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MPC's avatar

Kim Reynolds deciding to not run for a third term was the best news I've heard on Friday. She almost lost her seat during the 2018 blue wave. I wonder what made her leave, did her husband's cancer come back?

Either way, good riddance. Maybe Iowans can flip that governor's seat and Ernst's seat but it's going to take the right candidate and political headwinds for that to happen.

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ArcticStones's avatar

The key question is: Does Reynolds dropping out of contention increase or decrease Democrats’ chance of acquiring the next lease on Iowa’s governor’s mansion?

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

I know federal and state races don't always correlate, but hard to see a state that went for Trump by 13% electing a D statewide absent a major scandal-plagued candidate.

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Paleo's avatar

Kelly won in Kansas in 2018 after the state went Republican by 20. So it can happen.

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MPC's avatar

Um, when he's not on the ballot (like in 2018) or termed out, Republicans don't turn out as often as angry Dems and independents do. The MAGA witch in the governor's mansion almost lost her seat in 2018.

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Andrew's avatar
1dEdited

Agreed. It’s why I still question the trend towards the GOP for Hispanic voters. They went for Hillary big in 2016 and only started “trending” after the rural-suburb realignment was already solidly happening. Hillary built a reputation with black and Hispanic voters and got us to peak Hispanic Dem. Trump epitomes the American Dream, even though it’s false. I feel like these voters are still very elastic and are very much candidate specific and not party specific.

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michaelflutist's avatar

You mean the fake Trump of The Apprentice in particular epitomizes the American dream, or is there another element of his propaganda that does so? Because as you said, it's fake. He instead inherited a huge amount of money and assets and squandered it.

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bpfish's avatar

Iowa is likely to be affected heavily, and in multiple ways, by the tariffs and decimation of the federal government. We've seen certain state legislature and House races becoming competitive again. Likely nominee Rob Sand has won statewide twice, although by small margins. I think it starts as Leans Republican, but I suspect it will move to Toss-Up status by the time the race settles later this year.

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Andrew's avatar

In MN, we have Farmfest and it’s a required campaign stop for Gov or Senate candidates with there being a debate/forum for them against their GOP opponent. The Star Tribune has their usual article about how it goes and the common theme is farmers are the toughest constituents bc you damn well better know the price of sugar beets and corn as of yesterday. You need to show up memorized on a whole lot of recent numbers and fit them into your answers at the candidate forum.

This is what legendarily took down our 2006 gubernatorial candidate. Political analysis says it’s untrue and it’s because the gov candidate called some media person a Republican whore a week before Election Day. But, that meltdown probably happened bc the Lt Gov candidate said she didn’t know what E85 is the week before that. E85 was “the new revolutionary” thing where we could substitute gasoline to fill our cars with mostly corn. I heard way more about that blunder of epic proportions vs the Gov candidate being mad about it. How did she not know about corn substituting gasoline?

All of this resulted in the GOP winning their only MN statewide office in 2006, which they haven’t done again since. They sneaked on by in a big Dem wave bc we imploded over corn and we still had a bullshit Independence Party that mostly stole votes from us.

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MPC's avatar

I think it increases, probably not by much. By the time the 2026 midterms roll around next year, Iowan farmers are going to be hurting big time from the Trump tariffs. It doesn't matter how much money he throws at them.

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bpfish's avatar

I think her not running definitely increases Dems chances. Whoever the GOP nominates will be tied at the hip to the tariffs and DOGE, whether they like it or not. Reynolds has managed to distance herself from Trump a fair amount over the years and endorsed DeSantis, so she may be less weighed down by the backlash at the federal level than a new nominee will be.

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Mark's avatar

Could be that history will repeat itself with the last event that triggered a realignment toward Democrats in Iowa....a farm crisis.

