300 Comments

In our discussions today, let's make sure we don't forget the immortal words of Skaje:

As the years go by we'll more easily see 2020's vote method polarization for the massive outlier that it was. Simply no way to recreate the dynamic where paranoid liberals, many of whom had voted election day their whole lives, all rushed to mail in their ballots ASAP because of covid and fears over post-office delays...while at the same time the GOP president was telling everyone mail voting was fraud and that true patriots needed to wait to vote in person on election day, since covid wasn't a big deal. The amount of reversion that was bound to happen this year was inevitable. Republicans like voting early now. Democrats are fine with waiting longer to vote, or just showing up in person next week Tuesday. Any comparison to 2020 is absolutely useless.

And as Paleo reminded us as well, independents also vote.

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In SC, there is no party registration, so technically everyone is an independent...

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Are you trying to deprive us of our right to have an anxiety-stricken meltdown and total panic, even though it’s based on false assumptions and not supported by any rational examination of the data??

/s

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You could have just shorted this to "Are you trying to deprive us of being Democrats" and kept the same meaning...

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At some point hoping for a late turnout surge seems like clinging to straws--or assuming the left is going to vote en masse on election day to make up for early vote deficits.

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This is exactly the sort of unconstructive, evidence-free comment I was referring to when I mentioned yesterday that some people were spamming these threads with repetitive doom.

Please do not make comments like this.

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The early vote deficits are concerning. Pretending they don't exist won't make them go away. The only thing I will concede is that, now COVID is over, vote patterns may be different.

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Do you realize that your final sentence destroys your entire argument?

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No. I said “may”. It still doesn’t mean those voters will necessarily magically show up.

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https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1852048096760349143?t=j56wJ-02tLa6Kh32MMBdBg&s=19

"Republicans still have a sizable amount of rural turnout to run through, and at this rate, Clark County Democrats will not be able to keep up."

Facts.

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

Clark County Democrats won’t be able to keep up?

We don’t know that. Official Election Day is still on Tuesday. Once again, premature assessments.

These are not facts. Just pure speculation at this point.

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So nobody else has to look it up, Michael Pruser works for Decision Desk HQ. That organization used to be reasonable but has unfortunately taken a hard turn to the right ever since its former head, Brandon Finnigan, left. I'm still on their e-mail list, and their "analysis", if you can call it that, is very hard-right and highly misleading. I wouldn't trust what they say now.

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Thanks for doing the due diligence here; in no way is that proper usage of the word 'Facts'(it's getting tiresome as well, so thanks again for updating the source)

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

Also, Decision Desk HQ committed a major FAIL by saying Kamala Harris has a 47% chance of winning.

Seriously!

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How do you know that's wrong?

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You are wrong, simply wrong with using the word 'Facts' because in no way is it a fact, it's conjecture only(and it's from a right-wing source); it could be or could be not true (we shall see);but, you stating non-facts as facts is ridiculous

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Wait, you're going to accuse someone of being repetitive when you post that quote from Skaje every day?

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Nov 1·edited Nov 1

He wouldn’t post it every day if people didn’t need to read it every day after posting the same debunked bs to derail the left website here. There’s an easy solution. Stop doing that and he won’t post the comment. See? Simple. That it’s not for many here speaks volumes on some people’s intent and whether they do want a constructive discussion (they don’t btw).

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OK, but how would he know that people are going to keep posting the same bunked bs since his is the first comment every day?

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Weeks of the same bs on a daily basis, then two days of the repost with the bs minimized. Seems pretty simple.

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Just back from my former home in PR and the governor's race there is brewing up to be very interesting. The PNP (statehood) party candidate, Jenniffer Gonzalez, is narrowly ahead in polls (2%ish) over *not* the PPD (status quo) party, but the PIP (independence) party candidate, Juan Dalmau. Dalmau had forged an alliance with other minor parties and many PNPs who dislike Gonzalez. She offers statehood, corporatism, and conservatism. Only the first item really has any broad appeal in PR. Dalmau has forged his alliance by pledging to solve problems first and worry about status after major issues are fixed. That's an approach lots of people have been hoping for, for decades.

In addition, a new 3rd party (Dignidad) is also pulling votes from the PNP. Their candidate has a track record for fixing things locally, like the municipal water system, but the party is very religiously conservative (antiLGBT, pro-forced birth), so they are also siphoning votes from PNP and socially conservative PPD voters.

