That is correct. NE law already allowed felons who had served their time to vote two years after completion of a sentence. A new law eliminated the two-year wait. The SOS refused to allow felons who had served their terms to register. This decision found that the SOS had to allow the voter registrations.
What is the deadline to register for felons who have served their time? Am I mistaken in my impression that the Nebraska Supreme Court intentionally sat on this for a long time, rather than making a decision in a timely manner?
GOP requests have been relatively backloaded (e.g. they requested 3,000 more ballots than Democrats yesterday), so I wouldn't be surprised if their returns ramp up from next week onward. That said, they have a steep path toward achieving return rate parity. The first stretch of counting has gone as well as possible.
Yesterday was the second day Republicans led in requests. Last Tuesday was a R+220 day. I wouldn't be shocked if most or all of the advantage from yesterday was from the Oaks, PA rally/dance party.
Republicans had their best net requests day ever: R+2997. The overall request advantage is now D+525,358. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & Suburbs) has hit 100k returned ballots while Philadelphia has hit 85k. Both counties are at or near 50% of returned Dem requests but many counties are lagging behind. The firewall growth will eventually slow down but probably not for another week.
"If you're wondering why the return rate edge continues to creep up (for now) + big firewall spikes, the GOP is now trailing behind by up to 10% in large counties with the most R ballots like Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, etc. In the rurals, 5-7% behind is more common."
Absolutely. To have the request advantage is one thing...to have the current firewall be almost half that number is another. There is an enthusiasm gap out there.
Another factor as to why I don't believe the firewall increase will slow down soon is that some medium sized counties are way, way behind. Erie isn't at 1,000 returned ballots out of 35k requests. Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) isn't at 100 ballots out of 40k requests. Both of those counties have a roughly D+11k request advantage each. York isn't at 20% returns yet.
GEORGIA’s Secretary of State has an excellent website detailing their Early Vote. In addition to exact numbers for VBM (Absentee) and In-Person Early Vote, you can look at gender data, age groups, ethnicity, sorting by county as well as for the state as a whole.
Update, 5:30: Just so far today, almost 260,000 more Georgians have voted in person. An hour and a half to go before polls close, by which time we may be very close to 300,000.
This is my first day of jury duty for something like 8 years. Something new for me was a really interesting and well-done presentation on implicit bias and how to avoid letting it enter into our decisions as jurors, which was shown to us after a presentation on jury service that was also updated (the presentation I had seen every other time among other things showed a woman accused of witchcraft surviving long enough under water to be rescued as an innocent person under those laws,
as an example of how trial by jury is fairer). On the other hand, the first elevator I took refused to go higher after stopping on the 6th floor, and both elevators I took rattled and reminded me of the subway. I won't be giving daily reports and obviously can't say anything about any voir dires or cases I might get involved with, but I thought a quick remark about jury service in Manhattan might be of passing interest to some of you.
Unfortunately the Kean surname still sells in the Garden State. We should be prepared for him to run for Governor next year. Following Daddy Kean's example.
As of 12:20pm today, at least 7,030,656 people have voted. In-Person Early Votes: 1,479,266 • Mail Ballots Returned: 5,551,390. Early Votes have been cast in 35 states. These 14 states have at least 100,000 votes:
Thoughts on a couple Kamala media appearances (one of those not being confirmed) for next week:
My guess is the Joe Rogan interview doesn't end up happening. While Rogan's own political views are a little more idiosyncratic than they are often portrayed as, that is far less true of his audience. I think he likely sees major risk to taking that interview and being even slightly cordial and how he could lose some of his regular audience as a result.
The CNN Townhall next week, I think there's a less than 5% chance of this happening, but I wouldn't be shocked if Trump makes a last second decision that he wants to join the townhall. Since its already scheduled, I'm guessing CNN would be willing to oblige, but if some of the non-cable networks would decide that its too late to dump their previously scheduled programming.
