Morning Digest: Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire institution, will retire from the Senate

Democrats will have the chance to defend her seat in what's likely to be a favorable year

New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (credit: Jeanne Shaheen campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

NH-Sen

Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced Wednesday that she would not seek a fourth term representing New Hampshire, a move that sets off an open-seat race in this light-blue state.

The 78-year-old incumbent's decision to step aside gives Democrats the opportunity to defend her seat in a midterm election that's likely to be favorable to her party, and two big names have already surfaced as possible successors.

Multiple media outlets report that both the state's U.S. House members, Reps. Chris Pappas and Maggie Goodlander, are considering seeking a promotion. The Boston Globe's James Pindell adds that Pappas has informed people he "intends to run."

Both representatives have extensive connections. Pappas would be the first openly gay man to serve in the upper chamber, and an unnamed colleague predicts to Axios he would have "LGBT support nationally." Goodlander, by contrast, is a former high-level Biden administration official, and she raised a large amount of money for her first bid for office last year.

Former Rep. Annie Kuster, meanwhile, told Axios she'd "take a serious look if Pappas does not run." Kuster, who is 68, retired last year and was succeeded by Goodlander.

On the Republican side, former Gov. Chris Sununu unexpectedly showed some interest in running just a day before Shaheen announced her departure. He told the conservative Washington Times, "I have not ruled it out completely, but folks in Washington have asked me to think about it and to consider it, and that is just kind of where I am." Sununu was a top target for GOP Senate recruiters in 2020 and 2022, but he disappointed Republicans by seeking reelection both times.

Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, by contrast, has spent months publicly contemplating a second Senate campaign in his adopted state of New Hampshire. Brown, who lost a close 2014 race to Shaheen, responded to his old rival's retirement announcement by touting himself as an ally of Donald Trump, who lost the state 51-48 last year—the third time in a row he failed to carry New Hampshire.

More Republicans could also step forward, including developer Jack Franks, who expressed interest in running back in January. Pindell, though, writes that some hardliners believe that both Brown and Franks aren't "Trumpy" enough and have proposed former state Rep. Lou Garguilo and former state party chair Steve Stepanek as alternatives.

Pindell adds that unnamed people are also encouraging a bid by former White House official Matt Mowers, who unsuccessfully ran for the House twice.

He also mentions former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who beat Mowers in the 2022 primary before losing to Pappas, as possibilities. Pindell says that, while "few expect" Lewandowski to leave his role working for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, he'd likely get Trump's backing if he did decide to campaign for the Senate.

Gov. Kelly Ayotte, though, unequivocally said she wasn't interested in returning to the Senate this cycle. Ayotte, who lost reelection to Democrat Maggie Hassan in 2016, won last year's race to replace the retiring Sununu, and she's up for a new term next year. (New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the only states that still elect their governors to two-year terms.)

Shaheen's eventual replacement will succeed a Granite State institution whose political career began five decades ago when she was a county organizer for Jimmy Carter's dark horse 1976 presidential campaign.

Shaheen became a prominent behind-the-scenes figure in local presidential politics at a time when the Republicans were racking up seemingly nonstop victories in state elections.

The GOP flipped the state's U.S. Senate seats in 1978 and 1980, while Republican John Sununu's 1982 victory over Gov. Hugh Gallen set him on the path to becoming George H.W. Bush's influential chief of staff years later. (Sununu is also the father of Chris Sununu.) It would eventually fall to Shaheen to break both of these long winning streaks.

Shaheen ran for office for the first time in 1990 when she won a seat in the state Senate, but she eyed a much bigger prize in 1996 when she sought to become the first woman to be elected governor of New Hampshire. After she won her primary without any serious opposition, the long-dominant GOP at last began to struggle.

Former state Board of Education Chairman Ovide Lamontagne captured his party's nomination in an upset, but he alienated many voters with his ardent opposition to abortion rights and support for teaching creationism. Shaheen successfully contrasted herself against Lamontagne by pitching herself as a pragmatist, and she won over the state's famously tax-averse electorate by pledging not to raise or implement new taxes.