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Zero Cool's avatar

That is quite possible! Iowa is mainly a farm-based state.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

The suspect arrested for torching a part of Governor Shapiro's home said he planned to beat Shapiro with a hammer if he saw him: https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2025/04/pennsylvania-governor-mansion-arson-attack-hammer-shapiro/ It's like Paul Pelosi again, but also potentially a religious hate crime. They had the Seder the night before the fire.

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MPC's avatar

It is definitely a religious hate crime. The suspect needs to have the book thrown at him.

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Paleo's avatar

How do you know? Simply because it was the first night of Passover? You’d need more evidence than that.

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MPC's avatar

The timing of the attack, the religion of the governor and his family... it's circumstantial. The suspect isn't stupid, he chose that day for a reason.

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Paleo's avatar

And you know that for a fact? That he chose that day for that reason.

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Kildere53's avatar

100%. The fact that it happened during Passover like this makes it obvious.

Anyone who claims that this isn't an antisemitic hate crime is someone who should never be paid attention to, about anything, ever again.

And this really isn't a difficult argument to make. I mentioned this to several conservative-leaning friends of mine at work, and they quickly accepted it. (They had read about the incident, but they hadn't realized that the Governor of PA is Jewish.)

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PollJunkie's avatar

That's most likely but from what I saw from images in social media, he hated democrats, he hated maga, he liked libertarian and gun memes and had a history of violent threats with images in which he throttled guns in a menacing way. The state of Pennsylvania had seized his house which also might have been the cause.

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ArcticStones's avatar

American mainstream news media need to ask three highly relevant questions:

1.) What is Cody Balmer’s background?

2) How was Cody Balmer radicalized, and by whom?

3) Why is Trump remaining rather silent?

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Diogenes's avatar

Balmer has admitted to "harboring hatred" toward Governor Shapiro. He also has a history of expressing animosity toward Joe Biden and his supporters. He posted: “Biden supporters shouldn’t exist. Where were you his first run? Well aware of the trash he is.” In 2016, Balmer pleaded guilty to forgery and theft. He is still facing trial on a 2023 assault charge. Trump today is too busy gloating over his refusal to retrieve an innocent man he abducted and sent to a hellish Salvadoran prison.

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Guy's avatar

Balmer seemed to hate both parties equally, from what I heard.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Some kinda dirtbag cynic.

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Diogenes's avatar

Balmer expressed his disdain for Democrats several times on social media, but where is the evidence of any animosity toward Republicans?

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Guy's avatar

He shared memes criticizing Trump on social media too.

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Diogenes's avatar

I haven't seen any reporting on that.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Where the Hell was security? This is incomprehensible, and I hope every other level of government throughout the country is doing a much better job than this! Whoever was supposed to be in charge needs to be fired!

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Andrew's avatar

Seeing a picture of him was unsettling. Another creepy looking straight white guy.

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Justin Gibson's avatar

Re-upping from the Weekend Open Thread:

The Haskell Free Library and Opera House (Bibliothèque et salle d'opéra Haskell)-- which straddles Derby Line, Vermont, USA and Stanstead, Québec, Canada-- is caught between the crosshairs of Trump’s insane feud with Canada, as the Canadian entrance is being cut off.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/13/us-canada-border-library

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

CO-08. Not sure how to feel about Caraveo giving it another go. I was kind of surprised she won in 2022 in the first place but will see who runs in the primary and how they acquit themselves. I'd like it if Manny Rutinel had a little more electoral experience. It may be that 2026 is a terrible year for Rs and Evans is doomed either way but another Caraveo run makes me nervous at least at the start.

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John Carr's avatar

I’d like someone who maybe has a better chance to hold that seat going forward. Caraveo barely ran ahead of Harris.

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Andrew's avatar

I don’t think that’s much of a negative. With ticket-splitting becoming a relic, this should be more of an expectation than a sign that they’re not a good candidate. And she only had one cycle to build up any sort of incumbency advantage which is hard to do bc not enough ticket-splitting.

Reps. Craig and Davids have a done great job at insulating themselves but they first got elected in 2018.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I take it, you don't think she's a very effective candidate? How come?