Everyone I know there under age 35 is voting for Dalmau as are many over age 35. Even if he loses, if he pulls 30%, it'll be a massive disruption to politics as usual in PR.

Ranked choice voting would really be a good option for PR, because both the PNP and thr PPD have been terrible and corrupt for decades.

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Is PPD not running anybody this year, then?

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They are running someone. Can't remember his name and that was often the response of the folks I talked to as well. Apparently there was a debate and he couldn't define "estado libre asociado" which is the status quo situation and he's been sinking in the polls ever since.

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Oooooof. You can’t miss that layup and survive in PR politics

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Jesús Manuel Ortiz is his name.

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No second coming for Jesús?

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Thanks very much for the report! Is there any likelihood of a credible, non-rigged election result in Puerto Rico, considering this investigative report - https://periodismoinvestigativo.com/2024/09/theft-votes-elections-puerto-rico/ - and others covered in https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024/10/12/2274548/-Caribbean-Matters-Puerto-Rico-grapples-with-voter-fraud?

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I was born and raised in Caguas,PR and I think what this report attributes to fraud, is more often attributed to inept government employees. I think we will have a fair election. I’m turning out to vote, and in PR Election Day is a holiday and everything is closed. This is easy to do as we only hold elections every four years.

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Election Day as a national holiday – what a brilliant idea! Yet another idea that the USA should adopt from a civilized country.

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It’s nice. We don’t do early voting etc, and everyone knows go at like 11 am because the lines of elderly are horrendously long before 9 am.

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Might be a good idea, but early and absentee voting are probably more important.

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Granted, I wouldn’t trade those for making Election Day a holiday, I would want these as well – plus Ranked Choice Voting everywhere.

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Im not super supportive of ranked choice. I’m voting for Dalmau and wouldn’t consider the other three parties. That being said I wouldn’t oppose it. As far as absentee ballots I’m fairly certain we have those. But Puerto Rico is a communal place and we like Election Day. It’s a time for everyone to come together, talk, and celebrate our culture. Early voting would harm that.

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Thanks for giving your take on this. Inept government employees can mess things up, though, don't you think?

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Of course. Puerto Rico has a strong centralized government, for example, the territory department of education controls all schools. We don’t have local school boards. With the strong centralization from San Juan you see the ineptitude increase the further you get out from it.

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Were you part of the 5000 car caravan for Dalmau last Sunday?

Others on thread...you haven't truly experienced an election until you've lived through one in PR.

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I was! And J go had her car rally in front of my apartment. I live near the Caguas plaza so I’m at ground zero.

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Dalmau may win but I wonder about his strength outside of the metro/Caguas. Even in the Metro, Dalmau’s main strength is people under 35 and that’s not a huge voting block in PR. We are also voting on another statehood ballot measure which I will be voting for independence.

At least for me, we gave the US the chance to make it right, 100 years, and they put la Junta in charge. We are suffering, struggling, and at least for my family, none of us believe the US will grant us statehood.

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I spent most of my time in the west part if the island, and otherwise with Utuadeños, so I think Dalmau has strength outside of metro area, though it is true that I didn't hang out much with folks > 40 anywhere.

After experiencing the utter incompetence of acuaductos, prepa, dtop, and the dept of education in PR for 20 years, I thought the junta was a good idea...for about week. By then it was clear that the junta was prioritizing the needs of triple exempt bond holders over the needs of the people.

There are times though that I think 100 or so IRS agents busting tax cheats would be the best thing ever for the PR budget. When my wife and I were there, we made, together, a little over $100k and supposedly were in the top 5% wealthiest families on the island with that income. Since we had a govt paycheck, we couldn't cheat with cash income.

All the PNP statehood referenda are performative though without an act of Congress to recognize results. Pedro Rosello almost got that through. Can't remember if it was Don Young in the house or Hayley Barbour in the Senate that torpedoed it. I think it was Barbour, because MS would have lost its status as poorest state.

Ivan, what's your prediction for the PR Gov election? And Resident Commissioner?

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My heart hopes for Dalmau but my gut says J-Go wins but with a very small plurality. You lived here so you know that the two major parties don’t exactly track with mainland parties. J-Go herself isn’t as conservative as a mainland Republican.

