Democrats are eyeing a closer-than-expected governor’s race in deep-red Indiana as a pickup opportunity: The Democratic Governors Association is investing $600,000 into the campaign of former Republican schools chief JENNIFER McCORMICK, who is running against Sen. MIKE BRAUN (R-Ind.), our Adam Wren reports. It comes after their polling showed a “dead heat” race, with McCormick trailing Braun, 44 percent to 41 percent, with Libertarian DONALD RAINWATER pulling 8 percent.
Early Vote Update, as of 1pm: Total Early Votes: 1,429,586 • In-Person Early Votes: 346,609 • Mail Ballots Returned: 1,080,187.
Longshoremen’s strike ended thanks to pressure and great bridge-building by the Biden Administration! Next on Biden’s pre-election To-Do List: avoiding a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.
I would like to make a couple of observations about Pennsylvania, where some of the data is rather striking. Democrats have requested 930,000 mail ballots compared to 408,000 for Republicans, and 171,000 for Independents. Most striking is that 7% of Democrats have already returned their mail ballots, while only 4.2% of Republicans have done so (4.1% for independents).
At least in Pennsylvania, Democrats appear to be heeding the advice to "vote as early as possible". This means Democrats account for 72.8% of votes so far, Republicans 19.4% and Indys 7.8%. In other words, early indications are that we appear to be banking an advantage.
I wouldn't read into the return rates at this stage, as some counties delivered ballots later than others and are processing intake at different rates. That's presumably why Philly and Montgomery are reporting returns above 20% while Bucks, Chester, and Delaware are close to zero. The largest Republican-leaning counties (Cumberland, Lancaster, Westmoreland, and York) have also yet to begin properly reporting, as have most rurals.
That said, the overall proportion of GOP-to-Dem ballot requests isn't that different from 2020 (~41% in 2020 vs ~44%) in 2024, which is encouraging. Philly requests are down quite a bit, but Allegheny and the Philly collar counties are picking up the slack.
I am a little worried about Philly dipping below 80% for Kamala and wouldn't be surprised if the western blue collar counties (Beaver, Washington, Westmoreland, etc.) trend right. But I'd also expect Kamala to build on Biden's margins Allegheny and the Philly suburbs and will be very curious to see how she performs in Cumberland and Lancaster. Those'll be my two must-watch counties on election night--strong performances there could go a long toward neutralizing slippage elsewhere.
At least the end of the port strike removes one thing that would have made it worse. And it means no GOP ads depicting Biden, Harris, and the unions as the Grinches possibly spoiling Christmas due to toys not getting to stores.
O’Connor, the Republican ward leader, said he believes the GOP will perform better than expected in Philadelphia this year, in part because he sees the parties realigning based on class.
“When I first started in politics in 1978, the managerial class was Republican — no one votes the way their bosses vote,” he said. “Now, most people in the managerial class vote Democratic and no one is voting the way their boss is. So it’s been a flip. Most of the bosses are Democrats and the Democratic Party has become the party of the upper middle class.”
That's actually usually the way things work, although less by class than by education. At least that's the trend and I fully expect it to continue and accelerate this cycle.
"Management" covers a huge swathe of people. Most of them will be no better than upper middle class. Republican policies are bad for all of that group.
That said, a lot of people do vote against their economic self-interest. Just look at how Appalachia votes.
But also, the ward leader's assumptions aren't sound. Especially in a major city, like Philly. The working classes are going to have heavy ideological divides along various lines: ethnicity, age, gender, religion, where they live... A major city is going to have most of that demographic data pointing towards those voters being very heavily left leaning. We're not going to lose some of them because their boss votes the same as them. We might lose some of them for other reasons, but not because of that.
We're picking up more of the managerial class because we're picking up more of the college educated demographics, not because they want to be opposed to voting behavior of the 9-5 workers...
He certainly isn't wrong although the pattern hasn't tracked in big cities like Philadelphia as aggressively as it has in less populous jurisdictions....at least not yet.