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AnthonySF's avatar

Her electoral history in the district

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

Her electoral history is most of it. She underperformed the top of the ticket in 22 and just matched it in 2024 winning 48.4 and 48.2% each time (Harris got 47.7 in the district). Meanwhile Adam Frisch and Trisha Calvarese way out ran Harris in 24 so I don't buy this idea that it's impossible to do so. I think her stupid vote on immigration condemning Harris was well stupid (https://coloradonewsline.com/2024/07/30/caraveo-criticized-harris-immigration). You can distance yourself on immigration without jumping on an R resolution condemning Harris as VP. Her work in the legislature on thc products showed a tone deafness to young voters and businesses in her district. She can still win even with a not great campaign because the 8th is a marginal district that would be the first to fall in any kind of Dem year so she may not need to overperform the top of the ticket but I don't see any unique talent/ability with her either and would prefer someone new if they can prove themselves in the primary.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Thanks for that comprehensive answer.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

Thanks. I'm not too set in stone on this if she runs a great campaign this cycle and outperforms this time around great I just don't have a lot of trust that will happen based on the last two.

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Andrew's avatar

In a district that went from Biden to Trump, is 39% Hispanic and was likely seeing a polling erosion amongst those voters, tacking to the right on immigration as Hispanic voters overall were doing as well made sense.

However, voting against your own party is rarely a winner.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Maybe Caraveo and Evans will become the next Shea-Porter and Guinta...

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Not surprised but I'd rather she didn't. I'm tired of people getting by in politics because of their last name more than anything else.

And speaking only for myself, I'm keeping to my extreme displeasure with Shaheen over the CR bill and will transfer that displeasure to people trying to get into politics due to their relation to her.

I doubt the voters of NH-01 will share my views though. Absent any polling and such I'd assume she's a strong favorite for the primary if she does run.

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slothlax's avatar

Nepo babies are the reason we have DEI policies in the first place. Just sayin'

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slothlax's avatar

Lawler would be crazy not to run for governor, he probably has a better chance to win that race than his House reelection.

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Paleo's avatar

Maybe. Probably pretty close.

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michaelflutist's avatar

That seems hard to believe, but if Hochul is really the Democratic candidate, it's not impossible. I'd have to think, though, that he'd have a better shot as an incumbent.

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Tigercourse's avatar

I'd give him better odds as the incumbent in his house seat. But we don't know who his opponent will be so it's very early.

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slothlax's avatar

Even if he does win that uphill battle, he'll almost certainly be in the House minority. What's the fun in that? Hochul is a weak incumbent and if she loses a primary to someone from her left Lawler is perfectly positioned to take advantage of that. He just beat an incumbent liberal Democrat in a highly competitive congressional race that was broadcast all over the NYC media market last year.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Hochul isn't losing a primary or the general.

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Steve Walzer's avatar

I think there's a possibility (albeit small) that she loses a primary. In this environment, there's no way she loses the general. I think slothlax's scenario is remotely (very remotely) possible - that she loses the primary to a DSA-type Dem and Lawler beats that person in the general. Unlikely, but possible...

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slothlax's avatar

The primary is beside the point, I don't think Hochul is a strong candidate in the general election to begin with.

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Steve Walzer's avatar

She may or may not be a strong candidate, but there's no way she loses the general in this electoral environment. I'd say that pretty much any D, short of someone like Jamal Bowman, is a virtual certainty to win the general election and even he would likely be at least favored in the general.

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Tigercourse's avatar

I believe if he serves 5 years in congress he is eligible for a pension. That's one reason to stick around for another term. As Kevin H. says, it's really unlikely she's going to lose a primary. Maybe, maybe (but probably not) if James stepped in, but she'd cream Torres and beat Delgado, who isn't stupid enough to run.

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slothlax's avatar

It would be weird if Delgado didn't run. Otherwise, what's the point of not running for reelection as LG?