I try not to follow the major parasocial internet personalities, but wouldn't the appearance of a sitting VP and possible future president be a large bump to Rogan's projected image of being smart and important? I would expect that to outweigh any risks of his audience not liking him doing it in the first place. If the audience wasn't receptive enough to Harris then she wouldn't see any benefit from trying to do so in the first place, after all.
Unless he decides to completely change the direction of his show the idea of being smart and important has limited utility to him. Even if the interview happens, it'll be a one-off or two-off if he interviews Trump as well and the vast majority of his interview subjects will continue to be MMA fighters and comedians.
If 20% of Rogan's audience is receptive to Harris, 60% hates her and 20% doesn't care either way, his audience is big enough that it makes sense for her to do his show. But its risky for him to do it.
If anything it's going to be Kamala nixing the Rogan interview given the non-standard format and topics of his show. Personally I don't think it's worth the risk for her do it but the campaign seems to be dead-set on reaching out to Republicans and more traditionally right-leaning groups.
It's not necessarily right leaning audiences, it's young men. She is trying to reach young men. Trump has been talking directly to these young men for a long time, and Harris must be seeing weakness with Gen Z men to justify the strategy change. I am not opposed to her going on Rogan, as it's an audience Harris has never spoken to before.
Rogan's audience is large (something like 14 million) and I think a fair percentage of them are, to be kind, dummies without strong political beliefs. The guy who cuts my hair is a Joe Rogan fan and I don't think he's a Republican, just, well, a dummy. And some dummies vote. If she were able to get .005% of his audience to vote for her, that could be very helpful.
She should do the Rogan interview if offered, even if it were to be hostile, which i doubt, she can more than handle herself and i do think it helps that voters see her going on unfriendly platforms.
Putting aside Joe Rogan's views and audience, he's actually good at interviewing and doesn't do the Fox News dance when it comes to acting like a dick in interrupting Kamala Harris and being combative. From Rogan's interviewing style, he's got more in common with Howard Stern in that he's generally interested in learning about those whom he interviews (especially celebrities). I've seen some interviews he's done, and I admit I actually get entertained watching them, even if I'm not a Rogan guy.
That said, if Rogan doesn't interview Harris I don't think at this point she really needs to interview with him. The Fox News interview though is supposed to enable Harris to get ownership over the border issue and throw it against the GOP.
I saw it. Harris was remarkably confident and comfortable interviewing even amid the interview itself being contentious at times. When she was talking about her prosecuting experience, it was a good idea for her to give that information out.
I don't know if for sure it's moved the needle as of yet for Democrats on the border issue. However, it's an opportunity for the Democratic Party to get a better shot at taking charge on the issue than it did before.
I disagree with you that Rogan is good at interviewing because his interviews often veer into topics that he and/or his guest don't have the greatest factual grasp of and so it can often lead to him saying wildly untrue things and/or his guest saying wildly untrue things with minimal fact checking. I will agree that his interviews aren't combative and he does try to learn about his guest and their views and perspectives.
It may just be the interviews I am watching but I don't see the interviews Rogan does with the guests I care nothing about and don't want to even listen to (including the conspiracy theorist-type of guests). It's generally the celebrities.
In Rogan's standards he's able to extract information from guests. Good interviewing from my standpoint means that someone like Rogan is able to get the truth out, even if he does show he doesn't have much understanding of certain things and goes off in tangents.
Howard Stern on the other hand I will say is a far better interviewer and more professional, even more inquisitive.
Looks like the same bs both sides have been running. But you add look out third parties your adds may be taken down. First third party candidates don’t have money for adds, and the adds we run are about our parties beliefs.
"Third party ads" in this context means ads run by Super PACs, not the candidates themselves. Candidates of all parties are allowed to run political ads without fear of them being taken down.
This is the reason to push for campaign funding limits, shorter campaign seasons, ranked voting and other solutions. Many of these proposals have been put into legislation, but are shot down by the corporate and foreign entities with to much power.