PR itself is very homogenous. I’m gay and out and nobody cares as long as my husband and I attend mass every Sunday. Even when they talk about the anti-LGBT stuff here, it’s heavily focused on the T, lesbian and gay men don’t get nearly as much crap even in the smaller towns. So while Project Dignity exists, it struggles to capture Puerto Rican votes. We have evangelicals here, but the concept itself just isn’t popular like it is in the States.

I actually think it’s possible the Resident Commissioner ends up being from the PPD. Pablo Hernández Rivera is running and he’s the grandson of Rafael Hernández Colón, the governor off and on from 77-93.

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

Looks like the LDP is on track to retain tenuous control of the Japanese government. Leadership from the LDP and DPFP, which quadrupled its representation in the lower house and is now the third-largest opposition party, agreed to a "partial coalition" through which the parties will cooperate on fiscal reforms. DPFP will presumably support whoever the LDP nominates to be prime minister when the Diet reconvenes on November 11. So the LDP and Komeito will lead a minority government while essentially maintaining a confidence and supply agreement with DPFP. Ishiba will look to stay on as prime minister, though his party could very well cut him loose. Even if he prevails, I can't imagine his premiership lasting more than a year, and we'll likely have another election sooner rather than later.

Personally, I'm surprised DPFP is willing to prop up the LDP with minimal fuss, given the latter's deep unpopularity. This could very well work out for them if they receive credit for popular reforms (they're demanding a raise in the threshold at which the income tax takes effect, which will hugely benefit low-wage workers). Still, the optics are very risky, as they aggressively campaigned against the LDP ahead of the election. Interesting times ahead.

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I can see the logic for DPFP. They're far enough in the back that they are unlikely to gain enough to be at the top of a coalition, or a major partner. If LDP stays unpopular then most of the punishment in the next election will go to them instead of the minor party that helped prop them up — especially as DPFP is not a full coalition partner.

In exchange they hope to get some policy wins. Small risk, small reward.

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Counterpoint: how did it work out for the Liberals to prop up the Tories in the UK?

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

When's the last time Lib-Dem held power in the UK? The most recent Lib-Dem PM I can find is David Lloyd George, who was PM from 1916-1922. They had not been exercising power for a long, long time.

Yes, they did a lot worse after serving in a coalition government... But today they're back ahead of where they were in 2010. They spent 2015-2024 as largely irrelevant, but in exchange they got to be in government for five years. If they weren't in government for those five years, they likely would still have been irrelevant, just with more seats.

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Interesting perspective, but that ignores the possibility that they might have broken through as a principled opposition party.

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Indeed. And that was back when the then Liberal Party - they became the Lib Dems in the 1980s when the Liberal Party merged with the Social Democratic Party - was THE major party of the left in the UK. It was only when Labour supplanted them as the main part of the British left that Churchill crossed back to the Tories. It's interesting how Labour (ironically spelt Labor in Australia) became the dominant left wing party of the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, but not in Canada. Maybe due to American influence, but the closest equivalent in Canada is the NDP.

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I thought the degree to which the Keir Starmer-led Labour Party (and, earlier, the Tony Blair-led Labour Party) is a left-wing party was open to debate?

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They're still to the left of the Tories.

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Thursday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.

5,991 new requests, D+329. Final request advantage now down to D+486,239

75,578 ballot returns, D+7,767. Overall ballot advantage now D+387,810. 2.2k short of the (once) popular firewall, 62.2k below my firewall

Total Requests (FINAL?):

D - 1,198,727 (54.68%)

R - 712,488 (32.50%)

O - 281,226 (12.81%)

Total - 2,192,441

Total Returns:

D - 917,896 (76.57% return rate)

R - 530,086 (74.40%)

O - 177,724 (63.20%)

Total - 1,625,706

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Best day for Dems in a while. 74.15% of ballots have been received. Allegheny hit 75% returned. No counties are at 90% but Forest is at 89%. Luzerne is the last county to hit 50%. We all know about the lawsuit in Erie (16,350 ballots outstanding/missing, D+2,724).

LOB:

D - 176,956 (63.01%)

R - 50,493 (27.68%)

O - 57,581 (55.63%)

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Could you say more about Erie County? Is this cock-up or sabotage? What remedy is being implemented or considered? Or is it just a shoulder-shrug and "Well, without a mail ballot, I guess y’all will just have to vote on Election Day."

