It's unclear about how it'll be for this year, but the 2020-2022 shift tells us that Ozaukee is moderating the most (still not much). Waukesha is a huge population block of red voters (with a few towns that may be moderating), and Washington is just plain red. Personally - this is just my gut speaking - I place no hope that WOW will be blue enough to help; it's up to the rest of the state to save us.
Eh, the cities of Waukesha, Brookfield, and Menomonee Falls are definitely moderating substantially, and that's 40% of the county's population right there. And Janet Protasiewicz only lost Ozaukee by 5%, so it's become a lot less red.
And WOW becoming less red was a big reason why Biden won Wisconsin in 2020. If WOW had voted the same way it did in 2012, Trump would've won Wisconsin.
They aren't ad red as they were in the Scott Walker Era, especially Ozaukee and Waukesha. Waukesha is quite big, so even a small shift can matter, and did in 2022. Washington County remains unwaiveringly Republican.
Yes. Ozaukee is a lake shore suburb due north, which is trending blue a bit quicker. Waukesha is the biggest and is due west of Milwaukee. It is starting to get more purple pockets, the City of Waukesha and City of Brookfield in particular. Washington is to the northwest of Milwaukee County. It goes from exurban to rural real fast up that way.
Waukesha county moved significantly left from 2012 to 2016, Romney + 34.5 to Trump + 26.7 and then moved significantly left again in 2020 to Trump + 20.8.
The weird thing about it is that while it moved significantly left from 2012 to 2016, Hillary's share of the vote didn't increase at nearly the same rate as she only did a point better than Obama, but Trump's share of the vote was almost 7 points less than Romney. In 2020 the inverse happened where Trump's vote share didn't really change much, he did 0.4 point worse but essentially everyone that went 3rd party in 2016 went to Biden as his vote share was 5.4 points higher than Hillary's. It makes me wonder if 40/60 will be where Waukesha settles at for the foreseeable future.
Pretty sure the future's brighter than that. Waukesha's one of 154 (5%) of counties where Trump 2020 failed to match Romney's vote total. It's one of four Romney counties with 100k+ votes in that group, along with Cobb, GA; Johnson, KS; and Oklahoma, OK. Good company to have.
You might be right, I'm open to a lot of different possibilities and Waukesha's weird asymmetry makes me wonder if maybe we don't see the movement based on the surface level point that comparing 2012 to 2020 the state votes more than 6 point to the right while moving almost 14 points left one would expect.
Looking at the numbers, a plausible reading of them would be that a bunch of Romney voters decided to go 3rd party in 2016 and then those same people went to Biden in 2020.
Are the WOW counties moderating their GOP support? Or are they still bloody red?
It's unclear about how it'll be for this year, but the 2020-2022 shift tells us that Ozaukee is moderating the most (still not much). Waukesha is a huge population block of red voters (with a few towns that may be moderating), and Washington is just plain red. Personally - this is just my gut speaking - I place no hope that WOW will be blue enough to help; it's up to the rest of the state to save us.
Eh, the cities of Waukesha, Brookfield, and Menomonee Falls are definitely moderating substantially, and that's 40% of the county's population right there. And Janet Protasiewicz only lost Ozaukee by 5%, so it's become a lot less red.
And WOW becoming less red was a big reason why Biden won Wisconsin in 2020. If WOW had voted the same way it did in 2012, Trump would've won Wisconsin.
They aren't ad red as they were in the Scott Walker Era, especially Ozaukee and Waukesha. Waukesha is quite big, so even a small shift can matter, and did in 2022. Washington County remains unwaiveringly Republican.
Washington is the most exurban/pseudo-rural of the three, correct?
Yes. Ozaukee is a lake shore suburb due north, which is trending blue a bit quicker. Waukesha is the biggest and is due west of Milwaukee. It is starting to get more purple pockets, the City of Waukesha and City of Brookfield in particular. Washington is to the northwest of Milwaukee County. It goes from exurban to rural real fast up that way.
Waukesha county moved significantly left from 2012 to 2016, Romney + 34.5 to Trump + 26.7 and then moved significantly left again in 2020 to Trump + 20.8.
The weird thing about it is that while it moved significantly left from 2012 to 2016, Hillary's share of the vote didn't increase at nearly the same rate as she only did a point better than Obama, but Trump's share of the vote was almost 7 points less than Romney. In 2020 the inverse happened where Trump's vote share didn't really change much, he did 0.4 point worse but essentially everyone that went 3rd party in 2016 went to Biden as his vote share was 5.4 points higher than Hillary's. It makes me wonder if 40/60 will be where Waukesha settles at for the foreseeable future.
Pretty sure the future's brighter than that. Waukesha's one of 154 (5%) of counties where Trump 2020 failed to match Romney's vote total. It's one of four Romney counties with 100k+ votes in that group, along with Cobb, GA; Johnson, KS; and Oklahoma, OK. Good company to have.
You might be right, I'm open to a lot of different possibilities and Waukesha's weird asymmetry makes me wonder if maybe we don't see the movement based on the surface level point that comparing 2012 to 2020 the state votes more than 6 point to the right while moving almost 14 points left one would expect.
Looking at the numbers, a plausible reading of them would be that a bunch of Romney voters decided to go 3rd party in 2016 and then those same people went to Biden in 2020.
2016-2020 Waukesha moved 5.9 to the left, Ozaukee 6.9 to the left, Washington 2.1 to the left.