Unfortunately, the post with that poll has been deleted. I don’t know whether it was premature or a phony. But that site has been posting polls for a while.
Loving these numbers. This is Bernie Porn's pollster (humorous name).
Trump's attacks on auto workers this week will cost him dearly and he'll be paying for it for the rest of his natural life. When he loses, hope he goes to prison and the jumpsuit matches his skin color. Michigan has the largest number of auto workers (I think)!!
His poll is the Michigan version of the Seltzer poll in Iowa and the Marquette poll in Wisconsin. They had Gretchen Whitmer up by 11 in 2022 when everyone else had her up by around 4 and he was right.
Indeed. After almost a whole decade of pandering and sucking up to the UAW and its members, Trump finally showed his true colors and revealed what he really thinks about workers. If this doesn't wake up moderates, undecideds, and Independents; I don't know what will. 💙🇺🇲
Marquette, National (10.01-10.10.2024):
2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 50%
Last poll (8/1) - Harris +4 (52/48)
——
FULL FIELD (with other)
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟪 Other: 4%
——
Full Field with RFK Jr*
🟦 Harris: 44%
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 9%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Green: 1%
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1846470753853514005
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/MLSPSC22ToplinesLV_NationalIssues.html
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist (10.08-10.10.2024):
LV:
🟦 Harris: 52% [+2]
🟥 Trump: 47% [-1]
RV:
🟦 Harris 51%
🟥 Trump 48%
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1846463148405993962
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-u-s-presidential-contest-october-16-2024/
FDU poll, National (10.08-10.14.2024):
🟦Harris 50%
🟥Trump 47%
https://www.fdu.edu/news/114088/
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1846518935266447776?t=-Iv2EqtXioPjebeq0VOXtA&s=19
NE Supreme Court just ordered the SOS to allow felons to vote overturning the illegal actions of the SOS. https://supremecourt.nebraska.gov/courts/supreme-court/opinions
I assume you mean people who've already done their time, not currently imprisoned people.
That is correct. NE law already allowed felons who had served their time to vote two years after completion of a sentence. A new law eliminated the two-year wait. The SOS refused to allow felons who had served their terms to register. This decision found that the SOS had to allow the voter registrations.
What is the deadline to register for felons who have served their time? Am I mistaken in my impression that the Nebraska Supreme Court intentionally sat on this for a long time, rather than making a decision in a timely manner?
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY VOTE UPDATE
📥 631,725 votes cast
– 🔵 DEM: 416,239 - 40.6% returned
– 🔴 GOP: 158,486 - 31.8% returned
– 🟡 IND: 57,000 - 27.6% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 65.9% / 🔴 25.1% / 🟡 9%
🔷 DEM firewall: +257,753
📈 Return Edge: D+8.8
https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq/status/1846547227788853730#m
(McDonald’s Election Project update for Pennsylvania is lagging, still at 415k.)
We seem to be adding to the firewall by about 30k each day.
I’d expect that to slow a bit but it’s an excellent start
GOP requests have been relatively backloaded (e.g. they requested 3,000 more ballots than Democrats yesterday), so I wouldn't be surprised if their returns ramp up from next week onward. That said, they have a steep path toward achieving return rate parity. The first stretch of counting has gone as well as possible.
Yesterday was the second day Republicans led in requests. Last Tuesday was a R+220 day. I wouldn't be shocked if most or all of the advantage from yesterday was from the Oaks, PA rally/dance party.
Republicans had their best net requests day ever: R+2997. The overall request advantage is now D+525,358. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & Suburbs) has hit 100k returned ballots while Philadelphia has hit 85k. Both counties are at or near 50% of returned Dem requests but many counties are lagging behind. The firewall growth will eventually slow down but probably not for another week.
VoteHub has been updated. https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker
(Not affiliated with them but they're the best interactive resource)
Many thanks! I was not aware of this website.