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Tigercourse's avatar

In NY LG's quitting because they can't work with the governor is a time honored tradition. They rarely then run against them and I don't think any have gotten close. Cuomo had a LG who quit, Pataki had an LG who hated him, Hugh Carey had an LG who couldn't work with him, as I recall.

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slothlax's avatar

I don't think Delgado gave up a promising career in the House just to be a one term LG.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

NY state voted ~13 points to the left of the nation in 2024. Even though that is a stark drop from 2020, it's still a huge hill to climb. NY-17 voted 50-49 for Harris in the same year.

Granted, Hochul is weaker than Harris and voters are more willing to vote for the opposing party for local offices. At the same time, 2026 is very likely to be a better year for us than 2024 was and that 12 point gap is not trivial.

Is Hochul so weak as to bridge the entire gap from double digit victory to a loss? I'm skeptical, even though she is definitely one of our weakest and most disappointing major officials.

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slothlax's avatar

Considering that she only beat Lee Zeldin by five points in 2022 (weird that you didn't mention the most relevant data point), yes I think she is weak enough to bridge that gap.

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Paleo's avatar

2022 was a really bad year for New York Democrats. But she’s now been in office longer and has collected more barnacles. Lawler is arguably a more appealing candidate than Zeldin. Yet if 2026 is as favorable for Democrats in New York as 2022 was unfavorable, she’ll likely win.

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slothlax's avatar

Now that the legislature is firmly in Democratic hands, New York has become more like a New England state where a vote for governor is essentially a referendum on giving Democrats complete control.

Hochul doesn't inspire the base and her crossover appeal is meh too. It's not an exact comparison, but I get vibes of Shannon O'Brien losing to Romney in 2002.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

That's a fair point and yes a relevant data point.

But IMO I don't think it changes my conclusion. She won by 5 in a neutral-ish, slightly bad for us, year. Based on other data it seems that the NY/NJ slide had already started for us by then rather than being new to 2024. If 2026 is a better year for us as well hope it should be more than enough to cancel out the potential penalty of a stronger opponent.

It's not impossible that she would lose to him, but I do stand by it being unlikely, and a harder path for him than reelection to the house.

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slothlax's avatar

I think running to defend Trump in a 50/50 House district would be harder than running against complete Democratic control of New York state government.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

"Michael Bennet should resign his U.S. Senate seat to run for governor (Denver Post editorial)

Bennet is wrong to time his departure in hopes of naming his replacement

Bennet says he can easily manage representing Colorado and running a campaign; after all, he’s done it three times before in his bids for re-election. But we see a difference. Incumbents finish off their term — no matter the length — with a campaign blitz that often has an uncontested primary to a general election. Bennet will be pock marking the middle of his term with a grueling primary against Attorney General Phil Weiser in June 2026 and then what could prove to be a challenging general election that November.

Bennet poured salt on the wound of losing a tenured U.S. Senator Friday when he announced his plans to time his resignation so that he could fill his own vacancy were he to win."

I'd rather Bennett just stayed in the Senate but I don't have any real strong feelings on this primary. Pressure to resign the seat early and explain why he won't is the first issue with his candidacy.

https://www.denverpost.com/2025/04/14/michael-bennet-resign-governor-senate/

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Paleo's avatar

Good editorial.

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Darren Monaghan's avatar

"Challenging general election"?

Given how blue Colorado now is and the current and likely 2026 midterm environment, how does any Republican get elected dogcatcher statewide?! 💙🇺🇲

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Steve Walzer's avatar

Right? That sentence kinda invalidates the whole article. The Denver Post should know better...

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

I agree but to be fair they say "What could be a challenging general election". Even if it is not that close the logistics of being a western U.S. senator and running for governor are tough and I do think the issue of his senate seat could cause problems down the line if not in 2026.

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Burt Kloner's avatar

everything they touch turns to shit: Vance dropped the Ohio State national champ trophy today at WH....

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