Morning Digest: Indiana Republican's ad puts fake signs into hands of Democrat's supporters

Mike Braun is forced to add disclaimer admitting ad has been "digitally altered"

An excerpt of the original photo of Indiana Democrat Jennifer McCormick with supporters taken by Greg Swiercz for the South Bend Tribune (at left), alongside a manipulated version of the same photo in an ad from Republican Mike Braun.

Leading Off

IN-Gov

Republicans sunk to a new low this week to defend a seat that by all rights should never have been up for grabs: the open governorship in Indiana, a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the top job since 2000.

Republican Mike Braun began airing a false ad on Monday that manipulates a picture of supporters of Democrat Jennifer McCormick and replaces their campaign placards with phony text reading "No Gas Stoves." The spot debuted just one day after new polling showed Braun with a soft lead in this perennially red state.

That new survey, which was conducted by the Republican firm ARW Strategies for the website IndyPolitics, finds Braun leading McCormick 44-37 as Libertarian Donald Rainwater grabs 9%. (IndyPolitics' publisher, Abdul Hakim-Shabazz, unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for mayor of Indianapolis last year.)

Respondents, by contrast, favor Donald Trump 55-39, which is almost identical to Trump's 2020 showing. Other members of the GOP's statewide ticket also fare considerably better than Braun: Jim Banks leads Democrat Valerie McCray 49-35 in the contest to replace Braun as Indiana's junior U.S. senator, while Attorney General Todd Rokita outpaces Democratic challenger Destiny Wells 51-36.

While pollster Andrew Weissert told IndyPolitics that Braun "is definitely in the driver's seat," the Republican's opening offensive indicates he's not as confident. Politico's Adam Wren, who first reported the commercial, says that the spot is "part of a million-dollar ad buy." That would mark a dramatic escalation from just last week when AdImpact said that each side had reserved less than $100,000 in ad time.

Earlier this year, Indiana's Republican-run legislature passed a law that requires a continuous disclaimer to be on screen during ads that are altered in a way that "conveys a materially inaccurate depiction of the individual’s speech, appearance, or conduct as recorded in the unaltered recording." The law also includes a provision allowing victims to sue if the necessary disclaimer is absent.

The original version of Braun's ad contained no such disclaimer, but the Republican's team told Wren hours after the spot became public that an "earlier version" was mistakenly sent to TV stations and was being replaced. Braun posted a revised version that now includes the text, "Elements of this media have been digitally altered or artificially generated" during the entire ad.

But this new incarnation still features the fabricated photo of McCormick's supporters calling for banning gas stoves, even though Wren says he "can't find any evidence McCormick has ever expressed opposition to gas stoves." McCormick herself confirmed Wren's observation.

"No. I don’t care what type of stove you use," the Democrat tweeted. "I am focusing on real issues like women's reproductive freedoms, education and good paying jobs. My opponent is apparently focused on stoves."

It remains to be seen whether national Democrats will spend money on what remains a tough race to replace the Hoosier State's termed-out governor, Republican Eric Holcomb. The Democratic Governors Association did give McCormick some reason for optimism last week, though, when it released an internal poll showing Braun up just 44-41, with Rainwater grabbing 8%. A survey taken in September by Emerson College, however, placed the Republican ahead 45-34 even with Rainwater at 6.

In 2020, Rainwater took 11% of the vote, one of the highest showings by a third-party candidate in a gubernatorial race in some time. Holcomb nevertheless defeated Democrat Woody Myers in a 57-32 landslide.

Senate

MD-Sen

The pro-Democratic Win Senate, an affiliate of the influential Senate Majority PAC, is booking $1.1 million for its first major ad buy in Maryland's open Senate race, Axios' Stef Kight reported Monday.

Win Senate's allies at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, meanwhile, are running a coordinated ad buy with Angela Alsobrooks. Its new spot ties her GOP foe, former Gov. Larry Hogan, to two hardline GOP chief executives, Florida's Ron DeSantis and Texas' Greg Abbott.

"They're both Republican governors who signed extreme Republican abortion bans without exceptions for rape or incest," the narrator says, continuing, "And they both were elected with the help of Larry Hogan. Hogan pledged to do whatever they asked, raising them tens of thousands of dollars."

Polling averages from 538 show Alsobrooks ahead 48-41 while Kamala Harris leads by a far larger 62-33 margin, but Hogan's allies hope that their massive spending advantage will wipe out her advantage. AdImpact reported last week that the GOP had booked $25 million in TV time, compared to just $2.2 million from Democrats. (Win Senate had not yet entered the fray at the time of AdImpact's report.)