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This was an issue I had wondered about three weeks ago. According to the figures out of Erie, 16,350 ballots are still outstanding, about 39% of all requests & are closer to an equal distribution among the parties but half are still for Dems. The problem is that this system wasn't meant to handle 162k mail ballots let alone 1.625 million ballots. The GOP doesn't want to fix it. This lawsuit should have been filed last week.

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both parties have filed suits, and apparently the issues is with a vendor working for hte USPS, from what I've read

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Part of the Democratic groundgame, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, is focused on helping voters "cure" their faulty ballots. For instance this rather-impressive rate of curing in Allegheny:

"Allegheny County ballot curing: County officials told us today they've sent 1,190 ballots back to voters for defects, and 738 (62%) have been fixed and returned so far."

– Charlie Wolfson

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Yeah If I can encourage one thing people can do from any non swing state is a phonebanking shift on curing ballots, it's calls to solid Harris voters and makes a huge difference.

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God damn! The Harris Camp is certainly got a badass ground game in PA.

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Actually in all 7 Battleground states(our GOTV in Florida,not a battleground, without national campaign money is actually not bad for a state that is trending in the opposite direction)we have a badass ground game

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I am still being cautious about FL knowing what happened in the 2022 midterms as far as Democratic Party turnout. However, I have faith the GOTV game will increase the margins for Harris in the state even if she loses.

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Though technically, if she loses, we hope she decreases the margins. :-)

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Another day, another great turnout for City of Milwaukee in person voting. A new high for this cycle with 6,626 people voting early. Also 1,000 new registrations at the polls.

That means that as of Wednesday Milwaukee will (most likely) have crossed 80,000 ballots returned, meeting the expectation for the entire early voting cycle with 4 days of in-person early voting remaining. There’s an outside chance we hit 100,000 early votes in the city.

Anecdotally, the Harris ground game in the inner city is the best I’ve seen since I’ve lived here. They have people knocking on doors everywhere. I feel like they are doing everything they can, and fingers crossed it will be enough.

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Harris's ground game in Milwaukee will have to be pretty darn good if it's going to surpass Obama's 2012 ground game there, which was absolutely superb. My hunch is that his campaign took all their Chicago-area volunteers who had gone to Indiana in 2008 (helping turn it blue) and sent them to Milwaukee in 2012. Those volunteers somehow squeezed 332,000 Democratic voters out of Milwaukee County, a record that still stands (Biden got only 317,000 despite substantially improving in the suburban areas). The impact of the Obama ground game is particularly stark if you look just at the city of Milwaukee - he got 227,000 votes there in 2012 compared with a mere 194,000 for Biden eight years later. If Harris can actually replicate Obama's turnout in Milwaukee, that would go a long way to her winning Wisconsin.

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Declining population might account for most of that vote loss. Milwaukee is down to less than 600,000 and continuing to drop.

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Funny enough, Milwaukee has gained about ~150 people since 2020

But, lost 3% of population since 2010, which is probably a huge part of said discrepancy

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This is a huge part of why the raw numbers won’t hit Obama levels, even if we have great turnout. The inner city is hollowing out, but downtown, the lakeshore, south side and areas bordering the suburbs are holding their own.

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Let's face facts, if it weren't for the fact that Dane County is continuing to grow by leaps and bounds, we'd be dead in the water in the Badger State.

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As a former Madison resident I agree, but I'd also tip the hat to many of the mid-sized cities (Eau Claire, La Crosse, Stevens Point) that are keeping it real - and even some of the small towns (Viroqua) beating back the trends and staying blue despite the trends.

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But is she putting her volunteers in the back of U-Haul vans like the other side?

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Regarding the ground game in WI, has the Harris camp been primarily focusing on cities and suburbs? Or have rural communities been included as well?

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MAGA meltdowns about high female vote:

“Male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster. Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over.”

. – Mike Cernovich

“Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple. If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW."

. – Charlie Kirk

Quote of the Day:

"If MAGA didn’t have double standards, they wouldn’t have standards at all."

– Seth Allison

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Even worse is Johnnny McAtee’s video he dropped where he smugly says “oh you thought we meant all-mail voting? More like all-MALE voting.”

The mask is fully off

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Republicans taking the mask off might as well be the summary of them for this election cycle. The unhinged far-right is on full display, seemingly zero effort to downplay how extreme they are.