An edit for the advert listings: In NE-02 Tony Vargas (D) is the challenger, not the incumbent. If he defeats the GOP incumbent Don Bacon, we can stop with the food-related puns. Yes, we do want Tony to fry Don's bacon...
Meanwhile I have to keep those V names straight. In New Mexico we have Gabe Vasquez (D-NM-02). I can't think of any prominent candidates named Valdez though there was a famous L.A. newscaster named Tony Valdez. Oh, yeah, there is Michelle Vallejo in Texas...
Off topic(apologies); but I received my VBM ballot today(Florida, Volusia county); giving me a MONTH to make sure it gets counted properly; frankly, I might end up voting for ZERO winners; but at least I will exercise my franchise rights
Jonathan, my prediction is that Deb Mucarsel-Powell wins. Heck, if I’m wrong, I’ll buy you a pint if you’re ever in my neck of the woods (Northern Maine). Come to think of it, if I’m right, I’ll buy you a celebratory pint!
Just PM me through substack. I know a good pub with a great view. We have an extra pair of snowshoes you can borrow. We have a woodstove in case you prefer to sit inside.
Lately there's been a flood of partisan polls being released, notably in PA. Almost all are Republican sponsored or conservative groups and they give Trump very generous results that border on outliers. This almost feels like 2022 deja vu esp in PA. Also this guy explains how ridiculously bad the Atlas polls are. The crosstabs are wonk with the most egregious findings including Trump winning the female vote in many swing states and somehow winning 47% of the black vote in PA. Yea so just a reminder, don't overreact to polls and treat them with a heavy grain of salt.
Too bad many pundits and so called experts like Nate Silver and RCP fall for these "data points" and use them to promote their sophistry. Not sure what can be done to counter this gaslighting.
Not too much, I think, other than proving them wrong. 2022 helped - the right-wing poll brigade failed miserably in so many races - and we'd better make 2024 the same story.
As for Nate Silver, he isn’t "falling" for these extreme-R-leaning polls; he is making a conscious choice to include them as the results fit his increasingly Republican-tinged narrative. But then again, Nate is now in business with Peter Thiel.
Unfortunately many of these comments don't seem worse than what he's already said. Calling Tester Jabba the Hutt isn't either as Trump has called him pregnant.
That’s exactly it. I don’t think this story has any impact on its own, but if this becomes a drip, drip, drip of more damaging recordings emerging every few days or once a week or two in the final stretch, that’s when it can truly end a politicians career (see Hillary’s emails).
Asheville, NC provided nearly a 30,000 vote margin for Democrats in 2020. Anyone else concerned that many of these people will be unable to cast votes or will be unhappy to support the Federal Govt in Nov? Many may also just leave the area.
Valid concern depending on their satisfaction or lack thereof with the federal response. Obama benefited from the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy but the destruction in Asheville seems considerably worse and could leave voters understandably cranky as they head to the polls, which wouldn't benefit the incumbent party.
It's an imponderable at the moment. But I think any problems with disaster relief are probably going to be blamed more on the governor. I could be wrong.
And doesn’t seem we are having issues right with disaster relief efforts. Most politicians have learned the lessons from the past. They warn people earlier, scare them harder into evacuating and help starts pouring in immediately.
“If you plan to stay, write your name in permanent marker on your arm” is such fantastic marketing/messaging. We care, we worry about you but if you really write your info in permanent marker on your arm, then you’re an idiot and deserve what happens to you.
I understand economic situations can make it seem impossible for some people to leave. Good samaritans exist, just ask for help!
During the last 27 days before Election Day, President Obama will be campaigning for Kamala Harris in battleground states. Paleo referred to this in a link. Any thoughts here on what impact Obama may have? Can he raise turnout rates in key areas and amongst key demographics?
I think he can help greatly with his absolute annihilation of Trump, with humour(I imagine he'll be deployed strategically in the Big 7; +maybe Texas and Florida??)