"If you're wondering why the return rate edge continues to creep up (for now) + big firewall spikes, the GOP is now trailing behind by up to 10% in large counties with the most R ballots like Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, etc. In the rurals, 5-7% behind is more common."
– Joshua Smithley
Absolutely. To have the request advantage is one thing...to have the current firewall be almost half that number is another. There is an enthusiasm gap out there.
Another factor as to why I don't believe the firewall increase will slow down soon is that some medium sized counties are way, way behind. Erie isn't at 1,000 returned ballots out of 35k requests. Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) isn't at 100 ballots out of 40k requests. Both of those counties have a roughly D+11k request advantage each. York isn't at 20% returns yet.
If we can keep Lancaster and York Counties relatively close, it's a good sign for us in November.
Won't the margins slow and narrow for the mail ballots but then expand again as actual early vote sites open up??
Colin Allred demolished Ted Cruz in their debate last night! Clips are circulating on the Internet, – here is the full "Texas Senate Debate".
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=texas+senate+debate&t=newext&atb=v238-1&iax=videos&ia=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DZMHN4puJPsQ
(On this link you can play the video directly in DuckDuckGo. The YouTube video that I first linked to last night was taken down.)
GEORGIA’s Secretary of State has an excellent website detailing their Early Vote. In addition to exact numbers for VBM (Absentee) and In-Person Early Vote, you can look at gender data, age groups, ethnicity, sorting by county as well as for the state as a whole.
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
PS. If you click "Early Voting In Oerson)", they’re even showing today’s live count, obviously with some lag. Impressive!
Update: As of 3:30pm, an additional 209,000 Georgians have voted Early In-Person.
Update, 5:30: Just so far today, almost 260,000 more Georgians have voted in person. An hour and a half to go before polls close, by which time we may be very close to 300,000.
6.30 – Almost 270,000 people have voted early in person today.
This is my first day of jury duty for something like 8 years. Something new for me was a really interesting and well-done presentation on implicit bias and how to avoid letting it enter into our decisions as jurors, which was shown to us after a presentation on jury service that was also updated (the presentation I had seen every other time among other things showed a woman accused of witchcraft surviving long enough under water to be rescued as an innocent person under those laws,
as an example of how trial by jury is fairer). On the other hand, the first elevator I took refused to go higher after stopping on the 6th floor, and both elevators I took rattled and reminded me of the subway. I won't be giving daily reports and obviously can't say anything about any voir dires or cases I might get involved with, but I thought a quick remark about jury service in Manhattan might be of passing interest to some of you.
Nothing doing at jury duty, so we were all excused a few minutes before 4 o'clock. One and done.
I find that almost all cases get settled by a deal being cut(just once I'd like to actually serve on a jury)
I did serve on a jury 8+ years ago. They settled on the 2nd afternoon of the trial.
Last time I made into the jury box the prosecution excused me before could sit down, lol.
NJ 7. Monmouth poll has the race tied to Kean +2.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NJ_101624/
Unfortunately the Kean surname still sells in the Garden State. We should be prepared for him to run for Governor next year. Following Daddy Kean's example.
Probably not running for Governor as four people have already declared on the R side.
No, there’s no indication that he has any interest
He would be stupid to give up a Congressional seat that was low-key drawn for him for a bluer constituency.
YouGov/Economist (10.12-10.15.2024):
🟦 Harris: 49% [=]
🟥 Trump: 45% [=]
🟪 Other: 3%
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_ycklxBQ.pdf#page=9
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1846539311149175189
Incoming Q polls today NC President/ Governor and Georgia President
Really hoping its better than their last batch...
In their previous polling, they had Trump up 1 in NC and 3 in Georgia
Q poll:
NC H-50, T-47
GA T-52, H-46
Despite the good result in NC, GA is so weird that I'm all "throw it on the pile" like I was with Q's last result. They are so... unnervingly bizarre.