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GENDER GAP

14.0 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,387,977 more women have voted there than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender turnout gap grew by 101,929 since Tuesday. Gender turnout gap is:

– PA: +13% female

– MI: +12%

– GA: +12%

– NC: +11%

– WI: +8%

Good for Harris!

https://nitter.poast.org/ThirdWayKessler/status/1851799604829843556#m

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Great for PA and MI. Part of the reason that I predicted them to be Kamalas best states the other day.

The worst states for Kamala will be AZ and NV where the gender gap right now is far below the rest of the swing states mentioned above. Mark my words.

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

NV more than AZ simply because AZ has growing and changing demographics. AZ as a state also has a larger and more robust economy.

NV also took longer than many states to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. It was two years ago that Governor Steve Sisolak lost re-election while Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto won re-election by less than 1% points.

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I hope that the high disproportionately female turnout in PA is the truth and not a bluff.

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Well, it’s an understatement that women voter turnout will be high.

The question is, how much higher % wise will be the margins between women and men voters in PA? That’s what I’d be curious to know.

I don’t know if this is the case with cities in PA but I know women in cities around the US are becoming slight majorities in terms of voter demographics.

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GOOD! GOOD!

Exactly what we want to hear. As long as Democrats can benefit at the presidential and downballot level in PA, Trump being in the race was a wise thing to do be doing.

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Good morning to the woman I saw driving to work this morning who had what looked like a small lawn sign that said “Sununu for Governor” taped to the back of her rear windshield, covering approx. 60% of it. I live on Long Island. Sununu is not running for re-election. The car had New York plates. The whole thing got a very big “huh” from me.

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Not many years ago, I recall seeing a McGovern bumper sticker on a vintage car.

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*sung to the tune of Don Henley's "Boys of Summer"*

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Or maybe Charlie Daniels' "Uneasy Rider", which I believe actually references McGovern bumper stickers specifically.

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At least that person isn't in New Hampshire anymore.

I wonder if the sign may have been referring to John H. Sununu, Chris's dad, who was Governor of NH in the '80s.

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

Gallup polled voter enthusiasm and Democrats are much more enthused to vote than Republicans and even higher than 2008!

https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1851977098023366972

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Cool, but is any of Gallup's polling credible?

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

you don’t need to take only Gallup’s words. Here is Rep. Strategist Margret Hoover on CNN “I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal, the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be.”

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/there-is-concern-at-the-trump-campaign-veteran-gop-strategist-says-internal-polling-is-giving-them-pause/

Republicans are usually all bluster so this may be a canary in the coalmine of what is to come

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I think she’s a never trumpet

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And also happens to be the wife of NY-01 Democratic Candidate John Avlon.

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Questionably regarding horserace politics. If one takes their recent measures of party ID than Republican advantages there might cancel out greater Democratic enthusiasm --but their party ID numbers have yo-yoed so much lately for no apparent reason (and often been redder than in probably any credible nonpartisan poll) that I can't take them seriously on that question. (Imagine if they were still directly polling the presidential horserace...)

But from reports from around the country they may be right, or at least in the ballpark, regarding greater Democratic enthusiasm. Which would of course be great, but we'll need to run well among "independents" (which can of course mean almost anything) in swing states to seal the deal.

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I’ll see your Republican ID advantages and raise you Democratic-leaning Independents & millions of pissed-of women voters (including GOP women).

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And maybe there isn't a Republican party ID advantage. Gallup suddenly bounced in our direction, with a 48 D-47 R showing for October 14-27. By contrast, it was 49 R-42 D for October 1-12.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

What happened to cause such a shift? Probably nothing--and their early October figure was likely well off base.

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Biggest horserace polling memory of them is them being bullish on Romney in 2012.

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Gallup stopped doing horserace polling years ago.

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From my standpoint, I respect Gallup’s polling although if we’re talking about voter enthusiasm being higher than in 2008 I think that’s a stretch.

2008 was in a less polarized environment and Obama was a once-in-a-lifetime presidential candidate who had universal appeal that I believe Kamala Harris, with all due respect, doesn’t have as much. 2024 is in a more polarized environment so enthusiasm toward Harris, while I don’t doubt is high, is in light of the fact that Biden dropped his presidential bid. This is a much different circumstance.

Anyway, I’d exercise caution regarding comparing voter enthusiasm of 2024 vs 2008.