The biggest player on the GOP side by far is Maryland's Future, a super PAC funded in part by conservative megadonor Ken Griffin. Its newest commercial attacks Alsobrooks over a recent CNN report saying she benefited from tax breaks she didn't qualify for. The Democrat's campaign told the network she wasn't previously aware of the mistake and was working to "make any necessary payment."

Senate Leadership Fund

The pro-GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund has booked an additional $67.5 million in ad time in three Democratic-held seats, all of which are key presidential battlegrounds. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, SLF's largest new reservation is the $28 million it will spend against Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey. The outfit has also booked another $22.5 million in Michigan's open Senate race and $17 million more to beat Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

House

CA-45, CA-27

The crypto-aligned super PAC Fairshake is redirecting $1 million in planned ad spending to help GOP Rep. Michelle Steel in the 45th District, funds Politico says had originally been intended to aid another California Republican, Rep. Mike Garcia. Fairshake's decision comes at a time when Steel is looking more vulnerable against Democrat Derek Tran in a historically red seat in western Orange County.

A poll that a trio of California universities released last week showed Tran edging out Steel 48-46, with Kamala Harris leading 51-43 four years after Joe Biden carried the district 52-46. Just days later, Tran piled an internal poll of his own from Tulchin Research that showed him ahead by a 47-45 margin. The GOP has yet to publicize any data of its own.

The schools, interestingly, found an identical set of results in Garcia's 27th District in northern Los Angeles County as they did in Steel's seat. Democrat George Whitesides outpaced Garcia 48-46, though Harris' 51-43 edge represented a tightening from Biden's 55-43 victory here. 

Independent Expenditures

New data tracked by The Downballot shows the two largest Republican House groups outspending their Democratic counterparts over the last week, the first time this cycle the GOP has done so over a one-week stretch. However, Democrats still enjoy an overall spending advantage to date, and they're likely to retain it through November.

Together, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund poured in $20.3 million during the past week, compared to $17.4 million for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the House Majority PAC. But so far, the two Democratic organizations have spent $48.7 million on the general election while their opposite numbers have combined for $39.8 million.

On Monday, HMP also announced a further round of new TV ad reservations, totaling about $13.5 million. All are in districts where the super PAC had already booked airtime, but overall, they mean that the two big Democratic groups have at least $241 million reserved, versus $215 million for the GOP side.

In terms of actual (rather than planned) spending, five races saw activity for the first time over the last week. These include the contests for California's Democratic-held 9th District and Iowa's Republican-held 1st District, both of which we recently covered in detail at The Downballot.

The newcomers also include three other Democratic seats: California's 47, Connecticut's 5th, and Ohio's 13th. None are surprises, though, as at least one of the major House groups (and often several) had previously booked TV time in media markets covering all of these districts.

Ballot Measures

Los Angeles County, CA Ballot

A trio of California universities have released a poll showing a 36-17 spread of Los Angeles County voters supporting a ballot measure that would create an elected county executive post and enlarge the Board of Supervisors from five members to nine. The schools—the University of Southern California, Cal Poly Pomona, and California State University, Long Beach—still find a hefty 46% plurality undecided about Measure G, however.

This is the first poll we've seen asking voters in America's largest county about the proposal, which would create one of the most powerful elected positions in the country. Measure G's proponents argue that Los Angeles County, a diverse region that's larger than 40 U.S. states, needs to overhaul its government to make it more efficient and demographically representative. Its backers include three of five current supervisors, the county Democratic Party, and the Los Angeles Times.

Critics, though, believe that the plan is being pushed through too quickly and could divert taxpayer money from essential services. The Board's two other supervisors are opposed to Measure G, while several public safety and public worker unions have expressed skepticism about it.

Mayors & County Leaders

Buffalo, NY Mayor

Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown announced Monday that he was resigning as leader of New York's second-largest city “in the coming weeks” to head the local public gambling agency. Common Council President Christopher Scanlon, a fellow Democrat who leads the local equivalent of the city council, will take over as mayor and serve the remainder of Brown's term. The office will be up for a new four-year term next year.

Brown's departure ends a long and eventful career in Empire State politics, which includes a wild 2021 reelection campaign that attracted national attention.

Brown was elected to the state Senate in 2000 after defeating an incumbent in the primary, an accomplishment that made him the state's first-ever Black senator outside the New York City area. He made history again five years later when he became Buffalo's first Black mayor and later served as state party chair for several years.