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1846613285472555010
NJ-07: Monmouth has Kean slightly up, but tied when 3rd party vote included: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_101624/
EARLY VOTE UPDATE
As of 12:20pm today, at least 7,030,656 people have voted. In-Person Early Votes: 1,479,266 • Mail Ballots Returned: 5,551,390. Early Votes have been cast in 35 states. These 14 states have at least 100,000 votes:
VA 815,119•
MI 781,400•
FL 709,359•*
PA 629,785•
CA 594,364•
IL 432,934•
NJ 353,880*
OH 351,935
GA 328,800•
MD 279,591•*
WI 267,524•
MA 225,619
MN 220,006< (last updated 03.10)
IN 188,280
Early Voting in other states:
NE 94,133•*
TX 86,287•
SD 75,501*< (last updated 04.10)
ME 75,089*
AZ 72,820
VT 70,548< (last updated 14.10)
CO 70,419*
ID 64,095•*
NC 63,297•*
NM 50,109
KY 26,094
ND 25,753
CT 18,322< (last updated 14.10)
DE 17,944*
WY 10,436
SC 10,021
NV 9,156
WV 7,511
MT 2,280
IA 1,760< (last updated 12.10)
RI 485
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
*) States that report party registration: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, IA, ID, KY, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NC, OR, PA, RI, SD, WV.
•) States with updates today.
<) States where updates are significantly lagging.
Thoughts on a couple Kamala media appearances (one of those not being confirmed) for next week:
My guess is the Joe Rogan interview doesn't end up happening. While Rogan's own political views are a little more idiosyncratic than they are often portrayed as, that is far less true of his audience. I think he likely sees major risk to taking that interview and being even slightly cordial and how he could lose some of his regular audience as a result.
The CNN Townhall next week, I think there's a less than 5% chance of this happening, but I wouldn't be shocked if Trump makes a last second decision that he wants to join the townhall. Since its already scheduled, I'm guessing CNN would be willing to oblige, but if some of the non-cable networks would decide that its too late to dump their previously scheduled programming.
Q. Why did the chicken cross the road?
A. Because he was afraid to debate Kamala Harris again.
.
Q. Why did the other chicken decline to interview Kamala Harris?
A. Because he was afraid to lose his audience.
I try not to follow the major parasocial internet personalities, but wouldn't the appearance of a sitting VP and possible future president be a large bump to Rogan's projected image of being smart and important? I would expect that to outweigh any risks of his audience not liking him doing it in the first place. If the audience wasn't receptive enough to Harris then she wouldn't see any benefit from trying to do so in the first place, after all.
Unless he decides to completely change the direction of his show the idea of being smart and important has limited utility to him. Even if the interview happens, it'll be a one-off or two-off if he interviews Trump as well and the vast majority of his interview subjects will continue to be MMA fighters and comedians.
If 20% of Rogan's audience is receptive to Harris, 60% hates her and 20% doesn't care either way, his audience is big enough that it makes sense for her to do his show. But its risky for him to do it.
If anything it's going to be Kamala nixing the Rogan interview given the non-standard format and topics of his show. Personally I don't think it's worth the risk for her do it but the campaign seems to be dead-set on reaching out to Republicans and more traditionally right-leaning groups.
It's not necessarily right leaning audiences, it's young men. She is trying to reach young men. Trump has been talking directly to these young men for a long time, and Harris must be seeing weakness with Gen Z men to justify the strategy change. I am not opposed to her going on Rogan, as it's an audience Harris has never spoken to before.
Rogan's audience is large (something like 14 million) and I think a fair percentage of them are, to be kind, dummies without strong political beliefs. The guy who cuts my hair is a Joe Rogan fan and I don't think he's a Republican, just, well, a dummy. And some dummies vote. If she were able to get .005% of his audience to vote for her, that could be very helpful.
This basically describes my acquaintances who love Rogan and his schtick
She should do the Rogan interview if offered, even if it were to be hostile, which i doubt, she can more than handle herself and i do think it helps that voters see her going on unfriendly platforms.