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Fired up! Ready to go!!

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For you Econ stats nerds out there, October’s core PCE tagged in at 2.1% today, the lowest since January 2021. We’ll see how tomorrow’s BLS report compared to what ADP printed, but between inflation and the Q3 GDP number, and the last six months of stock market rises, Harris couldn’t have asked for better last-minute economic news

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I'm not familiar with the acronym, is PCE is Personal Consumption Expenditures, which is an inflation index?

I'm a nerd for data but cannot claim any expertise on economics.

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Yes. It’s regarded as the Fed’s “preferred” metric since it’s not as noisy/arbitrary as CPI

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Imho, the Fed ought to also have a metric for CEO pay rise for, say, companies above 10,000 employees. For a truly radical idea, the Fed could deem large increases as "inflationary".

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They could. But they arent. Whether CEOs should get as much as they do (either as a matter of social or corporate policy), they definitely dont make enough at these huge companies to impacts the price of anything.

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I humbly disagree. Very high increases in CEO compensation, combined with a sense of fairness, help drive employee wage demands – which in turn impact inflation.

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Cue the Republicans saying Biden is cooking the books in 3...2...1...

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

Flashbacks to October 2012, when the late Jack Welch of GE complained that Obama was fudging a sudden drop in the unemployment rate from 8.1 to 7.8 in one month just in advance of his reelection. (Sure, Jack, so can you explain why he kept it in the 8's and 9's--at one point 10%--for virtually his entire term until then, allowing perceptions of a bad economy and poor job growth to harden?)

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Jack Welch, the "brilliant" business man who almost single handily destroyed GE.

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Like Carly Fiorina, who destroyed HP.

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And there's always Elon Musk, who would probably best save or improve his reputation now by blasting off in his SpaceX and never returning.

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As an autistic person I am embarrassed by Elon Musk.

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I worked for GE under Wlesh and Jeff Immelt. They were both douchebags, but GE survived them.

GE is no longer a company as of Apriln2024.

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Weird. I didn't know that. I see that it was broken into three separate companies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric:

GE's final CEO Larry Culp announced in November 2021 that General Electric was to be broken up into three separate, public companies—GE Aerospace, GE HealthCare, and GE Vernova—by 2024. The new companies are respectively focused on aerospace, healthcare, and energy. GE HealthCare's spin-off was finalized on January 4, 2023. This was followed by the spin-off of GE's portfolio of energy businesses on April 2, 2024, into GE Vernova. Following these transactions, General Electric Company changed its trading name to GE Aerospace, pivoted to aviation, and ceased to exist as a conglomerate.

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As I often say "ah am a LIBERAL, ah ain't supposed to understand how money works."

(But thank you for keeping us up to speed as we can get.)

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

I expect the job numbers this month will likely be on par or higher than September's. September's jobs report was a big surprise. Fall hiring can be greater than summer hiring depending on the economy.

The Federal Reserve interest rate cut likely has made a difference for October but we'll have to see in the coming days what the job numbers are looking like.

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

Does anyone know what share of GOP women Biden received in 2020? Looking for this number but haven't seen it reported anywhere. I know Trump improved with women overall from 2016-2020, but specifically trying to establish what the baseline is for Harris to improve upon post-Dobbs

EDIT: According to CNN Trump won GOP women 95-5....seems like a good baseline!

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CNN/SSRS (10.23-10.28.2024), LV:

GA:

🟥 Trump: 48%

🟦 Harris: 47%

🟪 Other: 3%

NC:

🟦 Harris: 48%

🟥Trump: 47%

🟪 Other: 3%

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1852020265581953527

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@CNN poll - Georgia

🔴 Trump 48% (+1)

🔵 Harris 47%

🔵 Last poll - Harris +1

SSRS #B - LV - 10/28

@CNN poll - North Carolina

🔵 Harris 48% (+1)

🔴 Trump 47%

🟡 Last poll - Tie

SSRS #B - LV - 10/28

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CNN/SSRS (10.23-10.28.2024), LV:

NC-Gov:

🟦 Josh Stein: 53%

🟥 M. Robinson: 37%

https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1852022409655705698

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Interesting piece about migration stats from NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/30/upshot/voters-moving-polarization.html

The graph showing the political leanings of new arrivals is very instructive. Among swing states: PA, WI, MI, & GA are getting bluer. NC & NV are about even and AZ is getting redder.