Nevada: Tarrance (Republican pollster)
Harris 47-44
Rosen 48-41
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/majority-of-nevadans-support-voter-id-harris-gaining-over-trump
Democrats are eyeing a closer-than-expected governor’s race in deep-red Indiana as a pickup opportunity: The Democratic Governors Association is investing $600,000 into the campaign of former Republican schools chief JENNIFER McCORMICK, who is running against Sen. MIKE BRAUN (R-Ind.), our Adam Wren reports. It comes after their polling showed a “dead heat” race, with McCormick trailing Braun, 44 percent to 41 percent, with Libertarian DONALD RAINWATER pulling 8 percent.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/10/04/obama-hits-the-campaign-trail-00182496
Ah, the good McCormick.
Cook: Five new House race rating changes:
#IA01: Lean R to Toss Up
#IA03: Lean R to Toss Up
#IL17: Lean D to Likely D
#IN01: Lean D to Likely D
#MT01: Likely R to Lean R
I'd be interested to know what they're seeing in MT-01 that leads to the shift toward us.
There was the Noble Predictive Insights poll back in mid September of MT01 that showed Zinke +4 over Tranel. https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/montana-1-poll-tranel-and-tester-on-the-edge
There is also a libertarian on the ballot that Democrats hope can act as a spoiler.
Tranel also put out a good ad about Zinke’s AirBNB rental.
I don't know, but that's good news for Tester(and John McCain)
All five races moving in our favor!
Early Vote Update, as of 1pm: Total Early Votes: 1,429,586 • In-Person Early Votes: 346,609 • Mail Ballots Returned: 1,080,187.
Longshoremen’s strike ended thanks to pressure and great bridge-building by the Biden Administration! Next on Biden’s pre-election To-Do List: avoiding a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.
I would like to make a couple of observations about Pennsylvania, where some of the data is rather striking. Democrats have requested 930,000 mail ballots compared to 408,000 for Republicans, and 171,000 for Independents. Most striking is that 7% of Democrats have already returned their mail ballots, while only 4.2% of Republicans have done so (4.1% for independents).
At least in Pennsylvania, Democrats appear to be heeding the advice to "vote as early as possible". This means Democrats account for 72.8% of votes so far, Republicans 19.4% and Indys 7.8%. In other words, early indications are that we appear to be banking an advantage.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
I wouldn't read into the return rates at this stage, as some counties delivered ballots later than others and are processing intake at different rates. That's presumably why Philly and Montgomery are reporting returns above 20% while Bucks, Chester, and Delaware are close to zero. The largest Republican-leaning counties (Cumberland, Lancaster, Westmoreland, and York) have also yet to begin properly reporting, as have most rurals.
That said, the overall proportion of GOP-to-Dem ballot requests isn't that different from 2020 (~41% in 2020 vs ~44%) in 2024, which is encouraging. Philly requests are down quite a bit, but Allegheny and the Philly collar counties are picking up the slack.
I am a little worried about Philly dipping below 80% for Kamala and wouldn't be surprised if the western blue collar counties (Beaver, Washington, Westmoreland, etc.) trend right. But I'd also expect Kamala to build on Biden's margins Allegheny and the Philly suburbs and will be very curious to see how she performs in Cumberland and Lancaster. Those'll be my two must-watch counties on election night--strong performances there could go a long toward neutralizing slippage elsewhere.
Bucks County is also an important bellwether county.
Yes. A propos of that: https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/04/how-the-white-house-ended-the-port-strike/
Said Zients: “I need the offer today — not tomorrow. Today. I’m going to brief the president in an hour that you believe you can get this done today.”
Great jobs report this AM +254k and upward revisions for last 2 months Rate down to 4.1
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
This is a great jobs report
Is this the last major economic report before the election?
No, there’s another jobs report due just before the election. And it’s likely to be rough due to Helene.
At least the end of the port strike removes one thing that would have made it worse. And it means no GOP ads depicting Biden, Harris, and the unions as the Grinches possibly spoiling Christmas due to toys not getting to stores.
I would vote for both recalls if I lived in Oakland.