Putting aside Joe Rogan's views and audience, he's actually good at interviewing and doesn't do the Fox News dance when it comes to acting like a dick in interrupting Kamala Harris and being combative. From Rogan's interviewing style, he's got more in common with Howard Stern in that he's generally interested in learning about those whom he interviews (especially celebrities). I've seen some interviews he's done, and I admit I actually get entertained watching them, even if I'm not a Rogan guy.
That said, if Rogan doesn't interview Harris I don't think at this point she really needs to interview with him. The Fox News interview though is supposed to enable Harris to get ownership over the border issue and throw it against the GOP.
Did you watch it, and do you think it did?
I saw it. Harris was remarkably confident and comfortable interviewing even amid the interview itself being contentious at times. When she was talking about her prosecuting experience, it was a good idea for her to give that information out.
I don't know if for sure it's moved the needle as of yet for Democrats on the border issue. However, it's an opportunity for the Democratic Party to get a better shot at taking charge on the issue than it did before.
I disagree with you that Rogan is good at interviewing because his interviews often veer into topics that he and/or his guest don't have the greatest factual grasp of and so it can often lead to him saying wildly untrue things and/or his guest saying wildly untrue things with minimal fact checking. I will agree that his interviews aren't combative and he does try to learn about his guest and their views and perspectives.
It may just be the interviews I am watching but I don't see the interviews Rogan does with the guests I care nothing about and don't want to even listen to (including the conspiracy theorist-type of guests). It's generally the celebrities.
In Rogan's standards he's able to extract information from guests. Good interviewing from my standpoint means that someone like Rogan is able to get the truth out, even if he does show he doesn't have much understanding of certain things and goes off in tangents.
Howard Stern on the other hand I will say is a far better interviewer and more professional, even more inquisitive.
Looks like the same bs both sides have been running. But you add look out third parties your adds may be taken down. First third party candidates don’t have money for adds, and the adds we run are about our parties beliefs.
"Third party ads" in this context means ads run by Super PACs, not the candidates themselves. Candidates of all parties are allowed to run political ads without fear of them being taken down.
As opposed to ads for third parties – such as Jill Stein’s Green Party. Ambiguous and confusing term, imho.
Got you, I wish all attack adds to be taken down.
No you don't! It's essential to truthfully attack candidates like Trump!
And Harris?
What are you calling for?
This is the reason to push for campaign funding limits, shorter campaign seasons, ranked voting and other solutions. Many of these proposals have been put into legislation, but are shot down by the corporate and foreign entities with to much power.
Unfortunately, the post with that poll has been deleted. I don’t know whether it was premature or a phony. But that site has been posting polls for a while.
Loving these numbers. This is Bernie Porn's pollster (humorous name).
Trump's attacks on auto workers this week will cost him dearly and he'll be paying for it for the rest of his natural life. When he loses, hope he goes to prison and the jumpsuit matches his skin color. Michigan has the largest number of auto workers (I think)!!
💙🇺🇲🙏🎯
His poll is the Michigan version of the Seltzer poll in Iowa and the Marquette poll in Wisconsin. They had Gretchen Whitmer up by 11 in 2022 when everyone else had her up by around 4 and he was right.
Indeed. After almost a whole decade of pandering and sucking up to the UAW and its members, Trump finally showed his true colors and revealed what he really thinks about workers. If this doesn't wake up moderates, undecideds, and Independents; I don't know what will. 💙🇺🇲
Nothing, for those for whom bigotry is paramount.
Thanks for that context. I wasn't aware of its gold standard relevance.
Btw, when was this poll in the field, this week? 🙂
Seems on the fringe of current polling data. But I do feel better about Michigan than other swing states.
I can't find a link to this one?
It’s been deleted. I’ve edited my original post.
Yeah, thanks. I was suspicious that I couldn't find more than a Twitter link. Could be a pre-embargo leak, could be fake, as you say.