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Huh, AZ is kinda counterintuitive, though with it being a retiree Mecca I guess it makes a sort of sense

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When did retirees become so Republican? I remember that they used to be a core part of the Democratic base. When did they realign to the GOP?

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I think those days are gone...WWII/New Deal coalition is largely out of the electorate and Boomers skew GOP.

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At least in this election, it looks like Gen Z does more than boomers.

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Quite possibly among Gen Z males...though we'll see what the exits say

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Which is something that we will need to address. Unfortunately the zero sum argument that males are being left behind by Democrats sells very well with them.

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My read on polling of Gen Z is that Gen Z men are a bit more GOP than Millennial men and a bit less than Boomer men; the difference is that Gen Z women are *way* more Democratic in comparison to Millennial women and Boomer women in terms of where the rough gender gap lands

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Florida anecdotally -- worked there in the 2012, 2014, 2016 cycles when South Florida was still reasonably full of what you'd imagine are the Del Boca Vista / Helen & Morty Seinfeld demos -- older liberal folks from NY, NJ, CT who were retiring to a sunny climate. Trouble is, even then most of them were in their 80s and 90s (I had a few solid volunteers sadly pass away during the campaigns). That FDR generation is dying out and being replaced in FL by cranky conservatives from the midwest.

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The 2000 election was the peak of the Del Boca Vista/Helen & Morty Seinfeld era in south Florida. It started to show cracks quickly thereafter as they aged out and became outnumbered by the next generation of oldster newcomers.

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Most people don't change their ideology once they reach adulthood (though some certainly do). Those born early-1930s to 1948 and from 1955 to 1979 tend to be Republicans, while those born to the early-1930s, 1948 to 1954, and since 1979 tend to be Democrats.

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Why would people born during the Roosevelt administration tend to be Republicans?

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Because they came of age in the Eisenhower years amidst McCarthyism and Pax Americana.

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Just as my generation - Generation Y - came of age during the Bush the Younger administration and thus associate the Republican Party with the failures of Iraq and the Wall Street crash.

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I guess those opposed to McCarthyism mostly voted for Adlai Stevenson twice, like my parents did?

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Because they came of age during the Truman administration and they associate the Democratic Party with the rise of the "red menace" in the late 1940s/early 1950s.

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My parents were born in 1929 and 1932 and neither was ever a Republican. They lived through the war and like other American children, they contributed to the war effort. The fact that they attained adulthood during the Truman and Eisenhower years didn't override their childhood. Are you sure the heavily Republican cohort goes back as far as you're saying? Someone born in 1932 knew no president except for FDR until they were about 12.

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I'd say that younger gen X (including me) tend to be more in line with Millennial voting trends. Difference is if you came of age politically during Reagan or Clinton.

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If you are old enough to remember Carter, you're more likely to be Republican though. The country was simply done with him in 1980.

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Right, but the youngest voters in the 1992 election were born in 1974 and were only 6 when Reagan was first elected.

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Yeah, it's a razor's edge. I grew up with Reagan (and mostly liked him), but then my first vote was Bill Clinton (and that hellscape Pat Buchanan convention speech sealed the deal with my affiliation).

I've generally drifted a bit more left each passing year.

EDIT - birth year is 1973

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I really agree with this and I see it on Facebook. I was born in 1976 and lived in near suburban Philadelphia between 4th grade and 12th grade. The people who are older than me that I see on Facebook (typically graduated from late 1980s to early 1990s) are MUCH more Republican, particularly men. A lot have moved to places like the Philadelphia exurbs and Florida. By contrast, the people more my sister's age, who graduated from the late 1990s to early 2000s are almost across the board Democrats/liberals. Interestingly, this younger group has tended to stay in the near Philadelphia suburbs or the city itself. Or if they have moved, it is more likely to somewhere like New York City.

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When the Silent Generation and older Baby Boomers became the retirees.

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The most conservative cohort of living Americans are late Boomers/early GenXers. Those late Boomers are into their 70s now. So the next 10-15 years of retirees will be pretty conservative and drive places with high retire populations like FL and AZ to be redder than they otherwise would have been.

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I don't know how you define "late Boomers" but we are not in our 70s yet. People born in 1954 or before are 70 and over. Any birth year after that we are in our 60s. As much as it pains me to think of my generation as the most conservative one still around, don't make me older than I am! I was born in 1958 and am age 66. Barack Obama (1961), Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (both 1964) are all late boomers...