Brown sought an unprecedented fifth term in 2021 but faced an unexpectedly tough intraparty challenge from first-time candidate India Walton, a nurse and self-described socialist. Walton, who called for defunding the police, faulted the incumbent for his handling of police brutality complaints. She also argued that Brown had done a poor job addressing the pandemic and was backed by "billionaire" donors.

Walton scored a shocking 51-46 victory in the primary, a result that appeared to set her on a glide path to victory in this dark blue city. Brown, though, decided to wage a write-in campaign to keep his post, and his support from influential GOP donors ensured he remained well-funded.

While the mayor had largely ignored Walton for most of the primary, he was determined to put the focus on her during the general election. Brown aired ads starring police officers claiming that Walton's plans would result in huge layoffs for the force, a charge she vehemently denied.

The incumbent also zeroed in on Walton's 2014 arrest after a dispute with a co-worker, which eventually resulted in a judge ordering Walton to stay away from her colleague for six months; Walton claimed she'd been a victim of her co-worker's bullying.

While Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand endorsed Walton late in the race, other high-profile Empire State Democrats, including Gov. Kathy Hochul, stayed neutral. Walton's ads tried to make Brown's GOP support into a liability and argued he'd failed to "make things better" during his 15 years in office. Her pitch failed to break through with the larger general election electorate, though, as Brown's write-in campaign beat her 59-40.

Obituaries

Winfield Dunn

Tennessee Republican Winfield Dunn, whose victory at the polls in 1970 made him the state's first Republican governor in over half a century, died Saturday at the age of 97.

State law at the time prohibited Dunn from seeking a second consecutive term in 1974 (the state constitution was amended a few years after his tenure ended), but he tried to reclaim his old office in 1986. 

Dunn, though, struggled against Democrat Ned McWherter, the speaker of the state House, in part because of the decisions he'd made during his stint as governor. Most notably, GOP Rep. Jimmy Quillen, who represented a congressional district in ancestrally Republican East Tennessee, still resented Dunn for vetoing funding for a proposed new medical school in the area. While the legislature had overridden Dunn, Quillen's stubborn neutrality weakened Dunn in this crucial region and helped power McWherter to a 54-46 victory.

You can find out much more about Dunn's long career, which coincided with the GOP's ascendance in this once-Democratic state, from both the Tennessee secretary of state and The Tennessean's obituary.

Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: Victory Insights (R): Rick Scott (R-inc): 45, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 44 (47-45 Trump)

• NC-Gov: East Carolina University: Josh Stein (D): 50, Mark Robinson (R): 33 (49-47 Trump) (Aug.: 47-41 Stein)

• CA Ballot: California Elections and Policy Poll: Raise minimum wage measure: Yes: 43, No: 41 (58-36 Harris) 

• CA Ballot: CEPP: Rent control measure: Yes: 37, No: 33

• CA Ballot: CEPP: Expand felony charges measure: Yes: 58, No: 19

• FL Ballot: Victory Insights (R): Marijuana amendment: Yes: 54, No: 29 (Needs 60% to pass)

• FL Ballot: Victory Insights (R): Abortion amendment: Yes: 50, No: 29 (Needs 60% to pass)

• Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney: CEPP: Nathan Hochman: 44, George Gascón (inc): 20

The California Elections and Policy Poll is jointly conducted by three schools, the University of Southern California, Cal Poly Pomona, and California State University, Long Beach.

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D) (in Spanish)

• FL-Sen: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - anti-Rick Scott (R-inc)

• MI-Sen: Mike Rogers (R)

• NV-Sen: Win It Back PAC (Club for Growth affiliate) - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc)

• OH-Sen: Bernie Moreno (R) - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc)

• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) and the DSCC - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc)

• NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D)

• NH-Gov: Kelly Ayotte (R) - anti-Joyce Craig (D)

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc)

• CA-22: Rudy Salas (D)

• CA-47: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Dave Min (D)

• CA-49: Matt Gunderson (R) - anti-Mike Levin (D-inc)

• KS-03: Sharice Davids (D-inc) - anti-Prasanth Reddy (R)

• ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MT-01: Ryan Zinke (R-inc) - anti-Monica Tranel (D) (here and here); Tranel - anti-Zinke

• NE-02: NRCC - anti-Tony Vargas (D)

• NJ-07: Sue Altman (D) - anti-Tom Kean (R-inc)

• OR-04: Val Hoyle (D-inc)