The popularity of both Shaheen and President Bill Clinton powered a Democratic revival that astounded political observers: Gallen's former chief of staff told the New York Times just before Election Day, "For the first time in history, this is a two-party state." Shaheen won in a 57-40 blowout as Clinton easily took New Hampshire's four electoral votes. But Sen. Bob Smith's tight reelection win that same year proved that the GOP was by no means vanquished.

Shaheen decisively secured reelection in 1998, and her popularity in this swing state helped her land a spot on Al Gore's running mate shortlist in 2000. Gore ultimately picked Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman over Shaheen, who publicly said she'd reject any such offer.

The governor went on to win a competitive reelection contest as George W. Bush narrowly carried New Hampshire, an outcome that gave him just enough electoral votes to take the White House after the U.S. Supreme Court halted the Florida recount. It also marked the last time a Republican won the state in a presidential election.

Shaheen opted to challenge Smith for the Senate in 2002 rather than run for governor again, but that matchup did not come to pass. Rep. John Sununu—another son of the former governor—denied renomination to Smith, who had temporarily abandoned the GOP to run for president as an independent.

Bush's popularity in the aftermath of 9/11 and the lead-up to the Iraq War helped propel Sununu to a 51-46 victory over Shaheen in what proved to be her only loss at the ballot box. Multiple Republicans were later implicated for their involvement in a plot to jam Democratic phone lines to disrupt the pro-Shaheen get-out-the-vote operation, with several sentenced to prison.

Shaheen became the director of the influential Harvard Institute of Politics following that defeat, but she was anything but a spent force in New Hampshire. The former governor sought a rematch against Sununu in 2008, and this time, Bush's sinking approval ratings and the strength of Barack Obama's presidential campaign made her the favorite.

Shaheen prevailed 52-45, and she again made history as the first woman to represent New Hampshire in the Senate. That win also made her the first woman in American history to be elected both governor and senator.

In 2014, though, Shaheen faced a tough battle to keep her seat against her one-time colleague Scott Brown, who had moved north following his loss to Elizabeth Warren back in Massachusetts in 2012. The longtime Granite State politician portrayed her opponent as an interloper who only viewed his new state as a "consolation prize," and she held on by a 51-48 margin in an ugly year for Democrats.

Republicans failed to recruit a strong challenger in 2020 after Chris Sununu took a pass, and Shaheen won her final campaign 57-41. Her decision to step aside this cycle also sets her up for one more milestone: Quinn Yeargain notes that Shaheen's retirement makes her the first Democratic senator from New Hampshire to voluntarily leave office since voters began directly electing U.S. senators more than a century ago.

The knee-jerk reaction by Beltway pundits to the news above was to declare it devastating for Democrats. But at The Downballot, we have a deeper understanding of political trends and can offer much more sophisticated coverage. If you value nuanced analysis over quotidian hot takes, please consider supporting us by upgrading to a paid subscription today.

The Downballot Podcast

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Senate

MN-Sen

Former TV anchor Liz Collin, who'd been mentioned as a possible Republican candidate for Minnesota's open Senate seat, declined to rule out a bid when recently asked by a reporter. However, says the Daily Agenda, Collin "has told others privately she is not running."

WY-Sen

Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis is "gearing up" to seek a second term, a spokesperson tells Cowboy State Daily's Leo Wolfson. While there wasn't much if any indication that Lummis, 70, might retire, Wolfson hints that GOP Gov. Mark Gordon might have run for her post had she decided to call it quits. Instead, he says, Gordon may be more inclined to run for a third term, though he'd first have to challenge Wyoming's term-limits laws in court.

Morning Digest: Congresswoman could make Wyoming a Freedom Caucus 'case study'

Governors

SC-Gov, SC-Sen

Far-right Rep. Ralph Norman keeps vacillating over which statewide office he might seek next year. Norman now tells Fox News that he's "seriously considering" a bid for South Carolina's open governorship, while the same article suggests he's no longer interested in going after fellow Republican Lindsey Graham, saying he "previously mulled" a Senate bid.