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I agree completely; I was born in 1965(which I believe is considered the first year of Generation X);apologies if I am wrong but I am thinking our group is the most conservative up until those born around 1972(I would say those born from around 1956-1972)

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The second half off the boomers so 1955-1964. So the oldest late Boomers will be 70 next year. So you are right - I was a little ungenerous in my estimate.

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GEORGIA EARLY VOTE UPDATE

As of yesterday, 3,489,779 people have voted in Georgia, representing a turnout of 48.3% of all registered voters. We will probably pass 50% of all registered voters today.

As was probably expected, the votes in the final week of early voting skew very young. People under 45 constitute just over 40% of all votes cast this week, compared to around 20% the first week. Hispanic turnout is also noticeably up this week, but it still lags far behind everyone else.

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Hmmmm...wonder why Hispanic turnout is up this week of all weeks....

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Pissed-off Hispanics voting for Kamala?

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Here is hoping!

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Would be amazing!

I mean, it really doesn't matter at this point whether the Hispanic voters are voting for Harris because they're mad or not. Happy to get more votes for Harris so Trump can whine more than he did in 2020.

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Wisconsin update: I want to apologize for having had incorrect figures on previous days. The mistake I was making had the effect of double-counting in-person ballots. Although the directional trends were valid, the raw numbers were not. Here's an accurate report of turnout relative to 2020:

Statewide: 37%

WOW counties: 50%

Dane: 47%

Milwaukee and non-WOW burbs: 40% (note: Milwaukee city is around 33%)

Fox Valley: 40%

Other high outliers: La Crosse at 43%, not much else above statewide turnout. Trumpy rural counties are quite low (maybe low to mid 20s overall).

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Oct 31·edited Oct 31

Are the WOW counties moderating their GOP support? Or are they still bloody red?

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It's unclear about how it'll be for this year, but the 2020-2022 shift tells us that Ozaukee is moderating the most (still not much). Waukesha is a huge population block of red voters (with a few towns that may be moderating), and Washington is just plain red. Personally - this is just my gut speaking - I place no hope that WOW will be blue enough to help; it's up to the rest of the state to save us.

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Eh, the cities of Waukesha, Brookfield, and Menomonee Falls are definitely moderating substantially, and that's 40% of the county's population right there. And Janet Protasiewicz only lost Ozaukee by 5%, so it's become a lot less red.

And WOW becoming less red was a big reason why Biden won Wisconsin in 2020. If WOW had voted the same way it did in 2012, Trump would've won Wisconsin.

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They aren't ad red as they were in the Scott Walker Era, especially Ozaukee and Waukesha. Waukesha is quite big, so even a small shift can matter, and did in 2022. Washington County remains unwaiveringly Republican.

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Washington is the most exurban/pseudo-rural of the three, correct?

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Yes. Ozaukee is a lake shore suburb due north, which is trending blue a bit quicker. Waukesha is the biggest and is due west of Milwaukee. It is starting to get more purple pockets, the City of Waukesha and City of Brookfield in particular. Washington is to the northwest of Milwaukee County. It goes from exurban to rural real fast up that way.

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Waukesha county moved significantly left from 2012 to 2016, Romney + 34.5 to Trump + 26.7 and then moved significantly left again in 2020 to Trump + 20.8.

The weird thing about it is that while it moved significantly left from 2012 to 2016, Hillary's share of the vote didn't increase at nearly the same rate as she only did a point better than Obama, but Trump's share of the vote was almost 7 points less than Romney. In 2020 the inverse happened where Trump's vote share didn't really change much, he did 0.4 point worse but essentially everyone that went 3rd party in 2016 went to Biden as his vote share was 5.4 points higher than Hillary's. It makes me wonder if 40/60 will be where Waukesha settles at for the foreseeable future.

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Pretty sure the future's brighter than that. Waukesha's one of 154 (5%) of counties where Trump 2020 failed to match Romney's vote total. It's one of four Romney counties with 100k+ votes in that group, along with Cobb, GA; Johnson, KS; and Oklahoma, OK. Good company to have.

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2016-2020 Waukesha moved 5.9 to the left, Ozaukee 6.9 to the left, Washington 2.1 to the left.

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