It feels like you've said that 8 times. We all know your position. Stop repeating it to no useful purpose.
It's like they're just trolling at this point. "Look at me, I'm owning the libs!"
Without getting into his possible criminality; Cuellar is one helluva politician
O’Connor, the Republican ward leader, said he believes the GOP will perform better than expected in Philadelphia this year, in part because he sees the parties realigning based on class.
“When I first started in politics in 1978, the managerial class was Republican — no one votes the way their bosses vote,” he said. “Now, most people in the managerial class vote Democratic and no one is voting the way their boss is. So it’s been a flip. Most of the bosses are Democrats and the Democratic Party has become the party of the upper middle class.”
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/inq2/philadelphia-working-class-voters-republican-20241001.html?query=in%20deep-blue%20philly,%20working%20class%20voters
Ah yes, the eternal "flip," where all things that change must be compensated by a corresponding and related change elsewhere.
That's actually usually the way things work, although less by class than by education. At least that's the trend and I fully expect it to continue and accelerate this cycle.
Only 1 problem here:
Republican POLICIES are pro-management & anti-labor and voters aren't that dumb (hopefully)!!
"Management" covers a huge swathe of people. Most of them will be no better than upper middle class. Republican policies are bad for all of that group.
That said, a lot of people do vote against their economic self-interest. Just look at how Appalachia votes.
But also, the ward leader's assumptions aren't sound. Especially in a major city, like Philly. The working classes are going to have heavy ideological divides along various lines: ethnicity, age, gender, religion, where they live... A major city is going to have most of that demographic data pointing towards those voters being very heavily left leaning. We're not going to lose some of them because their boss votes the same as them. We might lose some of them for other reasons, but not because of that.
We're picking up more of the managerial class because we're picking up more of the college educated demographics, not because they want to be opposed to voting behavior of the 9-5 workers...
Remember, the quote is messaging, not necessarily an honest assessment of the ward leader's real opinions.
He certainly isn't wrong although the pattern hasn't tracked in big cities like Philadelphia as aggressively as it has in less populous jurisdictions....at least not yet.
An edit for the advert listings: In NE-02 Tony Vargas (D) is the challenger, not the incumbent. If he defeats the GOP incumbent Don Bacon, we can stop with the food-related puns. Yes, we do want Tony to fry Don's bacon...
Meanwhile I have to keep those V names straight. In New Mexico we have Gabe Vasquez (D-NM-02). I can't think of any prominent candidates named Valdez though there was a famous L.A. newscaster named Tony Valdez. Oh, yeah, there is Michelle Vallejo in Texas...
Thank you for the catch!
Off topic(apologies); but I received my VBM ballot today(Florida, Volusia county); giving me a MONTH to make sure it gets counted properly; frankly, I might end up voting for ZERO winners; but at least I will exercise my franchise rights
Jonathan, my prediction is that Deb Mucarsel-Powell wins. Heck, if I’m wrong, I’ll buy you a pint if you’re ever in my neck of the woods (Northern Maine). Come to think of it, if I’m right, I’ll buy you a celebratory pint!
If she wins; I'll visit Maine👍
Just PM me through substack. I know a good pub with a great view. We have an extra pair of snowshoes you can borrow. We have a woodstove in case you prefer to sit inside.
👍
I agree...DM-P will win! Jonathan...you might want to book your flight to Maine early before ticket prices go up closer to the Holidays!
I believe she wins, too.
Voting is never off topic! Unless it’s an about Pres Dem Primary of course.
Thank you
Lately there's been a flood of partisan polls being released, notably in PA. Almost all are Republican sponsored or conservative groups and they give Trump very generous results that border on outliers. This almost feels like 2022 deja vu esp in PA. Also this guy explains how ridiculously bad the Atlas polls are. The crosstabs are wonk with the most egregious findings including Trump winning the female vote in many swing states and somehow winning 47% of the black vote in PA. Yea so just a reminder, don't overreact to polls and treat them with a heavy grain of salt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz-P4WWnqeQ
This is common place now; I would ignore as much as you can
I omit GOP troll polls from the crude averages I post in these threads from time to time.
