unnamed individuals had in fact broached the idea with him. But as for his interest level?

"But no," said Landsman. "Focused on my current job." The first sentence seems, like, well, a "no"! But the second sentence is the sort of thing politicians say when they don't want to rule out a bid. Yeah, we're scratching our heads, too.

Governors

PA-Gov

Republican Stacy Garrity, who just won a second term as state treasurer last month by a 52-45 margin, isn't ruling out a bid against Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro in two years. Garrity tells Axios that she is "focused on being 'the best possible state treasurer.'" So far, no Republicans have stepped forward to challenge Shapiro.

House

FL-01

Air National Guard veteran Jeff Witt just became the latest Republican to exit the upcoming special election for Florida's vacant 1st District, making him the fifth so far. Like all the other dropouts, Witt endorsed Donald Trump's pick, Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis.

Judges

NC Supreme Court

Results of the first recount of North Carolina's extremely close race for the state Supreme Court released on Tuesday morning showed Democratic Justice Allison Riggs' 734-vote margin over Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin remaining exactly as it stood before the review began.

While many of the state's 100 counties found small changes for one or both candidates, in the end, both contenders lost exactly 110 votes each, leaving the gap between them unchanged.

Officials will now conduct a second, partial recount at Griffin's request. Ballots will be inspected manually in a random sample of 3% of precincts in each county. Only if, by extrapolation, this "hand-to-eye" recount would result in a reversal of the overall results would a manual recount of all ballots be undertaken.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

After launching an exploratory campaign for mayor in May, state Sen. Zellnor Myrie now tells Politico that he's formally joining next year's Democratic primary. Myrie is part of a large field of candidates hoping to wrest the nomination from Mayor Eric Adams, who was indicted on federal corruption charges in September.

Sacramento, CA Mayor

Physician Flojaune Cofer conceded the race for mayor of Sacramento on Tuesday, an announcement that came one week after Assemblyman Kevin McCarty, a fellow Democrat, declared victory. McCarty prevailed 50.5-49.5―a margin of about 2,000 votes―in the officially nonpartisan race to lead California's capital city.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

St. Louis County, MO Prosecuting Attorney

A legal showdown is underway between St. Louis County Executive Sam Page and Gov. Mike Parson over which of them should be able to name the next top prosecutor for St. Louis County—a post that will soon become vacant when its current occupant, Democrat Wesley Bell, resigns to take his seat in the House next month.

Page, a Democrat, named former federal prosecutor Cort VanOstran to the job on Tuesday, but Parson and Attorney General Andrew Bailey, both Republicans, filed a lawsuit last week seeking to block Page from installing his preferred replacement.

VanOstran, who recently stepped down as an assistant U.S. attorney, ran for a previous version of Missouri's 2nd Congressional District in 2018 and nearly toppled Republican Rep. Ann Wagner despite receiving almost no help from major Democratic groups. After Wagner's 51-47 escape against VanOstran and another close shave two years later, Republicans gerrymandered the district to include more conservative rural voters that Wagner reportedly denigrated as "wacko birds."

Whether or not VanOstran winds up succeeding Bell, who defeated Rep. Cori Bush in the Democratic primary for the 1st District earlier this year, St. Louis County's next prosecuting attorney will be up for election in 2026. The county, which does not include the neighboring city of the same name, voted for Kamala Harris 61-37 last month.