When we last checked in on Norman in January, though, he reiterated that he was looking at a challenge to Graham—something he previously said in November, when he also suggested he might run for governor. Given Norman's unquenchable impulse to make trouble for his own party, though, it wouldn't be surprising if he sat out both races and simply sought reelection to his safely red 5th District.

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House

IA-03

Three Democratic state lawmakers tell KCRG's Dave Price that they're considering running against Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, who won reelection to southwestern Iowa's 3rd District by a narrow 52-48 margin last year.

The trio includes state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, state House Minority leader Jennifer Konfrst, and state Rep. Austin Baeth. Trone Garriott was just reelected to a four-year term in November, so she would not have to give up her seat to run, while the two others would.

Baeth, a physician, suggested he previously was not interested in a congressional bid, telling Price that it would mean sacrificing time with his small children and giving up his medical practice. But his explanation for his change of heart should buoy Democratic recruiters seeking out candidates in all corners of the country.

"To sacrifice all that for a generally shitty job in Congress is tough," Baeth said. "But it's an important shitty job, and this particular seat may be key to revoking Trump's congressional rubber stamp and getting our country back on track." He added, "If the stakes weren't so high, I'd be a hard pass," but said he'd "make a decision soon."

Judges

WI Supreme Court

Wisconsin's pivotal April 1 race for the state Supreme Court has already broken spending records, reports WisPolitics, as a new poll from supporters of conservative candidate Brad Schimel finds the contest tied.

So far, both sides have collectively spent $59 million in the contest to succeed retiring liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, exceeding the $56 million spent in 2023, when Judge Janet Protasiewicz's victory flipped the court to liberal control for the first time in 15 years.

Conservatives have the edge to date, pouring in $33 million on behalf of Schimel, a former Republican state attorney general, while progressives have deployed $26 million to boost Judge Susan Crawford as they seek to defend their narrow 4-3 majority.

As of a week ago, though, progressives had the edge in ad spending, according to AdImpact, by a $17 million to $12 million margin. WisPolitics confirms that this advantage remains intact, reporting that Crawford and her allies are "currently running ads more frequently on broadcast TV than the other side," based both on data from AdImpact and "numbers shared by a media buying source."

Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: Despite Musk, progressives are winning the ad war in Wisconsin

Despite their deficit in paid communications, Schimel's backers at Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce are arguing the race is deadlocked, sharing a new survey from GOP pollster OnMessage that shows Schimel and Crawford taking 47% apiece. Polls of the race have been rare, but late February numbers from RMG Research on behalf of a conservative group found Crawford up 42-35.

Mayors & County Leaders

Detroit, MI Mayor

Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig announced Wednesday that he'd run to become the first Republican to lead this heavily Democratic city in over 60 years. Craig, who argued in his launch that his ties to the GOP would give Detroiters "a direct link to the White House," at least won't face the burden of having his party affiliation listed on the ballot in this officially nonpartisan race—if, that is, he makes it that far.

Craig, who was appointed police chief by outgoing Mayor Mike Duggan, ran for governor of Michigan in 2022 and originally looked like the front-runner to take on Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer. But things began going wrong for him from the jump when protesters prevented him from delivering his announcement speech, events that foreshadowed the chaos that was to come.

Craig's next few months were defined by high staff turnover and heavy spending, but he still seemed like the favorite to capture the GOP nod. Those hopes vanished overnight, though, when election officials disqualified Craig and four other contenders from the primary ballot after they fell victim to a fraudulent signature scandal and failed to turn in enough valid petitions. The former chief decided to wage a write-in campaign he blustered was "going to win," but he ended up taking just 2%.

Craig sought redemption the next year by launching a campaign for the Senate, but he failed to obtain it. The Republican parted ways with both his campaign manager and deputy manager after just 17 days and struggled to raise money, though at least this time, he was the one who made the call to end his campaign after just four-and-a-half months on the trail. Characteristically, however, Craig began talking about running for mayor at the same time he was pulling the plug on his Senate effort.