Too bad many pundits and so called experts like Nate Silver and RCP fall for these "data points" and use them to promote their sophistry. Not sure what can be done to counter this gaslighting.
Not too much, I think, other than proving them wrong. 2022 helped - the right-wing poll brigade failed miserably in so many races - and we'd better make 2024 the same story.
I don't think anything has to be done. If anything, having poll averages underestimate them may be pushing Dems to work harder.
We should recall that RCP’s Senate projection for the 2022 Midterm Elections was 53–54 Republican seats.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html
As for Nate Silver, he isn’t "falling" for these extreme-R-leaning polls; he is making a conscious choice to include them as the results fit his increasingly Republican-tinged narrative. But then again, Nate is now in business with Peter Thiel.
If you just relied on Trafalgar, Walker, Oz, Masters and Laxalt would be in the senate today.
Also Lake and even Dixon may be governors. God that would be nightmarish.
I enjoy your averaging the data and your omissions as well; thank you
Sounds like some new tapes have leaked of Sheehy making even more offensive comments about Native Americans, and also Tester.
What are the odds this hurts him?
He also appears to have made a lot of anti government comments, but I imagine in a state like Montana that would actually help him.
https://dailymontanan.com/2024/10/04/more-recordings-show-sheehy-disparaging-natives-federal-government-tester/
Unfortunately many of these comments don't seem worse than what he's already said. Calling Tester Jabba the Hutt isn't either as Trump has called him pregnant.
Speaking of "pregnant", looks like Donald Trump is being forced to carry Mark Robinson to term!
If it changes SOME soft Sheehy voters minds and moves remaining undecideds towards Tester, could be a game-changer!! 🙏🇺🇲
It's got that drip, drip, drip thing going; which always leads to, 'what's next'??
That’s exactly it. I don’t think this story has any impact on its own, but if this becomes a drip, drip, drip of more damaging recordings emerging every few days or once a week or two in the final stretch, that’s when it can truly end a politicians career (see Hillary’s emails).
Asheville, NC provided nearly a 30,000 vote margin for Democrats in 2020. Anyone else concerned that many of these people will be unable to cast votes or will be unhappy to support the Federal Govt in Nov? Many may also just leave the area.
I actually think they will be able to cast their ballots if they so choose; whether they want to is a whole different thing
Why would they be particularly unhappy with the government?
Valid concern depending on their satisfaction or lack thereof with the federal response. Obama benefited from the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy but the destruction in Asheville seems considerably worse and could leave voters understandably cranky as they head to the polls, which wouldn't benefit the incumbent party.
It's an imponderable at the moment. But I think any problems with disaster relief are probably going to be blamed more on the governor. I could be wrong.
And doesn’t seem we are having issues right with disaster relief efforts. Most politicians have learned the lessons from the past. They warn people earlier, scare them harder into evacuating and help starts pouring in immediately.
“If you plan to stay, write your name in permanent marker on your arm” is such fantastic marketing/messaging. We care, we worry about you but if you really write your info in permanent marker on your arm, then you’re an idiot and deserve what happens to you.
I understand economic situations can make it seem impossible for some people to leave. Good samaritans exist, just ask for help!
If it helps drive really heavy Native American turnout, that might make a difference.
What is the "it" here?
Talking about sheehy I believe; remarks posted above👆👆👆
Sorry if the reply didn't nest properly.
If so, lots of Republicans from rural western North Carolina will also unfortunately have problems.
During the last 27 days before Election Day, President Obama will be campaigning for Kamala Harris in battleground states. Paleo referred to this in a link. Any thoughts here on what impact Obama may have? Can he raise turnout rates in key areas and amongst key demographics?
https://www.axios.com/2024/10/04/obama-campaign-harris-election-battleground-states
I think he can help greatly with his absolute annihilation of Trump, with humour(I imagine he'll be deployed strategically in the Big 7; +maybe Texas and Florida??)